Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies: Interim Report
The Near Earth Object Threat: An Effective Public Communication Strategy
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Transcript of The Near Earth Object Threat: An Effective Public Communication Strategy
THE NEAR EARTH OBJECT THREAT:
AN EFFECTIVE PUBLIC
COMMUNICATION STRATEGY
Matteo Emanuelli
Bruno Sarli
Niels Van Der Pas
Lauren Lyons
Behnoosh Meskoob
Daniele Paglialunga
Shripad Jagdale
3 October, 2014
International Astronautical Congress
Toronto, Canada
IN SUPPORT OF THE UNITED NATIONS
PROGRAMME ON SPACE APPLICATIONS
IAC-14.E5.5.5 The NEO Threat: An Effective
Public Communication Strategy10/3/2014
IN SUPPORT OF THE UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMME ON SPACE APPLICATIONS 2
Introduction: Space Generation Congress 2014
IAC-14.E5.5.5 The NEO Threat: An Effective
Public Communication Strategy
• Action Team 14 and IAWN
• Space Generation Congress 2013
Recommendations
• Communication Plan
• Education Program
• Case Study
• Asteroid Intensity Scale
10/3/2014
IN SUPPORT OF THE UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMME ON SPACE APPLICATIONS 3
PRESENTATION OUTLINE
IAC-14.E5.5.5 The NEO Threat: An Effective
Public Communication Strategy10/3/2014
IN SUPPORT OF THE UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMME ON SPACE APPLICATIONS 5
Action Team 14 and IAWN
Action Team on Near-Earth Objects (AT-14) established in 2001 by UN
COPUOS to review content, structure and organization of efforts on NEOs
and make proposals to foster international coordination.
In 2013 UN endorsed the creation of International Asteroid Warning Network
(IAWN) and Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG)
IAC-14.E5.5.5 The NEO Threat: An Effective
Public Communication Strategy10/3/2014
IN SUPPORT OF THE UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMME ON SPACE APPLICATIONS 7
Space Generation Congress Recommendations
• Effective communication plan: long, medium and short-term actions
• NEO Education Program: General public / Policy makers / Students
• Identifying communicators at national level
• Recognized importance of an Impact Disaster Planning Advisory Group
• New NEO intensity scale to connect threat and emergency procedures
• In case of danger, international agreement on data sharing, emergency
aids and collaboration
IAC-14.E5.5.5 The NEO Threat: An Effective
Public Communication Strategy10/3/2014
IN SUPPORT OF THE UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMME ON SPACE APPLICATIONS 9
Communication Plan
• Preservation of lives: communication, security
and immediate action
• Panic to be avoided, threat not to be
underestimated. Inform on prevention
and mitigation actions
• Target: Governments & Public. Start
education program. Foster truthful
depiction of NEOs and their effects
and assure reliable information to
media. Avoid spreading of false
information
IAC-14.E5.5.5 The NEO Threat: An Effective
Public Communication Strategy10/3/2014
IN SUPPORT OF THE UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMME ON SPACE APPLICATIONS 10
Communication Plan
MSN UK (16/08/2014)
IAC-14.E5.5.5 The NEO Threat: An Effective
Public Communication Strategy10/3/2014
IN SUPPORT OF THE UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMME ON SPACE APPLICATIONS 12
Education Program
IAC-14.E5.5.5 The NEO Threat: An Effective
Public Communication Strategy
• Pretty important media coverage
• “What if” situation
What if…the 2013 observation by ESA’s Herschel Space Observatory would have confirmed a possible impact in 2036?• Torino Scale 5
• Regional destruction, millions of casualties
• Governments to operate with IAWN
• Communication and transparency
• Movements of opinion (religion, conspiracy theories, economic lobbies etc.) opposing early preparations
LONG-TERM is critical
• 2029. New observations confirm the impact
• Global economic crisis
• General panic mitigated by communication plan and education program
• Actions to relocate population from danger areas
10/3/2014
IN SUPPORT OF THE UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMME ON SPACE APPLICATIONS 14
Case Study: 99942 Apophis
IAC-14.E5.5.5 The NEO Threat: An Effective
Public Communication Strategy
NEO Intensity Scale (NIS)
• Event’s magnitude
• Position on the globe (population density, building structure)
• Only for 8,9,10 of Torino scale
• Future works: take into consideration other emergency scales and studies
10/3/2014
IN SUPPORT OF THE UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMME ON SPACE APPLICATIONS 15
Asteroid Intensity Scale
• To categorize impact hazard: Torino
Scale & Palermo Technical Impact
Hazard Scale
• Different scale to take into
consideration only the effect on
ground, connected to mitigation
actions
• Inspired by Mercalli intensity scale
for earthquakes (distinct from
Richter scale, which measures the
energy released)
IAC-14.E5.5.5 The NEO Threat: An Effective
Public Communication Strategy10/3/2014
IN SUPPORT OF THE UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMME ON SPACE APPLICATIONS 16
Conclusions
• Necessity of Communication plan: recent alarms with 1950 DA
has shown traditional and non-traditional media are not ready.
• Establishment of international and national emergency services to
have communications lines in place before they are needed
• NIS based on consequences of impacts.
Special Thanks
Ray & Carol Williamson