The Narrow Corridor.dixitak/home/CorridorReviewFinal.pdf · 2020. 6. 5. · kicking, we are seeing...
Transcript of The Narrow Corridor.dixitak/home/CorridorReviewFinal.pdf · 2020. 6. 5. · kicking, we are seeing...
1
FinalversionJune5,2020
“Somewhereinthemiddleyoucansurvive”:
ReviewofTheNarrowCorridorbyDaronAcemogluandJamesRobinson
AvinashDixit1
Abstract
ThisarticlereviewsAcemogluandRobinson’sbookTheNarrowCorridor.
Theydepictaconstanttusslebetween“society,”whichwantslibertybutcannot
sustainorder,and“state,”whichmaintainsorderbutgrowsoppressive.Iarguethat
thebookhasahugethemeandanimpressivehistoricalsweepofsupportive
examples,butleavesmanyopenquestions.Thetwoconceptualcategoriesshouldbe
unpackedtoexaminecomplexinteractionswithinandacrossthem,andother
examplesthatcountertheauthors’thesisshouldbereckonedwith.However,the
authorsdeservecongratulationsforabrilliantlywrittenandthought-provoking
bookthatwillinspiremuchfutureresearch.
JELClassifications:Y30,P51,O43,N10
1PrincetonUniversity.IthankTimothyBesley,ToreEllingsen,KarlaHoff,RobertSolow,andStevenDurlauf(theeditor)forvaluablecommentsonearlierdrafts.Thetitleofmyarticlecomesfromthefinalsceneofthe1987comedymovieThrowMommafromtheTrain,writerStuSilver.
2
1.Introduction
Peopleoftenexaggerateandextrapolatetoomuchfromthemostrecent
observation,andnotjustinfinancialmarkets.ThecollapseoftheSovietempire
broughttriumphantassertionsofaliberaldemocraticfuture,mostnotablyTheEnd
ofHistory(FrancisFukuyama1992).Nowthathistoryhasreturnedroaringand
kicking,weareseeingbookslikeHowDemocraciesDie(StevenLevitskyandDaniel
Ziblatt2018).Ittakesamuchlongerandbroaderhistoricalperspective,andmuch
deeperanalysis,togetbetterandbalancedinsightonthehugequestionofwhether
governmentscanberestrainedfromoppressingtheircitizenswhileretainingthe
capacitytoprotectthem.Intheirlatestbook,TheNarrowCorridor:States,Societies,
andtheFateofLiberty,DaronAcemogluandJamesRobinson(AR)provideboththe
historyandtheanalysisinamazingquantityandhighquality.Theiroverarching
themeofconflictbetween“society”thatseekslibertyand“thestate”thatseeks
oppressivepowerspansthewholebook;eachchapterorsectiondiscussesone
aspect,withexamplesandanecdoteswellchosentosupporttheirargumentsin
eachcase.TheexamplesrangeoverhistoryfromGilgameshtoTrump,andover
geographyfromthecity-stateofAthenstoHawaiiandtotheZulunation,withmany
stopsandexcursionsalongtheway.
Iamimpressedbytheirargumentsandevidence,butnotfullyconvinced.In
myjudgmentthecategoriesintheirtheoryaretoobroadlydefined,andinteractions
thatshouldbeoftheessencebothwithinandacrosscategoriesarerelegatedto
afterthoughts.Manyoftheirexamplesremindmeofothersthatgoagainsttheir
claims.
InthisreviewIwilldiscusstheseconcerns.Foreach,IwillstatewhyAR’s
analysisseemsinadequate,offeringsomeexamples.Iapologizeforthefactthatmy
examplesaremostlyrestrictedtorecenttimes;alas,Ilackthebroadanddeep
historicalknowledgethatARsoabundantlydisplay.
Mycriticismsareintendedtosuggestwaysinwhichtheanalysisshouldbe
developed,extended,andmodifiedinfutureresearch;theyshouldnotobscuremy
3
admirationforthebook.Everyweakpointinapaperorabookisaresearch
opportunity,andthisbookisclearlyofsufficientlygreatimportancetograbthe
attentionandinterestofallscholarsofsociety:historians,economists,andpolitical
scientistsalike.Itsclaimsandhypotheseswillbetestedandrefinedinfurtherwork
bythetwoauthorsthemselvesandbyathousandothers.Iamsureenoughwill
standthetestoftime,andevenmorewillspurfurtheradvances,toestablishthis
bookasanimportantlandmarkinthesocialsciences.
2.Thecentralquestion
ARaddressoneofthebiggestquestionsconfrontinghumankind:2howcan
libertybepreservedagainsttheopposingdangersofdisorderononehandand
oppressionontheother.
TheirdefinitionoflibertyfollowsJohnLocke:“perfectfreedom[ofpeople]to
ordertheiractionsanddisposeoftheirpossessionsandpersons,astheythinkfit…
withoutaskingleave,ordependinguponthewillofanyotherman”(p.xi).Thisis
notonlyafundamentalhumanrightandaspiration(theyquoteLockeagain:“noone
oughttoharmanotherinhislife,health,libertyorpossessions”)butalsoimportant
forsustainedeconomicgrowth,since“[i]nnovationneedscreativityandcreativity
needsliberty”(p.114).3
AR’sthesisisthatthefateoflibertyhingesonadelicatebalanceinanever-
endingtusslebetween“society”and“thestate.”Intheirdichotomy,societywants
liberty,butfindsitdifficulttosolvethecollectiveactionproblemofmaintaining
order–“controlviolence,enforcelaws,andprovidepublicservices”(p.xv).Forthat
societyneedstobuildastrongstate,andtosupportitafteritexists.Butsocietyalso
2Inmyviewitranksrightuptherewithavoidingnuclearconflictandmitigatingandreversingclimatechange,andhasbeenwithusformuchlonger.3IwillgiveonlythepagenumbersfromtheAcemoglu-Robinsonbookwhencitingorquotingfromit.Fullpublicationdetailsofthebook,andallotherreferencescitedbyauthor-yearinthetext,arelistedattheendintheusualformat.
4
needsto“controlandshacklethestrongstate”toavoidthe“fearandrepression
wroughtbydespoticstates”(pp.xv,xvi);thatisanothercollectiveactionproblem
(p.50).
Astatelesssociety(AbsentLeviathan)candegenerateintototaldisorder.It
triestopreventthistosomeextentbyevolvingandusinginternalnormsand
beliefs.Butthesenormsareacage:theyconstrainbehaviorsandactions,favor
someinsocietyoverothers,andinhibitthecreativityandinnovationessentialfor
progress(pp.23-24,142-146,andmanyexamplesandapplicationsthroughoutthe
book).4Thestatecantakeoverthetaskofmaintainingorder,therebyrelaxingthe
cageofnorms,butcaneasilybecomeoppressive(DespoticLeviathan),toserveits
owninterests,levyheavyandarbitrarytaxes,andrestrictfreedomofthoughtand
actioninwaysthatarebadforeconomicprogress(pp.17-18,113-114,andmany
others).BetweenthesetwobadsituationsistheNarrowCorridorwithaShackled
Leviathan(pp.64-65,402,andothers).Herethestatehasenoughpowertomaintain
order,butnotsomuchastobeoppressive.Thispreserveslibertyandfacilitates
economicgrowth.Giventheopposingpullsthatthestateandsocietyexert,to
sustainthisbalancetakesanever-endingstruggle:theRedQueeneffectwhere“it
takesalltherunningyoucando,tokeepinthesameplace”(pp.41,66,72-73,and
manyothers).5
Theideaiscapturedinaverysimplediagram(pp.64,402,435inthebook,
andFigures1,2and8intheirpaperAR(2017));Ishowaslightlysimplifiedversion4And,althoughARdonotemphasizethisaspect,society’snormsoftenincludeaspectsofreligionandorganizationthatreducesomedimensionsoflibertyforsomepeopleandgroups.5InasensethisideagoesbackfartherthanLewisCarrolltothefamoussaying:“thepriceoflibertyiseternalvigilance.”ThishasbeenvariouslyattributedtoThomasJefferson,AbrahamLincolnandothers,butprobablythecorrectsourceistheIrishpoliticianandlawyerJohnPhilpotCurran:“TheconditionuponwhichGodhathgivenlibertytomaniseternalvigilance”.SpeechupontheRightofElection,1790.(Speeches.Dublin,1808.)https://www.bartleby.com/100/pages/page1047.htmlaccessedApril28,2020.TheimportantnewfeatureinARisthetwo-sidednessofvigilance:onpartofbothsocietyandstate.
5
hereasFigure1.Themathematicalanalysisisspelledoutindetailinthepaper,and
Iwillrefertoitatvariouspointsinmydiscussion.
.Figure1:Dynamicsofstate-societyinteraction
Thesocietyandthestateconstitutethewholepolity.Theaxesshowthe
powersofthetwo,eachrangingfrom0to1.Thetwoareengagedinadynamic
game.Eachchooseshowmuchtoinvesttoincreaseitspower.Denotesocietyby
subscript1andthestatebysubscript2.Denotethepowerlevelsby𝑋! and
investmentlevelsby𝐼! for𝑖 = 1,2.Thepowerlevelsarelikecapitalstocksthat
depreciateovertime,andinvestmentsarelikeflows.Thecostsofinvestmentare
functions𝐶!(𝐼! ,𝑋!),withincreasingreturnsinthesensethatthemarginalcostof
investmentisadecreasingfunctionof𝑋! .
Eachperiod’soutputisaproductionfunction𝐹(𝑋!,𝑋!);thiscapturesthe
possibilitythatamorecapablestateandastrongercivilsocietycanbothenhance
efficiency,butatworst(andinAR’sstartingassumption)outputcanbeaconstant
independentofthepowerlevels.Eachperiod’soutputgoestothewinnerofa
contestbetweenthestateandsociety.Thesuccessprobabilityisafunctionof
(0,0) (1,0)
(0,1)
Power of society
Pow
er o
f sta
te
S1
S2 I II
III
.(1,1)
6
𝑋! − 𝑋!andsingle-peakedat0,sotheincentivetoinvestisstrongestforbothsides
whentheirpowerlevelsareequal.Afreshcontesthappenseachperiod,andsuccess
isindependentacrossperiods,sooverthelongrunthedivisionofcumulative
outputisgovernedbytheprobabilities,whichevolveovertimewith𝑋!and𝑋!.
Scaleeconomiesininvestmentandtheformofthecontestsuccessfunction
arethekeysubstantiveassumptions,andgoodstartingpoints,butmoreonthem
later.Therearesometechnicalassumptionsandspecificationsoffunctionalform
thatservemainlytoruleoutuninterestingcasesandsimplifythesolutionofthe
model,butatonepointthefunctionalformseemstomatter(seeSection5.2below).
AR(2017)provethat,dependingoninitialconditions,thepolityconvergesto
oneofthreetypesofsteadystates.InRegionIofthefigure,thestateisrelatively
strongandsocietyisrelativelyweak.Withthescaleeconomiesofinvestmentcost,
thisdiscrepancymagnifies,andtheendresultistheDespoticLeviathan:apolity
wherecivilsocietyispowerlessandthestateisstrongandoppressive.Theopposite
happensinRegionIII,resultingintheAbsentLeviathan:apolitywherethestateis
essentiallynon-existent,theHobbesian“Warre…ofeverymanagainsteveryman”
createsaconstantdangertopropertyandeventolife,andasocietythattriesto
avoidsuchtotaldisorderbydevelopinginternalnormsislockedintotheircage.
However,ineachoftheseregionsthe“winning”sideinthesteadystatedoesnot
usuallyattainitsmaximumpower,namely1.InRegionIthesteadystatecanbe
anywherealongthelinesegmentlabeledS2,andinRegionIIIitcanbeanywhere
alongS1.Thatiswhy,forexample,thedespoticstateisusuallyunabletoachieve
efficienteconomicoutcomes.6
InRegionII–theNarrowCorridorofthetitleandtheShackledLeviathanof
theclassification–thetwopowersarebalanced,andeachsidefindsitoptimalto
makesufficientinvestmenttoretainthisbalance(theRedQueeneffect).Powersof
bothgrow,andwilleventuallyconvergetothesteadystateat(1,1),thepointof
maximumpowersforboth.Thatalsoyieldsoptimaleconomicoutcomes.However,if
6MancurOlson(1993)reachesasimilarconclusionbutwithadifferentargument,namelytheinherentinsecurityoftenureandsuccessionindictatorships.
7
bothpowersareinitiallysmall,theninvestmentisverycostlyforboth(remember
theeconomiesofscaleininvestmentcost).Thatmayreduceinvestmentstothe
pointthatthebalanceisdestroyedbyasmalldiscrepancyinpowers;thereforethe
corridorisextremelynarrowtothesouth-west.Thatallowsforatransitiondirectly
fromRegionIIItoRegionI(disordertodespotism)withouttransitingthecorridor.
Ofcoursesuchmodelsshouldnotbetakenasliteralorcompletedescriptions
oftheworld;theyshouldbeusedforchannelinganddiscipliningourthinking.AR’s
bookdoesindeedusetheformalmodeloftheirpaperinthisway.Forexample,the
formalmodelstartsfromanexogenousinitialcondition,i.e.agivenpointinthe
(𝑋!,𝑋!)-space.Aliteralinterpretationwouldbethatpolitiesarefatedtofollow
whateverfatetheirhistoricalconditionmayentail.ButARhaveexampleswherethe
initialpointcanbeshiftedormanipulated(Chapter14,especiallypp.434-435),and
theyusethesetodiscusshowapolitycanenterthenarrowcorridor.Thisisentirely
appropriate.
ButIwillarguethatthereareplaceswherethemodelneedsserious
alterationorextensiontoserveasagoodguidetothought.Onceagain,Idothisto
spurfutureresearch,nottodenigratetheachievementsofthebooksofar.
3.Whatis“society”?
AR’sbasicpictureisof“civilsociety”:acollectivityofindividualsunanimous
intheirdesiretoprovideandprotectlibertyforallmembers.Butsocietiesalmost
everywhereandatalltimesaresplitbywideanddeepcrevassesalongmany
dimensions:race,class,income,wealth,economicideology,nationalityorethnic
origin,andmostimportantlyandmostdisastrouslythroughouthistory,religion.
RealityseemsclosertoTomLehrer’ssongaboutNationalBrotherhoodWeek:7
7Videoathttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIlJ8ZCs4jY;lyrics,togetherwithblanketpermissiontoquote,canbefoundathttps://tomlehrersongs.com/,bothaccessedApril18,2020.
8
“Oh,thewhitefolkshatetheblackfolks
Andtheblackfolkshatethewhitefolks.
Tohateallbuttherightfolks
Isanoldestablishedrule.”
“Oh,thepoorfolkshatetherichfolks
Andtherichfolkshatethepoorfolks.
Allofmyfolkshateallofyourfolks.
It'sAmericanasapplepie.”
“OhtheProtestantshatetheCatholics
AndtheCatholicshatetheProtestants
AndtheHindushatetheMuslims
AndeverybodyhatestheJews.”
Ifthatistoofrivolousforyou,hereisaserioustopscholar(Allen2017):“theworld
hasneverbuiltamultiethnicdemocracyinwhichnoparticularethnicgroupisinthe
majorityandwherepoliticalequality,socialequality,andeconomiesthatempower
allhavebeenachieved.”8
OfcourseARrecognizethat“ignoringconflictswithinsocietyisahuge
simplification”(p.65),andintheirnarrativediscussionstheymentionsuch
conflicts.Butinmyjudgmentthereismuchmoretoit.Theriftswithinsociety,and
riftsamongactorswhocomprisethe“state”(whichIdiscussinthenextsection),
enterthegamebetweenstateandsocietyinAR’smodelincrucialways.
Forexample,Chapter8describesIndia’scastesystemingreatdetail:its
originsfromancienthistory,itsdefactocontinuationtothisday,andpernicious
effectsofthecageofnormsithascreated.Indianpoliticiansonallsideshave8Thereistheaddedproblemthatthecompositionofthe“majorityethnicgroup”maychangeendogenouslyovertime.ForexampletheIrish,theItalians,andtheeast-EuropeanJewswereout-groupsintheUnitedStatesinthe19thandearly20thcenturies;nowtheyareverymuchpartofthewhiteJudeo-Christianmajority.
9
strategicallyexploitedthecaste(andreligion)divisionstoacquireandretaintheir
ownpower.Thusriftswithin“society”havecruciallyalteredthestate-societygame.
Similarly,theirdiscussionofsociety’sriftstheUnitedStates(Chapter10)isallabout
mattersliketheSupremeCourt’sinterpretationoftheconstitution,andpublic-
privatepartnershipstoprovideservicesliketransportandmedicalcare;theysay
littleornothingaboutthedeliberatestrategiesusedbythetwomainparties–the
southernDemocratsuntilthemid-1960s,andtheRepublicanssincethen–tokeep
aliveandexploitracialandculturalprejudicesandconflictswithinsociety.
SuchstrategiesareabsentfromtheARmodel,buttheyareoftheessencein
explainingfailurestoenterortostayinthecorridor.Theyshouldbeincorporated
intothetheoryfromtheoutset,notasafterthoughtsoradhocadjustmentsin
narrativeapplications.9AR’simportantclaimthat“populistmovementswill
ultimatelyleadtodespotismwhentheycometopower”(p.421)isbeyondthe
scopeoftheirformalmodel,anditshouldnotbe.IwillelaborateonthisinSection5,
afterarguingtheneedforsimilarunpackingofAR’sothercategory,thestate.
4.Whatis“thestate”?
ForAR,thestateconsistsoftheelites.Thisisoftentrue,buttheboundary
betweentheelitesandtherestisfluid.Ashiftintheboundaryandcanpavetheway
fromthecorridor(andalsodirectlyfromdisorder)totheDespoticLeviathan.
NapoleonemergedfromthechaosoftheFrenchrevolutiontobecomeemperor(and
toestablishothermembersofhisfamilyaskingsofothercountries).Whoknows
whatwouldhavehappenedwithouthim.Someofthesetransitionsmaybe
accidental,butthedesiretojointheelitedrivesmanyactionsofindividualsinthe
society,andmayalterwhattheywouldotherwisehavedonetopursuethecauseof
theirgroupinthestate-societyconflict.Manyofthebest-educatedIndians
competedforplacesintheIndianCivilServiceandthenservedtheBritishRaj
9InAcemogluandRobinson(2000)onextendingthefranchise,dichotomybetweentheenfranchisedeliteandthedisenfranchisedmassesseemedmuchmorenatural;hereitdoesnot.
10
loyally,takingactivepartinsuppressingtheirfellow-Indians’strugglefor
independence.
Thedefinitionof“elite”shiftsovertimeandvariesacrossspace,anddoesnot
coincidewith“state”.ARoffertheMagnaCartaasanexampleof“society”securing
libertyfromthe“state”andlaunchingEnglandinthecorridor(pp.174-178).But,
eventhoughtheMagnaCartahadsomeprovisionstoprotectallfree(andinsome
respectsevennon-free)men,itwasmainlytheinitiativeofbarons,whoshouldbe
regardedassociety’selitebyalmostanycriterion,butwerenotfullypartofthe
state.Libertyforeveryoneinthesensewewouldunderstand–securityoflifeand
propertyfromotherpeopleorfromarbitrarydemandsofthestate,votingrights,
andsoon–tookhundredsofyearsmore.10Itwasagradualprocess,includingsteps
likelocalmini-constitutions(pp.178-180)andtheSuffragettemovement(p.xvii).
Theseinvolvedmorecomplexstate-societyandelite-commonerinteractionsthan
aresuggestedbyAR’sformalcategories.
Perhapsmostdramatically,ARdescribe(pp.188-194)howtheEnglish
parliament,whichwas“society”constrainingtheking(state)formostofthe17th
century,turnedintothe“state,”whichthelargerEnglishsocietyhadtoconstrainin
the18thand19thcenturies.Some,atleast,ofthisbiggersociety’svictoriescouldnot
havebeenwonwithoutmuchsympathyandactivesupportfromprominent
membersofthenewstate(parliament),forexampletheWhigaristocracyandLord
JohnRussellandEarlGreyintheprocessthatledtotheGreatReformActof1832.
ARexplaintheexpansionofthefranchisebasedontheelite’sfearofrevolution;
morepositivemotives,namelyaviewof“reformasessentialtoreducethe
pervasivenessofpatronageandtocoaxthemachineryofgovernmenttoservethe
publicpurpose,”isdiscussedbyLizzeriandPersico(2004).10Asacynical,satiricalbutperceptivehistoryofEngland(WalterSellarandRobertYeatman1931,chapterXIX)putsit,MagnaCarta’sprovisionsincluded“1.Thatnoonewastobeputtodeath,saveforsomereason(excepttheCommonPeople)”and“5.ThattheBaronsshouldnotbetriedexceptbyaspecialjuryofotherBaronswhowouldunderstand”(emphasisadded).Theyconclude:“MagnaCartawasthereforethechiefcauseofDemocracyinEngland,andthusaGoodThingforeveryone(excepttheCommonPeople)”(emphasisintheoriginal).
11
Justassocietyhasitscrevasses,sotoodoestheelite.Differentfactionsofthe
elitevieforpower,andtheirstrategiesalterAR’spictureofthetusslebetweenstate
andsocietyinfundamentalways.IwilldiscussthisinSection5.
Butfirstadifferentissue:whatgoesonissometimesbetterdescribedasan
intra-stateconflict.Forexample,fromAR’saccountofthemiddle-eastduringand
afterthe18thcenturyIthinkitwasnotastate-societyconflictbutanintra-elite
matter:a“symbioticrelationshipbetweentheulama[Moslemscholarswho
interpretSharialaw]…and…despoticstates”(p.388).Thetwoengagedinpower
strugglesorformeduneasyalliances“marryinguncheckeddespotismwithan
intense(andintensifying)cageofnorms”(p.387).“Society,”orordinarypeople,
playedalmostnopart,exceptperhapsindecidingwhethertoaccepttheteachingsof
someoneclaimingtobeanulama(p.388).Andtherewerenofundamentaland
permanentprinciples;oneachoccasionthoseelitesjustfiguredoutwhatthey
wantedtodoatthattime,andthenfoundorbentprinciplestojustifyit.11
Next,contrarytoAR’sdepiction,thestateisnotalwaysdespotic,strivingto
increaseitsownpowerattheexpenseofsociety;thosefightingthestatearenot
alwayssociety’sforcesforgood.ThinkoftheSpanishcivilwar(ortheU.S.civilwar,
forthatmatter),Chileintheearly1970s,andmanyfanaticalgroupsofterrorists.
And,asIwritethis,crowdsinmanyAmericanstatesareprotestingagainst
executiveordersthatimposedlockdown,socialdistancingandwearingface-masks
duringthecoronaviruspandemic.Isthisaninstanceof“society”seekinglibertyin
oppositiontoadespotic“state”(astheagitatorsclaim),oronewherethestate
servesthesocialgoodbyconstrainingbehaviorthatinflictspotentiallydeadly
negativeexternalitiesonothers(asamajorityofthepopulation,andprobablymost
readersofthisjournal,think)?AR’sframeworkcarriestheriskthatthesubstanceof
theissuegetsconcealedbehindready-madelabels.
Thestateisnotasingleactor;mostimportantlyitfacesagencyproblems.At
aminimum,theelitehavetohirelargenumbersfromthenon-elitetoimplement
11PerhapsthatisnottoodifferentfromhowtheU.S.SupremeCourtoperatesinarrivingatitsdecisions!
12
theiroppressionandextortionofsociety.Despotsdorewardtheseagentswell
enoughtobuytheirservicesinactingagainsttheirfellownon-elite.Butensuringthe
qualityoftheirworkisasevereagencyproblem.Onewouldhavethoughtthat
Stalin,ofalldictators,hadpowerfulincentiveschemes(sticks,notcarrots)toforce
allSovietcitizenstomakegenuinelyStakhanoviteeffortsandgeneratehuge
surplusesforhisplansofinvestmentandgrowth.Toimplementtheseincentives
efficiently,heneededaccuratemonitoringofwhowasworkinghardandwhowas
slacking.Buthismonitoringapparatuswasvery“noisy”;itreliedonarbitrary
decisions,favoritism,anddenunciationsbymonitorswhowereinturnsubjectto
similarlyimperfectmonitoring.TheresultwaslargeerrorsofbothTypeI
andTypeII.TheprobabilityofendingupintheGulagwasnotverydifferent
whetherornotoneworkedormanagedwell,sotheexpectedmarginalreturnfrom
exertingeffortingreaterquantityand(especially)qualitywastoolow(Paul
GregoryandMarkHarrison2005,Section3.3).
Manyotherdespoticstates(Congo,Venezuela,…)areevenworse;their
administrativeapparatusissodefectivethattheyareperhapsbettercalled
ShambolicLeviathansinsteadofDespoticLeviathans.Theirperformancewouldbe
comicifitwerenotsotragicfortheirownpeople.ARdescribesimilarlyincapable
statesinChapter11,andlabelthemPaperLeviathans.Butthesearelargelynot
despotic.WhatIhaveinmindissomethingworse–statesthathavecapacityfor
oppression,butnotforgovernanceofaqualitythatwillatleastachievealittleof
whatARcalldespoticgrowth.
ARdiscusswhyaDespoticLeviathancannotreachitsoptimalpoint(0,1)in
Figure1,buttheirexplanationfocusesonthedespoticstate’stemptationtoincrease
itsrateoftaxationorextortiontoexcessive,counterproductivelevels(theKhaldun-
Laffercurve,pp.111-112),notsomuchonagencyproblemsandnoisymonitoring.
Andtheydiscusscorruptioninsomedetail(Chapter7andelsewhere).Corruptionat
thetoplevel(GrandCorruption)isoftenaninherentcharacteristicofDespotic
Leviathans,butcorruptionatlowerlevelsofgovernment(pettyandmiddle-level
corruption)isanagencyproblem.
13
AretheseissuesisolatedexceptionstoageneralrulethatconformstoAR’s
schemata?Perhaps,buttheyseemnumerousandimportantenoughtobestatedand
rememberedwhentheorizingabouthowthestate-societystruggleplaysoutinany
specificinstance.Theirexplicitincorporationintoamicrofoundedmodelofthestate
shouldbeanimportantcomponentoftheanalysisofstate-societyinteractionin
futureresearch.
5.Society-stateinteractions
5.1.Strategictargetingofpolicies
Elitesstrategicallyexploitconflictswithinsocietyontheirpathtodespotic
power,andtostaythere.Theyactivelyinterferewithsociety’sinternalgameof
solvingitscollectiveactionproblem,sosocietycan’tbegivenanexogenous(evenif
microfounded)cost-of-investmentfunctionlikeintheARmodel.,
Policyintherealworldhasmanydimensions–economic,cultural,religious,
ideologicalandon.Thedifferentdimensionshavedifferentsaliencefordifferent
segmentsofsociety,andelitescanstrategicallyexploitthesedifferencesinthegame
wheretheycontestforpoweragainstotherelites.Eachelementwithintheelitecan
undertaketorepresentasubsetofsocietyandadvocatepoliciesthatfavorthat
subset,accordingtoitsperceptionofwherethebestroutetopowerlies.Eliteseven
createandfosterthesefissureswithinsocietytowardthesamegoal.12
IntheUnitedStates,Republicanshaveexploitedthecultural,racialand
xenophobicangerandfrustrationsofwhiteless-educatedruralcitizenstogetthem
tovoteagainsttheirowneconomicinterests.Trump’scampaignandvictoryin2016
gavethesepeopleprideandsatisfactionthat“their”countryhadbeenrestoredto
them.SeeArlieRussellHochschild(2018)andRobertWuthnow(2018)fordetailed
sociologicalstudiesofthis.InBritain,similarforceswereimportantintheBrexit12InAR2017,section2.4,policyisone-dimensionalandpurelyabouteconomics:“thestateannouncesataxrate𝜏ontheoutputoftheproducers.Iftheproducersacceptthistaxrate,itiscollectedandtheremainderiskeptbytheproducers.Iftheyrefusetorecognizethistaxrate,therewillbeconflictbetweenstateandsociety.”
14
vote.India’sBJPhasexploitedanti-Muslimattitudesofmanyamongthemajority
Hindus;inIndianstates,regionalpartieshaveexploitedcastedividestoretainand
exploittheirlocalkleptocracies.Ifriftsinsocietydonotexist,theycanbecreatedor
exaggerated.Hardin(1995)demonstrateshowleaderscultivatehatredtomobilize
theirpeopleintoconflict–SerbversusCroatinformerYugoslavia,Hutuversus
TutsiinRwanda,CatholicversusProtestantinNorthernIreland.Andofcourse,
biasesandprejudicesagainstforeignersandimmigrantsaretemptingtargets.In
Europemanyright-wingandxenophobicpartiesandleadersgainedpower,gaineda
shareofpower,orconsolidatedpowerintoan“illiberaldemocracy,”probablyastep
onthepathtodespotism,asaresultoftheimmigrationandrefugeecrisisof2015.
And,ofcourse,allpoliticiansdisguisetheirtruemotivesbehindloftyassertionsthat
“thepeople”wantsuchandsuch.Allsuchphenomenaseemquiteoutsidethescope
oftheARmodel.
Thesevitalconcernsofourtimesgetonlyabriefmention(pp.425-426).AR
dodescribetheeventsintheWeimarrepublicthatledtoNazidespotism(pp.390-
405),butthataccounthardlyconformstothekindofstate-societyconflictoftheir
theory.Faultlineswithinsocietywereoftheessence;ARadmitasmuch(p.403-
404).Foranalysisstressingthesocialandinternationalaspectsbehindthefallofthe
WeimarrepublicandtheriseofHitler,seeMommsen(1996).Incorporatingthese
ideaswillrequireamajoroverhauloftheirmodel.Itisnotclearwhethersucha
modifiedmodelwillhaveacorridoratall.Instead,itmayhaveatightropewith
saddle-pointinstability,soalmostsurelythepolityisdoomedtooneoftheextremes
ofdespotismanddisorder.Thatseemsagoodquestionforfutureresearchers.
ARdohaveamicrofoundationssection(2017,section2.4)butnotamulti-
playergamewhereelementsofthe“state”areactively&strategicallytryingto
disruptsociety’scollectiveactioneffort,ortoformcoalitionswithonesubsetof
societytofavorthemselvesandthatsubsetwhileharmingothers,orwhere
differentfactionswithin“society”aredisruptinganyfunctioningofthestate.
Ataminimum,thestatecanexploitapathyofonegroupwhensomeother
groupisbeingoppressed.Bythetimetheapatheticrealizethefulleviloftheregime,
itistoolateforthem.ARdohighlight(p.495)thefamousquotationfromMartin
15
Niemöller,aLutheranministerandearlyNazisupporterwhowaslaterimprisoned
foropposingHitler'sregime,withitschillingconclusion:“Thentheycameforme,
andtherewasnoonelefttospeakforme.”Theybuildthisintoagoodsetofgeneral
principles:abasicsetofuniversalrightsshouldberecognized,anyencroachment
ontheserightsshouldbeopposedbyabroadcoalitionofthecivilsociety,andsoon.
Thesearebeautifulandcorrectprescriptions.Butinthelastanalysistheyarejust
necessaryconditionsforsolvingcivilsociety’scollectiveactionproblems,whichis
wherethewholestorystarted(pp.xv,xvi,50etc.citedearlier)!
Manyscholarsandobserverscanidentifynecessaryconditionsforagood
outcome;alas,noonehasasetofsufficientconditions.TheconditionsARlayoutin
Chapter15,especiallyfortheUnitedStates(pp.485-488),areinmyopinionfar
frombeingsufficient.Eventhoughcastintheirframework(avoidingazero-sum
RedQueencontestbetweenstateandsociety),theylookverysimilartothose
stipulatedbyotherscholarswithotherframeworks,andsimilarlystopshortof
providingconcreteguidance.
Awould-bedespot’spathtopowercanbefacilitated,nothindered,bythe
existenceofopposingelitesifthosecannotactinunison.Adividedsociety,and
multiplepartieseachwithitsownegotisticleader,cannotmounteffective
opposition.Thenthepartyinpowercanholdelectionsandpretendtouphold
democracy,whileenjoyingdefactoautocracy.Weallknowmanyexamples;more
maybecomingsoon!Asituationwherethestate’spowerislow(becauseithas
clashingelitesorwarlords)maybeespeciallyconducivetothedominantwarlord’s
orparty’smovesagainstsociety’sattempttomarshalandincreaseitscollective
actioncapability.Itisimportantforfutureresearchtostudysuchpossibilitiesina
modelthatwillhavetobeamajorextensionormodificationofwhatARnowhave.
5.2.Substitutesorcomplements?
Arethepowersofsocietyandstatesubstitutesorcomplements?Formally,
doestheproductionfunction𝐹(𝑋!,𝑋!)have𝜕!𝐹/𝜕𝑋!𝜕𝑋! < 0 or > 0?AR’sclaim
thatamajorroleofstatecapacityistorelaxthesociety’scageofnorms(especially
16
pp.19,146)suggeststheformer.Buttheirdiscussionofthedevelopmentof
parliamentsinEurope,resultingintheindustrialrevolutionandeconomicprogress
alongthecorridor(pp.178-200),suggeststhelatter.Whichcaseprevailscan
dependonthehistory,cultureandcircumstancesofindividualpolities.
ThecaseofstrategicsubstitutesmayhelpusbetterunderstandwhatARcall
the“zero-sumRedQueen”(pp.400,413etc.).Inthecaseofstrategiccomplements
eachsidehasgreaterincentivetoincreaseitsownpowerwhentheotherhasmore
power.13Thiswouldbetherightmodelofa“‘positivesum’RedQueen,whereboth
sidesultimatelystrengthenasaresultoftheircompetition”(p.400).Each,by
encouragingtheother’sinvestmentinpower,promotesgreatersocialsurplus.
Unfortunatelyintheirformalmodel,eveninthemoregeneralversion(2017,
Section5),ARconsideronlytherazor’s-edgecasewithneithersubstitutesnor
complements:theyassumealinear𝐹(𝑋!,𝑋!),so𝜕!𝐹/𝜕𝑋!𝜕𝑋! ≡ 0.Generalizingthe
modelinthisrespectandfindingouthowtheresultschangewillenablebetter
contactbetweentheformalmodelandsomeofthenarratives.Myguessisthatin
thesubstitutescasethecorridorwillbecomenarrowerorevenvanish,whereasin
thecomplementscasethecorridorwillbewider,especiallyifthewinner-take-all
natureofthecontestisalteredfollowingmynextsuggestion.
ThissuggestionconcernsAR’sassumptionthatateveryinstantthewinnerof
thestate-societyconflictgets100%ofthepolity’ssurplus.Evenwhenthetwosides
areforward-looking,theydonotseemtorealizethattheywillwinsomeofthetime
andloseatothertimes.Thisbuildsinthe“zero-sumRedQueen”featureinan
extremeform.Itmakesnodifferenceifbotharerisk-neutral,butthatisnotsucha
goodassumptioneither.Inamoregeneralmodelwithrisk-aversion,bothsidescan
dobetterthangettingeverythingwhentheywinbutzerowhentheylose.The
dynamicgamehasself-enforcing(subgame-perfect)equilibriawherethewinning
sidetakeslessthan100%inexchangeforgettingmorethan0whenitlosesatsome
futuredate;howmuchless,andhowmuchmore,isgovernedbydynamicincentive
constraints.Indeeditispossibletocharacterizethebest(Paretoefficient)such
13Ingame-theoreticterms,thebestresponsecurvesareupward-sloping.
17
equilibria;seeAlbertoAlesina(1988),andAvinashDixit,GeneGrossmanandFaruk
Gul(2000).BringingthisfeatureintotheARsettingcanyieldarichharvestof
understandingofpoliticalcompromisesandmoderationinexerciseofpower.After
paintingapicturedarkerthanthatofARinmanyrespects,Iamhappytosuggesta
mechanismthatoffersmorepositivepotentialforstayinginthecorridor.
5.3.MaisOùSontlesTortillas-Boulangersd’Antan?
AR’smodelhasafirst-bestoptimalsteadystateatthenorth-eastcornerof
thecorridor,wherebothstateandsocietyhavetheirmaximumpowers,andthis
steadystateisastableattractorformovementsalongthecorridor.Thebookgives
someappealing,almostbeautifullypoetic,picturesofpolitieslaunchingintothe
corridorandprogressingalongit.ButalmostnoneoftheseexamplesofaShackled
Leviathanhaveendured,letalonereachedtheblisspoint.Wherearethetortilla-
bakers(pp.147-151)ofyesteryear?Eventhefewcurrentpeacefulstate-society
cohabitationsseemonthevergeoffallingapart(pp.425-426).Sure,nothinglasts
forever,butwhatwentwrongeventually?Wasitatotallyidiosyncraticshock,
differentineachexample,orwastheresomecommonfactor?Iftheformer,the
unifying,overarchingframeworkseemsabitshaky.Ifthelatter,thecommonfactor
shouldbeidentifiedandincorporatedintothemodel.Ineithercase,themodel
needstobeextendedbyallowingforsomelargestochasticshocks,asthatcanalter
theoptimaldecisionsofbothsidestoinvestinacquiringgreaterpowers.
IntheirearlierbookWhyNationsFail,ARplacedgreatemphasisontherole
ofcontingency:“Therichlydivergentpatternsofeconomicdevelopmentaroundthe
worldhingeontheinterplayofcriticaljuncturesandinstitutionaldrift.…The
outcome,however,isnothistoricallypredeterminedbutcontingent.Theexactpath
ofinstitutionaldevelopmentduringtheseperiodsdependsonwhichoftheopposing
forceswillsucceed,whichgroupswillbeabletoformeffectivecoalitions,andwhich
leaderswillbeabletostructureeventstotheiradvantage.”Thisperspectiveseems
missing,certainlydownplayed,inTheNarrowCorridor.Infactthedynamicsofthe
reducedformmodelintheunderlying2017paperisentirelydeterministic;see
18
equations(7),(11)and(12)andPropositions1and3.Ibelievethatformally
modelingtheemphasisoncontingency,andintheinterpretationsofhistoryinits
lens,shouldbeanimportanttopicinfutureresearch.
6.Whatis“liberty”?
Libertyhasmultipledimensions.ARandmostoutsideliberalobservers
(includingme)wouldtakeaverybroadview.Butsomesocietiesmaycarealot
aboutsomedimensionsandlittleaboutothers.Theymaybesatisfiedwitheconomic
materialprogress,andwillinglysacrificefreedomofthoughtandexpressiontothat
end.ThisisoftenclaimedtobesoinChina,Singapore,andsomeothercountries.In
thatcase,astatethatisoppressiveinmattersweinthewestregardasimportant
aspectsoflibertymaymeetthatsociety’sapproval.WouldA-Rcountthatasa
ShackledLeviathan,constrainedasitisbytheimperativeofprovidingasufficiently
goodeconomicperformance?Probablynot;theywouldsaythatwithoutfull
freedomofthought,expressionanddissent,truecreativityandinnovationcannot
prevailandeconomicprogresswillstall.ButespeciallyinviewofChina’srecent
stridesinfrontiertechnologicalprogress,thisremainsanopenquestion.
Andwhoselibertyarewetotakeintoaccount?Nowadayswethinkofa
“country”ora“nation-state”astheappropriateunit,andratethemonsome
measureofliberty,suchastheFreedomHouseindex.14Buteventhosemeasuresare
opentochallengebysomeorallofthedividedsocietieswithinthenation-statesand
byoutsideobservers.DotheRohingyasandRakhineshavelibertyinMyanmar,and
forthatmatter,dotheBamarpeople?WhataboutUighersandTibetansinChina?
WhataboutArabsinIsrael,andshouldweincludetheWestBankinthatcontext?
Shouldimmigrantsandtemporaryworkersenjoythesamelibertiesascitizensof
longstanding?Onesubsetofthesesocietieswillmaintainthattheyenjoygreat14Athree-tierclassificationofcountriesintoNotFree,PartlyFree,andFreeisshowninamapathttps://freedomhouse.org/explore-the-map?type=fiw&year=2020;scrollingonacountrydisplaysitsnumericalscoreona0-100scale.
19
liberty,whileotherscomplainbitterlythattheyareoppressed.Shouldwetakethe
average,orsomeRawlsiancriterionthatemphasizestheworst-off?
Whenfissureswithinsocietymeetmultipledimensionsofliberty,subgroups
areperfectlywillingtodenysomedimensionsoflibertyvaluedbyothers,while
insistingontheirownlibertiesindimensionstheyvalue.IntheUnitedStates,
conservativesinsistonthefreedomofgunownershipwhiledenyingwomen’s
freedomofchoiceconcerningabortionrights,andliberalsfavortheopposite.
7.Interactionsacrosspolities
InthestoriesARtell,eachpolityisonitsown;thereisnointeractionacross
theseentities.Inreality,suchinteractionsarefrequentandveryimportant,bothin
causingthefallofdespoticregimesandinsupportingsuchregimesagainsttheir
owncitizens.WithoutNATO’sinterventioninSerbiainthe1990s,whoknowshow
muchworsethosesocietieswouldhavebeen.Ontheotherhand,thecivilsocietyin
CzechslovakiacouldhavewonitsstruggleagainsttheCommunistdictatorshipinthe
PragueSpringof1968butfortheinvasionoftheSovietarmy,whichtheMoscow
governmentclaimedwasattheinvitationoftheCzechpeople.15
AR’saccountofSouthAfrica’ssuccessfulentryintothecorridor(Chapter14,
pp.430-434)payslittleattentiontothepressureexertedonthewhiteminority
governmentandbusinesspeopleofSouthAfricabythegovernmentsofsomeother
countries,andevenmoreimportantlybycivilsocietiesinmanyothercountries.The
sanctionsnotonlyinflictedeconomiccosts(thesegetonlyonesentenceonp.452),
butalsocreatedthepsychologicalcostforSouthAfrica’swhitepopulationofbeing
theworld’spariahs.(Alas,thatcountry’ssojourninthecorridormaynotcontinue
forlongbeyondtheinspiringleadershipofNelsonMandela.Hissuccessorshave
15Apoliticaljokesoonmadetheundergroundrounds(GregBentonandGrahamLoomes,1976):“Q.WhydidtheRussianssendsomanytroops?A.TofindtheCzechmanwhoinvitedthem.”
20
shownbothatendencytowardoppressionandaninabilitytomaintainorder;the
countrymaythereforeendupwithaShambolicLeviathan.)
InSyriaforalmostadecadethestruggleofdemocraticforcesagainstthe
Assadregimehasbeendrasticallyalteredmanytimesandindifferentdirectionsby
theinterventionsoftheUnitedStates,Iran,Russia,andTurkey.Theircoalitionswith
localdemocrats,IS,andKurdishpopulationshaveformed,reformed,andsometimes
made180-degreeturns.(ArecentaccountisinLukeMogelson(2020).)Whichever
localorforeignpartyprevails,itsvictorywillprobablyprovepyrrhic.
Evenwithoutmilitaryinterventionorboycotts,thetradeandinvestment
policiesthatemergefromonecountry’ssociety-stateinteractioncanaffectother
countries’liberty.AsARsay(pp.195-196),“thestate…hadnoproblemimpinging
onthelibertyofothers;forexample[England’s]NavigationActsmadeitillegalfor
foreignshipstocarrygoodstoEnglandoritscolonies,helpingEnglishmerchants
andmanufacturersmonopolizetrade.”TheJonesActoftheUnitedStateshasa
similareffectformaritimecommercebetweentwoUSports.Butsuchinteractions
acrosscountrieshavenoplaceinAR’smodel.
Andofcourse,real,hypothetical,ortotallyfabricatedthreatsfromother
countries,immigrants,foreignterrorists(and“foreign”viruses!)provideconvenient
excusesfordespotsandwould-be-despotstocoveruptheirownfailures,andto
expandtheirpowerswithsupportfrommanyorevenalloftheirlong-suffering
citizens.
Onthepositiveside,informationaboutcompromisesreachedinonepolityor
somepolitiesmayinfluencesimilarconflictresolutioninothers,asexemplifiedby
AR’saccount(pp.182-185)ofthenear-simultaneousemergenceofparliamentsor
similarbodiesinmanycountriesofEuropeinmedievalandearlymodernperiods.
Thisisanicestory,butquiteoutsidethescopeoftheirformalmodel.Itwillbe
worthextendingthemodeltoseewhetherandhowsuchpositiveinformational
flowscanalterthepoliticaldynamicsinmultiplecountries.Negativeeffectsarealso
conceivable;disillusionmentwithdemocracyinonecountrymayspreadtocitizens
ofothercountries.
21
Allsuchmulti-countryinteractionsareanotherdirectioninwhichAR’s
modelingandnarrativescanandshouldbeextendedandenriched.
8.EuropeandChina
ARviewthepoliticalandeconomicdevelopmentofalmostthewholeworld
overseveralthousandyearsthroughthelensoftheirmodel,andoffernew
interpretations,especiallyaboutEurope(Chapter6)andChina(Chapter7).16
Statedverybriefly,theyarguethatinthethousandyearssinceemperors
ClovisandCharlemagne,manypolitiesinEuropestruckagoodbalancebetweenthe
Romaninstitutionsofacentralizedstatewithitslegalandadministrativeapparatus
(conducivetotheemergenceofaDespoticLeviathan)andthebottom-upGermanic
traditionsofpeople’sassembliesandnorms(riskingdisorderandthe“cage”).This
combination,andanongoingtusslebetweenthetwosystems,ledtomovementto
thenorth-eastalongthecorridor,createdincentivesforinvestment,innovationand
creativity,andculminatedinthemoderneconomywithitshighproductivity,major
scientificandtechnologicaladvances,highstandardsoflivingforthegeneral
population,andcontinuedgrowthpotential.
AR’saccountofChinaalsofeaturesdualphilosophiesforgovernance:
Confucianism,whichesteemed“thepeople,”andlegalism,whichfavored
dominationbyastrongruler(basicallyaHobbesianLeviathan,orthestate)over
society.ButallthetimeforjustovertwothousandyearsfromtheQindynastytothe
Qing,rulewasbasicallydespotic.Successiverulersoscillatedbetweenthetwo
philosophieswithouteverstrikingagoodbalance(thecorridor).Phaseswithless
despotismallowedsomeinnovationandcreativity,butbecauseoftheinherent
weaknessofdespotism(thetemptationtoraisetaxesandfallonthewrongsideof
theKhaldun-LaffercurvementionedinSection4),theeconomicoutcomewasnever
verygood.
16Otherperspectivesoneconomicdevelopmentof,andcomparisonsbetween,EuropeandChinaincludeLandes(1998)andScheidel(2019).
22
Thisisanappealingpicture,especiallyforthoseinclinedtofavorlifeundera
liberaldemocraticregime.Butfurtherthoughtraisesseveralquestionsanddoubts
aboutthisaccountofbothregions.Letmementionjustafewthatoccurredtome.
Forstarters,IthinkARaretoonegativeaboutChina’stechnological
achievementsbeforetheearly1400sCE,widelyregardedasworld-leadingforthat
time.JosephNeedham’smonumentalandstillongoingproject(Needhametal.
1954–)givesmoredetailthanmostreaderswouldwant.Buttomentionjustafew,
paper,moveabletype,magneticcompass,gunpowder,crossbow,largeships(and
longvoyagesofexplorationusingthem),eventhehumbleumbrella–quitealist.AR
maysimilarlybeunderestimating(pp.230-234)thepotentialoftoday’sChinese
firmstoleadandachievefrontiersoftechnology,forexamplein5Gforcellular
networks.ButbythestandardofformerChinesepremierZhouEnlai’s(apocryphal)
verdictontheFrenchrevolution,“Itistooearlytotell.”
InEurope,manypolitiesfoughtlongandbitterwarsamongthemselves:the
HundredYears’War,theThirtyYearsWar,VikingandlaterSwedishinvasions,
Napoleonicwars,theFranco-Prussianwar,thetwoWorldWars,thelistislong.Itis
hardtoargueforprogressalongthecorridorineachpolityonitsown,without
takingintoaccounttheeffectofallthiswarring.Next,thepolitysituatedfarthest
fromRome,namelyPrussia,developedoneofthestrongestdespoticsystems,and
anarmytomatch.ARexplainthis(pp.273-274)asaconsequenceofwars:“Withbig
guns,thestatecouldcontrolmore.Buttogetbigguns,itneededmoretaxrevenue.
MoretaxrevenueswouldbeeasiertoraiseifFrederickWilliamcouldincreasehis
poweroversociety,andthat’swhathedid.”ButEngland’sstatecapacitytoraise
taxes(orborrow)increasedaftertheGloriousRevolutionof1688(pp.188-189)that
reducedtheking’spower.(Theparliament,althoughitselfbeginningtoassumethe
roleof“thestate,”wasveryfarfrompossessingthelevelofpowerthatFrederick
Williamneededtoraisemorerevenue.)
Also,despoticPrussiainthelate19thandearly20thcenturieshada
remarkableburstofcreativityandinnovationinscienceandengineering.Indeedfor
awhileGermanwasalmostthefirstlanguageofscience;Berlinwasperhapsthe
centerofthescientificworld;BritishandAmericanscientistsregularlyvisited
23
Germanyorstudiedthere,andfollowedGermanresearchjournals.Allinall,AR’s
accountsofthedifferenttrajectoriesofdifferentcountriesinEuropeseemratherad
hoc,notverywelltiedintotheiroverallframeworkofstate,society,andthe
corridorthatbalancestheirpowers.
LookingattherecordofconflictinEurope,Iwonderifconflictcanactually
spurratherthanhindercreativityandtechnologicaladvances.17PerhapsHarry
Lime’smemorable,althoughinaccurate,statementinthemovieTheThirdManhasa
germoftruth:“InItalyforthirtyyearsundertheBorgias,theyhadwarfare,terror,
murder,bloodshed.TheyproducedMichelangelo,daVinci,andtheRenaissance.In
Switzerland,theyhadbrotherlylove,fivehundredyearsofdemocracyandpeace,
andwhatdidtheyproduce?Thecuckooclock.”18
Iwouldlikefutureresearchtofocusonstatisticalworkthatsupplementsand
reexaminesAR’sillustrativecasestudies.Isthereapositivecorrelationacross
Chinesedynastiesbetweenthevalueofinnovationsproducedunderadynastyand
itsturnawayfromdespotisminthelegalisticframework?Isthereapositive
correlationacrosspolitiesinEuropebetweeneconomicoutcomesandtheirbalance
ofRomanandGermanicsystems,controllingforotherrelevantfactorslikeinter-
polityconflicts?Andsoon.Thiswillbehardtodo,butanecessarystepbeyond
supportingexamplesandtowardunderstandingbroadertendenciesandcausation.
17Harnessingandmanagingconflicttospurinnovationisawell-knownthemeinbusinessliterature,forexampleColemanandFerguson(2014).Likewise,thefeedbackbetweenwarandstatecapacityisfamous;seeCharlesTilly(1975,p.42).HereIamaskingwhetherindividualslivingunderdisorderordespotismmightactuallybemorecreativeorinnovativethanthoseinAR’scorridor,perhapsbecausetheyhavetobetosurviveinthosedifficultconditions.18Seehttps://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_third_man/quotes/.ThelineisnotinGrahamGreene’snovelonwhichthemoviewasbased;itseemstohavebeenimprovisedattheshootingbyOrsonWelles.Forinaccuraciesintheassertion,seehttps://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-19202527.BothsitesaccessedMay1,2020.
24
9.Calltoaction
AcemogluandRobinsonhavewrittenabrilliant,thought-provokingbook.
Theirmodelofadynamicgamepittingforcesofdisorderagainstthoseofdespotism
isavaluablecontributiontofocusthoughtandanalysis.They,andothers,should
extendandmodifythistorecognizethemorecomplexmulti-playernatureofthe
game:fissureswithineachoftheirtwoplayers,stateandsociety,andcoalitions
acrosssubgroupsofthetwo.Theyshouldalsorecognizeexamplesthatgoagainst
theirmaintheme.Confidenceinatheory’svalueasaguideforinterpretingsociety
andhistoryisamatterofdegree;oneneednotinsistthat100.000%ofevidencefits
it.Exceptionsalsosuggestwaystofurtherimprovethetheory.Finally,matterssuch
asculture,identity,ideology,andnon-rationalactorshavereceivedmuchattention
recentlyinthesocialsciences.AR(andI)havesaidlittlesystematicaboutthem,but
theycouldplaybiggerrolesinfuturework.
Iamsurethatnumerousscholarswillbeintriguedandinspiredbythebook’s
thesisandexamples.Itwillleaveahugeandlastingimpactonfutureresearchinall
thesedisciplineswithinthesocialsciences.Ihopethisarticlewillplayasmallrole
inspurringthislargebodyofresearchtocome.
REFERENCES
Acemoglu,DaronandJamesA.Robinson.2000.WhydidtheWestextendthe
franchise?Democracy,inequality,andgrowthinhistoricalperspective.
QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,115(4),November,1167-1199.
URL:https://doi.org/10.1162/003355300555042
------and------.2012.WhyNationsFail:TheOriginsofPower,ProsperityandPoverty.
NewYork:Currency.
------and------.2017.Theemergenceofweak,despotic,andinclusivestates.
Cambridge.MA:NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,WorkingPaperNo.
23657.Availableathttp://www.nber.org/papers/w23657VersiondatedMay
30,2018,retrievedApril23,2020.
25
------and------.2019.TheNarrowCorridor:States,Societies,andtheFateofLiberty.
NewYork:PenguinBooks.
Alesina,Alberto.1988.Credibilityandpolicyconvergenceinatwo-partysystem
withrationalvoters.AmericanEconomicReview78(5),September,796–805.
URL:https://www.jstor.org/stable/1811177
Allen,Danielle.2017.CharlottesvilleIsNottheContinuationofanOldFight:ItIs
SomethingNew.WashingtonPost,August13.URL:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/charlottesville-is-not-the-
continuation-of-an-old-fight-it-is-something-new/2017/08/13/971812f6-
8029-11e7-b359-15a3617c767b_story.html
Benton,GregandGrahamLoomes.1976.BigRedJokeBook.London:PlutoPress.
Coleman,PeterT.andRobertFerguson.2014.MakingConflictWork:Harnessingthe
PowerofDisagreement,NewYork:HoughtonMifflinHarcourt.
Dixit,Avinash,GeneM.Grossman,andFarukGul.2000.Thedynamicsofpolitical
compromise.JournalofPoliticalEconomy108(3),June,531-568.URL:
https://doi.org/10.1086/262128
Fukuyama,Francis.1992.TheEndofHistoryandtheLastMan.NewYork:TheFree
Press.
Gregory,PaulandMarkHarrison.2005.Allocationunderdictatorship:Researchin
Stalin’sarchives.JournalofEconomicLiteratureXLIII(3),September,721–761.
URL:https://doi.org/10.1257/002205105774431225
Hardin,Russell.1995.OneforAll:TheLogicofGroupConflict.Princeton,NJ:
PrincetonUniversityPress.
Hochschild,ArlieRussell.2018.StrangersinTheirOwnLand:AngerandMourningon
theAmericanRight.NewYork:TheNewPress.
Landes,DavidS.1998.TheWealthandPovertyofNations.NewYork:W.W.Norton.
Levitsky,StevenandDanielZiblatt.2018.HowDemocraciesDie.NewYork:Crown.
Lizzeri,AlessandroandNicolaPersico.2004.Whydidtheelitesextendthesuffrage?
Democracyandthescopeofgovernment,withanapplicationtoBritain’s“ageof
reform”.QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,119(2),May,707765,,URL:
https://doi.org/10.1162/0033553041382175
26
Mogelson,Luke.2020.America’sAbandonmentofSyria.NewYorker,April27,32-
45.URL:https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/04/27/americas-
abandonment-of-syria
Mommsen,Hans.1996.TheRiseandFalloftheWeimarRepublic.ChapelHill,NC:
UNCPressBooks.
Needham,Josephetal.1954–.ScienceandCivilizationinChina,Vols.I–.Cambridge,
UK:CambridgeUniversityPress.
Olson,Mancur.1993.Dictatorship,democracy,anddevelopment.AmericanPolitical
ScienceReview,87(3),567-576.URL:https://www.jstor.org/stable/2938736
Scheidel,Walter.2019.EscapefromRome:TheFailureofEmpireandtheRoadto
Prosperity,Princeton,NJ:PrincetonUniversityPress.
Sellar,WalterCarruthers,andRobertJulianYateman.1931.1066andAllThat:A
MemorableHistoryofEngland.NewYork:E.F.Dutton.
Tilly,Charles.1975.TheFormationofNationalStatesinWesternEurope.Princeton,
NJ:PrincetonUniversityPress.
Wuthnow,Robert.2018.TheLeftBehind:DeclineandRageinSmall-TownAmerica.
Princeton,NJ:PrincetonUniversityPress.