The most recent energy projection from the Danish

Energy Authority

Morten WernerFebruary 6th, 2008

Background• Regularly projection of energy demand,

production and conversion

• The Baseline is used in policy evaluation and monitoring

• Interpertation: ”Business as Usual”

• Alternative scenarios

DEA Model framework

RAMSES EMMA

Macroscenario

Prices

Electricityprices

Technology

Final energy demandin industry, serviceand households

Powergeneration and district heating

Important exogenous

• Energy prices• Macro economic growth• Technology• Policy• Power generation in the other nordic

countries

Fossil fuel prices

• Fossile fuel prices updated according to World Energy outlook 2007

• DKR/USD-rate

• Minor effects on prices measured in DKR on average in 2007

• CO2-price

US$/barrel (2006-prices)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Basis 2007 Basis 2006

Wind power, prices

• Prices 30-50 % increased compared to previous baseline

• Expected efficiency gain lower than previous baseline

Offshore

0

5

10

15

20

2004 2010 2020M

io.

DK

K/

MW

Basis 2006 Basis 2007

Land

02468

10

2004 2010 2020

Mio

. DK

K/ M

W

Basis 2006 Basis 2007

Macro economic growth

• Most recent medium/long term economic projektion from Ministry of Finance

• Higher expected growth rates in medium and long term compared to previous baseline

Output

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025In

dex

2005

=10

0

Basis 2007 Basis 2006

Policy

• Energy savings policy, 2005 • New standards for buildings• Biofuels, 5.75% from 2010• •

Nordic power generation

• Denmark• Offshore wind power (Horns Rev (2009), Rød

Sand II (2011) 2 x 200 MW)• Excisting coal-fired power plants upgraded and

enabling biomass co-firing

• Other nordic countries• Finland: Nuclear power plants (2012 and 2018)• Sweden: Postponed phase out off nuclear

power

Main results

Gross energy demand

• New statistical information

• Macroeconomic growth

• Transport• Less wind (long run)• Increased efficiency,

North Sea

Gross energy consumption, adjusted, PJ

700

750

800

850

900

950

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Basis 2007 Basis 2006

Final energy consumption, PJ

600

620

640

660

680

700

720

740

Basis 2007 Basis 2006

Renewable energy

Renewable energy

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Renewable energy - share of gross energy 2006 2011 2015 2020 2025

Basis 2007 15.6% 18.8% 19.3% 18.4% 17.8%

- excl. biofuels   17.7% 18.2% 17.3% 16.6%

Basis 2006   17.7% 17.9% 20.3% 21.8%

Wind power, production

Wind power

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

TW

h/Y

ea

r

More information

WWW.ENS.DK

• Documentation (in danish)• Tables