The Most Essential and Authoritative Source for Copper ...Ref. Cu Output By Region in Jan-Oct...

Copper & Copper Fabrication Monthly No.216

www.antaike.com 1

Copper & Copper Fabrication Monthly December 2014 No. 216

The Most Essential and Authoritative Source for

Chinese Metals Market

INSIDE THIS ISSUE

Supply-Demand Balance .............................................................. 2

Price Trend ................................................................................... 3

Copper Supply ............................................................................. 4

Copper Supply-Mine........................................................... 4

Copper Supply-Smelting/refining ....................................... 5

Copper Dmand ............................................................................. 7

Copper Semis ...................................................................... 7

Demand indicators .............................................................. 9

Import & Export ........................................................................... 11

Copper Market Outlook ............................................................... 14

News in Brief ............................................................................... 15

Statistics ....................................................................................... 19

Chinese Refined Copper Output by Region in 2014 ........... 19

Chinese Copper Semis Output by Region in 2014 .............. 20

Copper in Concentrate Output ............................................ 21

Chinese Imports and Exports of Cu Products in 2014 ........ 21

Copper Price and Stocks on SHFE and LME ..................... 22

Output of Major Copper-using Products and Investment .... 23

Development and Investment of Chinese Real Estates ....... 23

Copper Scrap Price on Chinese Spot Market in 2014 ......... 23

Quotation of Refined Copper by Producers & Traders ....... 24

China Metal Market Order Form ................................................. 24

Hosted by:

China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association

Published monthly by:

Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd.

Editor:Janey Ding (Ms.)

Research Team:

Wang Jun (Ms.); Yang Changhua (Mr.); Qiao Bo (Mr.);

He Xiaohui (Mr.); Zou Jiancheng (Mr.);Deng Xin (Mr.)

Wang Weiwei (Ms.)

Sales Manager: Xiaofei Yang (Ms.)

Tel: +86-10-62560921

Fax: +86-10-62562931

Website:

http://www.antaike.com, http://www.metalchina.com

Email:

[email protected]; [email protected]

Address: 2nd Floor, 12B Fuxing Road, Haidian District,

Beijing 100814, P. R. China

Disclaimer:

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Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd. makes no warranty of

any kind in regard to the contents and does not accept

responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly, or

indirectly, from the use of this report.

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its employee and may not be transmitted in any form

whatsoever to third party.

©2014 Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd.

This issue was dispatched on Dec. 9, 2014.

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the client and its employees and may not be

transmitted in any form whatsoever to third parties.

©2013 Beijing Antaike Information Development

http://www.antaike.com/

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mailto:[email protected]


2

Supply-Demand Balance

Copper Concentrate

Unit: kt copper metal 2011 2012 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Oct-14

Domestic production 1,248 1,407 1,540 345 392 416 142

Import 1,721 2,114 2,722 703 664 731 249

Supply 2,969 3,521 4,262 1,048 1,056 1,146 391

Demand 3,066 3,336 3,968 980 1,063 1,139 405

S/D balance -97 185 294 68 -7 7 -14

Refined Copper

Unit: kt 2011 2012 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Oct-14

Domestic production 5,185 5,615 6,179 1,551 1,676 1,742 610

Import 2,835 3,393 3,206 1,001 894 709 306

Export 157 269 293 56 70 68 15

Demand 7,330 7,680 8,200 2,000 2,250 2,210 750

S/D balance 533 1,059 892 496 250 173 151

Raw Material Structure

Unit: kt 2011 2012 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Oct-14

Refined copper production 5,185 5,617 6,179 1,551 1,676 1,742 610

From mine 3,371 3,722 4,282 1,131 1,211 1,266 441

From scrap 1,814 1,895 1,897 420 465 476 169

Source: Antaike

In October of 2014, domestic production of copper in concentrate increased by 1.43% against the

previous month, and the consumption increased by 0.75% on a monthly basis. The production was 142kt

in October, the import was 249kt, up by 0.81% against the previous month, and the consumption was

405kt. There was a shortage of 14kt in the market.

The supply surplus of refined copper increased in October, benefiting from the rising import. The

domestic output was 610kt, up by 1.67% on a monthly basis. The consumption was 750kt, up by 1.35%

MoM. The import was 306kt, up by 33.04% over the previous month, and the export was 15kt, down by

25% against the previous month. There was a surplus of 151kt.

The supply of copper concentrates increased in recent months, which helped the refined copper

production to retain basically the same with the previous month, although there was still a shortage of

copper scrap supply. The refined output from scrap in the month was 169kt, and that from copper

concentrate and imported copper blister was 441kt, accounting for 27% and 73% of the total output,

respectively.


www.antaike.com 3

Price Trend

Copper Price on SHFE&LME (Unit:RMB/t)

SHFE 3-M & Cash Month Cu Price (Unit:RMB/t),

Contango

SHFE/LME 3-M Cu Price Ratio

Copper price on LME fluctuated between

US$ 6,600/t and US$ 6,750/t. Due to the mixed

factors from domestic and foreign countries, copper

prices lost its direction. But copper price fell down

by more than 3%, which was dragged down by

strong dollar and worries about the slowing down of

inflation rate in the Eurozone and Japan that was

aroused by the international oil prices falling.

Copper price fell down to the lowest of

US$ 6,321/t.

In November of 2014, LME cash price and

three-month copper price averaged at US$ 6,701/t

and US$ 6,638/t, decreasing by 0.56% and 0.73%

on a yearly basis, and declining by 5.17% and

6.12% on a monthly basis, separately.

From January to November of 2014, LME cash

price and three-month copper price averaged at

US$ 6,899/t and US$6,866t, down by 0.97% and

6.75% on a yearly basis, separately.

In November 2014, SHFE cash price and

three-month copper price averaged at RMB 47,646/t

and RMB 46,986/t, decreasing by 0.60% and 0.87%

on a yearly basis, and declining by 6.56% and

7.52% on a month basis, separately.

Domestic copper price followed the trend on the

LME, with fluctuation range between RMB

47,000/t and RMB 48,000/t. Good support from

interest rate cut by Chinese banks disappeared

quickly. Copper price touched a new low at the end

of November. Copper price fell down to RMB

45,000/t on November 28 with a falling trend.

From January to November of 2014, SHFE cash

price and three-month copper price averaged at

RMB49,167/t and RMB48,593/t, both declining by

7.79% and 8.53% on a yearly basis, separately.

The average copper price on the spot market

quoted by Antaike was RMB 47,959.8yuan/t in the

month, down by 278 yuan/t compared with the past.

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14

SHFE 3-M Cu-L LME 3-M Cu-R

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14

SHFE 3-M Cu-L SHFE Cash Cu-L

Contango-R

6.5

6.6

6.7

6.8

6.9

7.0

7.1

7.2

7.3

7.4

Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14

SHFE/LEM Price Ratio


4

Copper Inventory of SHFE & LME

LME copper inventory experienced small

fluctuation around 160kt. Copper price only had a

limited influence on the change of inventory,

because investors put much more attention to macro

economy.

SHFE copper inventory moved around 90kt.

Buying from downstream market ever increased

when copper price fell, but buyerschanged to be

cautious because of unclear price trend. Together

with new stocking and the adjustment of price ratio

between SHFE and LME, copper inventory saw a

slight increase. News on purchasing and storage of

copper from State Reserve Bureau gave a certain

support to copper price, but need to be verified.

As a whole, current inventory had no guidance

toto the copper price trend.

Copper Supply

Copper Supply-Mine

Mine Capacity & Utilization

Source:Antaike

Copper Concentrate Production (metal

content, kt)

According to Antaike’s statistics, the capacity

utilization rate was 104% and the output of

copper-in-concentrate increased by 1.43% MoM in

October.

According to NBS, the output of

copper-in-concentrate in the first ten months was

1.568Mt, a rise of 6.2% YoY. We believe the real

figure was lower than that, which was estimated to

be 1.30Mt by Antaike. Antaike’s survey results

showed that the figures of domestic

copper-in-concentrate output issued by the NBS was

exaggerated in some regions, especially the figure in

Inner Mongolia. We thought the original figure in

Inner Mongolia was the physical weight in stead of

metal content. So Antaike adjusted the original

figures down.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

1,000


kt

LME Stock SHFE Stock

60

70

80

90

100

110

124

126

128

130

132

134

136

138


Capacity(kt,Cu metal)-L Utilization rate-R


www.antaike.com 5

Source:NBS

Copper Supply-Smelting/refining

Smelting Capacity & Utilization

Source:Antaike

The utilization rate of smelting capacity averaged

at 78.8% in October, almost the same as that in

September.

Refining Capacity & Utilization

Source:Antaike

The Chinese refining capacity utilization in

October reached 72%, slightly higher than the

previous month. Domestic refined copper production

increased slightly in October against the previous

month.

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Feb-11 Oct-11 Jun-12 Feb-13 Oct-13 Jun-14

Cu Conc. output in the month-L MonthlyYoY-R

65

70

75

80

85

90

320

340

360

380

400

420

440



60

65

70

75

80

85

0

200

400

600

800

1000




6

Refined Copper Output

Source: CNIA

Ref. Cu Output By Region in Jan-Oct

Source: CNIA

According to the data from NBS and CNIA,

refined copper output in October was 734kt in

October, up by 14.0% YoY and 2.7% MoM. The

output amounted to 6.42Mt from January to October

and increased by 11.4% on a yearly basis. According

to Antaike’s survey, the output of Chinese 11 copper

cathode producers reached 468.3kt in October,

accounting for more than 70% of Chinese total and

rising by 3.93% against the same period of 2013.

The monthly average operation rate was 100% based

on 11 sample companies in October (which was

benefited from more than 100% capacity utilization

in some sample companies in October), higher than

91.65% in October. Among them, TNMG, JCCL,

JNMC, Daye, Zhongtiaoshan and Xinye Copper Co.,

Ltd. reached their full capacities; the operation rate

of CHALCO Yunnan Copper Co., Ltd and Dongying

Fangyuan Nonferrous Metals Group was more than

80% and the lowest operation rate was only 50.66%.

Near the end of the year, most smelters lifted the

operation rate under the condition of abundant

supply of copper concentrates, which pushed the

production of domestic refined copper higher.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jan Mar May Jul Sept Nov

kt

2012 2013 2014

17%

17%

15% 11%

6%

34%

Jiangxi

Anhui

Shandong

Gansu

Hubei

Others


www.antaike.com 7

Copper Demand

Copper Semis

Copper Semis Production

Cu Semis Output By Region in Jan-Sept

The output of copper semis in October reached

1.51Mt, up by 12.5% YoY and 0.9% MoM. The

output accumulated to 14.36Mt from January to

October,up by 13.5% YoY.

Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Anhui and Guangdong

remain as the top five regions of copper semi

production in recent years. The output in Jiangsu

exceeded that in Jiangxi and ranked No.2.

Benefiting from cheaper labor cost, lower energy

cost and favorable government policy, the copper

fabricating industry enjoys fast development in

Jiangxi and Anhui, where growth rates reached

8.49% and 35.91% separately from January to

October. Copper semis output in Shandong

experienced great growth since 2014, seeing a

growth rate of 42.9% in the first ten months of 2014.

Copper Wire rod Capacity Utilization

Source:Antaike

Antaike did research on Chinese 16 copper rod

producers through field survey and over the phone,

covering Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Tianjin, Shandong,

Guangdong, Anhui, Yunnan, and other regions.

Among them, 16 companies imported 12 continuous

casting lines (12 SCR lines with wirerod capacity of

2.69Mtpa and 8 CONTIROD lines with wirerod

capacity of 1.965Mtpa) and one company imported

La Farg copper scrap processing line from Italy with

capacity of 120ktpa.

Total capacity of 16 copper wirerod producers

reached 4.775Mt, representing 50% of Chinese total.

Based on the survey results, 16 copper producers

produced 323kt copper wirerod in October of 2014,

with capacity utilization rate of 81.2%.

In a breakdown by regions, capacity utilization

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

kt

2012 2013 2014

17%

16%

16% 13%

10%

28%

Zhejiang

Jiangsu

Jiangxi

Anhui

Guangdong

Others

68%

60%

82%

75%

83% 78%

81% 76%

73%

81%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14

Cu Wirerod Capacity Utilization


8

rate in eastern China was 76.1%, 3.3 percentage

points lower than the previous month. Downtream

market saw the following features: first, some

large sized companies held stable supply of raw

materials, whose capacity utilization increased;

second, sales model was changing. The proportion

rate of sales volume to traders was declining as

copper smelters tried to control risks.

Capacity in southern China was 90.3% in

October. The capacity utilization rate in the area

(JCC Guangzhou Zengcheng copper project

included in eastern China, but excluded in the area)

was pushed up by the month on month rise of output

in Tai-I Jiang Corp (Guangzhou) Co., Ltd..

The capacity utilization rate in northern China

was 70%, with 3.9 percentage points lower than that

in August. The output of copper wire rod in the area

began to decrease due to unstable raw materil supply

together with tight cash flow withwith traders.

Copper wirerod producers in the area need to

purchase raw materials from other places.

According to data from China Customs, China

imported 5.75kt copper rod (with the maximum

cross-sectional dimension>= 8 mm) in October. The

import amounted to 65.6kt from January to October,

down by 28.11% YoY. The export accumulated to

14kt from January to October, up by 160% YoY.

Copper Tube Capacity Utilization

Source:Antaike

After entering October, air conditioner

manufacturers had completed signing long term

contracts with copper tube producers. The estimated

stock of national air condtioners were 22 million

units, which means that the destocking of the big

storage was the main job for air conditioner

companies. As a result, order forms decreased by

40% against last year, even more in small sized

copper tube producers.The monthly average

operation rate of Chinese copper tube producers fell

down to 63%.

75% 72%

92% 98% 97% 95% 93%

71% 78%

63%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

Cu Tube Capacity Utilization


www.antaike.com 9

Copper Strip & Plate Capacity Utilization

Source: Antaike

Antaike did research on 10 domestic copper

strips & plates producers, which own 600ktpa of

production capacity, by field trip and over telephone

survey. According to the survey results, these

sampling companies well operated in October, with

total output slightly lower than September. The

output of sampling companies reached 35kt in

October, with comprehensive capacity utilization

rate of 62%.

With regards to the production breakdown by

regions, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate

in southern China actually ranked ahead of other

regions, approaching to 81%. Then it followed by

eastern China, whose comprehensive capacity

utilization closed to 80% in October, with 4

percentage points lower than the previou month. The

comprehensive capacity utilization rate in

northeastern China was 70% and in northern China

only 60%. The comprehensive capacity utilization

rate in central China was 47%.

.

Demand indicators

By End-using Products

Data from NBS shows a sluggish consumption

although it was in a peak consumption season based

on the output of main copper end-using products.

Most products had month on month declines except

autos and transformer. The output of auto,

refrigerator, air conditioner and power cable had

year on year increase in October, although some

products output were not in such case. From January

to October, the output of ice-box, transformer,

communication and electronic cable decreased on

yearly basis. As a whole, the consumption by

end-using sectors had no obvious improvement.

60% 58%

67%

63%

68% 70%

68%

63% 65%

62%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Ap

r-1

4

May

-14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

Cu Strip&Plate Capacity Utilization

-40

-20

0

20

40

Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14

YoY Growth Rate of Auto

YoY Growth Rate of Power Equipments

YoY Growth Rate of AC Motor


10

Investment in Chinese Electric Power

Industry

Source: CEC

According to the statistics released on the website

of China Electricity Council (CEC), Chinese power

consumption from January to October amounted to

4,548.4 TWh, up by 3.8% on a yearly basis, 3.6

percentage points lower than the same period of

2013.

The newly added power generation capacity was

57.71 Mln Kw in the first ten months, and decreased

by 5.24 Mln Kw against the same period of 2013.

The hydro power capacity, thermal power capacity,

nuclear power capacity, wind power capacity and

solar power capacity is 16.98 Mln Kw, 28.11 Mln

Kw, 3.29 Mln kw, 7.36 Mln Kw and 1.96 Mln Kw,

respectively.

Substation capacity of the newly-added power

grid construction with more than 220 KV reached

186.82 Mln KVA and length of Ac line was 26,468

km, increasing by 15.25 Mln KVA and decreasing

by 2,993 km compared with the same period of

2013.

Chinese Property Industry

Chinese Real Estate Investment Completed

Investment in Chinese property industry was

7,722 billion yuan from January to October of 2014,

nominally up by 15.9% YoY, 0.2 percentage points

lower than that from January to September of the

year. Of that, investment in residential houses was

5,246.4 billion yuan, up by 11.1% YoY,

0.2percentage points lower than that in the first nine

months of the year, accounting for 67.9% of the total

investment in real estate.

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14

YoY Growth Rate of Household refrigerator

YoY Growth Rate of Household Ice-box

YoY Growth Rate of Air conditioner

YoY Growth Rate of power generation

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

0

100

200

300

400

Jan-Feb Jan-Apr Jan-Jun Jan-Aug Jan-Oct

in Power Source (bln RMB)-L

in Power Grid (bln RMB)-L

YoY Growth Rate of the whole Investment-R

-20

0

20

40

60

Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14

YoY Growth of Floor Space of Commercial houses

Completed

YoY Growth of Sales Area of Commercial Houses


www.antaike.com 11

Source: NBS

Govt Economic Data

Manufacturing PMI Readings

Source: NBS, CFLP

The official manufacturing purchasing manager's

index (PMI) slipped to 50.3 in November from 50.8

in October, but remained above the 50-point mark

that separates growth from contraction on a monthly

basis, according to data released by the National

Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and China Federation of

Logistics and Purchasing.

Another PMI reading from the HSBC, also

released on Monday, stood at 50.0 in November

after a 50.4 print in October.

Although the November PMI fell slightly, it

remained above the boom-bust line, suggesting the

manufacturing sector was generally expanding.

Import & Export

Copper Concentrate

China imported 956kt copper concentrates in

October, seeing a year on year rise of 1.27% and

month on month decline of 25.8%. The

accumulative import from January to October of

2014 reached 9.535Mt, up by 17.4% YoY. The great

month on month drop was considered normal

considering the National Day Holiday and a large

number of import in September from Mongolia.

Copper concentrates were imported by Anhui,

Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Jiangxi etc. Anhui

imported 2.17Mt in the first ten months, accounting

for 23% of the total and ranked the No. 1 importing

region, followed by Shandong and Inner Mongolia,

which accounted for 17% and 12% of the national

10

15

20

25

30

Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14

YoY Growth

50

50

50

51

51

51

51

51

52

52


(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


Net Import of Cu Conc. (physical weight,kt)-L

YoY Growth rate-R


12

Cu Conc. Import by Destinations in Jan-Oct

total import, separately.

The suppliers of copper concentrate are Chile,

Peru and Mongolia, which contributed 2.30Mt,

1.67Mt and 1.06Mt to Chinas’ copper importin the

first ten months, accounting for 24%, 17% and 11%

of the total, respectively.

Copper Blister

Cu Blister Import by Destinations in Jan- Oct

Source: China Customs

Data from China Customs shows that the import

of copper blister and anode reached 39.14kt in

October, down by 11% on a monthly basis and

down by 30% over the same period of 2013. The

import amounted to 491kt from January to October,

down by 4.26% YoY.

Copper blister was imported by Jiangxi,

Shandong and other regions where the major copper

smelters or refineries are located. Jiangxi imported

140kt in the first ten months, accounting for 29% of

the total and ranked the No. 1 importing region,

followed by Shandong and Shanghai, which

accounted for 23% and 10% of the country’s total

respectively.

The suppliers of copper blister are still Zambia,

Chile and DRC, which contributed 199kt, 190kt and

43kt to China’s copper blister import in the first ten

months, accounting for 41%, 38% an 9% of the

total, respectively.

23%

17%

12% 8%

7%

33%

Anhui

Shandong

Inner Mongolia

Jiangxi

Gansu

Others

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00


Net Import of Cu Blister (physical weight,kt)-L

YoY Growth rate-R

29%

23% 10%

6%

5%

27%

Jiangxi

Shandong

Shanghai

Hubei

Guangxi

Others


www.antaike.com 13

Copper Scrap

Cu Scrap Import by Destinations in Jan- Oct


The import of copper scrap was 332kt in October,

down by 7.0% YoY and down by 15.2% MoM. The

import amounted to 3.187Mt from January to

October, down by 10.2% YoY. Current supply of

copper scrap was still tight. Besides, copper price

was firm and downstream demand was weak. the

big month on month decline was not a surprise.

Copper scrap was imported by Guangdong,

Zhejiang, Tianjin, and Shandong etc.. Guangdong

imported 1.10Mt in the first ten months, accounting

for 34% of the total and ranked the No. 1 importing

region, followed by Zhejiang and Tianjin, which

accounted for 31% and 11% of the national total,

separately.

The suppliers of copper scrap are U.S, Hong

Kong and Australia, which contributed 660kt, 465kt

and 343kt to China’s total scrap copper import in

the first ten months, accounting for 21%, 15% an

11% of the total, respectively.

Refined Copper

According to data from China Customs, the

import of refined copper was 306kt in October and

experienced a year on year rise of 4.5% and month

on month rise of 5.9%. The import amounted to

2.954Mt from January to October, with a year on

year growth of 15.2%. in a breakdown by trading

method, import in the general trade was 174kt,

which increased by 34.9% on a monthly basis and

declined by 2.3% YoY. Imported refined copper in

entrepot trade through warehouses in bonded zones

was 89kt, down by 25% YoY.

The copper export was 15kt in October and rose

by 1.9% YoY or dropped by 29.2% MoM. The

accumulative export was 220kt from January to

October, down by 10.6% YoY. The transfer

frequency and volume to warehouses in the LME

reduced. With the price arbitrage between SHFE

and LME being repaired, the export was expected

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

0

100

200

300

400

500


Net Import of Cu Scrap (physical weight,kt)-L

YoY Growth rate Import-R

35%

31%

11%

9%

4% 10%

Guangdong

Zhejiang

Tianjin

Shandong

Guangxi

Others

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan-14 Mar-14 14-May Jul-14 Sep-14

Net Import of Ref. Cu (physical weight,kt)-R

YoY Growth rate


14

Cu Ref. Import by Destinations in Jan- Oct


to be stable.

Refined copper was imported by Shanghai,

Shandong, Guangdong and etc.. Shanghai, where

SHFE was located, imported 1.43Mt in the first ten

months, accounting for 49% of the total and ranked

the No. 1 importing region, followed by Shandong

and Guangdong, which accounted for 18% and 10%

of the national total respectively.

The suppliers of refined copper are Chile, India

and Australia, which contributed 1.02Mt, 275kt and

257kt to China’s refined copper import in the first

ten months, accounting for 34%, 9% an 9% of the

total, respectively.

Copper Market Outlook

Domestic refined copper production was expected to be influenced by annual overhaul with the coming of the

year end, with slight decrease of the whole output but still at a high level. The consumption will basically

stable in November, with a good expectation but not worth much. The supply will be higher than the demand,

still with a big surplus.

The Supply/Demand Balance for Refined Copper, unit: kt

Nov. 2014

Production 630

Net import 270

Supply 900

Consumption 750

S/D balance 150

Source: CNIA, China’s Customs, Antaike;

49%

17%

11%

10%

5% 8% Shanghai

Shandong

Guangdong

Zhejiang

Jiangsu

Others


www.antaike.com 15

News in Brief

Zijinshan Copper Mine

SX-EW Plant produces

150kt SX-EW copper

Zijinshan Copper Mine SX-EW Plant produced 15,044.92 tonnes of

SX-EW copper, which broke through 150kt for the first time and increased

by 32.48% against the same period of 2013. Zijinshan Copper Mine

SX-EW Plant achieved great economic benefits from the treatment of

copper-bearing acid drainage.

Yilong Group to build

30ktpa copper semis

project

Henan Yilong Group signed cooperation agreement with Chinalco

Shanghai Copper and China Nonferrous Metals Processing Technology

Co., Ltd, in order to build 30ktpa copper and alloy tube, rod, wire and rod

project mainly used in electronic power, thermal power, petrochemical

industry, water desalination, shipbuilding, transportation and air

conditioning etc. industries.

Luoyang Longji Copper Science and Technology Ltd. will be jointly

built for the project in Yichuan County, Luoyang City of Henan Province.

JCCL's net profit down

by 5.89% YoY

Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. (JCCL or 600362. SH) issued its financial

results for the first nine months of 2014. The report indicates that operating

revenue increased by 11.74% during the reporting period against the same

period of 2013. Net profit reached 2.3 bln yuan, down by 5.89% YoY.

JCC, as parent company of JCCL, is located in Guixi City, Jiangxi

Province. JCC produced 1.12Mt copper cathode and 830kt copper semis in

2013.

JV gets the bidding

qualification for railway

products

Ganzhou Jiangwu La Farga high-speed Railway Copper Materials Co.,

Ltd. (short for JV) ‘s railway copper alloy products got the Ascertainment

Certificate from China Railway Corporation and related relevant

departments, which means the company will be qualified to supply whole

series of railway products to China Railway Corporation and related

relevant departments.

The Company is located in the Econ & Tech Development Zone of

Ganzhou City in Jiangxi Province, China. The Company is jointly invested

with a total investment of USD 15 million and registered capital of USD

7.6 million, by La Farga Group(Spain), Jiangxi Rare Earth & Rear Metals

Tungsten Group and Beijing Prosoar Company. The major products are

high-speed railway use copper, copper alloy and other high-tech materials.


16

Now the capacity of the JV is 20kt per year for the railway catenary

(contact wire, messenger wire, and dropper).

Minmetals: Chinese

copper import in the

upcoming years will

decrease gradually

According to Mr. Gu Liangmin, General Manager of trading business

unit of Minmetals Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd, who delivered a speech in

Metal Bulletin Shanghai Copper Forum on Nov 20th 2014, China will

gradually reduced its import of refined copper in the coming years due to

the gradual growth of domestic refined copper output and the decrease of

demand for financing copper. He indicated that it is quite difficult for the

copper financing activities to recover to the level before Qingdao Port bank

loan scandal. He also said Chinese nonferrous metals industry is

experiencing a fast capacity elimination process as Chinese local

government will not pursue the economic expansion as the only target.

Hefei Customs’s

Director Visits Tongling

Nonferrous to further

improve trading facility

Mr. Xiaoli, Director of Hefei Cutoms of Anhui Province and companies

visited Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Holding Company Ltd.

(Tongling Nonferrous). Mutual parties exchanged ideas on the enterprise’s

production, import and export, processing trade etc.

Delegates from Tongling Nonferrous introduced that Tongling

Nonferrous will secure the annual production target by every means and

has kept the import and export value of the Group Company grow.

Mr. Xiao introduced that Hefei Customs will deep the building of

special customs, upgrade its service concept and innovate its service

content in order to contribute to the local economy.

As the Yangtze River Economic Zone Customs transaction integration

reform will be put into practice, Hefei Customs will actively take part in

this reform. Tongling Nonferrous will enjoy the improvement of customs

clearing efficiency and more convenient trading facility in an open and just

import and export environment.

Tongling Nonferrous to

deepen reform in blend

ownership of the

company

According to a source who is familiar with Anhui Tongling Nonferrous

Metals Co., Ltd. (Tongling Nonferrous or the Company, 000630.SZ), the

Company will deepen its reform in the blend ownership of the Company.

The Company’s majority shareholder, Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group

Holding Company Limited (the Group) is considering introducing strategic

investors to reduce the percentages of the state-owned shareholding in the

Company. Currently the Group is keeping contact with related enterprises

including enterprises in Tongling City and enterprises in other industries.

But up to now there is no final decision being made.

First lead-free copper

semis project settles

down in Xinjiang

The project of 190ktpa lead-free copper series products was formally

settled down in Fukang Industrial Park, which was the first lead-free

copper processing project in Xinjiang. The project, with total investment of

RMB 120 million, was jointly invested by Xinjiang Taixin New Materials


www.antaike.com 17

Co., Ltd. and Xinjiang Wuxin Copper Co., Ltd.. The project includes

120ktpa lead-free brass casting billet line, 6kt lead-free brass bar line and

1ktpa lead-free brass wire line, with estimated sales income of RMB 1

billion after completion.

Taiyuan Chunlei

Copper's C19210

copper strip production

technology passes

evaluation

Taiyuan Jinxi Chunlei Copper Co., Ltd (Taiyuan Chunlei Copper) ’s

C19210 copper strip production technology passed evaluation by experts.

C19210 strip series have stable product performance, high precision, good

plate shape, and low surface residual stress, which can meet domestic

demand and replace the imported similar products.

Taiyuan Jinxi Chunlei Copper Co., Ltd was invested in 2010 as a project

of 50ktpa high precision copper strip by Jiangxi Copper for a purpose of

achieving industrial upgrading, which was officially put into operation in

October 2012. The company’s products are widely used in new areas and

high-tech field, such as electronics, electronic power, communication,

transportation, environment protection and green sources. Jinxi Copper

Company has two copper processing companies, which are Shanxi Chunlei

Copper Co., Ltd with 50ktpa copper strip capacity and Taiyuan Jinxi

Chunlei Copper Co., Ltd with 50ktpa high precision copper strip capacity.

Minmetals signs a

US$600 million term

loan with 12 foreign

banks

China Minmetals Corporation hold US$600 million term loan facility

signing ceremony on November 26, 2014, with12 foreign banks. China

Minmetals Corporation is an international metals and mining corporation

committed to providing high-quality services globally. It primarily engages

in exploration, mining, smelting, processing and trading for metals and

minerals, and is also engaged in finance, real estate, and mining and

metallurgic technology, with business scope covering 28 nations and

regions in the world.

Longji Copper's 30ktpa

copper semis project

settles down in Yichuan

County

Luoyang Longji Copper Co., Ltd (Longji Copper)’s 30ktpa copper and

copper alloy wirerod project settled down in Yichuan County, Luoyang

City of Henan Province. The project, with total investment of RMB 404.56

million, mainly supply copper tube, wirerod and etc, products to power

plants and for the usage of petroleum, ships and cars. Luoyang Longji

Copper Co., Ltd is jointly established by Henan Yilong Science &

Technology Industrial Co. Ltd, Chinalco Shanghai Copper Co. Ltd and

Luoyang Research and Design Institute for Non-ferrous Metals Processing.

Yintan's copper cathode

output reaches 865kt in

Jan-Oct

The income of copper industry related main business reached RMB 248

billion in Yingtan City of Jiangxi Province from January to October. The

output of copper cathode was 865kt and copper semis amounted to 1.90Mt

from January to October.

Yingtan produced 1.06Mt copper cathode and 2.046Mt copper semis in

2013, which accounted for 86% and 60% of that in Jiangxi, and 15% and


18

18% of Chinese total. The total capacity of copper cathode in Jiangxi has

exceeded 1.20Mt in 2013.

Luoyang Copper

develops ultra-thin and

ultra-wide copper plate

Chinalco Luoyang Copper Co., Ltd. (Luoyang Copper) developed

copper plate at the size of 0.2mm*1,000mm and has started mass

production.

Luoyang Copper, acquired by Chinalco in 2005, has 180ktpy capacity of

copper strips & plates. Newly-built high precision electronic copper strip

capacity is 100ktpa. Its annual capacity of nonferrous metals fabrication

products is 240ktpa.

Nonferrous metal

industry in Jiangxi sees

a further loss in

Jan-Aug

According to the Commission of Industry and Information Technology

of Jiangxi Province, there are 693 above–scale companies (with annual

revenue above 5 million yuan) engaging in nonferrous metals, with 76

companies facing growing losses from January to August of 2014. The

losses were expanded by 8.6% YoY. Among them, 253 companies engage

in copper, with 19 companies suffering losses.

Copper & alloy project

is settled down in Baoji

The Northwest Machine Co. Ltd planned to build one copper and copper

alloy project in Baoji City of Shaanxi Province. The project, with total

investment of RMB 1 billion, was jointly invested by Northwest Machine

Co. Ltd and Shanghai Base Trading Co., Ltd. The project was proposed to

produce LED car light, Pv cable, high temperature superconducting

materials and etc. First stage of the project is expected to produce 40kt

copper semis, 15kt oxygen-free copper after completion.

The Northwest Machine Co., Ltd. is transformed from the Northwest

Machine Factory. It is the leading enterprise of research and manufacture

electronic special equipment. It was found in 1940 and located in Xi’an

High-tech Development Area.

Investment in

nonferrous metal

industry slows down

Investment in the fixed asset of nonferrous metal industry increased by

5.3% YoY from January to August of 2014, but with 14.4 percentage

points lower than the same period of previous year and with 11.2

percentage points lower than the growth of national investment in fixed

assets from January to August of 2014. Among them, the growth rates of

investment in mining and smelting projects continued to fall, while

investment in rolling and processing projects increased continuously. But

the growth rate for the period from January to August of 2014 experienced

a decrease against the same period of 2013. Breakdown by investment

units, proportion of private investment reached 84.1%. The overall

investment structure for the nonferrous metal industry was further

optimized.


www.antaike.com 19

Profit of nonferrous

metal industry

improved

The overall profit level was improved in nonferrous metal industry, but

there were great difference between different metals. Aluminium smelters

suffered the biggest loss. Enterprises engaging in copper, nickel and cobalt,

tin, magnesium, antimony, silver, tungsten and molybdenum achieved

profit growth.

Factors behind the improved profit level for the whole nonferrous metal

industry are as the follows: first, a series of “mini stimulus” and “steady

growth” policies issued by Chinese government had worked; second,

prices of most nonferrous metals rose on a monthly basis in July and

August. Electricity costs for primary aluminum fell in some regions. The

treatment charges of imported copper concentrates recovered. Private

enterprises pushed up the whole industrial profit. Besides, management

level improved while the growth of administration cost fell back

The first 14 batches of

import quota of used

motors reach 7.04Mt in

2014

According to the National Center of Solid Waste Management, the

Ministry of Environmental Protection, P.R.C., the 14th batch of imported

used motors under the approved quota mainly for recycling copper

(Customs SN: 7404000010) was 150.6kt in 2014. By now, the first 14

batches of approved import quota of used motors mainly for recycling

copper accumulatively reached 7.04Mt in 2014.

There are 12 authorized customs responsible for the clearance of these

batches of used motors mainly for recycling copper. Of them, import

volume in Xingang, is the largest, with 72.8kt.

The first 14 batches of

approved import quota

of copper scrap reach

3.81Mt in 2014

According to the National Center of Solid Waste Management, Ministry

of Environmental Protection, PRC, the14th batch of import copper waste

and scrap (Customs SN: 7404000090) under the approved quota was

37.3kt. By now, the first 13 batches of approved import quota of copper

scraps accumulatively reached 3.81Mt in 2014.

There are 6 authorized customs responsible for the clearance of these

batches of imported copper waste and scrap. Of them, import volume in

Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, is the largest, with 11kt.

Statistics

Chinese Refined Copper Output by Region in Jan-Oct 2014

Unit: ton 2011 2012 2013 Oct.14 Jan-Oct YoY Jan-Oct %

Chinese total 5,196,900 5,823,533 6,838,752 732,746 6,420,024 11.40

Tianjin 22,203 10,225 6,043 5,343 49,972 50.84

Hebei 123,657 135,785 152,589 10,686 116,067 -8.75

Shanxi 87,785 98,134 88,564 16,509 111,148 62.63


20

Unit: ton 2011 2012 2013 Oct.14 Jan-Oct YoY Jan-Oct %

Inner Mongolia 176,305 187,825 245,436 28,381 230,821 17.98

Liaoning 115,837 61,565 55,176 1,114 15,746 -70.91

Heilongjiang 2,925

1,471 105.00 705.00 -49.82

Shanghai 113,781 92,208 87,952 8,219 78,325 10.76

Jiangsu 324,165 331,589 296,862 24,926 249,612 -0.93

Zhejiang 311,492 293,661 262,167 24,193 243,240 15.51

Anhui 618,529 605,849 1,211,366 111,293 1,069,341 10.14

Fujian 1,935 89,752 211,696 19,992 187,120 2.35

Jiangxi 975,156 1,163,723 1,202,456 114,604 1,120,769 6.94

Shandong 754,587 910,493 826,672 96,285 938,646 15.26

Henan 112,757 158,010 171,154 25,990 178,078 32.43

Hubei 352,034 368,173 502,465 50,808 410,537 3.77

Hunan 15,090 21,583 85,127 1,528 19,319 -20.66

Guangdong 36,913 96,780 125,409 10,881 100,316 -1.43

Guangxi

377 23,953 102,188

Chongqing 10,390 8,729 38

Sichuan 4,108 10,944 8,477 1,567 18,702 165.84

Guizhou

Yunnan 390,259 449,184 480,168 46,748 413,603 5.81

Shaanxi 4,015 944 812 90 883 44.05

Gansu 625,406 708,579 779,565 92,987 702,010 8.04

Qinghai

291 358 29 383 53.01

Ningxia

Xinjiang 16,721 19,507 36,233 16,514 62,492 114.34

Jilin 850

Tibet

120

Source: CNIA

Chinese Copper Semis Output by Region in October 2014

Unit: ton 2011 2012 2013 Oct.14 Jan- Oct YoY Jan- Oct %

Chinese total 10,281,453 11,539,596 14,987,033 1,508,032 14,359,230 13.46

Beijing 14,809 9,856 8,050 761 6,656 9.55

Tianjin 128,429 144,783 248,362 40,028 684,626 17.28

Hebei 73,019 49,290 268,395 9,564 64,614 -68.80

Shanxi 62,516 32,000 68,000

Inner Mongolia 264,427 460,878 385,339 10,699 110,174 71.24

Liaoning 149,981 193,544 215,330 12,048 200,351 5.61

Jilin 879

Heilongjiang

2,537

583 -74.89

Shanghai 379,300 267,205 295,651 22,948 256,341 2.43

Jiangsu 1,556,153 1,745,264 2,214,008 255,099 2,258,951 7.12


www.antaike.com 21

Unit: ton 2011 2012 2013 Oct.14 Jan- Oct YoY Jan- Oct %

Zhejiang 1,890,659 2,147,524 2,497,106 257,729 2,417,004 16.95

Anhui 1,260,028 1,428,091 1,729,518 218,958 1,961,488 35.91

Fujian 98,859 196,347 226,233 13,068 159,801 -11.48

Jiangxi 1,564,687 2,088,921 2,641,012 272,163 2,291,407 8.49

Shandong 286,765 354,686 596,142 70,589 710,043 42.89

Henan 416,927 442,717 578,464 51,757 494,086 7.60

Hubei 106,468 211,310 246,592 7,935 161,905 -26.00

Hunan 216,979 307,060 451,438 18,284 296,563 -11.49

Guangdong 1,379,758 1,025,250 1,549,971 177,424 1,509,425 16.55

Guangxi 49,090 60,943 86,261 6,187 53,045 2.56

Chongqing 76,263 116,098 129,761 11,880 138,660 32.47

Sichuan 91,971 28,009 44,348 4,882 48,965 32.51

Guizhou

1,614 0 4,837 265.55

Yunnan 19,219 72,644 166,922 18,832 177,913 28.69

Shaanxi 11,857 11,543 9,792 1,390 10,932 19.22

Gansu 135,300 45,266 208,091 15,736 222,012 26.30

Qinghai 44,311 98,555 114,799 9,155 111,076 -0.04

Ningxia

360 156 1,324 278.42

Xinjiang 2,797 1,811 2,939 759 6,449 4.25

Note: 1. Figures are provided by CNIA.

Copper in Concentrate Output

Unit: kt in metal content YTD YTD YoY

2011 1,298 14.7

2012 1,624 17.3

2013 1,773 6.3

14-Feb 239 12.8

14-Mar 418 13.6

14-Apr 571 10.4

14-May 837 6.1

14-Jun 881 8.9

14-Jul 1,046 7.6

14-Aug 1,215 5.7

14-Sept 1,398 6.3

14-Oct 1,568 6.2

Chinese Imports and Exports of Cu Products in October 2014

Commodity(Unit: ton) Code/Category Qty in Oct 2014 Qty in Jan-Oct 2014 YoY Jan-Oct %

Import

Refined Cu 7403.1111-7403.1900 305,772 2,954,403 15.20

Cu ores and conc. 956,312 9,534,511 17.42


22

Commodity(Unit: ton) Code/Category Qty in Oct 2014 Qty in Jan-Oct 2014 YoY Jan-Oct %

Cu scraps 331,943 3,186,821 -10.19

Copper blister/anode 39,139 490,578 -4.26

Cu alloy 3,635 39,410 -18.32

Cu semis 7406.1010-7412.2090 48,329 503,202 -6.78

Powder 216 2,512 14.84

Bar, rod, section 5,826 60,634 5.33

Wire 11,490 123,962 -16.95

Sheet & strip 11,282 106,006 1.05

Foil 18,221 195,444 -7.26

Tube 1,295 14,644 -3.16

Other products 7413.0000-7419.9999 2,215 24,096 -9.40

Export

Refined Cu 7403.1111-7403.1900 14,875 219,530 -10.55

Cu scraps 24 612 -47.65

Cu alloy 8 193 35.58

Cu semis 7406.1010-7412.2090 39,367 426,828 4.74

Powder 281 3,164 6.76

Bar, rod, section 753 6,680 1.63

Wire 3,058 27,408 44.94

Sheet & strip 2,552 26,511 19.48

Foil 12,532 134,269 -6.41

Tube 20,191 228,796 7.21

Other products 7413.0000-7419.9999 5,252 54,784 23.92

Note: 1. Figures are provided by China Customs.

2. All Imports/exports of commodity are in physical weight.

Copper Price and Inventories of SHFE and LME

Cu Contract 2011 2012 2013 14-Sep 14-Oct 14-Nov

SHFE

(yuan/t)

Cash Month

Average 66,052 57,348 51,448 49,188 47,935 47,646

High 75,400 63,880 52,600 51,490 49,000 48,520

Low 51,000 53,430 50,240 48,210 47,170 46,760

3-Month

Average 65,792 57,318 51,404 48,519 47,399 46,986

High 76,290 63,880 52,770 50,780 48,530 47,660

Low 50,760 52,380 50,000 47,290 46,310 45,990

Cu Stocks (kt) 93 207 126 86.3 95.8 88.3

LME(US$/t)

3-Month

Average 8,827 7,946 7,196 6,841 6,687 6,638

High 10,190 8,711 7,416 7,052 6,836 6,773

Low 6,635 7,280 6,938 6,650 6,650 6,342

Cash Month Average 8,823 7,949 7,203 6,872 6,552 6,701

Cu Stocks (kt) 371 371 366 152.6 162.6 164.3


www.antaike.com 23

Output of Major Copper-using Products and Investment in Power industry

Product Unit 2012 2013 2014

Annual Annual YoY％ Jan-Oct YoY％

Auto Mln 20.6 23.9 18.4 20.7 9.0

Power equipments Mln kw 136.2 127.4 -4.8 125.3 10.5

AC motor Mln kw 256.9 279.1 6.9 243.3 5.9

Household refrigerator Mln units 84.3 93.4 10.6 80.3 0.8

Household ice-box Mln units 19.1 20.8 9.4 15.4 -3.9

Air conditioner Mln units 132.8 143.3 11.6 134.0 13.3

Transformer Mln KVA 1,431.30 1,523.20 6.6 1,387.0 -33.6

Telecommunication cable Mln double km 46.2 43.3 -7 40.0 -3.6

Power cable Mln Km 40 41.9 4.8 46.0 26.9

Power Generation Bln Kwh 4,818.80 5,245.10 7.6 4,523.4 4.2

Power investment **

Power source Bln yuan 377.2 371.7 -1.5 245.7 -7.6

Power grid Bln yuan 369.3 389.4 5.4 295.7 0.03

Total investment Bln yuan 746.5 761.1 2 541.4 -3.6

Sources: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS); copper semis from CNIA; power investment from China Electricity Council and National

Energy Administration.

Development and Investment of Chinese Housing Sector

2011 2012 2013 Jan-Oct 2014

Floor Space Started (mln sq.m.) 1,901 1,773 2,012 1,476

Floor Space Completed (mln sq.m.) 892 994 1,014 639

Sales area of Commercial Houses (mln sq.m.) 1,099 1,113 1,306 885

Investment Completed (bln yuan) 6,174 7,180 8,601 7,722

Copper Scrap Price on Chinese Spot Market in November 2014

Tax excluded Unit:yuan/t High Average low

#1 Cu 97% 43,650 43,405 42,950

#2 Cu 94~95% 41,250 41,005 40,550

Used transformer (Cu 94~95%) 40,850 40,805 40,350

Brass (Cu 59~60%) 30,450 30,230 29,950

Used motor (Cu 8%) 5.050 5,025 4,950

Notes: 1.the data is reported by Guangzhou Nanhai Nonferrous Metals Spot Market (Guangzhou), located in Guangdong Province, South China.


24

Quotation of Refined Copper by Producers & Traders

Company( Unite:

RMB per ton) Early Oct. Mid Oct. Late Oct. Early Nov. Mid Nov. Late Nov.

North China Trading

(Tianjin) Company 48,800 48,000 48,900 48,700 48,300 47,200

Zhongtiaoshan

Nonferrous Metals

Company

49,500 49,000 49,000 49,000 49,000 48,700

Guangdong Nanchu

Warehousing

Management

Company

48200-48400 47550-47750 48150-48350 47900-48100 47900-48100 46900-47100

Shuikoushan

Nonerrous Metals

Group

49,000 47,800 48,500 48,500 48,000 47,100

Chendu Smelting

Company 48,515 47,700 48,420 48,090 48,040 47,040

Daye Nonferrous

Metals Company 48600-48800 48600-48800 48200-48400 48000-48300 47900-48000 47600-47900

Baiyin Nonferrous

Metals Company 48200-48400 47600-47800 48200-48400 48300-48500 47900-48100 46900-47100

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The Most Essential and Authoritative Source for Copper ...Ref. Cu Output By Region in Jan-Oct...

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