THE OHIO NEWSPAPER POLL

THE OHIO NEWSPAPER POLL

By: Eric W. Rademacher, PhD October 24, 2012 Kimberly Downing, PhD

Institute for Policy Research (513) 556-3304

INTERNAL MEMO: NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Ohio Newspaper Poll Methodology

These findings are based on the most recent Ohio Newspaper Poll conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati between October 18 and October 23, 2012. A random sample of 1015 likely voters from throughout the state was interviewed by landline and cellular telephone. In 95 of 100 cases, the statewide estimates will be accurate to plus or minus 3.1 percent.

In addition to sampling error, there are other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording or context effects that can introduce error or bias. Reported percentages may not total to 100% due to rounding. Results reported for subgroups have potential for somewhat larger variation than those for the entire population. Caution should be used in interpreting the findings of specific subgroups. For example, margins of error for subgroup estimates with low numbers of interviews (e.g., Independents, residents of Southeast Ohio) may be substantially larger than those for the overall population (Independents +/- 10%; Southeast Ohio +/- 12%).

The final dataset is comprised of interviews conducted by both landline and cellular telephone. The data have been weighted to correct for potential sampling biases on sex of respondent and region of residence, using voting data published by the U.S. Census and the Ohio Secretary of State. This weighting strategy is similar to that used in election projections for The Ohio Poll. The Ohio Newspaper Poll does not use self-identified partisanship in its weighting methodology. Overall, this Poll found a higher distribution of self-identified Democrats (47%) than Republicans (44%) in the likely voter pool; the remaining 10 percent identified themselves as Independents.

2012 Presidential Election

ROMNEY AND RYAN OBAMA AND BIDEN OTHER DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters

.Age of Respondent 18 to 29

30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.

Race African - AmericanWhite.

Sex MaleFemale.

Education Less than high school*High school graduateSome collegeCollege graduate.

Party Identification DemocratIndependentRepublican.

Geographical Region Northeast OhioNorthwest OhioCentral OhioSoutheast Ohio*Southwest Ohio.

Enthusiasm Very EnthusiasticSomewhat EnthusiasticNot so / Not Enthusiastic.

49% 49% 1% 1% 976

33% 66% 1% 8149% 46% 2% 2% 19150% 49% 0% 1% 36153% 46% 1% 326

1% 98% 1% 8955% 43% 1% 1% 844

55% 43% 1% 1% 46344% 55% 0% 1% 512

25% 75% 4448% 51% 0% 0% 29949% 49% 1% 2% 26853% 45% 1% 2% 363

6% 93% 1% 44744% 46% 6% 4% 8294% 5% 0% 1% 426

45% 54% 0% 1% 39153% 46% 1% 12047% 51% 1% 1% 16552% 45% 2% 2% 5654% 43% 0% 2% 244

54% 45% 0% 49742% 57% 0% 1% 28345% 48% 3% 4% 187

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2012 Senate Election

MANDEL BROWN OTHER DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters


30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.


Sex MaleFemale.




Enthusiasm Very EnthusiasticSomewhat EnthusiasticNot so / Not Enthusiastic.

47% 51% 1% 2% 957

40% 56% 4% 8347% 49% 2% 2% 18546% 52% 0% 2% 35749% 50% 1% 0% 316

6% 93% 1% 8752% 46% 1% 1% 829

53% 44% 1% 2% 45541% 57% 2% 503

39% 61% 4444% 53% 1% 2% 29449% 48% 1% 1% 25748% 50% 1% 1% 361

8% 91% 0% 0% 44138% 54% 8% 8290% 9% 1% 1% 413

43% 54% 1% 2% 37749% 50% 1% 11845% 52% 1% 2% 16243% 57% 5753% 44% 0% 2% 242

54% 45% 0% 1% 49138% 60% 1% 1% 27642% 53% 1% 4% 183

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Question 5: Would you say you are … very enthusiastic about this year’s election, somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

VERY ENTHUSIASTIC SOMEWHAT ENTHUSIASTIC NOT SO ENTHUSIASTIC NOT ENTHUSIASTIC AT ALL CountOhio Likely Voters


30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.


Sex MaleFemale.




50% 28% 13% 8% 1006

41% 41% 15% 2% 8537% 38% 15% 10% 19851% 25% 13% 11% 37158% 24% 11% 6% 336

65% 28% 5% 3% 9249% 29% 13% 9% 872

50% 27% 13% 9% 47750% 29% 13% 8% 529

47% 25% 17% 12% 4549% 30% 14% 7% 30748% 29% 15% 8% 27653% 28% 10% 9% 376

48% 33% 11% 8% 45823% 24% 37% 16% 9458% 25% 11% 7% 430

52% 27% 12% 9% 40343% 33% 14% 10% 12454% 30% 10% 6% 16742% 28% 17% 13% 6250% 28% 14% 7% 250

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Question 8: Which of the following describes your vote for Romney? [ASKED ONLY OF THOSE VOTING FOR ROMNEY]

DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters

.Age of Respondent 18 to 29*

30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.

Race African - American*White.

Sex MaleFemale.


Party Identification Democrat*Independent*Republican.

Geographical Region Northeast OhioNorthwest Ohio*Central OhioSoutheast Ohio*Southwest Ohio.

60% 23% 17% 0% 475

55% 34% 11% 2752% 25% 23% 9357% 25% 18% 17967% 17% 15% 1% 171

100% 160% 23% 17% 0% 460

56% 24% 20% 25164% 22% 14% 0% 225

46% 34% 20% 1158% 21% 21% 1% 14462% 23% 15% 13060% 23% 16% 189

33% 40% 23% 4% 2839% 33% 28% 3563% 21% 16% 401

59% 23% 18% 17360% 18% 20% 2% 6364% 26% 11% 7859% 7% 34% 2959% 26% 15% 132

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Question 9: Which of the following describes your vote for Obama? [ASKED ONLY OF THOSE VOTING FOR OBAMA]



30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.


Sex MaleFemale.


Party Identification DemocratIndependent*Republican*.


63% 22% 14% 0% 479

63% 27% 10% 5458% 27% 15% 8965% 19% 16% 17765% 23% 12% 1% 151

84% 7% 8% 8758% 26% 15% 0% 366

56% 25% 18% 1% 19969% 21% 11% 280

70% 22% 8% 3361% 20% 19% 1% 15361% 24% 14% 12967% 23% 10% 162

68% 20% 11% 0% 41433% 37% 29% 3822% 39% 39% 19

60% 24% 17% 21060% 21% 19% 5578% 11% 10% 1% 8461% 27% 12% 2561% 29% 10% 105

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Question 12: Which of the following describes your vote for Mandel? [ASKED ONLY OF THOSE VOTING FOR MANDEL]



30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.

Race African - American*White.

Sex MaleFemale.


Party Identification Democrat*Independent*Republican.

Geographical Region Northeast OhioNorthwest Ohio*Central Ohio*Southeast Ohio*Southwest Ohio.

36% 34% 30% 0% 445

24% 56% 20% 3230% 36% 33% 1% 8734% 37% 30% 16645% 25% 30% 154

58% 42% 536% 34% 30% 0% 425

33% 34% 33% 23940% 33% 27% 1% 206

42% 42% 16% 1743% 33% 23% 1% 13030% 36% 33% 1% 12634% 32% 34% 172

22% 55% 22% 3627% 44% 29% 3137% 31% 31% 0% 368

35% 31% 34% 16332% 44% 24% 5834% 37% 29% 7244% 32% 24% 2438% 31% 30% 1% 127

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Question 13: Which of the following describes your vote for Brown? [ASKED ONLY OF THOSE VOTING FOR BROWN]



30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.


Sex MaleFemale.


Party Identification DemocratIndependent*Republican*.


51% 27% 21% 1% 487

36% 42% 23% 4737% 33% 29% 1% 9056% 25% 18% 18457% 22% 19% 2% 157

60% 27% 11% 2% 7950% 26% 23% 1% 384

51% 26% 22% 0% 20151% 27% 21% 1% 286

37% 28% 35% 2654% 23% 22% 2% 15548% 32% 19% 12553% 27% 20% 1% 180

55% 25% 19% 1% 40133% 43% 23% 4425% 35% 40% 36

58% 23% 19% 20543% 33% 22% 2% 5946% 27% 25% 2% 8356% 26% 18% 3344% 31% 24% 1% 107

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Question 14: How much, if anything, have you heard about State Issue 2?

A LOT A LITTLE NOTHING AT ALL DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters


30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.


Sex MaleFemale.




21% 54% 24% 0% 1011

13% 45% 42% 8613% 49% 39% 20022% 53% 24% 1% 37127% 61% 12% 0% 337

13% 57% 29% 1% 9322% 54% 23% 0% 875

25% 52% 23% 48118% 56% 25% 1% 530

6% 60% 34% 4518% 55% 27% 1% 30718% 54% 28% 0% 27928% 54% 19% 378

20% 54% 25% 0% 45918% 52% 30% 9622% 56% 22% 0% 430

20% 56% 24% 40324% 55% 20% 2% 12425% 52% 22% 1% 17114% 57% 29% 6221% 52% 27% 252

Page 8 of 18

Question 15: If the election were held today . . . would you vote 'Yes' or 'No' on the constitutional amendment (State Issue 2)?

YES NO NEITHER / NOT SURE / DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters


30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.


Sex MaleFemale.




Heard About State Issue 2 A lotA littleNothing.

28% 53% 19% 979

29% 49% 22% 8232% 41% 27% 19128% 56% 16% 36625% 58% 17% 325

32% 44% 24% 8828% 54% 18% 848

29% 58% 13% 46727% 48% 25% 511

19% 56% 26% 4126% 53% 20% 30426% 55% 19% 27032% 51% 17% 363

41% 39% 20% 44433% 49% 18% 9113% 69% 17% 419

25% 54% 20% 39128% 58% 14% 12235% 46% 19% 16330% 48% 21% 5827% 54% 19% 245

44% 52% 5% 21225% 57% 19% 53421% 45% 33% 227

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Question 16a: Who do you think would do the best job handling foreign policy, Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

ROMNEY OBAMA EQUAL / NEITHER DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters


30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.


Sex MaleFemale.




46% 50% 3% 1% 1010

32% 65% 2% 1% 8548% 48% 3% 1% 20045% 51% 4% 0% 37150% 46% 3% 1% 338

2% 97% 1% 9351% 45% 4% 1% 874

51% 46% 3% 0% 48041% 54% 4% 1% 530

24% 71% 5% 4543% 51% 4% 2% 30947% 49% 3% 1% 27850% 47% 3% 1% 375

7% 89% 2% 1% 46036% 51% 12% 1% 9489% 8% 3% 1% 432

44% 52% 4% 1% 40445% 47% 5% 3% 12447% 51% 2% 16946% 48% 5% 2% 6248% 48% 3% 1% 251

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Question 16b: Who do you think would do the best job handling the economy, Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

ROMNEY OBAMA EQUAL / NEITHER DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters


30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.


Sex MaleFemale.




51% 45% 3% 1% 1008

39% 57% 3% 1% 8553% 43% 4% 0% 19951% 46% 2% 1% 37153% 42% 4% 1% 337

5% 93% 2% 1% 9356% 40% 3% 1% 872

58% 39% 3% 1% 47945% 51% 4% 1% 529

28% 65% 7% 4548% 48% 4% 1% 30951% 45% 4% 1% 27856% 41% 2% 1% 374

9% 87% 4% 0% 45754% 36% 9% 2% 9594% 4% 2% 0% 432

47% 49% 4% 0% 40254% 43% 3% 1% 12450% 47% 2% 1% 16952% 45% 3% 6256% 39% 4% 1% 252

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30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.


Sex MaleFemale.




29% 21% 48% 1% 1008

25% 14% 60% 1% 8524% 22% 54% 1% 20031% 21% 48% 1% 37130% 23% 44% 3% 336

51% 1% 47% 1% 9326% 23% 49% 2% 872

27% 26% 45% 1% 48031% 16% 51% 2% 528

33% 7% 57% 2% 4528% 18% 51% 4% 30730% 23% 46% 1% 27829% 23% 47% 376

54% 3% 42% 1% 45829% 22% 49% 963% 39% 57% 1% 431

32% 21% 44% 2% 40331% 17% 51% 2% 12429% 19% 50% 1% 16822% 27% 50% 2% 6225% 22% 52% 1% 252

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Question 18: Would you say the presidential debates will make you more likely to vote for Romney, Obama, or not make a difference?



30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.


Sex MaleFemale.




23% 14% 62% 2% 1010

15% 28% 54% 2% 8624% 12% 63% 2% 20022% 12% 65% 1% 37225% 13% 60% 2% 335

2% 28% 69% 2% 9325% 12% 61% 1% 874

26% 11% 62% 1% 47919% 17% 62% 2% 531

19% 32% 47% 2% 4521% 14% 63% 3% 31022% 14% 62% 1% 27825% 11% 62% 1% 374

3% 26% 68% 2% 45819% 11% 65% 5% 9544% 1% 55% 0% 431

20% 17% 62% 1% 40324% 13% 59% 4% 12526% 15% 58% 1% 17014% 10% 75% 2% 6126% 11% 61% 2% 251

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Question 19: Would you say Romney's 47% comments will make you more likely to vote for Romney, Obama, or not make a difference?



30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.


Sex MaleFemale.




14% 32% 54% 0% 1012

16% 36% 48% 8612% 32% 55% 1% 20014% 31% 55% 0% 37316% 31% 53% 0% 336

61% 38% 1% 9316% 28% 55% 0% 876

18% 28% 54% 1% 48111% 35% 54% 0% 531

16% 32% 53% 4515% 31% 53% 0% 31014% 33% 52% 0% 27813% 31% 55% 1% 376

2% 59% 39% 4578% 33% 58% 96

28% 3% 68% 1% 432

15% 33% 52% 1% 40416% 29% 53% 2% 12510% 34% 55% 16916% 33% 51% 6214% 30% 57% 252

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Question 20: We often hear from candidates that voters should be scared if their opponent wins the election. Which of the following best describes you?



30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.


Sex MaleFemale.




29% 29% 39% 3% 0% 1010

13% 28% 57% 1% 8625% 24% 47% 4% 20030% 30% 37% 3% 1% 37137% 30% 31% 2% 0% 336

1% 63% 34% 2% 9333% 25% 39% 3% 0% 874

32% 23% 44% 2% 47928% 35% 34% 4% 1% 532

24% 48% 28% 4528% 31% 38% 2% 0% 30932% 31% 34% 3% 0% 27829% 24% 43% 3% 0% 376

2% 57% 39% 2% 0% 45821% 18% 54% 7% 9660% 2% 35% 2% 0% 431

28% 34% 35% 3% 0% 40328% 27% 39% 5% 1% 12427% 28% 42% 3% 17122% 27% 48% 2% 2% 6136% 22% 40% 2% 252

Page 15 of 18

Question 21: Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Kasich is handling his job as governor?

CountOhio Likely Voters


30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.


Sex MaleFemale.




23% 28% 5% 9% 3% 13% 18% 993

17% 34% 13% 13% 2% 13% 8% 8219% 33% 5% 10% 3% 16% 15% 19720% 29% 5% 7% 4% 13% 21% 37031% 24% 4% 9% 3% 13% 17% 328

1% 23% 4% 16% 5% 16% 35% 9126% 29% 6% 8% 3% 13% 16% 859

28% 29% 5% 6% 3% 12% 17% 47519% 28% 6% 11% 4% 15% 19% 517

22% 25% 5% 16% 4% 10% 18% 4420% 29% 5% 11% 3% 14% 18% 30622% 28% 6% 9% 5% 14% 15% 27227% 28% 5% 6% 2% 12% 20% 369

4% 25% 5% 11% 4% 20% 31% 45124% 30% 6% 8% 2% 15% 14% 9443% 32% 6% 7% 2% 6% 4% 423

23% 26% 5% 10% 4% 13% 19% 39615% 39% 10% 5% 3% 13% 15% 12328% 32% 4% 4% 2% 12% 18% 16717% 20% 6% 11% 3% 15% 26% 6226% 27% 4% 13% 3% 14% 14% 245

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Question 22: Would you say Kasich deserves a second term as governor, or not?



30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.


Sex MaleFemale.




52% 37% 11% 982

49% 36% 15% 7851% 36% 13% 19550% 39% 11% 36457% 34% 9% 329

31% 58% 12% 9155% 34% 10% 849

56% 34% 9% 47048% 39% 13% 513

56% 37% 7% 4450% 38% 12% 30250% 38% 12% 26955% 35% 10% 365

27% 60% 12% 44753% 34% 13% 9178% 13% 9% 420

51% 37% 12% 39259% 32% 9% 12355% 38% 7% 16438% 49% 13% 6152% 34% 13% 243

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Question 23: Do you think the casinos will be mostly good, mostly bad, or a mix of both for Ohio?

MOSTLY GOOD FOR OHIO MOSTLY BAD FOR OHIO DON'T KNOW CountOhio Likely Voters


30 to 4546 to 6465 and over.


Sex MaleFemale.




24% 17% 58% 1% 1011

34% 11% 55% 8627% 8% 64% 1% 20022% 18% 60% 1% 37322% 21% 54% 3% 336

24% 7% 68% 1% 9224% 17% 57% 2% 876

27% 17% 55% 1% 48121% 17% 61% 1% 530

27% 16% 54% 3% 4526% 21% 52% 2% 30926% 14% 59% 2% 27720% 15% 63% 1% 377

29% 10% 61% 1% 45918% 17% 61% 4% 9420% 23% 56% 1% 432

25% 17% 56% 2% 40523% 15% 62% 1% 12421% 15% 64% 1% 16920% 22% 56% 2% 6225% 17% 56% 1% 251

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THE OHIO NEWSPAPER POLL

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