THE OSTERMAN FILES

Twelve Reasons Why He Won’t On the cusp, yet again. California Chrome’s convincing Preakness’ success at Pimlico on Saturday puts him on a potential red carpet stroll to racing immortality. In less than three weeks, the paparazzi will be out in force to take his photo as he makes the walk over to the Belmont paddock amid all the razzle-dazzle the situation merits. Then, they’ll run the race…. It’s a time when racing fans forget about commonsense and forget about the past. They just want California Chrome to win the Triple Crown. Those that have backed him through the first two legs aren’t about to pull their support at this stage. They may not take the short price on the favorite to win but they won’t be betting against him either. Many others who have tried to beat him in the Derby and Preakness will finally jump on the bandwagon because they can no longer I.D. potential contenders who might beat California Chrome. Just remember the following 12 reasons why he could easily fail.

1. SPECTACULAR BID (1979) – Coming on the heels of three Triple Crown winners in just six years, it was supposed to be an afterthought that the ‘Bid would add his name to the roster. He won the Derby by daylight at 3/5, cruised in the Preakness at 1/10 and couldn’t lose the Belmont at 30-cents on the dollar. He finished third. Whether it was a bone-head ride by rogue bug-boy Ronnie Franklin or an over-confident training job by Buddy Delp or that mythical safety pin or an inability to get 12 furlongs doesn’t matter. Spectacular Bid lost the Belmont and California Chrome is no Spectacular Bid.

2. PLEASANT COLONY (1981) – He took the Derby at 7/2 and the Preakness at 3/2. In the Belmont he acted up in the gate, broke last of 11 and could only rally into third as the 4/5 chalk. He’s only a footnote now.

3. ALYSHEBA (1987) – His Derby win was miraculous and he did enough to take the Preakness with a late surge. However, he was a no-show in New York while finishing more than 14 lengths behind at 4/5. He proved himself to be a great horse down the road but he lost the Belmont and lost it badly.

4. SUNDAY SILENCE (1989) – He “upset” Easy Goer at Churchill and Pimlico but when they got to his foe’s home track, it was no contest. Easy Goer had the 4/5 chalk for lunch that day.

5. SILVER CHARM (1997) – Baffert’s grey won photos at 4/1 and 3/1 in the first two legs and had the lead inside the furlong pole at even money in the third. Touch Gold came and got him.

6. REAL QUIET (1998) – Something of a second-stringer for Baffert, he upset the Derby field at 8/1 and dominated Victory Gallop in the Preakness. He was four clear of that foe with a furlong to go in the Belmont but lost by a lip before having the lead again past the wire. Desormeaux’s fault or the racing gods just having some fun? You make the call.

7. CHARMISMATIC (1999) – On the block for a $62,500 tag in February, he won the Derby at 31/1 and was 8/1 when he repeated in Maryland. By Belmont

Day he was the 8/5 favorite and looked on his way to victory before breaking an ankle inside the furlong pole. He never ran again.

8. WAR EMBLEM (2002) – He wired them at CD (20/1), beat them again on the front end at PIM (5/2) and was never heard from at BEL (6/5) after stumbling badly at the start and becoming very rank.

9. FUNNY CIDE (2003) – The New York-bred gelding won the Derby and the Preakness but was exposed in the Belmont where he had no excuses as an 8/5 flop.

10. SMARTY JONES (2004) – Hugely popular after winning his first eight starts in smashing fashion, the party ended when he coughed up a daylight lead to Birdstone (36/1) in the final furlong. He simply couldn’t stay the distance.

11. BIG BROWN (2008) – The only way he could lose the Belmont at 1/5 odds was if he got pulled up. He got pulled up.

12. I’LL HAVE ANOTHER (2012) – He injured an ankle days before his date with destiny and didn’t even make the race. There you have it -- twelve reasons why California Chrome is no cinch no matter how low the odds when he shows up in New York. Some of these Belmont “losers” had more talent than California Chrome, some had less. They all lost because that’s the kind of race we’re dealing with. If California Chrome can’t overcome recent history, we’ll have a “baker’s dozen” since Affirmed in 1978. End end end