The New Airport for Berlin Has Willy-Brandt (BBI) Airport ... · 2016-2024 (at 3-6% annual growth)....
Transcript of The New Airport for Berlin Has Willy-Brandt (BBI) Airport ... · 2016-2024 (at 3-6% annual growth)....
Internet: www.gap-projekt.de
Contact: [email protected]
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
partner/sponsor:
The New Airport for Berlin –
Has Willy-Brandt (BBI) Airport enough Capacity for the
Future?A Simulation Approch
Dipl. Wirt.-Ing. Branko Bubalo
GAP Research Project
German Aviation Research Society Workshop (G.A.R.S.) at ILA 2010
Berlin, June 10th 2010
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 1
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
Personal Background
• Graduate in Business Administration and Engineering from Berlin
School of Economics and Law (BSEL) and University of Applied
Sciences Berlin
• Diploma Thesis (2009): “Benchmarking Airport Productivity and the Role
of Capacity Utilization”
• 4th year in German Airport Performance Research Project at Berlin
School of Economics and Law
• Conducted Benchmarking studies of European Airports and Airlines (75
Airports, 50 Airlines)
• Consultation in MIME Project, funded by EU Commission, studying
Noise mitigation around airports, by market-based instruments
• Looking for new opportunities in Air Transportation Research &
Development and PhD position
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 2
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
Contents
1. Berlin Airports Today and Tomorrow
2. European Comparisons to BBI
3. SIMMOD Study on Airside Capacity of BBI
4. Extension Plans for similar Airports
5. Vision
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 3
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
Plan of Berlin-Brandenburg International Airport
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 4
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
Why is Airport Runway Capacity so important
Economical Perspective:
• Global Competition of Regions which makes air interface vital
• Attracting Airlines and Business, Tourists and Transit Passengers
• Reducing Costs for Flying, by providing enough slots for demand and
increasing future demand
Technical Perspective:
• Operating at Practical/Sustainable Capacity is important for Airport
System Stability, Reliability (Scheduling!) and Service Quality (level-of-
service (LOS) of e.g. 4 minutes of mean delay/flight)
• Operating at Maximum capacity leaves no margin-of-safety for
unscheduled random events, e.g. weather (snow!), unscheduled flights
(Business jets, Charter, General Aviation (GA)), emergency landing etc.)
• Delays increase exponentially at high utilization rates
• Knock-on delay effects make operating at airport costly for airlines
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 5
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
Relationship between Demand, Capacity and Delay
• As airport demand
increases towards its
(ultimate) capacity,
the airport system
becomes congested
and average delays
per flight increase
exponentially.
Modified from Horonjeff 2010, p.488
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 6
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
Berlin Airports today and tomorrow
• From 3 (Tegel (TXL), Schoenefeld (SXF), Tempelhof (THF) airports)
make 1 (Willy-Brandt Airport (BBI))
• Existing airports (SXF and TXL) will be replaced fully by BBI on
October 2011
• Political Dimension and Relevance for a study of BBI capacity and
future development:
“When the Number of Runways at the existing Airports will
be reduced from 4 to 2, Bottlenecks are bound to occur.”
(German Federal Transport Minister Peter Ramsauer,
Tagesspiegel, June 7th, 2010)
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 7
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
European Comparisons
• Peer group of independent, far parallel-runway airports
(Separation of at least 1500 meters and alternate-mode operations)
• Best Practices with similar runway layout and highest productivity (2008)
in comparison to BBI (SXF + TXL): London-Heathrow and Munich
• BBI has the potential to rank third-biggest European airport (before
Palma-de-Mallorca (PMI) and Oslo (OSL)) in peer group by 2012
Airport Annual PAX (million)
Annual Flights (thousand)
PAX per Flight
Peak Hour Throughput
London-Heathrow 67.2 473 142 103
Munich 34.5 409 84 93
BBI (TXL+SXF 2008) 21.2 212 100 48
BBI Planned Final 2023 (Planning Permission 2004)
30 301-329 100-91 90
BBI Sustainable Final at 2024 (60% growth from 2008 at 3%; SIMMOD study 2010)
28.1 303 93 76
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 8
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
BBI Study Background
• Study prepared for International Conference on Operations Research
"Mastering Complexity“ Munich 2010 with Prof. Joachim Daduna (BSEL)
• Full study available in September 2010
• Software: GUI: Visual SIMMOD
Engine: FAA SIMMOD Engine
• Flight schedule data: Flightstats.com
• Basic Information: Official Planning Permission Documents for BBI
• Sensitivity Analysis towards 6 Scenarios with different traffic mixes
(shares of aircraft wake turbulence classes: Small (<7 tons MTOW),
Large (7-136 tons MTOW) and Heavy (>136 tons MTOW))
• 11 growth scenarios (-20%,0%,20%,40%,…,200%) at 10 iterations each
• Based on predefined Design Peak Day 2008 (June 26th 2008)
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 9
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
Simulated Scenarios and Traffic Mixes
Scenario 0 Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III
Airport SXF TXL BBI BBI BBI BBITurbulence Class Share Flights Share Flights Share Flights Share Flights Share Flights Share FlightsHEAVY 0% 3% 12 2% 12 5% 32 15% 95 5% 32LARGE 100% 155 95% 454 96% 609 95% 603 80% 508 84% 533SMALL 0% 3% 14 2% 14 0% 0 5% 32 11% 70Sum 100% 155 100% 480 100% 635 100% 635 100% 635 100% 635
Mix Index (MI) 100% 102% 102% 110% 125% 99%MI = 3 x (% HEAVY) + (% LARGE)
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 10
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
BBI SIMMOD Study Assumptions
• Realistic assumptions resulting from combined actual traffic data of
Berlin Tegel (TXL) and Schoenefeld (SXF) airports and Planning
Permission documents:
• Delay per Flight will be
Key Performance Indicator
• Schedule
• Traffic Mix
• Runway Layout
• Parking Stands
• Punctuality & other
Random Distributions
• 20 Additional Business Jet
or GA Flights in morning & evening Peaks (7-12 & 15-20; Scenario 0a)
17.79%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
10%11%12%13%14%15%16%17%18%19%
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Cu
mu
lati
ve O
ccu
rre
nce
in P
erc
en
t
Occ
ure
nce
in P
erc
en
t o
f To
tal
dai
ly F
ligh
ts
Punctuality (Actual minus Scheduled Time in Minutes
Distribution and cumulative Distribution of Punctuality
for Berlin Tegel and Schoenefeld Airports on Peak Day 2008
Punctuality Punctuality Distribution
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 11
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
Presenting Interim Results
• Scenario 0 (baseline, 2 independent parallel runways, current
SXF+TXL=BBI traffic mix):
• Simulated throughput Capacity of 82-84 Flights per hour at 120-
140%! Further increase of traffic resulted in grid locking queues and
therefore flight cancellations.
• Sustainable long-term throughput/capacity of 76 Flights per hour!
(1 operation every 47 seconds) The animation proves this.
• Demand higher than Capacity at 60% Growth, based on 2008 busy
day schedule and Level-of-Service of 5-6 minutes of Avg. Delay per
flight.
• Delays will increase exponentially beyond 60% growth.
• Upper and lower boundaries of historic growth rates at TXL and SXF
underline the assumption that demand=capacity reached between
2016-2024 (at 3-6% annual growth).
• Each 20% growth increment results in doubling of daily delays
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 12
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
Results Scenario 0: Simulated Peak Throughput at BBI
48
54
71
7680 82 82 84 83
48
55
69
78
9490
96 98
110
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Scenario 0 0% Scenario 0
20%
Scenario 0
40%
Scenario 0
60%
Scenario 0
80%
Scenario 0
100%
Scenario 0
120%
Scenario 0
140%
Scenario 0
160%
De
man
d a
nd
Cap
acit
y in
Flig
hts
pe
r h
ou
r
Projected Growth of Traffic at Berlin -Brandenburg Airport in Comparison to Runway Capacity (Scenario 0:"Nullszenario")
Hourly Capacity
Hourly Demand
Maximum Capacity SIMMOD
Maximum Capacity Planning Permission 2023
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 13
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
Results: Simulated Delays at BBI:
• Scenario 0 (*Note: 42€ cost per minute of delay (Eurocontrol 2009: “Standard Inputs for CBA Analyses”)
Growth from Baseline
Daily Flights
Peak Hour Demand
Hourly Capacity
Mean Delay per Flight
Daily Delay Minutes
Daily Delay Costs at 42€ * (without cancellation costs) Cancellations
-20% 511 40 40 1.1 543 EUR 22,806 0
0% 635 48 48 1.4 887 EUR 37,254 020% 758 55 54 2.3 1760 EUR 73,920 040% 886 69 71 3.7 3287 EUR 138,054 060% 1012 78 76 5.9 5955 EUR 250,110 080% 1145 94 80 11.5 13223 EUR 555,366 0
100% 1270 90 82 21.2 26968 EUR 1,132,656 1120% 1400 96 82 26.8 37501 EUR 1,575,042 134140% 1517 98 84 27.4 41538 EUR 1,744,596 440160% 1639 110 83 58.2 95364 EUR 4,005,288 807
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 14
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
Results: Simulated Delays at BBI
1.1 1.42.3
3.7
5.9
11.5
21.2
26.8 27.4
Avg Delay = 0.1624e0.0036x
R² = 0.9883
Avg. Delay = 0.0906e0.0572x
R² = 0.96340 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Peak Hourly Flights
Ave
rage
De
lay
pe
r Fl
igh
t
Daily Flights
Average Delay per Flight from Simulation of BBI Baseline Scenario 0
Average Delay per Daily Flights
Average Delay per Peak Hour Flights
Expon. (Average Delay per Daily Flights)
Expon. (Average Delay per Peak Hour Flights)
sustainable
Not sustainable
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 15
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
Capacity limits reached at BBI
• The Sustainable Capacity of 76 Flights per Hour and 60% growth can
be reached after:
• 16 years at 3% average growth of traffic (2008-2024)
• 12 years at 4% average growth of traffic (2008-2020)
• 10 years at 5% average growth of traffic (2008-2018)
• 8 years at 6% average growth of traffic (2008-2016)
• The planning timeline for a third runway at BBI depends on the
economic developments in the region in the next months and years.
• We must start discussing a 3rd runway at BBI in 2014 the latest, as a
result from Scenario 0 (3% growth), if 10 years until realisation are
considered.
• Legal, political and environmental approval time will increase further in
the future, so do the opportunity costs from building a runway too late.
%591)06.01(1)1( 8nr
%631)05.01(1)1( 10nr
%601)04.01(1)1( 12nr
%601)03.01(1)1( 16nr
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 16
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
Growth of Berlin Airports
Source: Eurostat
100%107%
120% 125% 128%136%
121%
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
240,000
280,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Ind
ex
(In
de
x 1
= 2
00
3)
An
nu
al fl
igh
ts
Year
Growth of Traffic at Berlin Airports and Develoment of Index between 2003 and 2009
BERLIN-TEGEL BERLIN-SCHONEFELD BERLIN-TEMPELHOF
BERLIN-TEGEL INDEX BERLIN-SCHONEFELD INDEX BERLIN-TEMPELHOF INDEX
BERLIN AIRPORTS INDEX
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 17
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
Trends of Annual and Peak Hour Flights in Europe
y = 32.99x0.976
R² = 0.918
y = 0.376x0.917
R² = 0.914
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600
Des
ign
Pea
k H
ou
r Fl
igh
ts
Des
ign
Pe
ak H
ou
r P
ass
en
ge
rs
Annual Flights in thousands
Trends of Annual flights to Design Peak Hour Flights and Passengers
(Data from 60 European Airports in 2007
Peak Hour Passengers Peak Hour Flights Power (Peak Hour Passengers) Power (Peak Hour Flights)
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 18
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
Trends of Peak Hour and Annual Flights in Europe
y = 0.303x1.046
R² = 0.780y = 4.059x0.996
R² = 0.914
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
An
nu
al F
ligh
ts in
th
ou
san
ds
An
nu
al P
ass
en
ge
r in
mil
lio
ns
Design Peak Hour Flights
Trends of Peak Hour Flights to Annual Passengers and Flights
Annual Passengers Annual Flights Power (Annual Passengers) Power (Annual Flights)
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 19
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
Approximation Functions established from 60 EU airports
If Annual Flights are known from forecasts:
1. Peak Hour Flights = 0.376*Annual Flights (in thousand)^0.917
2. Peak Hour Passengers = 32.99*Annual Flights (in thousand)^0.976
If Peak Hour Flights are known from forecasts or simulations:
3. Annual Flights in thousand = 4.059*Peak Hour Flights^0.996
4. Annual Passengers in million = 0.303*Peak Hour Flights^1.046
Source: Bubalo 2010
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 20
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
Testing Assumptions Using Approximation Equations
• BBI Planning Permission Forecast 2023 (2004):
– 355.000 Flights per year and 90 Movements per hour.
With 1. & 2.: 355.000 annual flights -> 82 Peak Hour Flights and
10173 Peak Hour Passengers
With 3. & 4.: 90 Peak Hour Flights -> 359.000 Annual Flights and
33.5 million Passengers
• BBI SIMMOD Study (2010):
– Sustainable Capacity at 76 Flights per hour after 60%
growth
With 3. & 4.:76 Peak hour flights->303.000 flights and 28.1 million
PAX
– Capped Capacity at 82-84 Flights per hour after 100%
With 3. & 4.:82 Peak Hour flights -> 327.000 Annual Flights and
30.4 million annual Passengers
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 21
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
Resulting BBI Forecasts based on 2008 traffic schedule
Airport Annual PAX (million)
Annual Flights (thousand)
PAX per Flight
Peak Hour Flights
Capacity
BBI 2008 (TXL+SXF 2008) 21.2 212 100 48 48
BBI Planned Capacity 2023 (Planning Permission 2004, at 3%)
30 301-355 100-85 90 90
BBI Sustainable Capacity 2024 (60% growth from 2008 at 3%; this study)
28.1 303 93 76 82
BBI Sustainable Capacity2018 (60% growth from 2008 at 5%, this study)
28.1 303 93 76 82
BBI Maximum Capacity (100%)
33.5 359 93 90 82
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 22
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
How far should we think for the future of BBI?
• Should we develop a vision for an ultimate stage of development for
BBI, despite of political concerns?
• Runway configuration Master plan of London-Heathrow after 1945
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 23
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
The World Busiest Airport
• Atlanta Int. (2008):
88 million passengers
970,235 flights
• How far is too far?
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 24
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
How far should we think for the future of BBI?
• Regional and airport planners must be creative and realistic in their
forecasts and long term views.
• Runways take 10 years of planning, approval and construction time
(economical life 40-100 years)
• Noise and local air quality increasingly important, but very difficult to
quantify & monetize for compensations
• The future is uncertain, but market outlooks predict further growth of air
transportation
• We can learn from other airports already:
– London Heathrow in 2010: saturated most of the day
– Munich in 2010: congested during daily peak hours
• Possible near Future for BBI? ->
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 25
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
Current Plan London Heathrow (2020?)
• Strong public opposition against 3rd runway
• Environmental and Legal battle will be endless
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 26
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
Current Plans for Munich (2020?)
• Munich 2 had been under restrictions from 1993 on.
• 3rd runway is strongly opposed, but will be built
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 27
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
Vision
• Commitment and Continuing Discussion towards aviation needs
(including General and Business Aviation).
• Neighbours of airports should be kept well informed about future
developments, even if 20 years or more in advance.
• Master plans must present long-term views with high and low growth
forecasts.
• Runways are long-term investments, which are depreciated over 50 to
100 years, so long-sided visions needed.
• Apart from looking at runway capacity, environmental capacity could
become more critical in the future.
• Simulation is the tool to make airport capacity planning and (noise)
impact forecasts, realistic, transparent, safe and fair.
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 28
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
Thank you for your attention! Questions?
Suggestions and Comments are welcome.
Full study available after:
International Conference
OPERATIONS RESEARCH
MUNICH 2010
www.gap-projekt.de
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin – 10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo Page 29
GERMAN AIRPORT
PERFORMANCE
GERMAN AVIATION
BENCHMARKING
GARS Workshop at ILA Berlin –
10.06.2010 – Branko Bubalo