The Netherlands - CBREnieuws.cbre.nl/download/140864/2016capitalmarketsoutlook.pdf · RESEARCH THE...
Transcript of The Netherlands - CBREnieuws.cbre.nl/download/140864/2016capitalmarketsoutlook.pdf · RESEARCH THE...
Executive Summary 3
Economic Outlook 5
Investment Outlook 7
Debt Market 11
Non-listed Market 15
C o n t e n t s
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CBRE RESEARCH © CBRE B.V. 2016 THE NETHERLANDS REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2016
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EU
BE
DK
DL
ES FR
IT
NL
UK
PT
AT
0.5%
0.7%
0.9%
1.1%
1.3%
1.5%
1.7%
1.9%
0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%
CPI (
exc.
Ener
gy) '
15Q3
% y
-o-y
GDP '15Q3 % y-o-y
Figure 1: GDP Growth and core inflation above the EU-average
ESTABLISHED RECOVERY PRUDENT RECOVERY
Source: Eurostat, December 2015; compiled by CBRE Research
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Economic growth outpacing EU-average
E M B E D D E D U P T U R N
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2004
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x Bn Office Retail Industrial Residential Hotel Other
Figure 2: Investment volume (€ Bn)
Source: CBRE Research
INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
Appetite remains strong
Revival of retail
T R A N S I T I O N O F C A P I TA L
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INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
R E A L E S TAT E C A P I TA L F LO W S I N TO T H E N E T H E R L A N D S 2 0 1 5
EUROPE OTHER
€ 0.61 bn 5.3%
DOMESTIC € 5.20 bn
44.9%
NETHERLANDS TOTAL
€ 11.6 bn
AMERICAS € 2.18 bn
18.8%
UNITED KINGDOM € 1.60 bn
13.8% GERMANY € 0.98 bn
8.4% MIDDLE EAST
€ 0.11 bn 0.9% FRANCE
€ 0.32 bn 2.8%
APAC € 0.59 bn
5.1%
Source: CBRE Research
© CBRE B.V. 2016 CBRE RESEARCH THE NETHERLANDS REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2016
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CBRE RESEARCH © CBRE B.V. 2016 THE NETHERLANDS REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2016
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INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
The transition of capital
Figure 3: Highly diversified purchaser types in the market (2015)
39%
8% 23%
14%
11%
5%
Institutional / Investment fund
Private investor
Listed / REIT
Private equity
Property company (privately owned)
Other
Source: CBRE Research
T R A N S I T I O N O F C A P I TA L
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DEBT MARKET
Moving up the cycle
Market opening up
High street banks
Pfandbrief banks
Insurance companies
Investment banks
D I V E R S I F I E D L A N D S C A P E
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High street banks 0 0
Pfandbrief banks + --
Insurance companies + -
Investment banks ++ +
Debt Funds + ++
DEBT MARKET
Debt funds
Niche lenders
D I V E R S I F I E D L A N D S C A P E
Figure 4 : Indicative risk-return profiles
CBRE RESEARCH © CBRE B.V. 2016 THE NETHERLANDS REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2016
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DEBT MARKET
Outlook
Loan sales
D I V E R S I F I E D L A N D S C A P E
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Mill
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Trade Volume (LHS) Reported Number of Trades (RHS)
Figure 5: Historic PropertyMatch European trading volumes
Source: PropertyMatch
NON-LISTED MARKET
Different flavors Strengthening secondary market
I N C R E A S I N G L I Q U I D I T Y
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© CBRE B.V. 2016
RESEARCH