The Next Moore’s Law - Netness: Why Everything Wants To Be Connected

NIELS BOHR (quoted by ANTON ZEILINGER)

“There are two types of truths:�simple truths & deep truths. �

Simple truth is truth where the opposite �is not true. Deep truth is truth where �the opposite is also true.” DALAI LAMA “There’s something to that.”

for and with Open Source

BRIDGE Sheldon Renan

vision (+) strategy [email protected]

a talk

MOORE’S LAW the next

Sheldon Renan vision (+) strategy

Twitter @srenan

WHY EVERYTHING

WANTS TO BE CONNECTED

netness

A funny thing happened to me in 1989:

I tried to go out of business

but the next morning

THE PHONE RANG




THE PHONE RANG somebody wanted an interactive version of

Murder She Wrote





Murder She Wrote

and somehow… within a short time

I was learning Moore’s Law

then writing for XEROX PARC





Murder She Wrote

and somehow… within a short time

I was learning Moore’s Law

then writing for XEROX PARC

THEN ONE DAY I WAS DOING A WHITEPAPER FOR SOMEBODY ON

…interoperability

NOTE TO SELF:

Anything that is connected always has more opportunity than anything that isn’t.

Making it easy for things to work together is the fastest way to lower the cost of

NOTE TO SELF:

Anything that is connected always has more opportunity than anything that isn’t.

Making it easy for things to work together is the fastest way to lower the cost of anything?

—1994

JSB TELLS ME:

if two machines do roughly

the same thing (LIKE COPYING)

if one machine (COPY MACHINE)

is in the world of atoms

if one machine (VIRTUAL COPY MACHINE)

is in the world of bits

If both has the same user interface (big green button),

look and feel

if machine in world of atoms

is connected with machine in the world of bits

EACH MACHINE HAS MORE

opportunity than if it is a standalone machine

— jsb’s law, 1997

Something deep was changing

I was aware of a shift the internet? the net? what?

jsb talked about the fabric, an emerging fabric of rich services surrounding and interconnecting communities

I began to recognize

it was not the internet

it was not the network

I began to recognize

it was not the internet

it was not the network

it was netness

that was making the difference between our past and our future

Moore’s Law

the price and performance available from semi-conductor technology

will double

every 24 months

Conversation between Gordon Moore & Carver Mead

Article in electronics magazine 1965

Marketing to promote future use of chips in consumer products

Named “Dr. Moore’s Law” by Carver Mead in 1971

Metronome setting the pace for global tech ecosystems

Most important source of new opportunity

Foundation of digital everything

Enabler of global communications & technology

Influence that extends far beyond technology

I asked Gordon Moore, “What is it people don’t understand?”


He answered,


He answered, “What people don’t understand is that the smaller things get the faster and cheaper and better they always work.”

What is netness?

in which connectivity is increasingly ubiquitous, lives are increasingly entangled.

IS AN EMERGING STATE OF BEING

netness

Connectivity is becoming the most important driver of new opportunity the critical creator of new value

Not networks Not the Internet Connectivity itself

The more things you connect, the better things work

The more things you connect, the better things work the smarter they are

The more things you connect, the better things work the smarter they are the safer they are

The more things you connect, the better things work the smarter they are the safer they are the more opportunity is created for sharing resources and collaborating

More things, people and places are becoming connected every day

5 vectors of growth for connectivity

1. The number of networks

2. The number of connectable points

3. The number of connected devices

4. The number of connected locations

5. The ubiquity

5. The ubiquity, frequency

5. The ubiquity, frequency & intimacy of connections

How is connectivity changing?

As connectivity becomes ubiquitous systems (networks) become

As connectivity becomes ubiquitous systems (networks) become fields

As connectivity becomes ubiquitous networks and lives become

As connectivity becomes ubiquitous networks and lives become entangled

A new kind of connectivity is emerging

We used to talk about 3 states of connectivity:


We used to talk about 3 states of connectivity: Loosely connected Closely connected Embedded


4th state of connectivity is emerging: Loosely connected Closely connected Embedded Entangled

When connectivity becomes ubiquitous The more things, people, places become entangled…

When connectivity becomes ubiquitous The more systems (networks) become like fields…

When connectivity becomes ubiquitous The more things, people, places become the better things work entangled the safer they are

Two worlds

The world of atoms The more things, and the world of bits

the better things becomes one

What creates the value

Metcalfe’s Law

Metcalfe’s Law Reed’s Law

Metcalfe’s Law Reed’s Law The externalities effect

Metcalfe’s Law Reed’s Law The externalities effect The power of collaboration

Metcalfe’s Law Reed’s Law The externalities effect The power of collaboration Summation

Metcalfe’s Law Reed’s Law The externalities effect The power of collaboration Summation (more data from more points of view)

We are not just talking about connecting more things over the networks,

We are not just talking about connecting more things over the networks,

We are not just talking about connecting more networks

We are talking about connecting everything

individual world

individual world

many devices makes

individual world

many devices make

individual world

many devices make

many room networks

make

individual world

many wearable devices

make

many room networks

make

individual world


make

many room networks

make

Many house networks

make

individual world


make

many room networks

make

many house networks

make

individual world


make

many room networks

make

many house networks

make

many neighborhood networks

make

individual world


make

many room networks

make

many house networks

make


make

associations of peer to peer networks

individual world


make

many room networks

make

many house networks

make


make

associations of peer to peer networks

global networks

individual world

individual world

What we consider today to be interconnected networks

individual world

is really, really tiny

individual world planet atom

…is just the beginning

atom is comprised of networks

planet is comprised of networks

connect everything, at every level

atom planet

Limit connectivity, and you limit opportunity

Limit connectivity, and you limit opportunity you decrease safety

Connect the unconnected, and you hugely increase opportunity

Connect the unconnected, and you hugely increase opportunity, safety

Connect the unconnected, and you hugely increase opportunity, safety & success

This is why we can say that

WHY EVERYTHING


Example

AN EIGHTY YEAR OLD MAN

WHO LIVES

BY HIM

SELF


TAKES A

S H O W E R


TAKES A

S H O W E R

WHEN HE FALLS INTO THE TUB

What if

WHEN HE FELL INTO THE TUB KNOWS


THAT THE

MAN IS

FALL ING


THAT HE

HAS OSTEO PORO SIS

THE TUB KNOWS AND THEN PROCEEDED TO CONTACT

THAT THE

MAN IS

FALL ING

THE TUB KNOWS AND THEN PROCEEDED TO CONTACT

– 911 – Daughter – Landlord – Geriatric service – Hospital

THE BATHTUB KNOWS AND THEN PROCEEDED TO

THE BATHTUB KNOWS REARRANGE ITS MOLECULES

THE BATHTUB KNOWS REARRANGE ITS MOLECULES

HITS THE SO TUB WHEN HE

HITS THE SO TUB WHEN HE

THE TUB

CATCHES HIM

connectivity fields will enable emergence

of “virtuous service fabrics” individual world

connectivity fields will enable emergence

of “virtuous service fabrics”

programmed to mitigate threats

and optimize outcomes

for individuals

individual world

“virtuous service fabrics”

will evolve from current experiments with

individual world



individual world

sensor nets



sensor nets &

individual world

pervasive computing



sensor nets &�

pervasive computing for healthcare

individual world

early stage virtuous service fabrics are already operating invisibly in a surprising number of automobiles today.

Netness vs. Moore’s Law

EVERY DAY it becomes more important and more productive


to be able to connect, communicate,

and collaborate



and collaborate anywhere




with anything




with anything

on an ad hoc basis

EVERY DAY

it becomes less important to have

EVERY DAY


the fastest computer chips,

EVERY DAY



fattest connections,

EVERY DAY



fattest connections, or vertically optimized

silicon solutions

Where does this apply?

This is a tool you can use in planning products, business models & governance

What would be the most important use?

Confluencing crises

Confluencing crises

of population growth,

climate change

& insufficient

resources & reserves

Confluencing crises of population growth, climate change & insufficient resources are the most urgent reason to recognize, optimize and utilize netness

Radically increasing the ability for everything to cooperate and collaborate


Radically increasing the ability for everything to cooperate and collaborate for maximum efficiency (and minimum waste)


Radically increasing the ability for everything to cooperate and collaborate for maximum efficiency (and minimum waste) will be a requirement to assure survival of many communities.

What Can We Do To Accelerate The Recognition And Optimization of Netness?

We need to create a taxonomy of connectivity

We need to conduct a taxonomy of connectivity experiments to validate the value of connectivity

We need to focus a taxonomy of connectivity experiments to validate the value of connectivity on more “drip networks” as much as broadband

Pierre Teilhard de Chardin in The Phenomenon of Man

Connectivity = Life

Pierre Teilhard de Chardin in The Phenomenon of Man

Connectivity = Life Isolation = Death

That is why

WHY EVERYTHING


That is why

ALL THINGS ABSOLUTELY WANTS TO BE

CONNECTED

Thank you,

and see you on www.netness.net in 60 days.

Sheldon Renan [email protected]

Designed by Bram Pitoyo

[email protected]

Any questions, comments or rants?

The Next Moore’s Law - Netness: Why Everything Wants To Be Connected

Technology

Transcript of The Next Moore’s Law - Netness: Why Everything Wants To Be Connected