7/11/2013

1

2013 OAPA Planning Conference

The Oregon Resilience Plan

Kent Yu, PhD, Chair

Jay Wilson, Vice Chair

Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory CommissionMay 31, 2013 

Portland, Oregon

Cascadia Subduction Earthquake

Can we learn from other similar events or do we have to learn the hard way?

Magnitude 9.0 Paradigm Shift

Strong Ground Shaking (M9 w/ 2 ‐ 4 min shaking)

Tsunami within 15 to 25 minutes

Cascadia Subduction Earthquake

The Oregon Resilience Plan50‐year Comprehensive Plan

Save Lives

Protect our Economy

Preserve our Communities

169 Expert Volunteers

$ Millions in donation of professional services

One‐year Schedule

Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory Commission

Kent Yu – Chair, Structural Engineer, Degenkolb Engineers

Jay Wilson  – Vice Chair, Public Member, Clackmas County  Emergency Management

Deborah Boone  – Representative, Legislative Assembly

Greg Ek‐Collins  – Oregon Department of Transportation

Carl Farrington  – Multifamily House Stakeholder

Fred Girod  – Senator, Legislative Assembly 

David Holton/Francisco Ianni – American Red Cross

Iann Madin – Chief Scientist, Department of Geology and Mineral Industries

Mike Mumaw – Local Government Stake Holder, City of Beaverton

Jay Raskin – Public Member, Ecola Architects

Althea Rizzo – Oregon Emergency Management (OEM)

Richard Rogers – Building Codes Division

Steve Lucker – Department of Land Conservation and Development

Susan Steward – Building Owners Stakeholder, BOMA

Mark Tyler – Schools Stakeholder

Bryce Ward – Banking Stakeholder, ECONorthwest

Stan Watters – Utilities Stakeholder, Port of Portland

Gerry Williams – Public Member, C&EMR

Bev Hall – OSSPAC Secretary, OEM

7/11/2013

2

Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquakes

Mw ~9500 yrs

Mw 8.5‐8.8430 yrs

Mw 8.5‐8.3320 yrs

Mw 7.6‐8.4240 yrs

(Modified from Goldfinger et al. (in press) by adding magnitude estimates and some labels)

Recurrence

Cascadia Earthquake Hazards and Risk Cascadia Earthquake Hazards and Risk 

March 25,1993 Scotts Mills Spring Break Earthquake

March 25,1993 Scotts Mills Spring Break Earthquake

Oregon Education & Emergency Facilities

Oregon Tsunami Exposure 

(Source: Nate Wood/2007, USGS)

House Resolution 3

7/11/2013

3

House Resolution 3

Directs Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory Commission (OSSPAC) to “lead and coordinate preparation of an Oregon Resilience Plan that . . . makes recommendations on policy direction to protect lives and keep commerce flowing during and after a Cascadia (megathrust) earthquake and tsunami.”

Focuses on physical infrastructure 

Key Endorsement

From White House From Governor of Oregon

Definition of Resilience

Resilience: Save lives, Reduce Losses, Speed Recovery, & Rebuild Better

Sustainability without Resilience is NOT sustainable!

Organizational Structure

OSSPAC

Advisory PanelOSSPAC Steering 

Committee

Eight Task Groups

Critical/Essential Buildings

Energy

Information and Communications 

Transportation

Water and Waste Water 

Eight Task Groups

Magnitude 9.0 Earthquake/Tsunami Scenario

Business and Work Force Continuity

Coastal Communities

Team Building ‐ Advisory Panel

Prof. Scott Ashford (Oregon State Univ.)

Sen. Lee Beyer (Legislature)

Sen. Peter Courtney (Legislature)

Ed  Dennis (formerly Dept. of Education)

JR Gonzalez (formerly Oregon PUC)

Prof. Chris Goldfinger (Oregon State Univ.)

Dave Harlan (Business Oregon/Ports)

Onno Husing (formerly OCZMA)

Bruce Johnson (ODOT)

Dr. Leon Kempner, Jr. (BPA)

Prof. Andre LeDuc (Univ. of Oregon)

Dr. Vicki McConnell (DOGAMI/WSSPC)

Jean O‘Connor  (Oregon Health Authority)

Cameron Smith (Governor’s office)

Jeff Soulages (Intel)

Yumei Wang (DOGAMI/NEHRP)

Edward Wolf (Oregon citizen)

Dr. Nate Wood (USGS)

7/11/2013

4

Team Building ‐ Eight Task Groups Earthquake and Tsunami Scenario: Ian Madin (DOGAMI, OSSPAC)

Business/Work Force Continuity: Susan Steward (BOMA, OSSPAC) & Gerry Williams (OSSPAC)

Coastal Communities: Jay Wilson (vice Chair, OSSPAC) & Jay Raskin (OSSPAC) 

Critical/Essential Buildings: Ed Quesenberry (SEAO)  & Trent Nagele (SEAO)

Transportation: Bruce Johnson (ODOT)

Energy: JR Gonzalez (formerly OPUC) & Stan Watters (Port of Portland, OSSPAC)

Information and Communications: Mike Mumaw (OSSPAC)

Water and Wastewater: Mike Stuhr (City of Portland PWB) & Mark Knudson (TVWD)

Broad Participation  Governor’s office (1) Indian Tribe: Coquille Tribe  (3) Ports: Port of Portland, Port of Astoria, Port of Coos Bay (4) Federal Agencies: BPA, USGS, US Army Corps, USCG (4) State Legislators: Beyer, Boone, Courtney, Kruse (5) Universities (UO, OSU, PSU, UP, UTA) (6) Private utilities providers (10+) Local Government (Astoria to Brookings, Pendleton to 

Cannon Beach)  (11) Public utilities providers  (11) State Agencies/(2)Commissions/(2)Boards Earthquake professionals: SEAO, ASCE, EERI, CREW Oregon businesses: High tech, healthcare, insurance, food retail, 

construction… Professional associations, NGOs, citizens,…

Earthquake/Tsunami Group

Led by Ian Madin (OSSPAC/DOGAMI)

Magnitude 9.0 Earthquake/Tsunami Scenario Group will develop:

1) Ground shaking intensity maps

2) Tsunami Inundation maps

3) Landslide and liquefaction maps 

Business/Community Continuity Group

Led by Susan Stewart (OSSPAC/BOMA) and Gerry Williams (OSSPAC)

Goals:  

Raise Earthquake/Tsunami Awareness

Gauge Earthquake/Tsunami Preparedness

Gather input/ideas from Business for other workgroups to define resilience targets and improve resilience plan

Coastal Community Resilience Group

Led by Jay Wilson/Jay Raskin (OSSPAC)

Tsunami Risk Mitigation Group will address the following:

Tsunami evacuation

Zoning and Land use policy

Critical facilities  

Re‐building community

Debris management

Critical Building Group

Led by Ed Quesenberry and Trent Nagele (SEAO)  The Critical Building Task Group will address the buildings listed 

below:

Emergency Operations Centers

Healthcare facilities (Hospitals and MOBs)

Police and Fire Stations

Critical government administration/services facilities

Emergency sheltering facilities

Education facilities (K‐12, College and University); 

Community retail centers

Financial/banking Buildings

Residential Housing

Killer buildings (URM and non‐ductile RC buildings)

7/11/2013

5

Energy Group

Led by Stan Watters (OSSPAC/Port of Portland) and 

JR Gonzalez (formerly OPUC)

The Energy Task Group will address the systems listed below:

Electricity

Natural Gas

Liquid Fuel

Dams

Transportation Group

Led by Bruce Johnson (ODOT)

The Transportation Task Group will address the systems listed below:

Bridges (owned by ODOT, Counties or Cities)

Airports and Seaports

Railroads

Mass Transit (Trimet)

Columbia River 

Information and Communications Group

Led by Mike Mumaw (OSSPAC/Beaverton)

The Information and Communications Task Group will address the systems listed below:

Communication Network and Database

Telecommunication Infrastructure 

Water and Waste Water Group Led by Mike Stuhr (PWB) and Mark Knudson (TVWD)

The Water and Wastewater Task Group will address the systems listed below:

Water storage, transmission, and distribution systems (including Dams)

Wastewater collection systems and treatment plants 

Lifeline Sector Interdependence

Identify common denominators

Liquid Fuel, Transportation

Electricity, W&WW, Telecom 

Challenges and Obstacles

Lack of participation/engagement

Lack of inspectors for buildings and bridges

Four Zones

/I‐5 corridor

7/11/2013

6

Regional Dependence(Lifeline Routes)

Oregon Resilience Planning Steps

Assess performance of existing critical facilities and lifeline systems, and estimate timeframes required to restore functions at present conditions;

Develop resilience goals based on business and community needs for each zone;

Define acceptable target timeframes to restore functions to meet resilience goals; and 

Prepare recommendations for statewide policies and actions to achieve the desired performance targets.   

Key Findings

• Oregon is far from resilient to the impact of a great Cascadia earthquake today

• Casualties (a few thousand to more than 10,000)

• Economic Loss  (at least 20% state GDP)

• More than one million truck loads of debris

• Liquid Fuel vulnerability

• Business can only tolerate two to four weeks of disruption of essential services 

Current Resilience Gap

What do the findings mean?

Complex Inter‐dependencies

Damage vs. Impacts Costs ‐ Replace & Rehabilitate Capacity ‐ Loss of Service Value ‐ Society & Economy

7/11/2013

7

Multi-Family Housing &

Tsunami Vertical Evacuation Building

Department

Store

Police HQ

High Ground

Hospital

Residential

Neighborhood

Residential

Neighborhood

EOC

Slow and Frustrating Recovery

• Establish a State Resilience Office to provide leadership, resources, advocacy, and expertise in implementing statewide resilience plans

• Undertake comprehensive seismic assessments of the key structures and systems that underpin Oregon’s economy;

Overarching Recommendations

• Launch a sustained program of capital improvement in Oregon’s public structures;

• Craft a package of incentives to engage Oregon’s private sector to advance seismic resilience;

• Update Oregon’s public policies

Overarching Recommendations

• Propose to work with Oregon’s Legislative Assembly to keep the 50‐year goal in view 

• Community‐level Planning

• Joint regional planning with Washington State

• Human Resilience

• Civic infrastructure

Looking Ahead

Status Summary Project Kickoff workshop on 1/26/2012 (312th Anniversary)

Task Group Leader workshop in October 2012

Completed draft report  in January 2013

Oregonian published our draft report on 2/4/2013

Delivered the resilience report to OR state legislature on 2/28/2013

Press Conference on 3/11/2013 (2nd Anniversary of Tohoku EQ)

Presented the resilience plan to joint senate and house committees on 3/14/2013

Presentation the resilience plan to House Committee on Transportation and Economic Development on 5/13/2013 

Three additional hearings in June 2013

SB33 Amendment  ‐‐ Task Force for Implementation of ORP

7/11/2013

8

Media Attention  

A Few Links for Further Readinghttp://www.constructioninst.org/CEMagazine/ArticleNs.aspx?id=23622324492

2. Oregon Resilience Plan executive summary (PDF):http://www.oregon.gov/OMD/OEM/osspac/docs/Oregon_Resilience_Plan_Executive_Summary_Final.pdf

3. Oregon Resilience Plan full report, by chapter:http://www.oregon.gov/omd/oem/pages/osspac/osspac.aspx#Oregon_Resilience_Plan

4. Coverage in The Oregonian (Feb. 4, 2013):http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2013/02/cascadia_earthquake_and_tsunam.html#incart_m‐rpt‐2

5. Coverage in The Seattle Times (March 9, 2013):http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2020525702_earthquakerecoveryxml.html

6. Materials submitted for 3/14 hearing:https://olis.leg.state.or.us/liz/2013R1/Committees/SVEP/2013‐03‐14‐13‐00/MeetingMaterials

7. Coverage in MSN/NBC News (March 18, 2013):http://science.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/18/17358702‐10000‐could‐die‐in‐northwest‐quake‐chilling‐report‐says?lite&lite=obnetwork

8. Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory Commission: http://www.oregon.gov/omd/oem/pages/osspac/osspac.aspx

1. ASCE Civil Engineering Magazine coverage:

Thank You

Approaches to Recovery Tohoku, Japan

Minamisanriku

7/11/2013

9

Two Levels of Tsunami Protection: 100 yr (seawalls) and 1000 yr (elevation)

Natori City – Yuriage District Demonstration Site Elevated Residential Area

MinamisanrikuRecovery Vision

Kesennuma – EQ Subsidence Causing Daily Flooding at High Tide

KesennumaRaising Land

Signs of Hope

7/11/2013

10

Additional Slides for Q&A

Operational Airports After EQ‐Tsunami – Valley

Columbia River Ports

Port of Portland Facilities

Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake (Magnitude 9.0)

6    complete collapses

64   extensive

106  major 

164  slight

Estimates Loss: 

$1,080 million for bridge repair and replacement 

Significant Economic losses (travel time related losses)

RouteDamage States

Slight Moderate Extensive Complete

I-5 (MWC) 4 1 0 0

I-5 (MLL) 16 3 1 0

I-5 (DJJ) 27 0 0 0

I-84 13 1 0 0

US-101 7 14 36 5

US-26 7 5 0 0

I-205 8 2 0 0

I-405 7 0 0 0

US-30 4 2 2 0

US-20 5 3 5 0

OR-38 3 2 1 0

OR-42 4 13 13 1

Others 59 60 6 0

Total 164 106 64 6

Retrofitting Progress

First 16 Years Since Vulnerability was Identified

Years Actions

1994/1997 CH2M Hill prioritization includes all state and local bridges. Priority state bridges 1155

1985-2012 • Phase 1 retrofit added to repair projects 143

Other bridges resolved (replacements or retrofits added

to repair/widening contracts in the STIP & OTIA III program) 212

Total number of bridges addressed 355

Future Bridges still needing retrofitting 800(About 200 years at average 4 bridges retrofitted per year in the

STIP, much longer for Phase 2 and much longer to Pay OTIA III bonds)

7/11/2013

11

METRO Bridges

Bridge Name Expected Performance   Notes I‐5 Boone Bridge Slight Damage Retrofitted Ph 1 

I‐5 Marquam Moderate Retrofitted Ph 1

I‐5 Oregon Slough Moderate Poor girder connections

I‐205 Abernethey Moderate Poor column confinement

US30 Bypass St. Johns Extensive Poor column details

I‐405 Fremont Moderate Poor column details

I‐405 Fremont approach  Collapse Poor column details

US26 Ross Island Collapse Poor column details

Sellwood, Hawthorne Collapse

Steel, Broadway Collapse

Morrison, Burnside Extensive

Columbia River Bridges US 101 Astoria‐Megler Bridge Collapse Truss, Steel Columns, foundations 

US30C Longview‐Ranier Bridge Collapse Retrofitted Ph 1, columns, foundations

I‐5 Interstate Collapse Poor details, counterweight

I‐5 Oregon Slough Moderate Poor girder connections, liquefaction

I‐205 Glen Jackson Slight to moderate Column reinforcement

I‐205 South Channel Slight Column reinforcement