The Ohio Statewide Short Distance Travel Models

The Ohio Statewide Model

Spatial Distributions of Economic Activity

Spatial Distributions of Population Categories

Model AreaEconomic Activity Levels

Model Area Population Levels

Zoning and Land Use

Short Distance Person Travel

Long Distance Person Travel

Visitor Travel

Business Travel

Goods & Services Trasnport

Short Distance Travel ModelForecasts the person movements arising from household production and consumption of economic activities and labor.Entirely based on probabilistic models.Fully micro-simulated the models are applied to each individual in the population.Forecast daily activity patterns, tours and trips:Residents onlyTravel within 50 miles of home except WorkExclude business travel

Short Distance Travel Model Flow

Daily Activity Pattern ModelSelects an activity pattern for each person in the population.Activity patterns are sequences of activities.Activity patterns consist of tours:Home-basedWork-basedObserved in the home interview surveys

H

O

H

W

S

H

R

H

tour

tour

tour

H

W

W

O

S

H

subtour

tour

Activity Pattern Model - Segmentation

Sheet1

Person CharacteristicsPerson Type

Age (Years)EmployedStudent

Less than 5Pre-School Child

5 to 17Grade School Child

18 or olderYesCollege Person

18 or olderYesNoWorker

18 or olderNoNoNon Worker

Activity Pattern Model Tour Composition Ruleswork tourshop tourrec. tour

Sheet1

Activities Present in TourPerson TypeTour Purpose

WorkSchoolShopRecreationOther

WorkerWork

StudentSchool

Shop

Recreation

Other

H

O

H

W

S

H

R

H

Daily Activity Pattern Model - SimplificationsTours always start and end at home, or start and end at work

Activity Pattern Model - SimplificationsHome-Based Tours consist of one primary destination and at most one intermediate stop per half-tour.

90% fit the simplified pattern exactly.

Activity Pattern Model - SimplificationsWork-Based Tours have no intermediate stops.

85% fit the simplified pattern exactly.

Daily Activity Pattern Model - Structure

NameTitle

NameTitle

NameTitle

NameTitle

NameTitle

NameTitle

Team Title

NameTitle

Company Name

Company NameDepartment Name

Choice

H

HCH

HWH

HCHRH

HOWRH

HOOHSH

HOHSHOHRH

Daily Activity Pattern Model - StructureChoices are generalized patterns:Ignore purpose of intermediate stops if pattern has 2+ toursIgnore presence of intermediate stops if pattern has 3+ toursSubmodels select purpose and number of stops if pattern was generalized

END RESULT:PATTERN DISTRIBUTION IN FORECAST POPULATIONSAME AS OBSERVED IN SURVEYS

Sheet1

Person TypeNumber of Alternatives

In ModelIn Survey

Pre-School Child206310

Grade School Child288426

College Person467759

Worker6182,103

Non Worker300942

Daily Activity Pattern Model - StructureExplanatory variables:Activity-related:Number and purpose of activitiesSequence of tours and/or activitiesNumber and purpose of toursNumber, purpose, presence/absence of intermediate stopsTraveler-related:Age and genderHousehold size, number of workers, income, presence and age of childrenTransport-related:Home to work distance (worker & college student models only)Destination choice logsum by purpose

Estimation Results Worker Day Pattern Model

Sheet1

Day Pattern VariableCoefficientt Statistic

Number of tours is 1-0.2932-2.7




Number of tours is 5 or more-3.0060-7.9

One work/work-based tour only, no stops1.643727.8

One work/work-based tour, no stops1.003317.2

One work/work-based tour only, with outbound stop only-0.2002-4.1

One work/work-based tour only, with inbound stop only0.886121.9

One work/work-based tour, with outbound stop only-0.2368-3.9

One work/work-based tour, with inbound stop only0.31175.9

Two or more work/work-based tours, no stops-0.5664-4.7

Two or more work/work-based tours, with stops-2.2361-22.8

Number of work-based tours-2.3074-72.9

Presence of shop tours dummy0.38126.0

Presence of recreation tours dummy1.057718.5

Presence of other tours dummy-0.1061-2.5

Shop before work dummy-1.6996-24.7

Recreation before work dummy-2.2462-22.7

Other before work dummy-1.4255-30.4


Sheet1


One shop activity-1.7932-22.5

Two shop activities-2.9235-23.0

Three shop activities-3.5010-15.5

Four or more shop activities-3.1567-5.1

One recreation activity-2.0660-26.3

Two recreation activities-3.6442-26.0

Three or more recreation activities-4.5591-12.2

One other activity-0.8225-12.1

Two other activities-0.8996-7.8

Three other activities-1.1073-6.8

Four or more other activities-1.2815-5.7

# of stops on work tours * # of non-work tours-0.0290-0.9

Presence of stops on work tours * # of stops on nwrk tours-0.1586-3.2

Presence of stops on work-based tours0.599412.8

Presence of stops on shop tours-0.2984-6.1

Presence of stops on recreation tours-1.3708-23.4

One stop on other tours-1.3234-24.6

Two stops on other tours-1.9032-19.0

Three or more stops on other tours-2.8206-7.6


Sheet1


Two or more tours dummy if autos = 0-0.6952-4.8

Presence of stops on work tours if autos = 0-0.7170-4.0

Presence of stops on work based tours if autos = 0-1.2384-2.5

Shop stops on work tours if female0.19442.9

Presence of shop tours or stops if female0.350710.0

Presence of shop tours or stops if age less than 25 yrs old-0.2493-3.1

Presenc of shop tours or stops if age 55+ yrs old0.19524.8

Presence of shop tours or stops if high income0.05541.6

Presence of shop tours or stops if one adult worker, 1+ child.0.20212.0

Presence of shop tours or stops if 2+ adults, 1+ children-0.1606-3.2

Presence of recreation tours or stops if age less than 25 yrs0.32304.2

Presence of recreation tours of stops if age 55+ yrs0.12162.5

Presence of recreation tours or stops if high income0.20595.4

Presence of rec. tours or stops if one adult worker, 1+ children-0.2887-2.2

Presence of rec. tours or stops if 2+ adults, no children-0.2752-6.6

Presence of rec. tours or stops if 2+ adults, 1+ children-0.3351-5.5

Presence of other tours or stops if female0.290010.8

Presence of other tours or stops if age less than 25 yrs old-0.3934-6.4

Presence of other tours or stops if age 55+ yrs0.20005.5

Presence of other tours or stops if high income0.07682.8


Sheet1


Presence of other if 1 adult worker, 1+ child., no preschooler1.291310.7

Presence of other if one adult worker, 1+ child., 1+ preschooler1.42236.9

Presence of other if 2+ adults, workers=adults, 1+ child., no preschooler0.592614.7

Presence of other if 2+ adults, workers=adults, 1+ child., 1+ preschooler0.698514.2

Presence of other if 2+ adults, workers


Sheet1


Number of tours if home to work distance is 1.0 - 2.5 miles0.32406.9



Number of tours if home to work distance is 10.0 - 25.0 miles-0.4275-7.4

Number of tours if home to work distance is 25.0 - 50.0 miles-0.4985-7.0

Number of tours if home to work distance is 50.0+ miles-0.4456-4.1

Number of stops on work tours if home to work distance is 50.0+ miles0.89092.9

Number of stops on all tours if home to work distance is 1.0 - 2.5 miles-0.2701-3.9





Number of stops on all tours if home to work distance is 50.0+ miles-1.0771-3.7

Daily Activity Pattern Model CalibrationPatterns by Number of Tours per Pattern

Daily Activity Pattern Model - CalibrationNumber of Tours by Tour PurposeB tour includes a work-based subtour

Daily Activity Pattern Model - CalibrationNumber of Trips by Tour PurposeB tour includes a work-based subtour

Tour Scheduling ModelSelects the departure time and duration of home-based toursMultinomial logit, segmented by tour purposeOne hour resolutionChoice set consists of (departure time, arrival time) combinations 190 total time windows

Arrival IntervalDepartureInterval0 to 5 AM5 AM to 6 AM6 AM to 7 AM7 AM to 8 AM0 to 5 AM5 AM to 6 AM6 AM to 7 AM7 AM to 8 AM

Tour Scheduling ModelUses the tour purpose hierarchy and day-pattern sequence to determine time window (choice) availability.Utility function consists of departure time and duration continuous shift variables, and departure time and duration constants:

Sensitive to:Day-pattern composition effectsTraveler effectsTransport effects

Estimation Results - Work Tour Scheduling Model

Sheet1

Departure Time Shift - Day Pattern Composition EffectsCoefficientt Statistic

One or more other work tours-0.2211-10.1-10.1

Presence of shop tours0.10806.06.0

Presence of recreation tours0.04252.32.3

Presence of other tours0.09454.84.8

Inbound stop only on tour-0.0751-4.5-4.5

Outbound stop only on tour0.10955.25.2

Inbound & outbound stop on tour-0.0014-0.1-0.1

First tour of the day if 2 tour pattern-0.2177-11.3-11.3

Second tour of the day if 2 tour pattern0.386017.317.3


Second tour of the day if 3 tour pattern-0.0032-0.1-0.1

Third tour of the day if 3 tour pattern0.588812.912.9

First tour of the day if 4+ tour pattern-0.3469-8.0-8.0

Second tour of the day if 4+ tour pattern-0.1143-2.4-2.4

Third tour of the day if 4+ tour pattern0.12082.12.1

Fourth tour of the day if 4+ tour pattern0.68108.48.4

Presence of a work-based sub-tour0.07064.54.5


Sheet1

Duration Shift - Day Pattern Composition EffectsCoefficientt Statistic

One or more other work tours-0.4085-25.2-25.2

Presence of shop tours0.03632.52.5

Presence of recreation tours0.04713.23.2

Presence of other tours0.05363.43.4

Inbound stop only on tour0.242919.619.6

Outbound stop only on tour0.01941.01.0

Inbound & outbound stop on tour0.09034.84.8





Third tour of the day if 3 tour pattern-0.3474-8.0-8.0

First tour of the day if 4+ tour pattern-0.5822-18.1-18.1

Second tour of the day if 4+ tour pattern-0.7676-19.3-19.3

Third tour of the day if 4+ tour pattern-0.6505-11.4-11.4

Fourth tour of the day if 4+ tour pattern-0.5674-6.4-6.4

Presence of a work-based sub-tour0.335726.526.5


Sheet1

Departure Time Shift - Traveler Attribute EffectsCoefficientt Statistic

Grade/High school student-0.1320-2.8-3.1

College student0.01340.80.2

High income household-0.0023-0.35.5

Zero car household0.07632.6-2.9

Female0.05927.5-11.8

Children 5 years old or younger in hhld-0.0154-1.3-0.8

Children 6-15 years old in hhld-0.0281-2.8-1.0

Non working adult in hhld0.02361.9-2.9

Multiple, all working adult hhld0.00710.6-4.7

Age greater than 55 years old-0.1580-10.4-5.6

Age between 26 & 35 years old-0.1101-7.82.0

Age between 36 & 55 years old-0.2007-15.42.0

Retail occupation or industry0.243814.2-4.2

Public Administration occupation or industry (not retail)0.07253.4-2.6

Arts/Recreation industry (not retail, not public administration)0.31188.3-6.7

Accommodations/Food industry (not retail, not public admin.)0.272311.2-2.2

Real Estate industry (not retail, not public administration)0.25635.3-5.6

Office industry or occupation (not retail, not public administration)0.11708.4-3.8

-2.2


Sheet1

Duration Shift - Traveler Attribute EffectsCoefficientt Statistic

Grade/High school student-0.1251-3.1-3.1

College student0.00310.20.2

High income household0.03735.55.5

Zero car household-0.0875-2.9-2.9

Female-0.0780-11.8-11.8

Children 5 years old or younger in hhld-0.0079-0.8-0.8

Children 6-15 years old in hhld-0.0082-1.0-1.0

Non working adult in hhld-0.0310-2.9-2.9

Multiple, all working adult hhld-0.0448-4.7-4.7

Age greater than 55 years old-0.0807-5.6-5.6

Age between 26 & 35 years old0.02812.02.0

Age between 36 & 55 years old0.02552.02.0

Retail occupation or industry-0.0573-4.2-4.2

Public Administration occupation or industry (not retail)-0.0378-2.6-2.6

Education occupation or industry (not retail or public admin.)-0.0928-6.7-6.7

Arts/Recreation industry (not retail or public administration)-0.0828-2.2-2.2

Accommodations/Food industry (not retail, public admin. or gov.)-0.1313-5.6-5.6

Real Estate industry (not retail, government or education)-0.1736-3.8-3.8

Office industry (not education)-0.0216-2.2-2.2


Sheet1

Travel Condition EffectsCoefficientt Statistic

Departure Time Shift

Home to work distance-0.0034-7.6-7.6

5.5

Duration Shift-2.9

Home to work distance0.003011.1-11.8

-0.8

-1.0

-2.9

-4.7

-5.6

2.0

2.0

-4.2

-2.6

-6.7

-2.2

-5.6

-3.8

-2.2


Sheet1

Departure Time ConstantsCoefficientt Statistic

Departure at 5:00 AM-1.4399-30.7-3.1

Departure at 6:00 AM-0.5592-20.20.2

Departure at 7:00 AM0.00005.5

Departure at 8:00 AM-0.6278-21.7-2.9

Departure at 9:00 AM-1.7686-33.9-11.8

Departure at 10:00 AM-2.4517-32.3-0.8

Departure at 11:00 AM-2.7216-28.5-1.0

Departure at 12:00 PM-2.3876-22.1-2.9

Departure at 1:00 PM-2.4286-19.1-4.7

Departure at 2:00 PM-2.3040-15.6-5.6

Departure at 3:00 PM-2.7399-15.82.0

Departure at 4:00 PM-3.2063-16.22.0

Departure at 5:00 PM-4.1073-18.0-4.2

Departure at 6:00 PM-4.8950-18.8-2.6

Departure at 7:00 PM-5.8886-18.9-6.7

Departure at 8:00 PM-6.2850-17.6-2.2

Departure at 9:00 PM-6.9442-15.9-5.6

Departure at 10:00 PM-7.1616-14.2-3.8

Departure at 11:00 PM-6.6796-10.8-2.2


Sheet1

Duration ConstantsCoefficientt Statistic

Duration is less than 1 hour-8.8872-40.9-3.1

Duration is 1 hours-6.7645-38.90.2


Duration is 3 hours-4.6501-35.9-2.9







Duration is 10 hours0.00002.0









Tour Scheduling Model - Calibration

Chart1

0.09220942560.0912926875

0.19939058980.1975997681

0.32080767830.3184863421

0.16693568710.1662300412

0.04451614390.0434640794

0.02349465910.0236761447

0.01679913130.0167695239

0.02863546670.0280717377

0.02812239480.0269948433

0.02693783890.0269223601

0.01936905720.0185971379

0.01642527680.0155114213

0.00707163290.00830969

0.00508917130.0068444923

0.00155758040.0029407501

0.00169562460.0032306832

0.00069098750.0022003852

0.00019885810.0014600203

0.00005279550.0013978918

Target

Estimate

Departure Time Period

Tour Frequency (%)

Work Tour Departure Time

notes

Calibration targets do not include halo households

Run Description

Run #Model

auto ownershipworkplace locationgeneralized patternstop choicetour schedule

0

1new Ks

2new Ks

3

4new Ksupdated distance factors

5new Ksupdated distance factors

Person type bug fixed.

6new Ksupdated coefficients for number of tours

Corrected constant for periods with no observations; first work/school tour constrained to end at period 19

New AA inputs - recalibrated with revised logsums

8updated coefficients for number of tours and tour purposeupdated constantsupdated constants

9

10

Test if all known bugs corrected except for time accounting

11removed factorsupdated coefficients for number of tours and tour purposeuse estimated constants

hinc

SYNTHETIC POPULATION

Unit:Households

Universe:Model Area

Target Source:1999 Census (STF1)

Households by Household Income

AKRAkron

TARGETESTIMATEERROR

HH IncomeFreq.Pct.Freq.Pct.Freq.Pct.

0-20K56,60520.8%67,02624.6%18%18%

20K-40K70,33625.9%73,88627.2%5%5%

40K-60K55,87120.6%54,43620.0%-3%-3%

60K-75K30,39911.2%26,8899.9%-12%-12%

75K-100K28,97310.7%25,0319.2%-14%-14%

100K+29,38710.8%24,7999.1%-16%-16%

Total271,571100.0%272,067100.0%0%0%

CANCanton

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


0-20K32,93521.8%36,20125.4%10%16%

20K-40K42,69628.2%38,60927.0%-10%-4%

40K-60K32,85321.7%28,51820.0%-13%-8%

60K-75K16,09610.6%13,7119.6%-15%-10%

75K-100K13,6279.0%12,9409.1%-5%1%

100K+13,1408.7%12,8189.0%-2%3%

Total151,347100.0%142,797100.0%-6%0%

CINCincinnati

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


0-20K148,15919.8%178,95424.0%21%21%

20K-40K183,33824.5%200,09426.8%9%9%

40K-60K150,45520.1%152,03120.4%1%1%

60K-75K85,01611.4%75,63110.1%-11%-11%

75K-100K84,51211.3%70,3849.4%-17%-17%

100K+96,12812.9%69,1299.3%-28%-28%

Total747,609100.0%746,223100.0%-0%0%

CLECleveland

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


0-20K184,12121.6%209,66422.7%14%5%

20K-40K214,93025.2%247,63626.9%15%7%

40K-60K170,73620.0%192,27520.9%13%4%

60K-75K92,58510.9%95,15710.3%3%-5%

75K-100K92,19910.8%89,8209.7%-3%-10%

100K+98,55711.6%87,1409.5%-12%-18%

Total853,129100.0%921,692100.0%8%0%

COLColumbus

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


0-20K107,74318.7%140,72320.5%31%10%

20K-40K146,06925.3%182,49726.6%25%5%

40K-60K118,02020.5%146,64821.4%24%5%

60K-75K66,97711.6%75,24111.0%12%-5%

75K-100K65,21511.3%71,12810.4%9%-8%

100K+72,32712.5%68,57910.0%-5%-20%

Total576,351100.0%684,816100.0%19%0%

DAYDayton

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


0-20K61,27521.5%75,21825.1%23%16%

20K-40K75,12026.4%81,39227.1%8%3%

40K-60K57,40020.2%59,60819.9%4%-2%

60K-75K30,68910.8%29,3849.8%-4%-9%

75K-100K30,01310.5%27,3459.1%-9%-14%

100K+30,01610.5%27,1299.0%-10%-14%

Total284,513100.0%300,076100.0%5%0%

LIMLima

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


0-20K8,40727.1%8,25429.6%-2%9%

20K-40K8,88228.6%7,79128.0%-12%-2%

40K-60K6,51921.0%5,08518.2%-22%-13%

60K-75K2,8359.1%2,3368.4%-18%-8%

75K-100K2,4347.8%2,1847.8%-10%0%

100K+1,9866.4%2,2157.9%12%24%

Total31,062100.0%27,865100.0%-10%0%

MANMansfield

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


0-20K10,48624.8%10,16528.9%-3%17%

20K-40K12,30929.1%9,77327.8%-21%-4%

40K-60K9,11321.5%6,49018.5%-29%-14%

60K-75K3,9639.4%2,9718.5%-25%-10%

75K-100K3,5908.5%2,9228.3%-19%-2%

100K+2,8936.8%2,8278.0%-2%18%

Total42,354100.0%35,148100.0%-17%0%

MIAMiami

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


0-20K6,95818.1%9,21528.6%32%58%

20K-40K10,27026.6%8,92127.7%-13%4%

40K-60K8,81522.9%6,04018.7%-31%-18%

60K-75K4,72312.3%2,9789.2%-37%-25%

75K-100K4,15110.8%2,5167.8%-39%-28%

100K+3,6299.4%2,5928.0%-29%-15%

Total38,544100.0%32,262100.0%-16%0%

NEWNewark

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


0-20K9,05920.3%9,56932.0%6%57%

20K-40K12,09227.1%8,46328.3%-30%4%

40K-60K9,73321.8%5,21817.5%-46%-20%

60K-75K5,13711.5%2,3587.9%-54%-32%

75K-100K4,59010.3%2,0366.8%-56%-34%

100K+3,9458.9%2,2407.5%-43%-15%

Total44,555100.0%29,884100.0%-33%0%

SPRSpringfield

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


0-20K11,87922.4%13,44527.3%13%22%

20K-40K14,82027.9%13,51127.4%-9%-2%

40K-60K11,43121.5%9,29618.9%-19%-12%

60K-75K5,71310.8%4,5849.3%-20%-13%

75K-100K5,1399.7%4,1028.3%-20%-14%

100K+4,1597.8%4,3338.8%4%12%

Total53,142100.0%49,271100.0%-7%0%

STUSteubenville

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


0-20K19,44531.6%12,95332.3%-33%2%

20K-40K18,65030.3%11,14727.8%-40%-8%

40K-60K11,96819.5%7,02717.5%-41%-10%

60K-75K4,9328.0%3,2288.1%-35%0%

75K-100K3,6826.0%2,7246.8%-26%13%

100K+2,7824.5%2,9887.5%7%65%

Total61,460100.0%40,067100.0%-35%0%

TOLToledo

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


0-20K52,89024.4%57,08925.2%8%3%

20K-40K56,57126.1%61,15327.0%8%4%

40K-60K42,49019.6%44,89319.8%6%1%

60K-75K22,72310.5%22,0289.7%-3%-7%

75K-100K21,2699.8%20,4719.0%-4%-8%

100K+20,9489.7%20,5929.1%-2%-6%

Total216,890100.0%226,226100.0%4%0%

YOUYoungstown

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


0-20K47,68126.0%47,94926.7%1%3%

20K-40K51,84128.2%48,82627.1%-6%-4%

40K-60K36,81620.1%35,13719.5%-5%-3%

60K-75K18,1879.9%16,8669.4%-7%-5%

75K-100K15,7358.6%15,6208.7%-1%1%

100K+13,3187.3%15,4528.6%16%18%

Total183,578100.0%179,850100.0%-2%0%

NONERural

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


0-20K471,47924.8%427,49623.1%-9%-7%

20K-40K546,81728.8%499,93227.1%-9%-6%

40K-60K408,65321.5%379,13220.5%-7%-5%

60K-75K192,91610.1%192,07710.4%-0%2%

75K-100K160,1068.4%177,4569.6%11%14%

100K+121,3796.4%171,8629.3%42%46%

Total1,901,350100.0%1,847,955100.0%-3%0%

ALLModel Area

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


0-20K1,229,12222.5%1,303,92123.6%6%5%

20K-40K1,464,74226.8%1,493,63127.0%2%1%

40K-60K1,130,87220.7%1,131,83420.4%0%-1%

60K-75K582,89210.7%565,43910.2%-3%-4%

75K-100K535,2359.8%526,6799.5%-2%-3%

100K+514,5939.4%514,6959.3%0%-1%

Total5,457,455100.0%5,536,199100.0%1%0%

hsize


Unit:Households

Universe:Model Area

Target Source:1999 Census (STF1)

Households by Household Size

AKRAkron

TARGETESTIMATEERROR

HH SizeFreq.Pct.Freq.Pct.Freq.Pct.

174,79227.0%76,06728.0%2%4%

294,35034.1%91,86133.8%-3%-1%

345,29216.3%44,02616.2%-3%-1%

438,58113.9%36,37813.4%-6%-4%

516,4765.9%16,1906.0%-2%0%

65,2011.9%5,0661.9%-3%-1%

72,3460.8%2,4790.9%6%8%

Total277,038100.0%272,067100.0%-2%-0%

CANCanton

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


138,94426.1%40,44728.3%4%9%

251,79834.7%48,40533.9%-7%-2%

324,55316.4%22,72615.9%-7%-3%

420,78113.9%18,95713.3%-9%-5%

59,1196.1%8,3785.9%-8%-4%

62,8201.9%2,6421.9%-6%-2%

71,2860.9%1,2420.9%-3%1%

Total149,301100.0%142,797100.0%-4%0%

CINCincinnati

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


1203,26327.6%204,07227.3%0%-1%

2234,13431.8%251,06633.6%7%6%

3122,47216.6%122,48516.4%0%-1%

4106,52614.5%101,84913.6%-4%-6%

547,3676.4%45,6926.1%-4%-5%

615,5412.1%14,0521.9%-10%-11%

77,0241.0%7,0070.9%-0%-2%

Total736,327100.0%746,223100.0%1%0%

CLECleveland

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


1251,17629.4%243,31026.4%-3%-10%

2273,29232.0%308,91733.5%13%5%

3135,71115.9%154,83116.8%14%6%

4112,61613.2%129,06614.0%15%6%

552,1386.1%58,4316.3%12%4%

618,1482.1%18,1162.0%-0%-8%

710,0771.2%9,0211.0%-10%-17%

Total853,158100.0%921,692100.0%8%0%

COLColumbus

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


1163,69728.2%168,62424.6%3%-13%

2192,48833.2%227,24733.2%18%0%

395,84816.5%120,26417.6%25%6%

479,30213.7%102,18114.9%29%9%

533,1965.7%45,4346.6%37%16%

610,7471.9%14,0482.1%31%11%

75,2160.9%7,0181.0%35%14%

Total580,494100.0%684,816100.0%18%0%

DAYDayton

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


182,33228.9%84,03028.0%2%-3%

297,49834.3%101,79333.9%4%-1%

345,96416.2%48,24716.1%5%-0%

436,36712.8%39,90113.3%10%4%

515,1875.3%17,7765.9%17%11%

64,9181.7%5,6271.9%14%8%

72,2750.8%2,7010.9%19%13%

Total284,541100.0%300,075100.0%5%0%

LIMLima

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


18,69228.0%8,99732.3%4%15%

210,43433.6%9,50334.1%-9%2%

35,00416.1%4,01014.4%-20%-11%

44,05813.1%3,22711.6%-20%-11%

51,8756.0%1,4665.3%-22%-13%

66782.2%4441.6%-35%-27%

73231.0%2180.8%-33%-25%

Total31,064100.0%27,865100.0%-10%0%

MANMansfield

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


110,66427.7%11,13631.7%4%14%

213,85536.0%11,94534.0%-14%-5%

35,99515.6%5,29215.1%-12%-3%

44,89112.7%4,07911.6%-17%-9%

52,1355.5%1,8315.2%-14%-6%

66701.7%5551.6%-17%-9%

73190.8%3100.9%-3%7%

Total38,529100.0%35,148100.0%-9%0%

MIAMiami

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


18,90923.2%10,16831.5%14%36%

214,01536.5%11,00334.1%-21%-6%

36,38816.6%4,76014.8%-25%-11%

45,71614.9%3,81911.8%-33%-20%

52,4016.2%1,7115.3%-29%-15%

67121.9%5181.6%-27%-13%

72960.8%2830.9%-4%14%

Total38,437100.0%32,262100.0%-16%0%

NEWNewark

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


110,79124.2%10,12433.9%-6%40%

215,64835.1%10,30734.5%-34%-2%

37,60817.1%4,16313.9%-45%-18%

46,62614.9%3,13910.5%-53%-29%

52,6786.0%1,4614.9%-45%-19%

68301.9%4531.5%-45%-19%

73730.8%2360.8%-37%-6%

Total44,554100.0%29,883100.0%-33%0%

SPRSpringfield

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


114,09026.5%14,71529.9%4%13%

218,42434.7%16,94234.4%-8%-1%

38,92816.8%7,50515.2%-16%-9%

47,15713.5%6,11812.4%-15%-8%

53,0285.7%2,7525.6%-9%-2%

61,0011.9%8481.7%-15%-9%

75101.0%3910.8%-23%-17%

Total53,138100.0%49,271100.0%-7%0%

STUStuebenville

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


114,94128.0%13,70434.2%-8%22%

219,30436.1%13,62534.0%-29%-6%

39,09317.0%5,52613.8%-39%-19%

46,74612.6%4,35910.9%-35%-14%

52,3544.4%1,9284.8%-18%9%

67021.3%6061.5%-14%15%

73060.6%3190.8%4%39%

Total53,446100.0%40,067100.0%-25%0%

TOLToledo

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


164,45528.7%63,89628.2%-1%-1%

272,70532.3%76,29033.7%5%4%

335,74415.9%36,27716.0%1%1%

430,76713.7%30,07913.3%-2%-3%

514,1886.3%13,4906.0%-5%-6%

64,6762.1%4,0731.8%-13%-13%

72,2511.0%2,1210.9%-6%-6%

Total224,786100.0%226,226100.0%1%0%

YOUYoungstown

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


152,00628.5%52,97629.5%2%3%

260,85933.4%61,08634.0%0%2%

329,89416.4%27,88815.5%-7%-5%

424,12013.2%22,87212.7%-5%-4%

510,4635.7%10,3045.7%-2%-0%

63,4151.9%3,1281.7%-8%-7%

71,6130.9%1,5940.9%-1%0%

Total182,370100.0%179,848100.0%-1%0%

NONERural

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


1478,12125.1%491,21626.6%3%6%

2659,11334.6%617,74833.4%-6%-3%

3324,83417.0%310,22716.8%-4%-2%

4270,60614.2%259,06914.0%-4%-1%

5116,3286.1%116,3146.3%-0%3%

637,4632.0%35,7501.9%-5%-2%

719,2641.0%17,6211.0%-9%-6%

Total1,905,729100.0%1,847,945100.0%-3%0%

ALLModel Area

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


11,476,87327.1%1,493,48227.0%1%-0%

21,827,91733.5%1,857,73833.6%2%0%

3903,32816.6%918,22716.6%2%0%

4754,86013.8%765,09313.8%1%-0%

5328,9336.0%343,1586.2%4%3%

6107,5222.0%105,9261.9%-1%-3%

753,4791.0%52,5610.9%-2%-3%

Total5,452,912100.0%5,536,185100.0%2%0%

hwrkr


Unit:Households

Universe:Mostly Ohio State

Target Source:1999 CTPP

Households by Household Workers

AKRAkron

TARGETESTIMATEERROR

HH WorkersFreq.Pct.Freq.Pct.Freq.Pct.

069,83225.3%80,57529.6%15%17%

1102,81237.3%94,73334.8%-8%-7%

284,97830.8%79,52229.2%-6%-5%

317,9386.5%17,2376.3%-4%-3%

40.0%00.0%

50.0%00.0%

60.0%00.0%

Total275,560100.0%272,067100.0%-1%0%

CANCanton

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


00.0%44,91731.5%

10.0%48,13133.7%

20.0%40,85028.6%

30.0%8,8996.2%

40.0%00.0%

50.0%00.0%

60.0%00.0%

Total00.0%142,797100.0%

CINCincinnatiTarget excludes KY??

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


0147,42525.2%206,95127.7%40%10%

1224,46038.4%266,50135.7%19%-7%

2180,90031.0%224,51530.1%24%-3%

331,5105.4%48,2566.5%53%20%

40.0%00.0%

50.0%00.0%

60.0%00.0%

Total584,295100.0%746,223100.0%28%0%

CLECleveland

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


0237,33528.2%228,68524.8%-4%-12%

1318,56037.8%342,49137.2%8%-2%

2243,16028.9%288,64631.3%19%8%

342,9655.1%61,8706.7%44%32%

40.0%00.0%

50.0%00.0%

60.0%00.0%

Total842,020100.0%921,692100.0%9%0%

COLColumbusCOLColumbus + Newark

TARGETESTIMATEERRORTARGETESTIMATEERROR

HH WorkersFreq.Pct.Freq.Pct.Freq.Pct.HH WorkersFreq.Pct.Freq.Pct.Freq.Pct.

0112,27120.9%132,69419.4%18%-7%0112,27120.9%146,87120.6%31%-2%

1216,86140.4%271,99939.7%25%-2%1216,86140.4%279,94139.2%29%-3%

2179,91433.5%229,77133.6%28%0%2179,91433.5%236,18933.0%31%-1%

327,9345.2%50,3527.4%80%41%327,9345.2%51,6997.2%85%39%

40.0%00.0%40.0%00.0%

50.0%00.0%50.0%00.0%

60.0%00.0%60.0%00.0%

Total536,980100.0%684,816100.0%28%0%Total536,980100.0%714,700100.0%33%0%

DAYDaytonDAYDayton + Miami

TARGETESTIMATEERRORTARGETESTIMATEERROR

HH WorkersFreq.Pct.Freq.Pct.Freq.Pct.HH WorkersFreq.Pct.Freq.Pct.Freq.Pct.

086,76526.9%90,78130.3%5%13%086,76526.9%103,59631.2%19%16%

1121,25037.5%103,56334.5%-15%-8%1121,25037.5%113,18734.1%-7%-9%

296,25029.8%87,20529.1%-9%-2%296,25029.8%95,31228.7%-1%-4%

318,7305.8%18,5276.2%-1%6%318,7305.8%20,2436.1%8%5%

40.0%00.0%40.0%00.0%

50.0%00.0%50.0%00.0%

60.0%00.0%60.0%00.0%

Total322,995100.0%300,076100.0%-7%0%Total322,995100.0%332,338100.0%3%0%

LIMLima

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


09,46030.8%11,74542.1%24%37%

111,17936.4%8,06829.0%-28%-21%

28,18226.7%6,55923.5%-20%-12%

31,8576.1%1,4935.4%-20%-11%

40.0%00.0%

50.0%00.0%

60.0%00.0%

Total30,678100.0%27,865100.0%-9%0%

MANMansfield

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


014,03528.3%13,89839.5%-1%40%

117,61035.5%10,64930.3%-40%-15%

214,95530.2%8,68324.7%-42%-18%

32,9506.0%1,9185.5%-35%-8%

40.0%00.0%

50.0%00.0%

60.0%00.0%

Total49,550100.0%35,148100.0%-29%0%

MIAMiamiMIA Target data included with DAY

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


00.0%12,81539.7%

10.0%9,62429.8%

20.0%8,10725.1%

30.0%1,7165.3%

40.0%00.0%

50.0%00.0%

60.0%00.0%

Total00.0%32,262100.0%

NEWNewarkNEW Target data included with COL

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


00.0%14,17747.4%

10.0%7,94226.6%

20.0%6,41821.5%

30.0%1,3474.5%

40.0%00.0%

50.0%00.0%

60.0%00.0%

Total00.0%29,884100.0%

SPRSpringfield

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


016,57029.2%17,74336.0%7%23%

119,81534.9%15,79032.0%-20%-8%

216,76029.6%13,06126.5%-22%-10%

33,5706.3%2,6775.4%-25%-14%

40.0%00.0%

50.0%00.0%

60.0%00.0%

Total56,715100.0%49,271100.0%-13%0%

STUStuebenville

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


019,84337.3%18,82947.0%-5%26%

117,76033.4%10,71126.7%-40%-20%

213,26624.9%8,75421.8%-34%-12%

32,3134.3%1,7734.4%-23%2%

40.0%00.0%

50.0%00.0%

60.0%00.0%

Total53,182100.0%40,067100.0%-25%0%

TOLToledo

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


061,53527.6%69,42530.7%13%11%

182,53037.0%77,43234.2%-6%-8%

265,12829.2%65,23828.8%0%-1%

313,8166.2%14,1316.2%2%1%

40.0%00.0%

50.0%00.0%

60.0%00.0%

Total223,009100.0%226,226100.0%1%0%

YOUYoungstown

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


059,64933.0%61,46034.2%3%4%

164,29335.5%58,59932.6%-9%-8%

247,03026.0%49,23227.4%5%5%

310,0345.5%10,5595.9%5%6%

40.0%00.0%

50.0%00.0%

60.0%00.0%

Total181,006100.0%179,850100.0%-1%0%

NONERuralTARGET does not include halo rural areas

TARGETESTIMATEERROR


0323,76427.4%467,63825.3%44%-8%

1398,39733.7%684,56237.0%72%10%

2356,05730.1%572,59531.0%61%3%

3102,8068.7%123,1606.7%20%-23%

40.0%00.0%

50.0%00.0%

60.0%00.0%

Total1,181,024100.0%1,847,955100.0%56%0%

ALLModel AreaTOTAL WORKERS

TARGETESTIMATEERRORTargetEstimate


01,158,48426.7%1,472,33326.6%27%-0%00

11,595,52736.8%2,010,79536.3%26%-1%1,595,5272,010,795

21,306,58030.1%1,689,15630.5%29%1%2,613,1603,378,312

3276,4236.4%363,9156.6%32%3%829,2691,091,745

400.0%00.0%00

500.0%00.0%00

600.0%00.0%00

Total4,337,014100.0%5,536,199100.0%28%0%5,037,9566,480,852

excluding halo rural:983,000avg:1.1621.171

Total4,337,0144,553,1995%

ALLModel Area - Target source is PUMSTOTAL WORKERS

TARGETESTIMATEERRORTargetEstimate


01,510,94726.6%1,472,33326.6%-3%0%00

12,063,52936.3%2,010,79536.3%-3%0%2,063,5292,010,795

21,733,45730.5%1,689,15630.5%-3%-0%3,466,9143,378,312

3299,8805.3%292,2175.3%-3%0%899,640876,651

462,3051.1%60,7111.1%-3%-0%249,220242,844

59,4220.2%9,1810.2%-3%-0%47,11045,905

61,8540.0%1,8060.0%-3%-0%11,12410,836

Total5,681,394100.0%5,536,199100.0%-3%0%6,737,5376,565,343

avg:1.1861.186

age


Unit:Persons

Universe:Model Area

Persons by Age

ALLAll MPOs & Rural Areas

TARGETESTIMATEERROR

AgeFreq.Pct.Freq.Pct.Freq.Pct.

0-4754,9306.6%748,7706.8%-0.8%2.8%

5-172,133,40918.8%2,108,20619.3%-1.2%2.5%

18-241,056,5449.3%903,0858.2%-14.5%-11.4%

26-645,900,50052.0%5,710,11952.2%-3.2%0.3%

65+1,507,75713.3%1,478,49413.5%-1.9%1.7%

Total11,353,140100.0%10,948,674100.0%-3.6%0.0%

student


Unit:Students

Universe:Ohio State

Students by Age

TARGETESTIMATEERROR

AgeFreq.Pct.Freq.Pct.Freq.Pct.

3-4145,3824.8%139,5804.9%-4.0%2.4%

5-172,068,42268.6%2,042,24972.2%-1.3%5.3%

18+800,65626.6%645,13222.8%-19.4%-14.1%

Total3,014,460100.0%2,826,961100.0%-6.2%0.0%

School Tours2,397,3582,335,500

Tours/Student0.800.83

ao

AUTO OWNERSHIP

Unit:Households

Universe:Ohio State

Table 1Auto Ownership

TARGETESTIMATEError

FrequencyFrequency

AutosAutosCINCLECOLSMPONONETOTALCINCLECOLSMPONONETOTALTOTAL

0064,06794,02747,830106,13374,178386,2352,3834,6162,2536,3653,62619,243-95%

11193,080312,905217,062455,892313,9211,492,8619,36917,8979,05522,41917,76876,508-95%

22235,691322,702238,461531,411426,5651,754,83011,39222,39411,53024,93021,30191,547-95%

33+99,102123,53078,512244,700265,563811,4084,9929,2715,04411,31012,69443,311-95%

TotalTotal591,940853,165581,8651,338,1371,080,2274,445,33428,13654,17827,88265,02455,389230,609-95%

PercentPercent

Autos per HouseholdCINCLECOLSMPONONETargetCINCLECOLSMPONONEEstimateErrorK0DeltaNewBaselined

011%11%8%8%7%8.7%8.5%8.5%8.1%9.8%6.5%8.3%-4%0.0000.0440.0440.000

133%37%37%34%29%33.6%33.3%33.0%32.5%34.5%32.1%33.2%-1%5.5979845940.0185.6165.572

240%38%41%40%39%39.5%40.5%41.3%41.4%38.3%38.5%39.7%1%7.368-0.0097.3597.315

3+17%14%13%18%25%18.3%17.7%17.1%18.1%17.4%22.9%18.8%3%11.214-0.03511.17911.134

Total

wflow

WORKPLACE LOCATION MODEL

Unit:WorkersWorkers

Universe:Model AreaModel Area

All non-Ohio counties represented as 99000All non-Ohio counties represented as 99000

Target Source:CTPP 2000CTPP 2000

lookupOrgCountyDestCountyTargetEstimateOrgCountyDestCountyTargetEstimate

3903539035390353903556590538835390353903556590538835

3904939049390493904950839322740390493904950839322740

3906139061390613906133624613729390613906133624613729

39113391133911339113211194897939113391132111948979

3915339153391533915319371212115391533915319371212115

39095390953909539095175374639839095390951753746398

39151391513915139151140537793639151391511405377936

390173901739017390179048134183901739017904813418

390933909339093390938881646963909339093888164696

390993909939099390997668233053909939099766823305

390853908539085390857286852663908539085728685266

391553915539155391557106136043915539155710613604

990003906199000390616122209900039061612220

390173906139017390614798436663901739061479843666

391393913939139391394779024953913939139477902495

390233902339023390234513717033902339023451371703

390893908939089390894241020283908939089424102028

390573905739057390574050611033905739057405061103

390253906139025390614009038933902539061400903893

391693916939169391693973924873916939169397392487

390033900339003390033969849993900339003396984999

391333913339133391333935112013913339133393511201

390933903539093390353688835633909339035368883563

390853903539085390353674130563908539035367413056

391033910339103391033568427143910339103356842714

390253902539025390253545414823902539025354541482

391533903539153390353447618103915339035344761810

3917339173391733917334108683391733917334108683

390073900739007390073296416103900739007329641610

390413904939041390493170825913904139049317082591

3910939109391093910931175595391093910931175595

391573915739157391573080716923915739157308071692

390293902939029390292991524783902939029299152478

391193911939119391192987512333911939119298751233

3916539165391653916529470847391653916529470847

3906339063390633906329157729390633906329157729

390453904939045390492825911713904539049282591171

390433904339043390432765020423904339043276502042

390453904539045390452674316473904539045267431647

391033903539103390352657233103910339035265723310

390573911339057391132492515833905739113249251583

3911339057391133905724214780391133905724214780

390893904939089390492375514493908939049237551449

3910139101391013910122691431391013910122691431

391453914539145391452192013943914539145219201394

391413914139141391412141512343914139141214151234

391653906139165390612134718043916539061213471804

3900939009390093900921279547390093900921279547

3904139041390413904121138689390413904121138689

3915139153391513915321094984391513915321094984

3914339143391433914320636732391433914320636732

390259900039025990002056503902599000205650

3916739167391673916719935299391673916719935299

3908139081390813908119772660390813908119772660

3917339095391733909519504594391733909519504594

390993915539099391551921010213909939155192101021

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The Ohio Statewide Short Distance Travel Models

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Transcript of The Ohio Statewide Short Distance Travel Models