The new flood forecasting and warning organization system in F RANCE

CERFACS, 15 December 2003

DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI

Ministère de l’Ecologie et du Développement Durable

The new flood forecasting and warning organization system in FRANCE

Max Reyal, deputy of the regional director of Meteo France for French West Indies and french GuyanaReplacement of Jean-Michel TanguyMinistry of Ecology and Sustainable DevelopmentDirection of WaterNational Hydrometeorogical Flood Forecasting Service Director

Meteo France: always in advance on time and weather

Lucca March 16th-17th

DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


7000 km :8h

2500 km almost

24h ..

French West Indies


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Meteo France: Always in advance on time and weather


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Outline

1. Existing flood alert system2. The new national forecasting

and vigilance system3. Perspectives…..4. Brief in the FWI



DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


French territorial organization France:550 000 km2 French territorial organization : 26 « Régions »,

100 « Départements »(mean surface 5000 km2), about 37000 « Communes »(cities )

City mayors(elected officers) are in charge of public safety on their territories but small communes have few means

The State, as a support for the mayors :Produces flood information Implements a flood alert systemAlert the mayors who inform and provide the

citizens with protection measuresProvides civil defense(emergengy management)

means



DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Flood alert system: former situation

52 Local Flood Alert Services (FAS) creation mid 19 century

The FAS provide State authorities and the prefects (local representative of the Government) with flood advisory messages

The prefects decide to declare alert and inform the mayors which take the civil security measures to inform and protect citizens again the forecasted flood

Each Local produces bulletins with comparison of measured water levels with specific water level thresholds and tendencies of evolution

Some difficulties at present time of the present system Insufficient take into account of the met contribution

no sufficient human and financial resources To much local services No national harmonization (operational and managerial)Insufficient scientific and technical knowledge



DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Various agenciesDDE = Departmental Direction of the ministry of EquipmentSN = Navigation ServiceDDAF = Departmental Direction of Agriculture and ForestsDIREN = Regional Direction of the ministry of Ecology and Sustainable Development

Flood alert system: map of former FAS



DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


2 Flood alert system: new challenges

Challenges Necessity to forecast flood events in

order for better anticipation Better take into account the interactions of

meteo and hydrologic aspects: the fallen rain and the rain which will fall

Necessity to rationalize existing resources and renovation of information process

Necessity to upgrade scientific and technical tools with the support of a national service



DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Meteo alert system: Current situation

The Vigilance procedure

The meteorological vigilance map : qualification of level of different types of danger on the scale of departement for the next 24h. ( different in FWI ..) .

• Defined by Météo-France, published at minima twice a day and may be more in case of severe event

• Available to both authorities ,medias and the public, on the Internet• Goes with follow-up meteorological bulletins as soon as the

« orange » level is reached, including a forecast section broadcasted to emergency managers, media and public Qualification of the event( for example every 10 year .)

• Goes with standard « behavior recommendations »• Accounts for severe precipitations and thunderstorms risks, which is of

special interest for flood risk management

Addition:heat-wave(after 2003) cold wave or spell


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


No danger

Be carefull !

Be prepared !

Be protected !

Stay safely enclosed !

Keep being careful

1- One all year procedure for all the FWI , including 4 types of meteorological hazards and 4 levels of danger ( + 2 for cyclones ) showed with coulours ( NO COLD SPELL OR SNOW/ICE)

2- One clear, digest and easy to memorise information towards everybody ( governement, emergency managers, medias, general public …)

A type of hazard + a level of danger (colour) + a slogan


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


SL11:Main goal : to give a clear message of what should be and should not be done to avoid wrong comportemental attitudes . For each hazard and each colour, appropriate individual and collective measures are given to the public.

These collective measures ( closing of schools,stopping industrial or of airport activities ...) are choosen in real time among a predefined list by emergency managers depending on the expertise of this special threat ....because each case is a different case ...)

- Special « follow-up » bulletins

Give more details about the hasard, the forecast, the danger , the impact, the probability , etc. These bulletins are issued as soon as one of the island is not in “green”

Issued with the same frequency than the chart

Free acess from the « vigilance page » on our website (single click on the island)


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Exemple de bulletin de suivi SERVICE REGIONAL DE MARTINIQUE

VIGILANCE METEOROLOGIQUE en MARTINIQUEBulletin de suivi N° 3-1 du 29 à 06 h locales.

COULEUR : JAUNE DANGER : Houle inhabituelle en Caraïbe. Mer forte en Atlantique SOYEZ ATTENTIFS !

Situation actuelleEn Caraïbe les creux moyens de la houle de Nord Ouest sont voisins de 1 m ce matin, avec des maximums proches de 1.50 m.En Atlantique les creux moyens de la houle de Nord dépassent 2.50 m.

PrévisionsEn Caraïbe les creux devraient un peu augmenter aujourd'hui et la houle s'orienter au secteur Nord.En Atlantique les creux devraient s'amplifier notablement.

Données chiffrées En Caraïbe : la hauteur moyenne devrait rester entre 1 m et 1.50 m.En Caraïbe : les creux pourraient atteindre 3 m à 3.50 m la nuit prochaine

Commentaires / Conséquences

Le ressac inhabituel en Caraïbe peut constituer une gène :- pour les usagers de la mer lors des amarrages ( au sud de la baie de Fort de France).- certaines infrastructures routières peuvent être concernées.En Atlantique : la mer devient dangereuse pour les petites embarcations.RésuméRisque: fort Impact: faible(faible,modéré,fort,certain) (faible,modéré,important,majeur)

Validité :Durée prévue de l'épisode: 48 h Prochain bulletin : à 17 h ce soir.


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


LA VIGILANCE METEOROLOGIQUE AUX ANTILLES , it’s :

1- assesment of the danger

2- take appropriate measures

Individual advises of beahaviour

Collective measures

Vigilance Météo

ANTILLES

Un type de danger Une couleur de vigilance

Pas de vigilance particulière

Soyez attentif. Danger imprécis ou effets limités

Préparez vous. Danger probables ou effets modérés

Protégez vous. Danger très probables et effets

importants

Confinez vous. Danger imminent et effets majeurs

Restez prudent. Danger écarté ou atténué


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Impact

Light or imprecise

Moderate Deep Very deep (major)

Probability

low 1 1 1 2 2

Forte moderate to high

1 1 2 2 3 3

Very high 1 2 3 3

Certain …(imminent)

1 2 3 4

MétéoFrance choose the colour ( level of danger ) taking into account the hazard itself and the possible impact ( combination probability x vulnérability ) .

A sensible decision weight is left to the forecaster in order to

stick the best we can to the reality same values can induce different colors


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


SL15: Lead time of arrival of the danger


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


1600km

50W

Less than 48H hurricane watch


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Grey vigilance color status


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Coming back to Europe

Meteorological observation networksRadome : 554 stations (« turbo » mode: 6mn

step, the station can call according threshold..)

Rain gauge network : all data available for the SPC

+ 700 stations real time data

Planting of 100 new rain gauges by Meteo-France in order to satisfy the needs of SPCs

Hydro-meteorological radars improvement: 26 radars : mosaique


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Meteorological aspects

Modelling toolsRain forecasting : numerical weather forecasting

models ARPEGE and ALADIN outputs and soon in 2008 « Arome » model( non hydrostatic high resolution model 2 km resolution)

Hydrometeorological tools: coupled models (observed weather conditions and forecasted flow with hydrological model) Safran-Isba-Modcou


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


2. Towards a national forecasting and warning system: key points

Creation of the National Hydrometeorological Flood Forecasting Service - Staff 30 FTEs (June 2nd 2003)(SCHAPI in french)

Creation of 22 Local Flood Forecasting Services in lieu of the 52 Flood Alert Services - Staff about 8 to 15 FTEs each

Creation of a national flood vigilance system

Goes with a national prevention plan (plan Bachelot)


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


3. Towards a national forecasting and warning system

Map of the 22 FFSs and the SCHAPI

SCHAPIToulouseClose to Météo

France


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Flood forecasting organisation SL22

New act « loi Risques n°2003-699 » related to prevention of natural and technological risks and reparation of damage

a legal framework for the flood forecasting

A framework convention( MOU) between Meteo-France and the Water Directorate

co-operation principles for flood forecasting improvement


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Hydrological aspects

The flood vigilance procedure To give early forecasting allowing local

authorities, civil authorities to react on time

To largely inform the public, the media and give personal behaviour advices

To focus on really severe phenomena likely to entail a major crisis


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


The flood vigilance procedureOnly for main rivers…


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


The flood vigilance procedure

In case of orange or red vigilance : national and local information bulletins

Close contacts between SCHAPI and SPCs


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI



Hydrological observation network Limnimeters network being updated

A new data concentration process ( data transmission: telephone, GSM,

satellite)

Centralization by the SCHAPI and Meteo France and exchange of data



DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI



Modelling tools High disparity between the SPCs due to variety of

river basins

Flow rate propagation models ; Rainfall-flow rate models

Conceptual models : in the process of operational use

Coupling between hydraulic and hydrological models

Deterministic models : off-line

Forecasting platform : SOPHIE


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Operational links between Meteo-France and SPCs and SCHAPI SL28

Framework MOU or convention (Meteo-France / Water Directorate Data exchanges

Weather forecasts provision from Meteo-France to SCHAPI

Expertised hydrological information from SCHAPI to Meteo-France

Close contacts between weather forecasters and hydrological forecasters


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Operational contacts during crisis

COGIC

Defensezones

Prefects

SCHAPI

SPC

National Forecasting

CentreMeteo FranceMeteo France

CDM or CMIR

Météo-FranceMEDDMinistry of Interior

NationalNational

LocalLocal


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


The SCHAPI(central hydrometeorological support service for flood forecast) National and technical support to

the 22 FFS ( Meteo France host one the 22 SPC in the south east ..)

24 h / 24 mission on rapid catchments during severe events

Edition of a national vigilance flood map


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Public and Security Services Information


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Information during pre event andevent

Communication is crucial: the most accurate forecast is not usefull if it arrive too late to the people who need it .....ex in the FWI ..


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Implementation of the reorganization

• Transfer from Local Flood Alert Service to “pre” Local Flood Forecasting Services: dec.2004 to dec. 2005 (Flood alert on the territory of the future FFS)

• Transformation of the “pre” FFS to FFS: mi-2006

• Publication of the flood warning map on Internet : july 2006


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI



DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Lessons learned and prospects

A fruitfull co-operation: data acquisition rationalization, technical means harmonization( not so easy …)

A difficulty: different time working organisations

A new culture for the hydrologists: take account of outside-elaborated information


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Lessons learned and prospects

Study for enforced co-operation on urban runoff and fast-reacting river basins( improvement have to be made )

One unified hydro-meteorological vigilance procedure?(not for tomorow ..call of JM ....)

Meteo France has the certification iso9001 and must take into account needs of users..

Last heavy rain episode of the end of 2005 in south of France.


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Challenges and perspectives

• Network’s Internal Objectives• To build a real network SCHAPI – Local FFS• To give it the means of it’s ambitions• To improve its technical and scientific

effectiveness

• Public Service Objectives• To give public security services and the

general public the most relevant information with the most possible anticipation

• To disseminate risk culture


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI




DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Carte des bassins versants

Main basin: only 100 Km2

Size

oncentration time

2h to 4h .

Some basins 1h ..



DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Courbe de niveau de la Rivière Lézarde

3h



DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


MOYENS DE SURVEILLANCELes stations météorologiques

Constitution du réseau de stations automatiques :

Département : 28 équipements Météo France : 8 équipements

Paramètres météorologiques mesurés :

Pluviométrie, Température, Rayonnement solaire et Vent.

Fréquence des données :

récupération possible de nouvelles données toutes les 30 mn,

connaissance des pluies par pas de 6 mn.


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


MOYENS DE SURVEILLANCELes stations limnimétriques

Constitution du réseau de stations limnimétriques automatiques :

Département : 29 équipements

Paramètre mesuré :

Niveau des cours d’eau


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Ecran type de suivi de l’information RADAR :

50, 100, 200 km :

Fréquence 5 mn, Elévation 0,5°

400km :

Fréquence 15 mn, Elévation 0°


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI



DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI

Ministère de l’Ecologie et du Développement DurableConference CaribHycos, Fort de France, Décembre 2004

Les plans d ‘urgence: emergency plans


DIRECTIONDE L’EAU

SCHAPI


Flood forecasting in France

Meteo France:Meteo France:

Always in advance on time and Always in advance on time and weatherweather

Thank you for attentionThank you for attention

The new flood forecasting and warning organization system in F RANCE

Documents

Transcript of The new flood forecasting and warning organization system in F RANCE