48.449.2

4342.8

52.647.9

38

52.4

45.840.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1932-64 1968-88 1992 1996 2000

Democrat Republican

The Parties at ParityThe Elusive Majority in Presidential Politics

52 52 54

49 49 48 4951

49 49 4945 44 46

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Democrat Republican

The Parties at ParityThe Tie in the House

52%

68%

58%

71%

43%

47%49%52%

35%26%

19%23%

46%

37%37%34%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

10/2

512

/6 2/1

4/16 9/

310

/2

11/2

11/

25

Right Wrong

Direction of the CountryDirection of the Country

Penn, Schoen and Berland

Do you generally think that things in the country are headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?

In general, do you think our country is on the right track or off on the wrong track?

In general, do you think our country is on the right track or off on the wrong track?

71%

47%

40%

49%

35%

43%

44%

66%

20%

47%

41%44%

56%

47%

43%

25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

10/2

512

/6 2/1

4/16 9/

310

/211

/21

1/25

Right Wrong

Direction of the EconomyDirection of the Economy

Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates

In general, do you think our economy is on the right track or off on the wrong track?

In general, do you think our economy is on the right track or off on the wrong track?

5

Most Important Problem All Indy

Economy and Jobs 27% 28%

Terrorism/War/Security 25% 22%

Education 5% 3%

Taxes 5% 2%

Social Security/Medicare 4% 4%

Healthcare 3% 2%

Most Important ProblemMost Important Problem

What do you think is the most important problem facing the country?

What do you think is the most important problem facing the country?

CBS/NY Times 1/25

43%

54%

Terrorism Economy

What do you think is a bigger problem facing the nation right now: terrorism or the economy?

What do you think is a bigger problem facing the nation right now: terrorism or the economy?

Economy or Terrorism? Economy or Terrorism?

ABC News/Washington Post –1/28

58%

31%

Check on Bush Vote Down the Line with Bush

Do you want your representative in Congress to be someone who will be a check on George W. Bush or someone who will vote down

the line with George W. Bush?

Do you want your representative in Congress to be someone who will be a check on George W. Bush or someone who will vote down

the line with George W. Bush?

Check on BushCheck on Bush

Swing Voters: 59/25%; Independents: 63/26%Swing Voters: 59/25%; Independents: 63/26%

Budget Deficit PoliticsBudget Deficit Politics

56%

31%

Raise taxes Not raise taxes

Now that we have a budget deficit, do you think that if

Democrats control Congress they would try to raise taxes,

or not?

Now that we have a budget deficit, do you think that if

Democrats control Congress they would try to raise taxes,

or not?

Now that we have a budget deficit, do you think that if

Republicans control Congress they could try to cut Medicare,

education and the environment, or not?

Now that we have a budget deficit, do you think that if

Republicans control Congress they could try to cut Medicare,

education and the environment, or not?

48%

41%

Will cut Will not cut

Bush Coattails

Bush and Congressional GOP Versus Congressional Dems

Issue Bush C Rep Bush+Preparing Americans for the New Economy

+16 +8 8

Getting the Economy Growing Again

+14 +6 8

Improving Education +9 -8 17Asking People to Give Something Back

+17 -6 23

National Security +57 +35 22 Fighting Terrorism +58 +40 18

Clinton/Congressional Dems

Why Clinton Won Re-Election in 1996 and Republicans Held Congress

Issue Clinton+

Balance Budget 10

Welfare 9

Crime 9

Education 5

Preference for Party Control

3641

44

36

43

36 36

31

42 44

05

101520253035404550

President Congress Governor Congress Congress

Democrat Republican

Penn Poll Gallup