Thornton May

tamay@fscj.edu Twitter: @deanitla

19 April 2012

A Discussion of Key Concepts in:

The New Know:

Innovation Powered by Analytics

Part  A  

I am a

Futurist!

2012+

Futurists Are

Misunderstood

Was it Descartes…. Or was it Gartner who said…

A four-box matrix makes everything more understandable?

5

Today, Most Futurists Can Be Arrayed on a Spectrum

Dystopians   Utopians  

Unavoidable collapse & doom

OR

Inexorable progress

6

Today, Most Futurists Can Be Arrayed on a Spectrum

Theore2cal   Prac2cal  

I am an Empirical futurist Ridiculously well traveled;

Amazingly well-connected;

Pathologically observant;

Brutally honest.

Empirical  futurists…  

…talk  to  people  

For the past three years…

I have been on a journey…

In every major geographical market…

I have been asking everyone…

In every vertical market…

At every level in the enterprise…

What do you know…

What do you need to know…

How do you come to know…

All this research condensed into a book…

www.wordle.net  

Aural  Rorschach  

 Test  

Quick Level Set 90 second exercise

When the people on this phone call: hear the phrase

“Analytics” what is the First Thing That Leaps To Mind

Report Backs

10  to  15  Responses  

www.wordle.net  

Let’s  Contextual  

Your  Responses  

90 second exercise

When the people on this phone call: hear the phrase

“Analytics” what is the First Thing That Leaps To Mind

What Do You Think is the #1

Hidden Fear of Execs at the Top-Of-The House?

Report Backs

Being Left Behind Not Keeping Up

Loss of Relevance

Denney Hall Home of the English Department at the Ohio State University

This  Finding  was  Validated  by  a    Global  Group  

Exercise  

Please come up with a metaphor or simile for the environment facing organizations today

2 minute exercise

Metaphor noun A figure of speech in which a word or phrase that ordinarily designates one thing is used to designate another, thus making an implicit comparison, as in "a sea of troubles” or "All the world's a stage” ( Shakespeare). One thing conceived as representing another; a symbol: "Hollywood has always been an irresistible, prefabricated metaphor for the crass, the materialistic, the shallow, and the craven” ( Neal Gabler). Simile a figure of speech comparing two unlike things that is often introduced by like or as (as in cheeks like roses; he eats like a pig) “She's as fierce as a tiger” is a simile, but “She's a tiger when she's angry” is a metaphor.

Definitions

The World is an Accelerator…

And leaders are the

Accelerated Particles…

What has Changed?

What has changed?

Job One For Futurists…

My Former Boss, ūr-Futurist Al Toffler…

Was One of the First to Forecast Acceleration in all things.

Site

Structure Skin Services Space Plan Stuff

How Buildings Learn,1994

20 years or so

30 to 300 years

7- 15 years

3 years or so

daily / monthly

Examine how fast & how radically things are changing

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Job #2 of Futurists…

Change has changed

Al Toffler Told Us:

25

26

An analysis of the past quarter millennium reveals that historical hinges

have tended to occur once every fifty years or so in the early industrial age;

once every twenty years in the later industrial age;

and once every five years

in the meso-information age – the New Know.

Acceleration Defines Modern Existence

“…every five years in the technology

sector…

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things change enough to force me

to write another book.”

Geoffrey Moore, author of Dealing With Darwin

and Escape Velocity

“…some to claim that science – and its handmaiden,

technology –

are changing so fast

that it is impossible for science fiction to keep up.”

Pace  of  Change   Technology is changing so fast, science fiction writers can’t keep up!

Marcus Chown, “Is Science Fiction Dying?” New Scientist [12 November 2008].

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Futurists Predicted that Catching Up/Keeping Up would become a major source of angst…

Catching Up/Keeping Up is not THE Story…

Rapid Technology Change is not THE Story…

Rapid change by itself is not “revolutionary… Rapid economic and technological change is normal: it has been a standard part of the economic history of every era since the beginning of the industrial revolution.

Productivity explosions happen regularly remaking “leading sectors” – like air transport in the 1960s, television in the 1950s, automobiles in the 1920s,

organic chemicals in the 1890s,

and so on back to the original invention of the steam engine to automate the pumping of water out of coal mines.

The pace of change for various piece-parts of the world we live in is not uniform.

Nuanced  Insight   De-Synchronization is THE Story

Because the universe is accelerating un-evenly,

certain piece-parts [i.e., institutions, skill sets,

Practices & mind sets] run the risk of becoming

de-synchronized.

De-­‐Synchroniza2on  A Macro-Trend EVERY

Executive Must Understand

the disconnect between our ability to create, collect

and store data &

our capability to thoroughly process

and exploit it.

Macro  De-­‐Synchroniza2on  #1  

One of the Most Significant Areas of

De-Synchronization…

Dr. Kendra Moore, Program Manager Information Exploitation Office “Patterns, Patterns, Everywhere…” DARPATech 2007 [August 9, 2007]

The ‘pixel to pupil ratio’

is so far skewed in favor of the pixels that only a small fraction of

imagery can actually be

processed.

DARPATech DARPA’s 25th

Systems and Technology Symposium

August 7, 2007

So Many Images, So Little Time

Todd Hughes, Information Exploitation Office “The Mapping Revolution”

DARPATech 2007 [August 9, 2007]

Search Results on Google for “too much information” [18 June 2010].

About 202,000,000 results (0.27 seconds) Search Results Too Much Information - An old house, a geek, a cute transvestite ... Jun 16, 2010 ... The good news is, I start a new job Monday, it's lots closer to home, and with this little obsession out of the way, I can get back to TMI. ... tmi-comic.com/ - Cached – Similar Playlists and Archives for Too Much Information with Benjamen Walker Too Much Information is the sober hangover after the digital party has run out of memes, apps and schemes. Host Benjamen Walker finds out that, ... www.wfmu.org/playlists/TI - Cached The 451 Take on information management — Too much information Jun 11, 2010 ... The 451 Group was there in force, with Kathleen Reidy and Katey Wood representing our Information Management agenda, as well as Henry ... blogs.the451group.com/information_management/ - Cached - Similar

Search Results on Bing for “too much information” [18 June 2010].

All Results

1-10 of 388,000,000 results· Advanced Too Much Information - An old house, a geek, a cute transvestite, a ... An old house, a geek, a cute transvestite, a very tall lesbian, and at least one ghost – what could happen? tmi-comic.com · Cached page Too Much Information - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia "Too Much Information" is the third single released from Duran Duran 's 1993 album, Duran Duran, popularly known as The Wedding Album. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Too_Much_Information · Wikipedia on Bing Too Much Information : The New Yorker Signed comment about the Pentagon’s Orwellian-sounding Information Awareness Office, run by disgraced Iran-Contra figure John M. Poindexter... In our time-in this terror-haunted ... www.newyorker.com/talk/content/?021209ta_talk_hertzberg

The  “For  Dummies”  series  began  in  1991  with  “DOS  for  Dummies,”  which  helped  computer  neophytes  navigate  the  user-­‐unfriendly  program  that  predated  Windows.    The  series  has  swelled  to  more  than  1,000  Ctles  and  sold  more  than  150  million  copies.    John  Wiley  &  Sons,  which  bought  the  Dummies  brand  in  2001,  cranks  out  200  new  Dummies  Ctles  a  year.      At  that  rate,  there  may  soon  be  more  Dummies  books  out  there  than  dummies  to  read  them.    

The Explosion of Information

Mark Hurd Gartner Symposium ITEXPO 2009

New  Know  

In the next four years, there will be twice

as much data as we have

on the planet today.

McKinsey Global Institute “estimates that enterprises globally stored more than 7 exabytes of new data on disk drives in 2010, while consumers stored more than 6 exabytes of new data on devices such as PCs and notebooks. One exabyte of data is the equivalent of more than 4,000 times the information stored in the US Library of Congress.”

Big  Data  

http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/big_data/pdfs/MGI_big_data_full_report.pdf

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey began amassing data in 2000 and collected more in its first few weeks than all the data collected before that in the history of astronomy.

It's now up to 140 terabytes and counting, and

when its successor comes online in 2016 it will collect that amount of data every five days.

Then there's the Large Hadron Collider, (LHC) which in

2010 alone spewed out 13 petabytes – that's 13m gigabytes – of data .

Big  Data  

John Naughton, “Why Big Data is now such a big deal,” The Observer [17 March 2012] http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2012/mar/18/big-data-storage-analysis-internet

Reuters, The Week [18 November 2011], 16

New  Know  

In any two days, human beings create as much information online as it took our species to create in the 30,000 years between the dawn of cave

painting and the year 2003.

In another 10 years, that same amount of information will be

generated in less than one hour.

Every molecule on this planet Will be IP addressable….

The Cumulative Impact of This…. In 15 years…

“There will be an incomprehensible,

mind-explodingly massive expansion in the amount of information

floating around.”

What will this mean to YOU and Your business?

New Know Reality

Informationally, we appear to be approaching a Neo-Malthusian Moment

Ini2al  Indica2ons  

The Cognitive Squeeze Play

x…

The  World    is  Divided  

A Tech Treaty of Tordesillas

The Treaty of Tordesillas 7 June 1494, divided the newly discovered lands outside Europe between Spain and Portugal. The lands to the east the Cape Verde Islands would belong to Portugal and the lands to the west to Spain.

The other side of the world would be divided a few decades later by the Treaty of Zaragoza or Saragossa, signed on 22 April 1529

Katie Olivas, HesitatenPart of her Misery Children series

Data  as  Villain?  

DATA – too much data is fast becoming

the villain of our age.

The idea that there is too much data

has become the new orthodoxy, a staple of

classroom, cocktail circuit, and media commentary.

For many, data deluge

has become an all-purpose explanation for

the ills of contemporary life.

We Need to Re-Think

How We Think

About

Data, Information, Content & Knowledge

This is

not a ‘Bug’

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This  is  a  feature!  

There is nothing we cannot know…

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Paul Otellini, CEO at Intel was recently asked by Charlie Rose:

“What is going to be obsolete next?

The New Know

Otellini responded:

“Ignorance.”

The World has Changed Its Mind What I Discovered…

54

…about Knowing.

Heading Toward “Instant Replay”

The Week [18 June 2010], 19.

The imperfect game: Baseball’s life lessons A bad call by James Joyce, a veteran major league baseball umpire, cost Detroit Tigers pitcher Armando Galarraga a perfect game. “Unless he figures out how to plug the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico, Jim Joyce has likely written the first paragraph of his obituary,” said Brian Dickerson in the Detroit Free Press. Joyce, a veteran major league baseball umpire, last week mistakenly called a runner safe on a close play at first base on what should have been the final out, thereby costing Detroit Tigers hurler Armando Galarraga a perfect game.

A  New  AWtude  Toward  Knowing  

The Perfect Game that Wasn’t

The Week [18 June 2010], 19.

Over 135 seasons and tens of thousands of major league games, only 20 times has a pitcher retired 27 straight batters without a walk, a hit, or an error. Joyce’s blown call denying Galarraga that 27th out, therefore, caused a national uproar.

A  New  AWtude  

All Decisions Will be Subject to “Instant Reply”

http://sports.yahoo.com/soccer/news?slug=ap-wcup-videotechnology&print=1

Bad calls prompt FIFA to study high-tech ref help By GRAHAM DUNBAR, AP Sports Writer

A  New  AWtude  

Toward  Facts  

A New Competency…

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The desire to know will define the next quarter century. In the not-so-distant future, guessing/making things up, not having the right data, or employing the wrong algorithms to the right data will come to be viewed as termination offenses and egregious social taboos.

Knowing

is to 21st century man

what

Walking erect

or

Fire

was to

our primitive forebears.

A  Discipline  in  Transi2on  

EVERYONE recognizes that there is much more data to be analyzed. Senior management believes that there is critical business/mission insight hidden in this data. Senior management is frustrated/confused why that data is not being converted into value. Some organizations are ‘breaking away’ [i.e., creating competitive advantage via the informed and innovative use of business analytics]. These findings are consistent with those emerging from a multi-city Executive Dinner Series “Competing on Business Analytics” which concluded that:

while business analytics has gone mainstream, many “organizations still have an undisciplined approach to making the key decisions that impact their business.”

Several ‘drive-by’ truths about business analytics

General  Findings  

Society is changing mental models regarding analytics.

Data is being created at an accelerated pace-

faster than many organizations can make sense of it.

Stakeholders expect you to know…

Stakeholders become VERY frustrated when you/they do not know.

Ahead-of-the-curve enterprises are beginning to

differentiate themselves on the basis of “how they decide to decide.”  

Broadly Held Mental Models Regarding Analytics

Mental    Models   The Contemporary Zeitgeist

There is an emerging sense… in the back of many minds… that decision-making in many enterprises… while not quite broken, is nevertheless eminently improvable.

Mental    Models   The Contemporary Zeitgeist

The “is” of decision making today

The “ought” of decision

making tomorrow

Decision  Archaeology  

Most Organizations Were Not Designed for the World They Exist in Today

As such, many decision-making mechanisms are out of sync with the current environment.

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unaugmented human cognition

[the old know] is no longer sufficient.

Hinge of History The World Has Changed

Medical  Analog

Not knowing

Has Consequences

The World Has Changed Environmental Truth

The manslaughter trial of six seismologists and a

government official in the central Italian city

of L’Aquila, stemming from what

the authorities say was a failure to warn the

population before a deadly 2009 earthquake,

has outraged many scientists.

Forecasting – New Expectations Regarding Accuracy

Henry Fountain, “Trial Over Earthquake in Italy Puts Focus on Probability and Panic,” New York Times [3 October 2011].

Thousands have signed petitions protesting the prosecution as anti-science.

Not knowing

Will No Longer Be Tolerated

The World Has Changed Environmental Truth

An FDA for knowledge content?

An EPA for “thought pollution”?

The Possibility of Government Action Possible Futures

“…the medium of knowing has been

Transformed.”

Thanks to Business Analytics

I focused instead on painting a changed landscape

Market research suggests

that some organizations are

Embracing the change

I DID NOT focus on what you

organizations might be doing

wrong…

Nor did I spend much time

talking about what you might

be doing better…

During Today’s Presentation…

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A Wide Range of Knowing Über Observation

Ahead of the Curve

Behind the Curve

Not Even Aware There is a Curve

On the Curve

New  Knows  

Why is this happening?

What if these trends continue?

What will happen next?

What’s the best that can happen?

What happened? How many, how often, where?

Where exactly is the problem?

What actions are needed?

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Framework For

Knowing

x

“INFORMS” [ May 2011].

“flying blind,” plagued by missing or poor-quality data and poorly

integrated systems.

Organization begins to develop an enterprisewide analytics capability

with high-quality data, an enterprisewide analytical plan and

governance principles.

Analytic efforts are isolated, opportunistic and function-specific. organization collects transaction data efficiently but often lacks the right data for better decision making.

Organization has executive support for analytics & a proliferation of business intelligence tools & data marts, but

most data remains unintegrated, nonstandardized & inaccessible.

Routinely reaping big benefits from its full-fledged, enterprisewide analytics architecture, which is fully automated

and integrated into processes.

INFORMS [18 March 2012] Market

Landscape

INFORMS [18 March 2012] Market

Landscape

B2B Telco FS Retail CPG

Analy2cs   No Shortage of Models

INFORMS [18 April 2012]

Analy2cs  

Hal Varian,

Chief Economist Google

C-Suiters tell me three things REALLY matter: Desire to know Capacity to know Capacity to tell

Teri Takai Department of

Defense

Filippo Passerini CIO –

Procter & Gamble

79

Analytic Heroes

Gary Loveman, Chairman – Caesar’s Entertainment

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P&G “Sphere”

Immersive Business Review On One Side – the CEO

On the other side – the COO In the middle – the Über Analyst

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Analytic Heroes

Scott Friesen, Sr. Director of Analytics, Best Buy Consumer Insights Unit

Translation/ Communication

Analytic Talent

Analytic Tools

Data Accessibility

Data Architecture

Hardware

What It Takes to Provide Quality Analysis

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Analytic Heroes

“I want you to figure out

customer loyalty

for Marriott.”

Stephan Chase, VP of Customer Knowledge Marriott International

Analy2c  Leaders  

Define Success Question Assumptions Divide & Conquer Take Advantage of Circumstances Start Today Louis Gutierrez, Mitt Romney’s CIO

Dan Siroker, President Obama’s New Media Czar 2004 Campaign

Where are we?

Where do we want to go? [i.e., what are our options – strategically]

How do we get there?

[i.e., what are out options – tactically?]

How do we convince the enterprise to make the trip?

An Analytical Map Starts a Series of Conversations

Closing Thoughts

Thorntonamay@aol.com Twitter: @deanitla

SKYPE: thornton.may

http://itleadershipacademy.com/Value_Studio.html

http://fisher.osu.edu/executive-

education/open-enrollment-programs/operations-and-

information-technology/cio-solutions-gallery/