The National Climate Assessment – Preparing for the Climate of the Future

May 9, 2014

Moderator: Kathy Jacobs: Director, Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions,

University of Arizona

Renewable Energy Series Starts on June 2, 2014

www.ssfonline.org

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June 26th 1:15 to 2:45 PM ET- Webinar #1 – The US Federal Agency Market: Meeting Energy Reduction and Renewable Energy Mandates: July 10th Webinar #2 – Renewable Energy Technology Applicability July 24th Webinar #3 – The Effective Marriage of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency in an ESCO Contract for Municipalities, and Educational and Hospital Campuses: August 7th 1:15 to 3:45 PM ET- Webinar #4 – The Intersection of the Microgrid, Renewable Energy, and Storage. August 21st 1:15 to 3:45 PM ET- Webinar #5 – Public Private Partnerships (PPP) September 4th 1:15 to 3:45 PM ET- Webinar #6 – The Leading Edge of New Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Technologies Coming to the Market September 18th 1:15 to 3:45 PM ET- Webinar #7 – Developing the RFP

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Kathy Jacobs, Director, Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions, University of Arizona. Formerly, Director of the National Climate Assessment, and Assistant Director for Climate Assessments and Adaptation, White House Office of Science & Technology Policy

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• Introductions & NCA Update: Kathy Jacobs

• Panelist Discussion:

Emily Cloyd: , United States Global Change Research Program Anne Waple: Second Nature Jim Buizer: University of Arizona

• Audience Questions: Send your questions through the chat box

• Thank you! Please fill out the audience exit survey

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Anne Waple: Director of Resilience Initiatives at Second Nature, Inc. Formerly, Program Specialist for the Global Change Information System, USGCR.

Emily Cloyd: Public Participation and Engagement Coordinator for the National Climate Assessment, USGCRP.

Jim Buizer: Director, Climate Adaptation and International Development, Institute of the Environment; Professor, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona. Member, Executive Committee, National Climate Assessment Development Advisory Committee

Climate Change Impacts in the United States

Third National Climate Assessment

Kathy Jacobs Director, Center for Climate

Adaptation Science and Solutions University of Arizona

Planning for the Climate

of the Future Webinar May 9, 2014

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov

US Global Change Research Program

Global Change Research Act (GCRA 1990):

“To provide for development and coordination of a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.”

13 Federal Departments & Agencies + Executive Office of the President

More information at http://www.globalchange.gov

The NCA Process – What’s New?

Inclusive, broader expertise

300 authors

60 member Federal Advisory Committee

Public engagement

Listening sessions around the country

Request for information, input reports

Focus on sustained assessment

Ongoing assessment activities planned to support the quadrennial reports

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The NCA Process, What’s New? (cont.) New topics covered

Oceans, Coasts, Urban, Rural, Land use

Cross-sector links like Energy/Water/Land

New format

Digital products and interactive website

Highlights, GCIS, traceable accounts

Extensive Review and Transparency

– National Academy of Sciences, agencies, public review, responses to all comments

– Links to underlying data and references, traceable accounts

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Products: Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

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• Full report (digital) – Interactive, web-based

– Includes traceable accounts

– Linked to data and source

• Website – Full report & Highlights in HTML

– Graphics (high-resolution files, interactive figures)

– Supporting information

• Highlights (148 p) (10K printed & pdf)

• Regions (2 pages each, pdf)

• Report Findings and Climate Trends (4 pages each, pdf)

Sample pages from Highlights

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Outline for Third NCA Report

• Climate Change and the American People

• Overview and Report Findings

• Our Changing Climate

• 7 Sectors & 6 Sectoral Cross-cuts

• 8 Regions & 2 Biogeographical Cross-cuts

• Responses • Research Needs

• The Sustained Assessment Process

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Regions & Biogeographical Cross-Cuts

Coasts

Oceans and Marine Resources

Cross-cutting Chapters

Sectoral Cross-cutting Chapters

– Energy, Water & Land Use

– Urban Systems, Infrastructure and Vulnerability

– Indigenous Peoples, Lands and Resources

– Land Use & Land Cover Change

– Rural Communities

– Biogeochemical Cycles

Regional Crosscutting Chapters

– Coastal Zones, Development and Ecosystems

– Oceans and Marine Resources

Responses

•Decision Support

•Mitigation

•Adaptation

•Research Needs

•The Sustained Assessment Process

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Report Findings Our changing climate: Global climate is changing and this is apparent across the United States in a wide range of observations.

Observed U.S. Temperature Change

Report Findings

Our changing climate: The global warming of the past 50 years is primarily due to human activities, predominantly the burning of fossil fuels.

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Report Findings Extreme weather: Some extreme weather and climate events have increased in recent decades, and

Observed Change in Very Heavy Precipitation

new and stronger evidence confirms that many of these increases are related to human activities.

Report Findings Future climate: Human-induced climate change is projected to continue, and it will accelerate significantly if global emissions of heat-trapping gases continue to increase.

Report Findings Widespread impacts: Impacts related to climate change are already evident in many sectors and are expected to become increasingly disruptive across the nation throughout this century and beyond.

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Report Findings Human health: Climate change threatens human health and well-being in many ways, including through more extreme weather events and wildfire, decreased air quality, and diseases transmitted by insects, food, and water.

Projected changes in tick habitat

Wildfire smoke has widespread health effects

Report Findings

Infrastructure: Infrastructure is being damaged by sea level rise, heavy downpours, and extreme heat; damages are projected to increase with continued climate change.

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Report Findings Water: Water quality and water supply reliability are jeopardized by climate change in a variety of ways that affect ecosystems and livelihoods.

Trends in Flood Magnitude per Decade 100 Degree Days, 2011

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Report Findings Agriculture: Climate disruptions to agriculture have been increasing and are projected to become more severe over this century.

Crop Yields Decline Under Higher Temperatures

Report Findings Indigenous peoples: Climate change poses particular threats to Indigenous Peoples’ health, wellbeing, and ways of life.

Wild rice is unable to grow in its traditional range

Chronic stresses such as extreme poverty are exacerbated by heat and drought

Impacts in Alaska include damage to infrastructure due to melting permafrost

Report Findings

Ecosystems: Ecosystems and the benefits they provide to society are being affected by climate change. The capacity of ecosystems to buffer the impacts of extreme events like fires, floods, and severe storms is being overwhelmed.

Fisheries Shifting North

Report Findings

Oceans: Ocean waters are becoming warmer and more acidic, broadly affecting ocean circulation, chemistry, ecosystems, and marine life.

Ocean Acidification Reduces the Size of Clams

Report Findings Responses: Planning for adaptation (to address and prepare for impacts) and mitigation (to reduce future climate change, for example by cutting emissions) is becoming more widespread,

but current implementation efforts are insufficient to avoid increasingly negative social, environmental, and economic consequences.

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Coasts Coastal lifelines, such as water supply infrastructure and evacuation routes, are increasingly vulnerable to higher sea levels and storm surges, inland flooding, and other climate-related changes.

Gulf Coast Transportation Hubs at Risk

Climate Change Impacts in the United States

- http://nca2014.globalchange.gov -

Third National Climate Assessment

@usgcrp

facebook.com/usgcrp

#NCA2014

Main Messages

• The NCA3 is the largest and most comprehensive evaluation of climate change and impacts in the United States

• Americans across the country are feeling the effects – extreme weather, sea level rise, heavy downpours, heat waves

• There is evidence in all regions and sectors that climate change is happening now

• There are important opportunities to manage what is causing climate change and prepare for its effects

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Anne Waple

Emily Cloyd

Jim Buizer

Kathy Jacobs

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How will this NCA provide a platform for support of practical decision-making in the next few years? (in other words, what role does the sustained assessment expect to play in 'climate services' writ large).

How was the public participation process for NCA3

different from previous NCA efforts? Roles of government and private sector.

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Join us for the Next Webinar Series on

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Registration is Open

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The National Climate Assessment – Preparing for the Climate of the Future

May 9, 2014

Moderator: Kathy Jacobs: Director, Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions,

University of Arizona

Renewable Energy Series Starts on June 2, 2014

www.ssfonline.org

42