The Nail, March, 2016

March, 2016 l The NAIL 1

2 The NAIL l March, 2016

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The official magazine ofHome Builders Association

of Middle Tennessee

PresidentRandall Smith

Vice PresidentJohn Zelenak

Secretary/TreasurerKeith Porterfield

Executive Vice PresidentJohn Sheley

Editor and DesignerJim Argo

StaffConnie NicleyPat Newsome

THE NAIL is published monthly by theHome Builders Association of MiddleTennessee, a non-profit trade associationdedicated to promoting the Americandream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee.

SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomesmanuscripts and photos related to theMiddle Tennessee housing industry forpublication. Editor reserves the right toedit due to content and space limitations.

POSTMASTER: Please send addresschanges to: HBAMT, 9007 OverlookBoulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027.Phone: (615) 377-1055.

THE

NAIL


FEATURES

10Housing recovery still

looking up NAHB index shows that an improving

economy and continuing job creation are strengthening national housing markets.

DEPARTMENTS

6News & Information

13SPIKE Club Report

14March Calendar

14Chapters and Councils

ON THE COVER:The housing recovery continues to show

gradual improvement according to NAHB’s Leading Market Index. Story on page ten.


Nationwide housing starts dropped 3.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.099 million units

in January, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Ur-ban Development and the Commerce Depart-ment. Overall permit issuance edged down 0.2 percent.

“January’s production numbers are in line with our recent HMI reading and show that builders are being cautious as they face some market uncertainties and supply side constraints,” said NAHB Chairman Ed Brady, a home builder and developer from Bloomington, Ill.

“Despite the modest dip in starts this month, we expect to see ongoing, gradual growth in housing production in 2016,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “An improv-ing economy, solid job creation and pent-up

demand for housing should keep the market moving forward.”

Both single- and multifamily production dropped in January. Single-family housing starts fell 3.9 percent to a seasonally ad-justed annual rate of 731,000 units while multifamily starts declined 3.7 percent to 368,000 units.

Combined single- and multifamily starts fell in all four regions in January, with the West, South, Northeast and Midwest posting respective losses of 0.4 percent, 2.9 percent, 3.7 percent and 12.8 percent.

Multifamily permits rose 2.1 percent to a rate of 482,000 while single-family permits fell 1.6 percent to 720,000.

Regionally, the Midwest, West and South registered respective permit gains of 26.5 per-cent, 24.5 percent and 0.3 percent. Permits fell in the Northeast by 55.4 percent. n

Housing starts fall 3.8 percent in January

NEws&INfo


Home-buyer preferences constant-ly evolve, making it a challenge to stay up to date on who wants what.

Luckily, the majority of buyers – regardless of age – are looking for the same features in a community.

One of NAHB’s latest studies shows which community amenities are the most sought after. The study, Housing Preferences of the Baby Boomer Generation, captures the opinions of more than 4,300 prospective home buyers and compares the wants of Boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) to those of seniors (born before 1946), Gen-Xers (born 1965 to 1979), and Mil-lennials (born after 1979).

Though the priority rankings vary slightly between generations, the results of the study reveal these different age groups actually have very similar tastes.

Among the top four most-wanted ame-nities, three were the same for every age

group: They all desire to live in a commu-nity that’s typically suburban, with close proximity to a park area, and that has access to walking/jogging trails.

All of the groups – except Millennials – ranked being located near retail space in their top four. Millennials, instead, chose playgrounds as their fourth-most-wanted community amenity. (Gen-Xers ranked play-grounds at No. 8.)

The other most desirable community ameni-ties listed by all of the age groups included: a swimming pool, lake and exercise room.

When comparing the groups’ lists of their top eight amenities, only two items varied:

Playgrounds – not surprisingly, these have minimal significance to the majority of se-niors and boomers.Outdoor maintenance service – apparently, not very popular among either of the younger two generations.

In addition to community amenities, the sur-vey covered many other items, including pref-erences in home size, layout, features, technol-ogy and environmental impact. It also looked at preferences in street design.

For more detailed information, go to EyeO-nHousing.org. The full study is available at NAHB BuilderBooks. n

All age groups in the study desired to live in a (typically) suburban community with close proximity to a park area and with access to walking and jogging trails.

Three community amenities topping home buyer wish lists

Remodelers who are certified by the En-vironmental Protection Agency (EPA) to work on homes that may contain

lead paint under the Lead: Renovation, Re-pair and Painting (RRP) rule now have the option to complete refresher training online, according to an EPA announcement. Howev-er, EPA recertifications obtained via an online refresher course will be valid for only three years, versus five years for hands-on training courses, and can only be exercised every other recertification cycle.

“As a longtime advocate for a simplified recertification process, NAHB Remodelers appreciates that the EPA’s changes provide some flexibility, but the limited and convo-luted parameters of the online training op-

tion are unnecessarily complicated and could affect the number of renovators who opt to become recertified,” said NAHB Remodel-ers Chair Tim Shigley, CGR, CAPS, CGP,

GMB, GMR, a remodeler from Wichita, Kan. “Whether they choose to refresh their training online or in person, with the March 31 recertification deadline looming for over 100,000 remodelers, and thousands more lat-er in 2016 and 2017, remodelers are left with precious little time to meet their recertifica-tion obligations.”

Additionally, certified renovators who were grandfathered in under a HUD or EPA lead-based paint training course before the RRP rule was adopted must attend a refresher course with a hands-on component. The rule also made several streamlining and clarifying changes to RRP provisions that apply to train-ing providers. The EPA’s changes only apply to those states where EPA administers the program; the 14 states that administer their own programs will have to take legislative or regulatory action to adopt the online refresher course option. n

NAHB moves needle on EPA online lead paint training

Age can play a significant role in what buyers want to see in a potential new

home. This study presents findings not just for the average home buyer, but

also highlights the housing preferences of Baby Boomers and how they com-pare to buyers of other generations.

Housing Preferences of the Boomer Generation: How They Compare to

Other Home Buyers discusses the lat-est data on preferences for home size, central-city versus the suburbs, kitchen, bathroom, and community features, and much more. See more at: http://ebooks.builderbooks.com/product/housing-pref-

erences-boomer-generation.


NEws&INfo

Modest home price and interest rate de-creases resulted in a slight increase in nationwide housing affordability in the

fourth quarter of 2015, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI).

“Affordable home prices, attractive mort-gage rates, and pent-up demand are keeping the housing market on a gradual, upward path,” said NAHB Chairman Ed Brady. “While this bodes well for housing in 2016, builders con-tinue to face a number of challenges, including excessive and costly regulations and a lack of available lots and skilled labor.”

“The signs point to continuing growth in home sales,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “We’ve seen an improvement in afford-ability due to favorable home prices and interest rates. Steady employment and economic growth, along with rising consumer confidence and pent-up demand will also help encourage more buyers to enter the marketplace.”

In all, 63.3 percent of new and existing homes sold between the beginning of October and end of

December were affordable to families earning the U.S. median income of $65,800. This up from the 62.2 percent of homes sold that were affordable to median-income earners in the third quarter.

The national median home price fell from $231,000 in the third quarter to $226,000 in the fourth quarter. Average mortgage rates edged low-er from 4.18 percent to 4.09 percent.

Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio-Pa. was rated the nation’s most affordable major housing market, switching places with Syracuse, N.Y., which fell to the second slot on the list. In Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, 90.1 percent of all new and existing homes sold in last year’s fourth quarter were affordable to families earn-ing the area’s median income of $53,700.

Rounding out the top five affordable major housing markets were Scranton-Wilkes-Barre, Pa.; Toledo, Ohio; and Columbia, S.C.

Meanwhile, Binghamton, N.Y. claimed the title of most affordable small housing market in the fourth quarter of 2015. There, 94.6 percent of homes sold during the fourth quarter were

affordable to families earning the area’s median income of $66,400.

Smaller markets joining Binghamton at the top of the list included Cumberland, Md.-W.Va.; Fair-banks, Alaska; Sandusky, Ohio; and Monroe, Mich.

For the 13th consecutive quarter, San Fran-cisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, Calif. was the nation’s least affordable major housing market. There, just 10.4 percent of homes sold in the fourth quarter were affordable to families earn-ing the area’s median income of $103,400.

Other metros at the bottom of the affordabili-ty chart were located in California. In descending order, they were Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glen-dale; Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine; San Jose-Sunny-vale-Santa Clara; and Santa Rosa-Petaluma.

All five least affordable small housing mar-kets were also in California. At the very bottom of the affordability chart was Santa Cruz-Wat-sonville, Calif., where 16.3 percent of all new and existing homes sold were affordable to families earning the area’s median income of $87,000. Other small markets at the lowest end of the scale included Salinas; Napa, San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles; and Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, respectively.

Please visit nahb.org/hoi for tables, historic data and details. n

Affordability edges up in fourth quarter


Housing recovery still looking up An improving economy and continuing

job creation strengthen markets.

Markets in 117 of the approximately 340 metro areas na-tionwide returned to or exceeded their last normal levels of economic and housing activity in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the NAHB/First American Leading

Markets Index (LMI) released recently. This represents a year-over-year net gain of 52 markets.

The index’s nationwide score inched up to .94, meaning that based on current permit, price and employment data, the nationwide average is run-ning at 94 percent of normal economic and housing activity. Meanwhile, 90 percent of markets have shown an improvement year-over-year.

“Housing markets are strengthening gradually as the economy firms and job creation continues,” said NAHB Chairman Ed Brady. “While some areas are recovering at a faster rate than others, the large majority of metros are moving in the right direction.”

“Among the LMI components, house prices continue to show the most extensive recovery, with 322 markets having returned to or ex-ceeded their last normal levels. Meanwhile, 76 metros have reached or exceeded normal employment activity,” said NAHB Chief Econ-omist David Crowe. “Single-family permits are edging forward, but remain at only 48 percent of normal activity.”

“The number of markets on this quarter’s Leading Markets Index at or above 90 percent has reached 217—almost 65 percent of all markets na-tionwide,” said Kurt Pfotenhauer, vice chairman of First American Title Insurance Company, which co-sponsors the LMI report. “This demon-strates that the breadth of the housing recovery continues to grow.”

Baton Rouge, La., continues to top the list of major metros on the LMI, with a score of 1.52 – or 52 percent better than its last normal market level. Other major metros leading the list include Austin, Texas; Honolulu; Houston; and San Jose, Calif. Rounding out the top 10 are Oklahoma City; Los Angeles; Nashville, Tenn.; Salt Lake City and Charleston, S.C.

Looking at smaller metros, both Midland and Odessa, Texas, have LMI scores of 2.0 or better, meaning that their markets are now at double their strength prior to the recession. Also at the top of the list of smaller metros are Wheeling, W.Va.; Manhattan, Kan.; and Walla Walla, Wash.; respectively.

The LMI identifies those areas that are now approaching and ex-ceeding their previous normal levels of economic and housing activity. Approximately 340 metro areas are scored by taking their average permit, price and employment levels for the past 12 months and dividing each by their annual average over the last period of normal growth. For


single-family permits and home prices, 2000-2003 is used as the last normal period, and for employment, 2007 is the base comparison. The three components are then averaged to provide an overall score for each market; a national score is calculated based on national measures of the three metrics. An index value above one indicates that a market has advanced beyond its previous normal level of economic activity.

Editor’s Note:In calculating the LMI, NAHB utilizes

employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation data from Freddie Mac and single-family housing per-mits from the U.S. Census Bureau. In 2015, the Census Bureau revised the manner in which it obtains monthly counts of MSA single-family permits data. To maintain consistency within the LMI, NAHB excluded certain MSAs and improved comparability with previous years for the remaining areas. The LMI is published quarterly on the fourth working day of the month, unless that day falls on a Friday—in which case, it is released on the following Monday. For historical information and charts, please go to nahb.org/lmi. n


sPIKE REPoRT

Sixteen SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitmentnumbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of January 31, 2016.

Top 20 Big Spikes

Jim Ford 912Virgil Ray 821Bill King 776Mitzi Spann 708Terry Cobb 567Jim Fischer 566John Whitaker 458Jennifer Earnest 345James Carbine 344Kevin Hale 287David Crane 276Tonya Jones 271Trey Lewis 263Reese Smith III 261Steve Moody 219Sonny Shackelford 219Davis Lamb 194Tim Ferguson 175Jackson Downey 174James Franks 168

Life Spikes

Jim McLean 164Louise Stark 163Harry Johnson 146Steve Cates 140C.W. Bartlett 138Tonya Alexander 128Sam Carbine 127Steve Hewlett 119Carmen Butner 108B.J. Hanson 105Dave McGowan 104Johnny Watson 101Julie DuPree 97Jordan Clark 90Duane Vanhook 90Jeff Zeitlin 87Erin Richardson 76Wiggs Thompson 74Jeff Slusher 70John Baugh 68Michael Dillon 67Don Bruce 62Jim Ford, Jr. 62Beth Sturm 59Hill McAlister 57Lori Fisk-Conners 55Joe Morgan 54John Broderick 53Gerald Bucy 53David Hughes 51Al Davis 47Andrew Neuman 46Benny Sullivan 46John Ganschow 45Christina Cunningham 44Bryan Edwards 44Kay Russell 44

Peggy Krebs 40David Lippe 38Andy Wyatt 37Chuck Clarkson 36Frank Miller 36Brad Butler 35Al Hacker 34Ray Edwards 32Derenda Sircy 32Randall Smith 32Dan Strebel 32Steve Wheeley 30Alvin Basel 29Justin Hicks 29Marty Maitland 27John Zelenak 27

Spikes

Don Mahone 22Frank Tyree 17Ashley Crews 13Ricky Scott 11Gina Hewlett 10Ron Schroeder 10Don Alexander 9Keith Porterfield 8McClain Franks 6


1 2 3 Sales & Marketing Council meeting

4 5

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

13 14 15Metro/Nashville Chapter

meeting

16 17 18 19

20 21 Dickson County Chapter

meeting

22 23 24 25 26

27 28 29 30 31 1 2

3 4 5 6 7Sales & Marketing Council meeting

8 9

MARCH CALENdAR

Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

CHAPTERS

CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTERChapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned.Next meeting: to be announced.Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310

DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTERChapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873.The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Monday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at the Ponderosa Restaurant in Dickson.Next meeting: Monday, March 21.Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat.Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 307

MAURY COUNTY CHAPTERMaury County Chapter details are currently being planned.Next meeting: to be announced.Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312

METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTERChapter President - John Whitaker: 615/843-3300.The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the fourth Monday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.Next meeting: Tuesday, March 15.Speaker: DocAir will make an informative presentation. Builders Free pending sponsorshipPrice: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 304

ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTERNext meeting: to be announced.

Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313.

SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTERThe Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library.Next meeting: to be announced.Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 306

WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTERChapter President - BJ Hanson: 615/884-4935.The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.Next meeting: to be announced.Builders Free pending sponsorship.Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP). Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305

WILSON COUNTY CHAPTERThe Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Five Oaks Golf & Country Club in Lebanon.Next meeting: to be announced.Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 309

COUNCILS

GREEN BUILDING COUNCILCouncil President - Erin Richardson: 615/883-8526.The Green Building Council meets on the fourth Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m.Next meeting: to be announced.Topic: to be announced.Price: free for Green Building Council members pending sponsorship; $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o).

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 308

HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCILCouncil President - Ricky Scott.The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m. at varying locations.Next meeting: to be announced..Location: to be announced. Topic: to be announced.Price: free for RMC members with RSVP; $15 for non-members with RSVP ($20 w/o).Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 301

INFILL BUILDERS COUNCILThe Infill Builders meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices until further notice.Next meeting: to be announced.Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 311

MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCILCouncil President - Jody Derrick.The SMC meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.Next meeting: Thursday, March 3.Topic: “Appraisals and the Appraisal Process.”SMC members FREE with RSVP pending sponsorship; non-SMC members $25 w/RSVP, $35 w/o RSVPCouncil RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 302.

CHAPTERs & CouNCILs

The Nail, March, 2016

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