The Nuclear Club
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Transcript of The Nuclear Club
The Nuclear Club
Who’s in? Who’s out?
And where do we go from here?
From Einstein to the A-Bomb
• 1930’s- Early research into atomic fission.
• 1940’s- US and Germany race to develop nuclear weapons.
• “Manhattan Project” in US
1945
• 1st US test of atomic bomb [“Trinity”]
• US drops 2 atomic bombs on Japan to end WWII
The Cold War: 1945 – 1990
• Massive nuclear build-up by US and USSR• Espionage• “Mutually assured destruction” [MAD]
1950s
• US and Soviet Union develop more powerful nuclear fusion weapons. [Thermonuclear]
• Atmospheric testing
IAEA: UN Nuclear watchdog
• Founded 1957 – International Atomic Energy Administration• Nuclear verification and security; safety; technology transfer.• Nuclear safety after Three Mile Island and Chernobyl.• Challenges possible proliferation - North Korea, Iraq, Iran
http://www.iaea.org/
Cold War nuclear crisis: 1962
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty:
• Non-proliferation
• Disarmament
• The right to peacefully use nuclear
technology
• 181 nations have signed
• Non-signers: India, Pakistan, Israel
• North Korea – withdrew in 2003
http://www.fas.org/nuke/control/npt/
NPT: Issues
• Reviewed every 5 years
• 2000 – Nuclear powers agreed to eliminate nuclear arsenals
• 2005 – Concerns by non-aligned nations that NATO nuclear-sharing agreement violates NPT.
• Nuclear powers not doing enough to reduce their arsenals
Today: Nuclear numbers
Emerging threats: Direct nuclear confrontations
• India – Pakistan
• US – Iran
• Israel – Arab nations
• North Korea – Japan/China/US/Others?
• China – North Korea? Russia?
Emerging threats
• Post-Cold-War “first-use” policy by NATO and Russia
• Continuing modernization of nuclear arsenals
Emerging threats
• Security and safety of nuclear stockpiles
• “Loose nukes”
Emerging threats
• Nuclear espionage • Illegal sales• Smuggling
In 2004, Dr. A.Q. Kahn, of Pakistan, admitted to selling nuclear technologies to Libya, Iran and North Korea
Nuclear Terrorism
• Dirty bombs
• High explosives plus radioactive material
Emerging threats:New nuclear nations
Emerging threats:Accidents
Nuclear weapons: The next generation
• “Small” nuclear weapons
• “Bunker-buster”• US - $5 billion per year for weapons
research, development, and production $3.8 billion during the Cold War.
Steps to prevent nuclear terrorism
• Secure nuclear warheads and materials
• Stop nuclear smuggling• Stabilize employment
for nuclear personnel• Monitor nuclear
stockpiles• Reduce nuclear
stockpiles• End production http://www.nti.org/
How much progress has been made so far? The good news…
• Glaring security gaps have been addressed in many places
• Thousands of bombs-worth of nuclear materials have been destroyed
• Radiation-detection equipment in place at many border crossings around the world
• Many nuclear scientists have been re-employed in non-weapons programs.
Progress: the bad news…
• US/India nuclear deal includes no provision for nuclear security
• Secure storage facility in Russia still empty
• Thousands of nuclear weapons and materials in insecure buildings and bunkers
• Thousands of nuclear workers with potentially dangerous nuclear knowledge do not have legitimate jobs
• 10,000+ bombs’-worth of plutonium still out there
Some questions to consider
• Why should any country be banned from having nuclear weapons?
• Is it the inherent right of a country to develop any weapons it feels necessary to defend itself?
• Is it even possible to ban a particular category of weapons?
• If you keep a country out of the Nuclear Club, do you lose the ability to influence its decisions regarding nuclear weapons?
More questions
• If the US—the world’s strongest power—feels the need to continue developing nukes, how can we expect less powerful countries to resist getting them?
• Can nuclear weapons themselves be viewed as a deterrent to war?
• Or, is “deterrence,” in effect, an incentive for more proliferation?
• What are the ethical and moral considerations for scientists who help develop new nuclear technologies?
• What role could your country play in making today’s nuclear world safer?
The Nuclear Club:What’s next?