The Past, Present, and Future of Supernova Cosmology...candles (and thereʼs much less trouble with...
Transcript of The Past, Present, and Future of Supernova Cosmology...candles (and thereʼs much less trouble with...
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The Past, Present, and Future of Supernova Cosmology
Robert P. Kirshner Harvard University
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Most important slide
At H-band (1.6µ) SN Ia really are standard candles (and there’s much less trouble with dust!)
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The Past
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1931: Einstein visits Mt Wilson
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Einstein & de Sitter banish Λ �in 1931 They didn’t just set Λ=0, they excluded it from their formalism! “Einstein-de Sitter” Flat, critically dense Universe Ω = 1��Always expanding, always decelerating
Λ! Hau ab!
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Λ as the source of cosmic expansion: DeSitter in 1930
Thanks to Jim Peebles
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Georges Lemaître S.J. + MIT Ph.D. “Everything happens as though the energy in vacuo would be different from zero…we associate a pressure p = -ρc2 to the density of energy ρc2 of vacuum. This is essentially the meaning of the cosmological constant λ.” PNAS 20, 12 (1934)
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Charlie Kowal Note the imaging technology of 1968! Monthly searches in the dark of the moon at Palomar with 48” and 18”
The Beginning of Supernova Cosmology
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Kowal (1968) Had distances good to ~30% from SN I
Speculated that individual measurements might be good to 5-10%
“It may even be possible to measure the second-order term in the redshift-magnitude relation when light curves become available for very distant supernovae.”
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Like the Vikings, the Danes were there a long time ago! 1989 SN1988U: SN Ia z=0.31 For cosmology! Real-time image registration, scaling,subtraction Monthly searches Scheduled follow-up
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Brighter stars have slower declines in B and V (I is different)
Light Curve Shapes => L
Mark Phillips (1992)
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1998 Data:
Evidence for cosmic acceleration: 20% dimmer than expected
Scatter for one measurement <20%, so a handful gave 3-sigma results
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Cosmic Deceleration from Dark Matter, then Acceleration from Dark Energy!
Deceleration
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The Present
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Curiously, into 2009, the biggest statistical error in SN cosmology was due to the small size of the low-z sample! This has now been remedied by the CfA3 sample Hicken et al. ApJ 700, 331 (2009) 185 Type I Light Curves Hicken et al. ApJ 700, 1097 (2009) Improved Dark Energy Constraints
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Dust both dims and reddens
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253 SN Ia used to calibrate the Hubble expansion, H0=73.8+/-2.4, a 3.3% measurement including systematics (Riess et al. 2011): 0.5% attributed to this
diagram!
The intercept is well-determined: Ho
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ESSENCE Equation of State: SupErNovae Trace Cosmic Expansion
Chris Stubbs, PI
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Full ESSENCE sample is coming soon!
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Figure from Amanullah et al. (2010) Based on Low z: (Calan-Tololo + CfA1 +CfA2 + CfA3 + Sloan) + 8 from SCP (Kowalski 2008) ESSENCE + SNLS + Higher-Z+ 6 from SCP (from 2001!) “Union 2” Ωm = 0.28 +/- 0.01 ΩΛ = 0.72
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dark energy
dark matter
atoms
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1 + w = -0.04 +/-0.06 +/- 0.10 (sys) Consistent with a cosmological constant--but how do we diminish the systematic errors? Can we use information about host galaxies, from spectra? Can we avoid problems with dust? Most promising: NIR observations
Figure from Amanullah et al. (2010)
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Pan-STARRS Medium-Deep Fields Good light curves at z~0.4 Real production now 7 square degrees 0.26 “/pixel
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PS1 Medium Deep Field 4 day cadence m~23 z~0.31 several days before maximum light
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Spectra from Magellan, MMT, Gemini
Key to the RAISIN program to get restframe IR of SN Ia
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Mount Hopkins: CfA Supernova Program
Spectra UBVRI JHKs
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Can Spectra Help?
Stéphane Blondin (CPPM, Marseilles) Has used the CfA Spectral Archive as an independent test, and has explored some other ways of using spectra. ~250 SN Ia, 2000 spectra
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A & A 526, 81 (2011)
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We’ve looked for spectral features that are correlated with reduced scatter in the Hubble diagram (see also Bailey et al. A & A 500, l17 (2009)
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And we have looked at spectral features whose astrophysics we understand
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Spectra and Light Curves Models form a sequence that spans the observed relation-- but do the spectra look right? Yes and no. Blondin et al. MNRAS in press
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Can Spectra Help?
Some. (If you were building a satellite for dark energy would you include an R~300 spectrograph?) (Would you expose to do more than get the redshift and secure the type?)
See also Chotard et al. astro-ph 1103.5300
Maeda et al. MNRAS (2011)
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The biggest uncertainties now are systematic errors and the worst of these come from dust and
light curve fitters
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Dust both dims and reddens -- but less so in the infrared
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J, H, Ks image from PAIRITEL
Make the measurements in the infrared!
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Blank Presentation
Robert P. Kirshner
Theory by Dan Kasen (2006)- expect smallest variance in the IR: Pioneering work by Krisciunas & CTIO group shows this is actually true! CfA: Wood-Vasey et al. 2008
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Kaisey Mandel
Using a Bayesian model to combine optical and IR data for SN Ia, predict distances, and determine dust properties. BayeSN inference : Kaisey Mandel ApJ 704, 629 (2009) ApJ 731, 120 (2011)
Needs Job!
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H-band (1.6 microns) works best
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IR + Optical Get better distances & learn about properties of the dust by using observations over the range from B (0.4 µ) to K (2.2µ) We want to know the ratio of absorption to color change (we measure colors but want to know absorption) Milky Way dust Rv = 3.1 =Av/ E(B-V), but hints are that SN dust is not the same (Rv = 1.7 !)
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Uses optical and IR data from CfA and CSP
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Modeling SN Ia Light Curves: Using the Optical + IR to learn about dust and
distance Kaisey Mandel, RPK & Gautham Narayan
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Blank Presentation
Robert P. Kirshner
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Andy Friedman thesis-- will have ~80 NIR light curves from PAIRITEL
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Optical: standardizable candles
IR: standard candles! (and less trouble with dust!)
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The IR is not strongly correlated with the Optical
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Odd thing: Rv looks ~3.1 for
low extinction Rv looks lower when
extinction is high (different mechanism?)
See also Folatelli AJ 109, 120 (2010)
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The Payoff
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Could we get this advantage for the high-z supernovae? RAISIN
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Measuring Ejecta Velocity Improves Type Ia Supernova Distances
Foley & Kasen ArXiv1011.4517 B-V color and velocity are correlated
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Ryan Foley Clay Fellow at CfA
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The CfA data are helpful because there are spectra at many epochs This permits a good interpolation to v (max)
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Velocity is correlated with B-V color and these help account for departures from the light curve shape Use BayeSN!
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Using Kaisey’s BayeSN method- there is definitely a correlation between B-V color and ejecta velocity as measured in the Si II lines Applying this decreases the prediction error to ~0.12 mag
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The Future
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Skymapper-- a (small) southern Sloan
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Dark Energy Survey
Fermilab project hopes to uncover why universe expansion is accelerating BY KEVIN DANNA NOV 03, 2010
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Use WFC3 to get rest frame IR of moderate redshift SN Ia! SNIA in the IR = RAISIN
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Spectra from Magellan, MMT, Gemini
Key to the RAISIN program to get restframe IR of SN Ia-- inspired by CSP
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One month of panSTARRS also finds an accelerating universe! Very big range in redshift all with a single system. Select a sample to minimize systematics.
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Could we get this advantage for the high-z supernovae?
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Only in space! Rest frame IR measurements of z~1 supernovae are not
possible from the ground Go as far into the IR as technically feasible! Sky is very bright in NIR: >100x brighter than in space Sky is not transparent in NIR: absorption due to water is
very strong and extremely variable
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Odd thing: Rv looks ~3.1 for
low extinction Rv looks lower when
extinction is high (different mechanism?)
See also Folatelli
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Uncertainty in extinction law produces uncertainty in dark energy!
Adding the IR really helps
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A pilot sample (next HST Cycle)
A real contribution to our knowledge of dark energy
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JWST will be excellent for the rest frame IR of SN Ia at 0.2< z <1
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WFIRST Astro 2010 top priority: BAO(slitless) Weak Lensing SN- medium-z restframe IR micro-lensing for planets IR survey IR only
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First wide-field survey telescope