The Northwest Corner of the Atlantic and Rapid Climate Change Matthew Hecht with Frank Bryan, Rick...
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Transcript of The Northwest Corner of the Atlantic and Rapid Climate Change Matthew Hecht with Frank Bryan, Rick...
The Northwest Corner of the Atlantic and Rapid Climate Change
Matthew Hechtwith
Frank Bryan, Rick Smith, Mathew Maltrud and contributions from others
…or, how our work in eddy-resolving ocean modeling applies to the question
How to better characterize thermohaline circulation (THC) stability in terms of response to– greenhouse gas forcing– possible increases in fresh water flux (Greenland)
and, perhaps
• Estimation of stability of the THC may present an opportunity for more advanced approaches to ocean modeling
we first review• What is known about modes of North Atlantic circulation– Switching between modes that may have happened in the past
Modes of Atlantic THC
Modern (also Dansgaard-Oeschger?)
Glacial (Atlantic Intermediate but no
Atlantic Deep Water)
Heinrich event shutdown
Rahmstorf, Nature 2002
• How about the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current system in these modes?– Brief review of modern, and– Likely glacial configuration
• We’re particularly concerned here with transition between modes– Preconditioning– Feedbacks which stabilize the transition
10ºC isotherm, from Rossby, Reviews of Geophys 1996, taken in turn from Iselin, 1936.
“Major currents of the northern North Atlantic”, from Rossby, Reviews of Geophys 1996, taken in turn from Krauss, 1986.
• Modern circulation with – Gulf Stream – North Atlantic Current – penetration into the “Northwest Corner”
was much different during the last glacial period– Instead, the paleo-Gulf Stream fed a more limited subtropical gyre•Think of the Pacific, no high latitude penetration of the subtropical gyre
Surface currents and
iceberg dispersal at Last Glacial Max, from Robinson, Maslin and McCave,
Paleoceanography, 1995
• Rossby and Nilsson have discussed a mechanism for rapid switching from this paleo-Atlantic circulation to modern circulation– Given preconditioning of Atlantic and then resumption of deep water formation
– topographic and planetary waves communicate this shift to Grand Banks region, and
– North Atlantic Current forms, turning north at Grand Banks and into NW Corner
– stronger (and now interhemispheric) THC makes for stronger Florida Current
Conceptual mechanism for rapid THC response to onset of
northern deep water formation
through
Topographic and Planetary waves, from Rossby and Nilsson, JGR
2005.
Development of NAC:Was transition truly
“rapid”?• Learn more about this in Birmingham?– Answer consequential to paleoclimate research– Answer, though simple, may take time to settle• Question of Atlantic Circulation driving the atmosphere, or atmosphere (winds) driving the ocean (Wunsch 2006)?
• Regardless, – Circulation which feeds North Atlantic deep water formation modeled poorly in climate models
– Stability of modern Atlantic circulation to “anthropogenic forcing” may depend on realism of this circulation• mesoscale variability required for realistic circulation in this region
21rst century climate
• What concern do we have for ocean circulation?
Response of North Atlantic Overturning
Circulation
From the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)Third Assessment Report, 2001
Stouffer et al, J Clim. 2006
CMIP “water hosing” simulations, 100 yrs at 0.1Sv (0.1x106m3
/s), then 100 years of recovery.
Stouffer et al, J Clim. 2006
Extreme water hosing (10x) leads to shutdown in all models:
• Rossby and Nilsson discuss role of NAC in– Transport of saltier waters into deep water formation region
– Maintenance of newly resumed deep convection• (Maintenance of modern deep convection)
• So what happens in an ocean climate model?– Ocean climate models don’t form a Northwest Corner
Back to the real world
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
CCSM.3
control
Sea Surface Height from ocn climate model (CCSM.3 control
simulation)
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Large sea surface temperature errors in the southern Lab Sea are apparent.
Associated biases in salinity may be a larger issue for modeling of THC stability.
Collins et al, J Clim 2006
Eddy-resolving ocean models for climate
science?• Eddies essential to mean circulation of Northwest Atlantic
• THC stability would be climate science application where high res has a role– opportunity to support “IPCC-class” climate simulation
(again, the multi-scale problem)
Possible to get good Gulf Stream/North
Atlantic Current in “eddy-resolving”
model
0.1 model of SMBH
TOPEX/Pos. obs (Le Traon et al 1998
Sea Surface Height Variability
• Resolution was part of the story– We’ve since learned that a good Gulf Stream system is far from assured, even at 0.1º
SSH Variability from Maltrud and McClean 2004
1/10º POP, dipole grid, full cells:
TOPEX-ERS1
How to improve global GS/NAC?
• Factors particular to global configuration– Lateral boundary conditions (lack thereof)– Horizontal grid discretization
• Factors addressable in context of regional North Atlantic model– Here we discuss
• Horizontal dissipation (parameterization, coefficients)
• Preparation of topography (smoothness)
– Also have considered• Vertical mixing• Forcing• Advection (simple centered vs quasi-monotonic)
• How much sensitivity to horizontal dissipation?– coefficients
Gulf Stream pathsfrom intersection of 12°C isotherm and 400m, 1998-2000
• By this point in time (years 13-15) the more viscous (C=1) case has a more realistic separation (obs in green, model mean, 1 and extreme envelope in blue)
C=1, 0.1º
C=1/2, 0.1º
C=1/4, 0.1º
greater dissipation
less dissipation
Stream-coordinate velocities
at “crossover
” (Hatteras)
C=1
C=1/2
C=1/4
Support for Thompson and Schmitz (JPO 1989): DWBC exerts control over separation of Stream
greater dissipation
less dissipation
Obs(AVISO)
Sea Surface HeightVariability (1998-2000)
C=1
C=1/2
C=1/4
greater dissipation
less dissipation
• Deeper penetration of NA Current in less viscous case
• Ozgokmen (97) found jet needed to be highly inertial with low eddy activity to separate and cross f/H, in process study.– We don’t see relation between
low eddy activity and separation at Hatteras
– but maybe high eddy activity for reattachment at Grand Banks
• and Ozgokmen may be correct, even at Hatteras, in terms of isolation from from topography allowing for separation (but perhaps with wrong mechanism for Hatteras, right mechanism for Grand Banks)
Eddy Kinetic Energies, 55º W
C=1/4
C=1
C=8
• How different the density (thermal) fronts are! Yet:
• Many of the features of the flow are similar here, and deeper -- the E/W portions of the flow as it winds northward.
• More viscous case tends to lose much of the NAC out eastern boundary relatively early.
C=1
C=1/4
greater dissipation
less dissipation
• Peak velocities in NAC match pretty well– but see how 10 cm/s isotach is at 1600 m in model,
3500 m in obs
C=1/4
+32.5-20.0
• How much sensitivity to horizontal dissipation?– Parameterization
• Anisotropic Gent-McWilliams Parameterization for Ocean Models– As suggested by Roberts and Marshall (JPO, 1998), adiabatic closure beneficial, even at 0.1º resolution
– Anisotropic GM shown to allow energy levels to remain high, along with use of anisotropic horizontal viscosity• Smith and Gent, JPO 2004
• Preparation of topography• Use of “partial bottom cells”• Additional smoothing (still only moderate)
SSH Variability
BR_full BR_pbc
AK_pbc AK_S3
AVISO
Add pbc’s
Light smoothing of topography
• Factors particular to global configuration– Lateral boundary conditions (lack thereof)
– Horizontal grid
Sea Surface HeightsGlobal
Sector
North Atlantic SSH from fully global 0.1º dipole grid, 3600x2400 points
From sector version of same grid, 1130x1500 pts (restoring boundaries at
N/S, no throughflow)
SSH Variability
SSH Var from fully global 0.1º dipole grid,
3600x2400 points
From sector version of same grid, 1130x1500 pts (restoring boundaries at
N/S, no throughflow)
Global
Sector
• Factors particular to global configuration– Horizontal grid discretization
Displaced Pole
Grid
A sensitivity we’re exploring in global rather than regional configuration: horizontal grid discretization
Tripole Grid
Lat/lon grid insouthern hemisphere,w/ pole in Antarctica
Displace pole gridW/ poles in North America,Siberia
Transitionat somethinglike 30ºNso thatsingularitiesremain wellwithin land
New global eddy-resolving simulations
• Ocean-only study with “transit time distributions” and Lagrangian tracers– Using tripole grid, partial bottom cells, anisotropic GM and viscosity, nearly monotonic advection scheme
• Fully-coupled climate simulation– Using the Community Climate System Model– (Short) control and CO2 increase runs
• Both efforts involve many people at various institutions
Further off: Questions to address
• Smarter ways to bring in effects of mesoscale eddies?– Variable resolution?
– LANS- model?– Higher-order methods?
• Impact of vertical representation (beyond roughness in z-coord)?– Pressure vs density as vertical coordinate (or hybrid)
– Parameterization of mixing in overflows
…Questions to address
• Combine techniques for– Simulation of long-time evolution
• IPCC-class ocean climate model?• Paleo-climate resolution version of ordinary ocean climate model?
• Implicit model?
• With accurate simulation of– Mean transport and preconditioning,– deep water formation, and– thermohaline circulation transition