The “Pangaea” Simulator -- An Decision-Maker-Oriented International Climate Simulator

The “Pangaea” Simulator -- An Decision-Maker-Oriented International Climate Simulator

Drew JonesSustainability Institute

Working with Ventana Systems and MIT System Dynamics Group

September 2008

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Simulation Creation Team• Lead Modeler

– Dr. Tom Fiddaman, Ventana Systems• http://www.metasd.com/index.html

• Modeling, Framing, and Presentation Design– Andrew Jones, Sustainability Institute

• http://www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/ • [email protected]

– Dr. Lori Siegel, contractor to SI• Modeling and Framing

– Dr. John Sterman, MIT• http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/



mailto:[email protected]

“Climate Interactive” is a growing coalition of business, academic, & nonprofit organizations

Creating a portfolio of fast, accessible, robust, transparent simulations to help address climate change



Dr. John Sterman, MIT Sloan School of ManagementDirector, System Dynamics GroupAuthor, Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World

Dr. Bill Moomaw, The Fletcher School, Tufts UniversityDirector of the Center for International Environment & Resource PolicyLead author, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2003 (IPCC)

Dr. Peter Senge, MITSenior Lecturer, Sloan School of ManagementFounding Chairman, Society for Organizational LearningAuthor, The Fifth Discipline

Climate Interactive Senior Team Members

Dr. Michelle Erickson, CitigroupDirector, Sustainable Information Technology Program

Purpose of Simulator is to Help Decision Makers Understand Dynamics of Climate Mitigation

Regional FF Emissions6 B

4.5 B

3 B

1.5 B

02007 2023 2038 2054 2069 2085 2100

Time (year)

TonsC/year

CO2 concentration in the atmosphere750

600

450

3002000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

ppm

• Fossil fuel emissions by countries or “economy group”• Land use emissions• Additional sequestration from aforestation• Other greenhouse gas emissions

Inputs• CO2 in the atmosphere• Global temperature• Total emissions• Total removals to oceans, biomass etc.• Sea level rise

Outputs

Emissions from Developed Major

Economies

And Developing Major Economies

And Non-Major Economies

One goal

CO2 in the atmosphere

Simulator Helps Users Conduct Customized Tests: What If…..?


4.5 B

3 B

1.5 B

02007 2023 2038 2054 2069 2085 2100

Time (year)

TonsC/year


4.5 B

3 B

1.5 B

02007 2023 2038 2054 2069 2085 2100

Time (year)

TonsC/year


4.5 B

3 B

1.5 B

02007 2023 2038 2054 2069 2085 2100

Time (year)

TonsC/year


4.5 B

3 B

1.5 B

02007 2023 2038 2054 2069 2085 2100

Time (year)

TonsC/year


4.5 B

3 B

1.5 B

02007 2023 2038 2054 2069 2085 2100

Time (year)

TonsC/year

All reduced 80% by 2050? Or by 2030?

Some by 2030 and others 2060? Starting in 2018?

Developed acts but undeveloped

doesn’t?


7.5 B

5 B

2.5 B

02007 2023 2038 2054 2069 2085 2100

Time (year)

TonsC/year

Business as usual

Developed

Developing

Non Major

(all graphs fossil fuel emissions)

What Would Be the Effect on CO2 Concentrations

in the Atmosphere Over Time? CO2 in the Atmosphere

1,000

825

650

475

3002000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

ppm

ppm CO2 in Atmosphere : cap at 95 emissionsppm CO2 in Atmosphere : all 80% by 2050 plus seqppm CO2 in Atmosphere : baseppm CO2 in Atmosphere : mostly developedGoal for CO2 in the atmosphere : cap at 95 emissions

What Would Total Emissions Looks Like, Divided by Economy Group, since 1900?

FF Emissions by Country Group8 B

6 B

4 B

2 B

01900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080

Time (year)

TonsC/year

Developed ME CO2 FF emissions : all 80% by 2050 plus seqDeveloping ME CO2 FF emissions : all 80% by 2050 plus seqNon ME CO2 FF emissions : all 80% by 2050 plus seq

Developed MEs

DevelopingNonME

(fossil fuel emissions)

How About for Specific Countries?

Regional Emissions by country/region6 B

4.5 B

3 B

1.5 B

01900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

tonsC/year

Historical and forecast national CO2 FF emissions[US] : all 80% by 2050 plus seqHistorical and forecast national CO2 FF emissions[EU] : all 80% by 2050 plus seqHistorical and forecast national CO2 FF emissions[Russia] : all 80% by 2050 plus seqHistorical and forecast national CO2 FF emissions[Japan] : all 80% by 2050 plus seqHistorical and forecast national CO2 FF emissions[China] : all 80% by 2050 plus seqHistorical and forecast national CO2 FF emissions[India] : all 80% by 2050 plus seq

US

EU

China

Russia

(fossil fuel emissions)

Japan

India

Or Cumulative Fossil Fuel Emissions?

Fraction of Global Cumulative Emissions by country/region0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

01990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

National fraction of accumulated world FF CO2 emissions[US] : all 80% by 2050 plus seqNational fraction of accumulated world FF CO2 emissions[EU] : all 80% by 2050 plus seqNational fraction of accumulated world FF CO2 emissions[Russia] : all 80% by 2050 plus seqNational fraction of accumulated world FF CO2 emissions[Japan] : all 80% by 2050 plus seqNational fraction of accumulated world FF CO2 emissions[China] : all 80% by 2050 plus seqNational fraction of accumulated world FF CO2 emissions[India] : all 80% by 2050 plus seq

Cumulative Emissions by country/region400 B

300 B

200 B

100 B

02000 2015 2030 2045 2060 2075 2090

tonsC

Accumulated national FF CO2[US] : all 80% by 2050 plus seqAccumulated national FF CO2[EU] : all 80% by 2050 plus seqAccumulated national FF CO2[Russia] : all 80% by 2050 plus seqAccumulated national FF CO2[Japan] : all 80% by 2050 plus seqAccumulated national FF CO2[China] : all 80% by 2050 plus seqAccumulated national FF CO2[India] : all 80% by 2050 plus seq

US

EU

China

Russia

India

Japan

Or Global Temperature?

Global Temperature Increase3

2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5

01980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

DegreesC

Relative Temperature : all 80% by 2050 plus seqRelative Temperature : cap at 95 emissionsRelative Temperature : baseRelative Temperature : mostly developedGoal for Temperature : all 80% by 2050 plus seq

What If We Boost Removals With Sequestration Through Aforestation?

Sources of Total Removals6 B

4.475 B

2.95 B

1.425 B

-100 M1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080

Time (year)

TonC

/yea

r

biomass

oceans

seq.

Results with 80% reduction in fossil fuel emissions plus 1.6 GTC/year in additional sequestration by 2050

CO2 in the Atmosphere800

700

600

500

400

3002000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

ppm

Goal

Users Move Sliders to Select “What If” Experiments Using the Prototype Control Panel



Historical Fit Results

CO2 vs Data900 B

800 B

700 B

600 B

500 B1740 1770 1800 1830 1860 1890 1920 1950 1980 2010

Time (year)

TonC

CO2 in Atmosphere : all 80% by 2050 plus seqMauna Loa CO2 TonC : all 80% by 2050 plus seqSiple Ice CO2 TonC : all 80% by 2050 plus seq

Temperature -- Model vs Data1

0.625

0.25

-0.125

-0.51850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990

Time (year)

DegreesC

Modeled TemperatureHadley dataJWW dataAngell data

Exploring Implications of Uncertainty in Parameters Through Sensitivity Testing

Temperature Uncertainty5

4

3

2

1

01900 1940 1980 2020 2060 2100

Time (year)

DegreesC

Developedmajor

economies

Carbon cycle Climate

GHGs in atm

Total fossil fuel CO2

emissions Temp

Developingmajor

economies

Nonmajor

economies

Forests

Land useCO2 emissions

CO2

Sequestration

Changes to:AforestationDeforestation

Specific countryemissions

OtherGHGs

Overview of Model Structure



The Core of the Carbon Cycle Sector

CO2 inAtmosphere

CO2 inMixed Layer

CO2 in DeepOcean

Flux Atm to Ocean

Diffusion Flux

CO2 inHumus

CO2 inBiomass

Flux Atm to Biomass

Flux Biomass to Atmosphere

Flux Biomass to Humus

Flux Humus to Atmosphere

<CO2Emissions>

Simplified Carbon Cycle Sector

(7 layers)

(7 layers)

The Core of the Climate SectorClimate Sensitivity

Relative Atmosphereand Upper Ocean

Temperature

Temp Diff

CO2 Radiative Forcing

Climate Feedback Param

Relative DeepOcean Temp

Heat inAtmosphereand UpperOcean

Heat in DeepOcean

Heat Transfer

Feedback Cooling

Radiative ForcingCH4 and N2O

RF input

Other Forcings

CFC Forcing

We Use Metaphors to Help Explain Model Behavior:Think of CO2 in the Atmosphere as a Bathtub

Emissions

CO2 in the atmosphere

Net Removals

The “flat path” caps emissions above removals. More is still flowing into the bathtub than is flowing out. So the level of water in the bathtub continues to rise.

The tub is filled by emissions and drained by net removals into oceans and biomass.

The inflow is roughly double the outflow

For Example: 80% Reduction Brings Emissions Down to Meet Removals

Total Emissions and Removals24 B

18 B

12 B

6 B

02000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

TonC

/yea

r

Emissions

Net Removals

So levels of CO2 in the atmosphere stabilize.

Emissions CO2 in the atmosphere

Net Removals

Our Simulator Use Philosophy• Runs fast for high-iteration model testing

– Model simulates 500 years in less than .1 second– Allows for practical analysis in areas such as uncertainty, trade-

offs, optimization, and robustness • Hands-on use by policy-makers

– Simulators designed to be used easily on a laptop by non-modelers

• Transparency– We share model equations– No black box models

• Understanding causes of dynamics– We take the time to ensure users understand why the model is

doing what it is doing. We don’t say, “because the model says so”.

Simulator to Benefit From and Supplement Other Models

• Pangaea uses data, structure and insights from other, larger, more disaggregated and detailed models– EG, the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs)

• Nations model generates internally consistent scenarios that could be tested and refined and verified in larger models

• Our purpose is to create a small model and make it useful to policy setting and learning about complex dynamics

Sources of Structure and Data

Carbon Cycle and Temperature

Bolin, B. 1986. Fiddaman. T.S. 1997. Nordhaus, W. D. 1992, 1994, 2000 Goudriaan, J. and P. Ketner. 1984. Oeschger, H., U. Siegenthaler, et al. 1975.Rotmans, J. 1990. Schwartz, S.E. 2007. Schneider, S.H., and S.L. Thompson. 1981. Socolow, R.H. And S.H. Lam. 2007. Wullschleger, S. D., W. M. Post, et al. 1995.

Sea Level Rise Rahmstorf, S. 2007.

Sources of Historical DataHistorical FF CO2 Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp030/CSV-FILES/

Historical Population

Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.Calculated by dividing FF emissions by FF emissions per capita

Historical GDP Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration. http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tableh1cco2.xls.

Historical CO2 atmospheric concentrations

Mauna Loa – National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administrationhttp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/Siple Ice - Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. 1994. Historical CO2 Record from the Siple Station Ice Core http://cdiac.ESD.ORNL.GOV/trends/co2/siple.htm

Historical Temperature Changes

HADCRUT3, Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office. National Climatic Data Center, NCDC.

CFC Forcing Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/ghgases/

Other Forcings GISS. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/

Sources of Projected DataProjected FF CO2 emissions, atmospheric concentrations, and temperature

BAU:US MiniCAM EMF Standard ReferenceEurope AIM96 Standard ReferenceChina MiniCAM EMF Standard ReferenceIndia MERGE 3.0 RefWorld MiniCAM EMF14 Standard ReferenceWorld CETA EMF14 Standard ReferenceWorld AIM EMF14 Standard ReferenceWorld ASF SRES A1 ScenarioReduction:World MiniCAM EMF14 Accelerated TechnologyWorld CETA EMF14 Accelerated Technology

Projected N2O and CH4 atmospheric concentrations

IPCC Third Assessment Report. 2001. Chapter 6. Radiative Forcing of Climate Change. P.358.

We Have Calibrated Our Future Global Fossil Fuel Emissions to Track MiniCAM Most Closely

Global Fossil Fuel Emissions40 B

30 B

20 B

10 B

01990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Time (year)

tons

C/y

ear

World CO2 FF emissions : BAUMiniCAM EMF14 Standard ReferenceCETA EMF14 Standard ReferenceAIM96 Standard Standard ReferenceASF SRES A1 Data

We Have Calibrated Our Country-Level Fossil Fuel Emissions to Track MiniCAM, AIM, and MERGE

China Emissions Calibration8 B

6 B

4 B

2 B

01990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Time (year)

tons

C/y

ear

CO2 FF emissions[China] : BAUChina MiniCAM EMF Stnd RefChina AIM96 Standard Scenario

India Emissions Calibration4 B

3 B

2 B

1 B

01990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Time (year)

tons

C/y

ear

CO2 FF emissions[India] : BAUIndia MERGE3 Ref

US Emissions Calibration4 B

3 B

2 B

1 B

01990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Time (year)

tons

C/y

ear

CO2 FF emissions[US] : BAUUSA MiniCAM EMF Stnd RefUS Emissions AIM EMF16 Mod Ref

EU Emissions Calibration4 B

3 B

2 B

1 B

01990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Time (year)

tons

C/y

ear

CO2 FF emissions[EU] : BAUEU Emissions AIM EMF16 Mod Ref

We Compared Our Model’s Business as Usual Scenario for CO2 Concentrations to Other Models

IPCC CO2 Atm Conc Models vs Nations Model1,000

750

500

250

01990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Time (year)

ppm

ppm CO2 in Atmosphere : BAUMiniCAM Stnd RefCETA EMF14 Stnd RefRICE EMF14

We Compared Our Model’s Response to the MiniCAM Business as Usual Fossil Fuel

Emissions Scenario

800

400

0

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Time (year)

ppm

Our Model

MiniCAM

CO2 concentration in the atmosphere

Result when our carbon cycle is fed

by MiniCAM’s emissions

We Compared Our Model’s Response to the MiniCAM “Accelerated Tech” Reduction

Fossil Fuel Emissions ScenarioCO2 concentration in the atmosphere

600

400

200

1990 2020 2050 2080Time (year)

ppm

Our Model

MiniCAM

Result when our carbon cycle is fed

by MiniCAM’s emissions

MiniCAM FF Emissions for Accel Tech Reduction Scenario8 B

6 B

4 B

2 B

01990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Time (year)

tonsC/year

Emissions World MiniCAM Accel Tech : bau

We Plan to Post the Sim Online for Global Use



More information• Models on which the model that created these runs were based

– http://www.metasd.com/models/index.html#Climate • Interactive version covering some of these ideas

– http://www.seed.slb.com/en/scictr/watch/climate_change/challenge.htm– http://www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/tools_resources/

climatebathtubsim.html – http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/GHG.html

• Video version– http://video.google.com/videoplay?

docid=8235725143334110601&pr=goog-sl • Other related simulations

– http://www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/climate_change/simulations.html \• Project blog

– http://climateinteractive.wordpress.com/ • For an interactive, online demonstration, contact

– [email protected]

http://climateinteractive.wordpress.com/

http://www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/climate_change/simulations.html%20/

The “Pangaea” Simulator -- An Decision-Maker-Oriented International Climate Simulator

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