The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Industry of the Republic of Moldova

Assessment of Drought related damages in Assessment of Drought related damages in

the Republic of Moldovathe Republic of Moldova

4 September 20124 September 2012

The Agriculture Sector of MoldovaThe Agriculture Sector of Moldova

• About 84% of agricultural land is privatized (1,692,000 ha) and owned by:

- 32,8 % 391 646 Individual farmers (555,000 ha), and - 50,2 % 4017 agricultural corporative units, (CAP, SA and SRL - 849,800 ha)

1 http://www.indexmundi.com/moldova/economy_profile.html

2 is about 2, 498 th.ha

• Agriculture production/processing generates 50% of the export revenues

• Agriculture contributes 16,2% of the GDP1

• Agriculture land accounts for 73,8%2 of the total land area of the country

• Population: 3.5 million; 32 Rayon or districts, 5 Municipalities and 60 cities; 917 Local Authorities - Primarias (mayors)

• Agriculture employees about 30% population

Agriculture Land StructureAgriculture Land Structure

• Average plot size after privatization was about 1,65 hectare, including: - 86% - under the crop cultivation (1,42 ha) - 14% - vineyards and fruit garden (0,22 ha)

•Arable land 72,6%•Pastures 14% •Vineyards 6%•Orchards 5,3%

Crop ProductionCrop Production

• Cultivated area accounts about 1,483,000 ha. Cereals accounts for 60,6%

Implementation of the food safety reform Restructure and modernise the wine sector Support the development of a modern market infrastructure Implementation of conservative agriculture (No-Till) Support the development of milk and meat production sector Support development of renewable energy production from

agricultural raw materials Reorganisation of the existing education and research resources. Reorganization of the agricultural subsidy system, aimed at

modernizing and concentration of production Implementation of basic information systems to support the

functioning of the food chain Support in development of the High Value Agricultural Sector Revitalizing the irrigation systems and extend the areas of irrigated

land

The 2012 DroughtThe 2012 Drought The State Hydro-Meteo Service (SHS) reported temperatures in June-July that were 3.7-5.1 Co higher than annual averages and the precipitation in the same period was only 15-60 %of the multiannual average, with soil temperatures reaching record heights.

The number of days with max. air temperature higher than +30 degrees and higher for summer period was 39-62 days (the norm being 8-27 days)

The 2012 DroughtThe 2012 Drought

Average monthly air temperature (°C) in 1946/2011 and 2012 Source: State Hydro-meteorological Service

Precipitation quantity (mm)

in 2007 and 2012 Source: State Hydro-meteorological Service

Drought is a production constraint when precipitation is out of the normal average parameters.

On average, Moldova experiences a drought once every five years in the north and once every three years in the southern and central districts.

The 2012 DroughtThe 2012 Drought

Sept ’11 – July 12 rainfall 30-50% of multiannual average In certain (southern & central areas) 20% the of multiannual average rainfall Peak temperatures 3-5% higher the multiannual average Soil moisture 1/3 of the multiannual average

The surface water flow reduced by 30-50 % compared to the multiannual average, in substantial catchments areas (Nistru and Prut rivers) and by 20-40 % in smaller catchments areas and rivers.

Transnistra

Moderatly affected

Pop: 580,000

Impact of the 2012 DroughtImpact of the 2012 Drought

Geographical distribution of the effects of the 2012 drought

Strongly affected

Very affected

Severely affected

Autonomous district 4 rayon

During June and July 2012 the hydrothermal coefficient was 0.1-0.5 across most of the country.

Values over 0.7 were recorded in several districts.

Impact of the 2012 Drought – Plant productionImpact of the 2012 Drought – Plant production

1. Crop ProductionThe impact of the drought on crop production is moderate at national level.

• North – moderatly affected• Centre – very affected • South - strongly and severly affected (Taraclia, UTA Gagauzia, Basarabesca Cahul

and Cantemir etc.),

Severely affected southern areas accounts for 11.7% of the total population (420,000 residents) and 15.4% (5,217 km2) of the total territory of Moldova.

Impact of the 2012 Drought - YIELDSImpact of the 2012 Drought - YIELDS

Winter wheat average yield (t/ha) in 2012 compared to the 2009-2011average.

MAFI - National wheat yield decline in average - 25%

Impact of the 2012 Drought - YIELDSImpact of the 2012 Drought - YIELDS

Maize crop average yield (t/ha) in 2012 compared to the 2009-2011average.

MAFI early estimate - National average maize yield decline - 52%

MAFI/FAO assessment - National average maize yield decline - 59%

Impact of the 2012 Drought - YIELDSImpact of the 2012 Drought - YIELDS

Sunflower average yield (t / ha) in 2012 compared to the 2009-2011average.

MAFI early estimate - National average sunflower yield decline - 37%

MAFI/FAO assessment - National average sunflower yield decline 53%

PLANTAPLANTAŢIE DE VIŢĂ-DE-VIE AFECTATĂŢIE DE VIŢĂ-DE-VIE AFECTATĂ

Impact of the 2012 Drought - OUTPUTImpact of the 2012 Drought - OUTPUT

TRANSNISTRIA - Area, Yield and Output of Main Crops - 20121

[1] Based on operative data provided by Mr.Tsibulski, the representative of agriculture department of Transnistria in 31 August 2012

Crop Area planted, ha

Area affected, ha

Output, ton

Area Damaged by 2012 drought, %

Average yield 2012, Mt/ha

Average yield, over 2009-2011, Mt/ha

Average decline of yield, over 2009-2011, Mt/ha

Wheat 50000 10000 100000 20% 1.80 3.00 60%

Barley 20000 10000 17000 50% 1.70 2.50 68%

Maize 45000 16000 54000 36% 1.20 2.70 44%

Sunflower 56000 44000 39200 79% 0.70 1.50 47%

Impact of the 2012 Drought - LivestockImpact of the 2012 Drought - Livestock

2. Destocking is an on-going trend in Moldova.

It is estimated that the drought related destocking will account for 15-20% of the national cattle herd.

In most affected areas such as Gagauzia and Taraklia, the impact may well be higher.

Past experiences show unlikely restocking and permanent loss in livestock and contraction in livelihoods.

1. Livestock Production

Available stocks account for 30-50% of the total animal feed needs.

By the end of the harvest (maize), additional 10-20% of the feed needs will be accumulated.

It is estimated that destocking of up to 10% of the national cattle herd has occurred by the end of August 2012.

The affected population can be divided in three categories, with effects of the drought impacting each group differently.

• Leaders (businesses) cultivating on large areas will absorb most of the damages. They will obtain reduced or no yields, and will be constrained to cover the land lease costs and to invest in the next season’s production.

• Rural residents, estimated at some 70% of the rural population on average, renting their land to leaders and will possibly benefit from the land lease and employment.

• Small to medium size farmers including farmers with own livestock and the small leaders (businesses) cultivating less then 10 ha, constitute between 10 and 30% of the rural population. These small to medium size farmers will be most severely impacted. In addition, to reduced or lost yields, they have to invest in next season’s production and/or in animal feed.

Impact of the 2012 DroughtImpact of the 2012 Drought

MAIN FINDINGSMAIN FINDINGS

1. Limited Food security implications due to the drought.

2. Impact of the drought on crop and livestock production is negative at the national level: North – moderatly affected, Centre – very affected and South - strongly and severly affected.

3. Severe natural hazards affect Moldova on regular basis. The Ministry of agriculture is well aware and making efforts for long term mitigation (introduction of no-till cultivation, drip irrigation, etc.).

4. There is a need to improve the coping mechanisms in drought prone areas and knowledge across the livestock and plant production sectors.

5. Limmitted capacities of the local public authorities and other specialized units to cope with drought effects.

ACTIONS TAKENACTIONS TAKEN

• The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Industry with technical assistance and support from FAO, evaluated the damage of the drought.

• The findings are presented in a Comprehensive Drought Damages report. The estimated losses are 3 billions LMD, of which 2,5 billions LMD are in the phytotechny sector and 0,5 billions LMD in horticulture.

• The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Industry will distribute 161,5 MT winter wheat seed to the severely affected farmers (output from FAO GCP/MOL/001/AUS project financed by the Austrian Government).

• To mitigate the impact of drought in the frame of disaster risk preparedness initiative, the Government will subsidize inputs for winter 2012 crops (autumn planting) to the severely affected farmers.

ASSESMENT –ASSESMENT – NEEDS NEEDS - POSSIBILITIES - POSSIBILITIES

• The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Industry is interested in development of community based agriculture disaster risk preparedness and awareness systems, including monitoring, evaluation and coordination mechanisms, as well as actions plan for response with clearly set intervention thresholds.

• Currently the Government of Moldova asks for support in preventing of destocking and addressing the immediate needs of the most severely affected farmers, by:

Prevent destocking od livestock and ensure the immediate needs of the most affected agricultural producers, by offering support for sustaining of 1 head of cattle per household:

Animal fodder (100 kg/maize grain/household) for critical 100 days of winter feeding (for 26,000 pregnant cows or 68% of the cattle population) (approximately 12 millions LMD or one million US$)

Support for partial cover of costs for the winter campaign for a surface of 420 thousand of hectares for the yield of 2013 (agricultural inputs: fuel, seeds, fertilizers). Total estimative costs: 1062 millions of LMD or 88,5 millions USD (at an aprox. exchange rate: 12 LMD for 1 USD).

Support for purchase of maize seeds for spring planting and restarting of the fodder production. Estimative costs: 190 millions of LMD or 16 millions USD

Thank you!Thank you!

Questions and comments are welcomedQuestions and comments are welcomed