The Path to Sustainable Yield: An Industry Perspective SACHS.pdf · The Path to Sustainable Yield:...

Dr. Robb FraleyChief Technology OfficerMonsanto Company

The Path to Sustainable Yield: An Industry Perspective

Eric Sachs, Ph.D.Monsanto Company

SM

12th ICABR ConferenceThe Future of Agricultural Biotechnology:

Creative Destruction, Adoption, or Irrelevance?

Ravello 12-14 June, 2008

Addressing Agricultural and Societal Challenges Will Depend on Multiple Technologies and Commitment to Research and Development

Lack of reliable food source, malnutrition Limited

arable landInsufficientfresh water

Demand for food, feed and fuel

Climate ChangeSoildegradation

The Bottom Line: Continued Yield Improvement is Needed to Supply More Grain to a Growing World

AGRICULTURE IS NOW AT THE CENTER OF MANY OF SOCIETY’S DEBATES

• DOING MORE WITH LESS IN AGRICULTURE IS A KEY COMPONENT TO RESOLVING THE DEBATE

• WITH CORN AS THE EXAMPLE, WE EXPECT TO DOUBLE YIELDS BY 2030• IT WILL TAKE BREEDING, BETTER AGRONOMIC MANAGEMENT PRACTICES

AND BIOTECHNOLOGY TO MAKE IT POSSIBLE• MONSANTO WON’T BE THE ONLY CONTRIBUTOR• PROVIDING MORE PRODUCTIVITY TO A GROWING WORLD WILL HELP TO

ADDRESS THE A NEED FOR:• Global food security• Sustainable biodiversity• Accessible water• Energy• Economic success

TECHNOLOGY HELPS ADDRESS THE CHALLENGES OF GROWING MORE

Without continuous yield increases, US exports of major crops could be severely

restrained, requiring major supply and demand adjustments in the rest of the world”

Gehlhar & Somwaru (2007) Food, Bioenery, and Trade: An Economy-Wide Assessment of Renewable Fuel Substitution. USDA-ERS Market and Trade Division

4 Key Agricultural Sustainability Imperatives

FOOD: Deliver twice as much food in 2050 as is produced today.

ENVIRONMENT: Reduce environmental impacts by getting more from each unit of land, water and energy devoted to crop production.

CLIMATE CHANGE: Adapt to climate change by improving yield stability in the face of climate stress.

ECONOMIC SUCCESS: Deliver economic benefits for all farmers, small and large.

GM Crops Already are Improving Global Agriculture

Commercial ExperienceOn Over 1.7 Billion Acres

Increase of 12%, 12.3 million hectares (30 million acres), between 2006 and 2007.

Source: Clive James, 2007.

GLOBAL AREA OF BIOTECH CROPSMillion Hectares (1996 to 2007)

23 Biotech Crop Countries

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

TotalIndustrialDeveloping

Increase of 12%, 12.3 million hectares (30 million acres), between 2006 and 2007.

Source: Clive James, 2007.

GLOBAL AREA OF BIOTECH CROPSMillion Hectares (1996 to 2007)

23 Biotech Crop Countries

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

TotalIndustrialDeveloping

• Proven economic and environmental benefits

• Solid record of safety

• Promising future benefits from new products and technologies

Source: ISAAA (International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications) & Monsanto estimates

Biotech Crops Bring Benefits to Agriculture, Growers and the Environment

THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF BIOTECHNOLOGY (1996-2006)

Economic Return$6.9B global form income benefit in 2006$33.8B cumulative net returns at the farm level

Productivity43% of farm income benefit due to increased yields2/3 of yield gains due to Bt crops, 1/3 due to HT cropsIncreased by 8.3B lbs in the U.S. in 2005

Pesticide Reduction641M lbs, 7.8% reduction

~ 40% of pesticide ai applied in the EUEnvironmental Footprint reduced by 15.4%

Greenhouse Gas EmissionsReduced 14.8B Kg Carbon Dioxide

Emissions in 2006Equal to removing 6.6 M cars

from the road for a year

Source: Graham Brookes, 2008, www.agbioforum.org ; NCFAP report, 2006

Pesticides registered by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency will not cause unreasonable adverse effects to man or the environment when used in accordance with label directions.

Corn Herbicide Use in the US

THE IMPACT OF BIOTECHNOLOGY ON US CORN

Corn Insecticide Use in the US


Corn Nitrogen Use Efficiency in the US


Maximum Yield Gains Will Depend on Both Breeding and Biotechnology Development Paths

DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS

•

PHASE II PHASE III PHASE IVPHASE IDISCOVERY

**BREEDING****BREEDING**

BIOTECHNOLOGY

MARKERS

ELITE GERMPLASM

IT PLATFORM

ANALYTICS

COMMERCIAL

GENOMICS

Strong Genetics and Agronomic Improvements have Led to Sustained Improvement in US Corn Yield

U.S. Average Corn Yields

DOUBLE CROSS

SINGLE CROSS

BIOTECH

SOURCE: March 2006. Crop Science. Ref# 46:528-543

An Opportunity Exists to Significantly Improve Productivity in Lower Yielding Regions ● Brazil (12.7 M Ha), Eastern Europe (9.8 M Ha), China (24 M Ha) and Mexico (7.6 M

Ha) all have large corn acreage and yields significantly below US averages

● Increasing productivity of lower yielding regions could yield >150 million tonnes/yr of corn without bringing new land into production

Exporters Corn area (M Ha) Production (M tonnes)

Yield (tonnes/Ha)

% US yield Growth potential (M tonnes)

Argentina 2.3 15.1 6 69 1.4Brazil 12.7 45.1 4 38 44.3

Total 15.0 60.2

EtOH producersChina 24.8 123.3 5 53 51.4South Africa 3.4 9.9 3 31 14.3Western Europe 3.4 28.7 8 90Eastern Europe 9.8 40.9 4 44 28.3Canada 1.1 9.2 8 86Mexico 7.6 21.2 3 30 32.4

Total 50.2 233.3 172.0

Color codeYield >75% of USYield 50-75% of USYield <50% of US

Growth potential – Yield increase (million tonnes/yr) if yield is raised to 75% of US average

Unfortunately Maize Yields Continue to Lag in Central Europe

Flooding (1998-2005) Maize grain yields (2000 – 2006)

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

Spai

n

Italy

Ger

man

y

Fran

ce

Hun

gary

Turk

ey

Bul

garia

Rom

ania

Yiel

d (to

nnes

/ha)

European Environment Agency

Drought stressed Hungarian maize field

Source: EuroStat

Due to a combination of farming practices (limited drainage, low inputs, open pollinated corn) and variable weather (heat, flooding and drought)

USDA

Agronomic and Genetic Improvements Work Together

BREEDING HAS PROBABLY CONTRIBUTED SLIGHTLY MORE

Several studies have shown that about 40-50% of U.S. corn yield gain since the 1930s is due to changes in management, such as increases in N fertilizer & higher

plant densities, while the other 50-60% is due to changes in corn genotype.

Management Genotype

agctcagttgatccaa

acctcaattgatcgaa

SOURCE: “Heterosis: Feeding People and Protecting Natural Resources” Donald N. Duvick

Advances Assisting in Protecting and Boosting Yields

Breeding Advances and Agronomic Practice Improvements Will Continue to Increase Yield

Yiel

d (b

ushe

ls p

er a

cre)

INNOVATIONS IN AG TECHNOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE VALUE CHAIN CONTRIBUTE TO YIELD GAIN

Technology Allows Nondestructive Analysis and Rapid Seed Development

BENEFITAccelerates screening for ideal product candidates. Allows the seed to be subsequently planted.

BENEFITAllows scientists to examine the inside of a seed without making an incision. Allows seed to still be planted. Important for value-added traits.

BENEFITAccelerates and automates tedious tasks. Critical for DNA fingerprinting.

ROBOTICS

SOYBEAN MEGA CHIPPER

MRI FOR COMPOSITION ANALYSIS

COMBINATION OF THIS TECHNOLOGY ALLOWS MONSANTO TO:

• Improve the efficiency of our breeding pipeline

• Push more genetics through the pipeline

WHICH RESULTS IN PRODUCTS WITH:

• Increased Yield• Improved

Agronomics• Enhanced Quality

Traits

Genetic Diversity has Enabled Rapid Average Yield Gains in DeKalb Hybrids

YIELDS OF DEKALB RM110 RELEASED FROM 2001 - 2006

Eathington et al. (2007) Crop Sci

1 8 0

1 9 0

2 0 0

2 1 0

2 2 0

2 3 0

2 4 0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Yi

eld

(bu/

ac)

16 bu/ac

And Marker-Assisted Breeding Will Continue to Accelerate the Rate of Yield Gain

MARKER-ASSISTED BREEDING HAS DOUBLED THE RATE OF BREEDING GAIN

Max grain yield has increased by 4.71 bu/acre per year

Eathington et al. (2007) Crop Sci

In Addition, There Has Been a Steady Increase in Corn Plant Density Since the 1980s

Stalk counts have increased at 200 –300 stalks/ac yr (R2

= 0.95 to 0.98)Expect planting densities of 30,000 to 35,000 K/ac by 2020 (93% seed success rate)“Objective Yield Survey” data from Ty Kalaus(USDA/NASS)

20000

25000

30000

35000

1982

1987

1992

1997

2002

2007

2012

2017

IowaIllinoisIndianaNebraska

Stal

k co

unt

(sta

lks/

ac)

As Population Increases, So Does Yield

21000 22000 23000 24000 25000 26000 27000 28000 29000

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986 1987

1988

19891990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

20002001

2002

2003

2004

2005 20062007

1996-2007

1982-1995

Conventional

Biotech Era

40 Year Drought Event*

20 Year Drought Event*

Yiel

d (b

u/a)

Population (stalks/a)* Drought Event frequency per Dr. Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois, 2008

SOURCE: Yield and stalk data courtesy of USDA

Maximum Yield Gains Will Depend on Both Breeding and Biotechnology Development Paths

DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS

•

PHASE II PHASE III PHASE IVPHASE IDISCOVERY

BREEDING

**BIOTECHNOLOGY**

MARKERS

ELITE GERMPLASM

IT PLATFORM

ANALYTICS

COMMERCIAL

GENOMICS

Stacking of Biotech Traits Helps to Reduce Stressors and Increase YieldRain Shelter Trial Corn Plot at A Monsanto Research Site

YieldGard Plus with Roundup Ready

Corn 2

YieldGard Corn Borer with Roundup Ready Corn 2 + Force® insecticide

YieldGard® Corn Borerwith Roundup Ready

Corn 2

Roundup Ready®Corn 2

HTYield = 94 bu/ac

CB Protection+HTYield = 113.7 bu/ac

Soil-applied RW Protection+CB Protection+HTYield = 150 bu/ac

RW Protection+CB Protection+HTYield = 198.1 bu/ac

Gallons of Ethanol535Pounds of Feed3,170




“Triple stacked” Hybrid Shows Superior Performance Under Drought Conditions in NE

Triple Stack InsecticideCrow’s 4290 T (RR/CRW/CB)

Competitor + Poncho 1250

Drought index at time of photo

Biotechnology Helps Improve Yield By Reducing “The Bottom End”

FOR EXAMPLE, TRIPLE STACK CORN DISTRIBUTION HAS LESS DOWNSIDE YIELD RISK

YIELD INCREASE

DUE TO PROTECTIVE

TRAITS

P < 0.0001N = 656

P < 0.0001N = 875

Yiel

d (b

u/ac

)

12 bu/ac

150

175

200

No traits Triple stack

No traitsTriple stack

2005 2006

The area to the left of the yield guarantee line measures the probability of experiencing a yield below this level.The area under the triple stack distribution (maroon) is less than the area under the non-traiteddistribution (orange) to the left of the yield guarantee.Triple stack (maroon) distribution implies a lower premium ratefor insuring against yields below the yield guarantee.

Nitrogen Use Efficiency Improved by Better Protection from Corn Rootworm Feeding

Plants grown under low N treated with insecticide (Force® 3G) or

YieldGard® rootwormGrain yield vs. applied nitrogen

untreatedInsecticideYieldGard PlusHerculex Extra

N rate (lb acre-1)

Gra

in y

ield

(bu

acre

-1)

160

180

200

220

240

0 50 100 150 200 250DKC63-81

(RR2/YGCB) Force® 3G 4.4 #/A

DKC63-74 (RR2/YGPL)

Data from Fred Below (2007)

SmartStax™ : 8-Gene Stack Under Development to Create New Value and Opportunity for Farmers

Discovery Phase 1Proof of Concept

Phase 2Early Development

Phase 3Adv. Development

Phase 4Pre-Launch

Launch

First-Ever 8-Trait Stack Being Developed to Create New Value and Opportunity for Farmers

ABOVE-GROUND INSECT PROTECTION

BELOW-GROUND INSECT PROTECTION

WEED CONTROL SYSTEM

Durability• Combining multiple traits in single seed

helps ensure sustainable insect protection and weed control year after year:

• Combined modes-of-action for insect protection

• Combined herbicide tolerant traits

Performance• Research is demonstrating that

complementary trait platforms offer superior, season-long performance, notably:

• Enhanced control of broader spectrum of insects

• Comprehensive protection against established, emerging secondary pests

• Industry’s best weed control system

SmartStax is not registered by the U.S. EPA. It is a violation of federal law to promote or sell an unregistered pesticide.

Future Traits in Monsanto’s Pipeline Will Help to Push Yield Above the 300 Bushel Per Acre Mark

YieldGard VT PRO™DROUGHT TOLERANCE I

CRWIII

NITROGEN USE EFFICIENCY

COLD TOLERANCE

YIELD I

DROUGHT TOLERANCE II

SmartStax™2010+

2008 2009

• FUTURE SUITE OF STRESS TOLERANCE TRAITS AND SECOND-GEN IMPROVEMENTS BUILD ON SMARTSTAX

• EXPECT THAT WAVE TO START AFTER THE TURN OF THE DECADE

(= )

Commercialization dependent on many factors, including successful conclusion of regulatory process

Improving Water Stress Tolerance and Yield Stability

DROUGHT-TOLERANCE COLLABORATION WITH

The Challenge• Agriculture is responsible for more than 70% of freshwater withdrawal• By 2025, Developing Countries will have ~ 300 Million MT grain deficits due to water scarcity

Drought Tolerance Product Concept• Yield improvement through water use efficiency• Yield improvement from water deficit

tolerance

Benefits• Yield Benefits and Stability• Flexibility in Water Management• Reduced Water Consumption, Cost Savings• Reduced Pressure on Fresh Water

Resources• Reduced Soil Erosion

ARABIDOPSIS

CONTROL WITH GENE

SOURCE: http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/books/water2025/water2025.pdf and http://www.unep.org/geo2000/english/0046.htm

Genetic Response Under Stress can Still be Greatly Improved

Flowering Stress

100 bu/a

Grain Fill Stress

140 bu/a

Well Watered

265 bu/a

Leads Identified in all Major Pathways Associated with Plant Water Utilization

Phase 1 Gene Leads Work To Improve the Ways in Which Plants Use Water

BUILDING A FAMILY OF GENES CONVEYING DROUGHT TOLERANCE

+ GENE A CONTROL

PLANT GROWTH UNDER DROUGHT

ROOT MASS IMPROVEMENT, LEADING TO BETTER WATER UPTAKE

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

Pos

Neg

+ GENE C

CONTROL

1 2

POLLEN - SILK DATESSILK EXPANSION

POLLEN GROWTH

25%

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

CON

TRO

L

Efficiency, in DroughtENERGY

LOSS

ENERGY

LIGHT

PHOTOSYNTHESIS EFFICIENCY

+ GENE B

+ G

ENE

D

2007 Dryland Field Tests of Lead Drought Event Demonstrates Increased Yield in Stressed Conditions




Phase 4Pre-Launch

Launch

Drought-tolerance family aimed at providing consistent yield and buffering against effects of water limitationsTargeting 8-10% yield improvement in water-stress environments

DROUGHT-TOLERANT CORN FAMILY: Lead Project COLLABORATION WITH

CONTROL HYBRID(76 BU/AC)

WITH GENE(94 BU/AC)

SUPERIOR, NE FIELD TRIALS – 2007

Water stress exposure during different stages of development can have significant effect on corn yield; Monsanto’s lead drought-tolerance trait shows a significant yield advantage compared with controls under drought stress

2007 FIELD TESTING SHOWS VISUAL PROOF OF YIELD IMPROVEMENT

Second-Generation Drought-Tolerant Corn Advances to Phase 2




Phase 4Pre-Launch

Launch

Targeting 8-10% yield improvement in water-stress environments, plus water substitution variable costs in pumped irrigation of >$100/acre

Consistent drought yield performance of top 3 events over 2 years (5 locations/year)

(All three events significant @ p≤0.10); Statistical significance determined by ANOVA (2006) or nonparametric test (2007)

DROUGHT EFFICACY FOR SECOND-GEN EVENTS

PRODUCT CONCEPT TARGET RANGE

Yiel

d D

iffe

renc

e (

%)

0EVENT 1 EVENT 2 EVENT 3 EVENT 1 EVENT 2 EVENT 3

2468

10121416

HIGHER-YIELDING ENVIRONMENT

AVG. YIELD: 166 BU/AC2007

LOWER-YIELDING ENVIRONMENT

AVG. YIELD: 53 BU/AC2006

COLLABORATION WITHDROUGHT-TOLERANT CORN FAMILY: Second-Gen Project

Higher-Yielding Corn Showed Improved Yield in 2007 U.S. Agronomic Trial




Phase 4Pre-Launch

Launch

CONCEPT IS STEP CHANGE IN YIELD POTENTIAL UNDER AVERAGE STRESS GROWING CONDITIONS

HIGHER YIELDING CORN vs. CONTROLS

AVE

RAG

E YI

ELD

AD

VAN

TAG

E(B

U/A

INCR

EASE

OV

ER C

ON

TRO

L)

EVENT 1 EVENT 2 EVENT 3

Percent yield difference vs. control

17 Locations

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

144.7% 3.8% 3.7%

PRODUCT CONCEPT YIELD BENEFIT TARGET RANGE

Statistically significant: p-value <0.05

• Top three events yield tested at 17 locations in the U.S. in 2007

• 67 additional potential commercial events will be yield tested in 2008 trials

COLLABORATION WITH

1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology fits at Monsanto's current 2007 market share in respective crops

2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country in year 2020

Field Testing of Nitrogen Use Efficiency Leads Show Yield Improvement Under Normal Nitrogen




Phase 4Pre-Launch

Launch

NITROGEN-UTILIZATION CORN FAMILY: Lead Project COLLABORATION WITH

Example of improved growth rate under very

high (32 mM) nitrogen in controlled

environment hydroponics

study

Control Gene 1, Event 1 Gene 1, Event 2

•Targets ways to use nitrogen more efficiently, exploring potential to boost yield under normal nitrogen conditions or stabilize it in low nitrogen environments

•Under normal nitrogen conditions, lead trait has demonstrated yield advantages in multiple backgrounds over multiple years

Yiel

d In

crea

se (b

u/A

)

TRIALS IN MULTIPLE HYBRID BACKGROUNDS

(16 LOC)

Bar color correlates with the specific hybrid background tested. Same bar color in different tests and different years indicates same hybrid was used.

All trials conducted under sufficient nitrogen application levels.

2006 YIELD TRIALS:SUFFICIENT N LEVELS

(37 LOC TOTAL)2007

2007 YIELD TRIALS:SUFFICIENT N LEVELS

(20 LOC TOTAL)

Statistically significant @ p≤0.10*

-2TRIALS IN MULTIPLE

HYBRID BACKGROUNDS(15 LOC)

02468

1012

* * * * * *

2005

*

2005 YIELD

TRIALS: (23 LOC TOTAL)

LEAD PERFORMANCE UNDER NORMAL NITROGEN CONDITIONS

2006

Advances Assisting in Protecting and Boosting Yields

Advanced Breeding, Better Agronomics and Biotechnology Will Maximize Gains

Yiel

d (b

ushe

ls p

er a

cre)

INNOVATIONS IN AG TECHNOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE VALUE CHAIN CONTRIBUTE TO YIELD GAIN

Accelerated Breeding Methods and New Biotech Traits Will Help to Stabilize Yield in Response to Global Warming

Africa suffers Africa suffers most due to most due to drought & drought &

low adaptive low adaptive capacitycapacity

Asian coastal Asian coastal systems systems

vulnerable, vulnerable, especially especially

megamega--deltasdeltas

Severe Severe droughtdrought

Heat and drought Heat and drought stress during stress during

summer (esp. East & summer (esp. East & South)South)

Eastern Eastern AmazoniaAmazoniabecomes becomes savannasavanna

Stress on some Stress on some cropscrops

TemperateTemperate--zone soy zone soy benefitsbenefits

Crops initially benefit

Decline expected in drought-

stressed areas

northern hemisphere land surface monthly temperatures (NOAA, 2007)

IPCCexpectedquadratic fit

moving average (7 yr)

acceleration since 1970,now 0.9°F per decade

January 2007 is first anomaly > 4°F

IPCC95% lowerbound

datum is 20th

century mean

IPCC95% upperbound

Mt. Pinatubo eruption

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030

Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

y (F

)

Impact on corn and soy• Crop maturation and maturity

– Earlier planting, accelerated seasons, and forced maturation

– Shift in maturity: US corn belt moving North– Benefits for early temperate maturities

(longer/warmer growing season)• Increased ozone toxicity on soybeanHeat and drought• Increased risks of heat/water stress to central and

southern temperate corn (South Africa, Australia and Eastern Europe)

Impact on other crops• Higher temps negatively impact yields in rice and

quality in cotton • Cotton, wheat and corn all affected by more severe

storms

Dr. Robb FraleyChief Technology OfficerMonsanto Company

The Path to Sustainable Yield: An Industry Perspective

Eric Sachs, Ph.D.Monsanto Company

SM

12th ICABR ConferenceThe Future of Agricultural Biotechnology:

Creative Destruction, Adoption, or Irrelevance?

Ravello 12-14 June, 2008

QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?

The Path to Sustainable Yield: An Industry Perspective SACHS.pdf · The Path to Sustainable Yield:...

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