the National Security Strategy

Vital interests

Threats Resilience

ALL-HAZARD APPROACH

NATIONAL SECURITYthe ‘Dutch definition’

5 vital interests: Territorial security Phsyical safety Economical security Ecological security Social and political stability

Societal disruption

All-hazard approachSafety and security

NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY

GOAL: To increase our national resilience through insight in threats and capabilities

• Multi-sector approach• Ministries remain primarily responsible – for

prevention and preparation and – in cooperation with the ministry of Security and Justice – for response

• Ministry of Security and Justice is primarily responsible for crisismanagement

• Government-wide cooperation based on equality• Public-private cooperation

WORKPROCESS

Threat/RiskAnalysis

RiskAssessment

Tasks CapabilitiesPolicy

initiatives

Which threats do we face?

What is the impact?

What do we need to do?

What do we need to have?

Strategic foresight

Short-termanalysis

National RiskAssessment

CapabilitiesAnalysis

Political Decision

ACTORS INVOLVED

Scenario

Impact

RISK

Likelihood

RISK: likelihood and impact

10 IMPACT CRITERIA

1. Territorial security

2. Physical safety

3. Economical security

4. Ecological security

5. Social and political stability

1.1 infringement of territorial integrity 1.2 infringement of the international position of the Netherlands

2.1 fatalities2.2 seriously injured or chronically ill2.3 physical suffering (lack of basic necessities)

3.1 costs

4.1 longterm impact on environment and nature (flora & fauna)

5.1 disruption of everyday life5.2 violation of the democratic system5.3 social-psychological impact

Uncertainties in risk assessment• Experts should state source of

know-how (e.g. empirical data)

• Available empirical data may not be rejected, replaced or removed

• Experts should differentiate between uncertainties (due to a lack of knowledge) and differences of opinion between experts

• Records should be kept of all references, sources assumptions and uncertainties used by experts

WORKPROCESS

Threat/RiskAnalysis

RiskAssessment

Tasks CapabilitiesPolicy

initiatives

Which threats do we face?

What is the impact?

What do we need to do?

What do we need to have?

Strategic foresight

Short-termanalysis

National RiskAssessment

CapabilitiesAnalysis

Political Decision

CAPABILITIES ANALYSIS

GOAL: Identifying capabilities that help reduce the impact and/or likelihood of a threat.

General capabilitiesThe capabilities analysis primarily identifies capabilities that have a positive effect on more than one type of threat. reasons are:cost-efficiency and also covering unknown threats

Prevention Preparation Response Recovery

TRADITIONAL PARADIGM

RESILIENCE

POLICY INITIATIVES

• All ministries: • Responsible ministry leads capabilities analysis• Secretariat by NCTV

• Experts:• Private sector and critical infrastructure companies• Thematic experts (e.g. social media)• Other bodies of government:

• Local/Regional• International

• Societal organisations and civilians

ACTORS INVOLVED

WORKING TOGETHER

Different responsibilities – Common interest To avoid societal disruption

• Government: Prevent fatalities and injury and prevent a loss of confidence in government

• Private sector: Prevent loss of income/profit/customers• Individuals: Prevent personal losses (cash,

gas/water/electricity)

POLITICAL ACCOUNTABILITY

• Yearly report to Parliament about:• The National Risk Assessment• Priorities (based on Capabilities analysis)• Progress on previous priorities

• Interdepartmental cooperation:• Interdepartmental Workinggroup on National Security (IWNV)• Steeringgroup National Security (SNV)• Council on Safety and Security• Council of ministers

ADVICE & DECISIONMAKING PER STEP

Riskassessment Capabilities Analysis

Choosing themes

Policy Initiatives

Scenario-development

IWNVSNV

Coregroup IWNVNetwork of Analists

IWNVSNV

Workinggroup

Capabilities Analysis

IWNVSNVMRRoles:

Decisionmaking

&Advice E.g.:

Network of Analists

Ministries

Thinktanks

Safety Regions

Steps workprocess

QUESTIONS?

PRIVATE SECTOR & CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

• Critical infrastructure sectors:• products, services and underlying processes that, if interrupted,

can cause societal disruption• The dependency of society on these (mostly) basic needs is a

reason to take extra measures.

• Critical infrastructure in NL: 12 sectors, partly public, mostly private companies

• What is expected of C.I.-sectors?• Resilience, garanteed continuity, prevention of disruption

• Mutual aim: to avoid losses as a result of discontinuity• Mutual interest: shared notions of possible risks and ‘solutions’

CIVILIANS & SOCIETAL ORGANISATIONS

• Openness to the public on risks:• Risk map on the internet: www.risicokaart.nl• Mass communication campaign

•Resilience of citizens•Public participation (encourage citizens to act)

• Implementing a cell-broadcast system

• Cooperation with societal organisations:• Red Cross & Orange Cross (Disaster response and first aid)• Educational organisations• Knowledge & advice organisation for post-disaster psychosocial care• Center for Crime-prevention and Safety

THE INTERNATIONAL CONNECTION

• International attention for risk-analysis is rising:• EU (guidelines for risk assessment)• NATO (Civil Protection Committee)• OECD (future global shocks)• UN (ISDR-Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015)

• Similar approaches in different countries (UK, France, Germany, Norway, Canada, The Netherlands)

• But many different ways of organising the process

• Exchange on methodology, process and outcomes• Exchange of experiences, also in crisissituations