The mid-term Baseline Scenario - Nachhaltiges...
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The mid-term Baseline Scenario 1 „Sustainable Land Management“ - Workshop on Models and Scenarios - 03.09.2012 Berlin
Transcript of The mid-term Baseline Scenario - Nachhaltiges...
The mid-term Baseline Scenario
1 „Sustainable Land Management“ - Workshop on Models and Scenarios - 03.09.2012 Berlin
Forward projection of the current status under application of currently observed trends. Framework conditions are only varied where changes are already political agreed.
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Definition
Models
• DART (Dynamic Applied Regional Trade): CGE model
• CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact):
Agricultural Sector Model
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DART: Input data
• UN population
• GTAP database
• Land use via land rents
• Biofuel demand from OECD (2012) and National Action Plans for
European Counties (2011)
• Disaggregation of crops based on FAO STAT
• Disaggregation of biofuel sectors based on F.O Licht and Méo
Consulting
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CAPRI: Input data
• UN population
• FAO STAT
• OECD AGLINK/COSIMO database
• EUROSTAT (for Europe)
• Several other sources
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DART/CAPRI
2 Baselines (different model types, databases etc) but:
Some variables are aligned (e.g. population and biofuel quotas)
And will be aligned soon (GDP and energy prices)
(both endogenous to DART and exogenous to CAPRI)
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Population 2007-2030
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
in m
io
CHNINDAFRROWMEASEALAMUSAMAIBRAFSURUSMEDJPNREUDEUPAOGBRFRACANANZBENSCA
After: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Population Estimates and Projections Section (2010).
Global biofuel quotas From OECD Agricultural Outlook 2012:
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
05
101520253035404550
BRAET
BRABD
E27ET
E27BD
USAET
USABD
OtherET
OtherBD
Demand Mandate Share in total fuel
bnl
US ethanol
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
RFS2 EPA Option 1 EPA Option 2 EPA Option 3 Baseline
bnl Biodiesel Cellulosic Other advanced Other conventional
2021
9
EU27 Renewable Energy Directive
Not reached
Ethanol Biodiesel
Who fills the RED in the transportation sector 0.5%
4.2% 5.3%
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CAPRI Baseline
• Not yet finished
• Due to update to OECD/FAO Agricultural outlook 2012 (until 2021) and latest FAOSTAT database
• Until 2020 the CAPRI baseline will be based on that outlook
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Global Ethanol production and trade
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
020406080
100120140160180200
2006 2011 2016 2021
bnl Production Trade Trade/Production
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Ethanol production and use in 2021
USA 51%
Brazil 22%
EU 11%
China 6%
India 2%
Thailand 1%
Other 8%
Use Thailand
2% India 2% China
6%
Other 8%
EU 9%
Brazil 27%
USA 46%
Production
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Ethanol Production and Use in other countries
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Use Production Use Production
bnl Asia Other America Africa Other Europe Oceania
2009-2011 2021
15
Global biodiesel production and trade
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2006 2011 2016 2021
bnl Production Trade Trade/Production
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Biodiesel production and use
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Use Production Use Production
bnl
Asia Other AmericaAfrica OceaniaOther Europe
2021 2009 -2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Use Production Use Production
bnl EU-27 USA Argentina Brazil
2009 -2011 2021
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
USD
/MT
Maize Wheat Rice Oilseeds
Real crop prices down from recent peaks but to stay on a higher plateau..
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Demand - Key messages • Food and feed demand is robust
– Historically strong economic growth in developing, particularly in emerging countries
– Over four fifths of food demand growth is in developing countries
• Biofuel feedstock demand will remain strong but slower growing than in decade 2000-10: energy market is key.. – Policy distortions are still strong - mandates – Ethanol from maize tops out with US mandate, and global
growth will come mostly from sugarcane – Biodiesel from edible vegetable oils grows strongly
• Implications – Robust demand for food, feed and biofuel feedstocks will
pressure supply systems
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Shifting consumption structure
Main drivers of consumption: • Population, slowing but still growing fast in Africa • Rising per-capita income, growing affluence of large middle classes in emerging
economies. • Towards diet harmonisation, yet large differences in per-capita consumption levels
persist. • The biofuel sector is expected to continue to grow rapidly and will increasingly affect
agricultural markets.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
kcal
/day
Year
Developing countries
Sugar
Dairy
Fat
Meat
Cereal
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2000 2005 2010 2015
kcal
/day
Year
Developed countries
20
-0.6-0.4-0.2
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.6
Gro
wth
per
yea
r 20
12-2
1
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Shift in global consumption from staple foods to value-added products continues
Food and feed dominate cereal use: Ethanol expands until 2015 – still small but important.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Mill
ion
MT
Total cereals use
Food Feed Biofuel Other
1.3% p.a.
1.2% p.a.
0.7% p.a.
1.7% p.a.
0.6% p.a. 1.8%
p.a. 26% p.a.
2.8% p.a.
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Industrial (biodiesel) use of vegetable oil continues to increase
020406080
100120140160180200
Mil
lion
MT
Edible vegetable oil use
Food Industrial
4% p.a. 2% p.a.
4% p.a.
18% p.a.
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Key messages - Supply
• Production will respond to higher prices – But how much, and where?
• Supply growth differs regionally – Industrial countries – slow growth – Most from developing and former transition countries
• Poultry and pork production respond to strong demand from developing countries, but with higher feed costs
• Productivity growth appears to be slowing – Where high access to variable inputs, supply response will be strongest
in the short term, but limited by higher fertilizer and feed costs – Growth in yields of many crops is slowing – Best land is mostly used, expansion will be to more marginal land, with
costly access and marketing, and more variable yields – Water supply for irrigation is increasingly limited
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Net production indexes show a slowing of growth
1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-20
All Agriculture Production 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.6 1.7
Production-per capita 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.4 0.7
Crops Production 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.6 1.7
Production-per capita 0.9 0.4 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.7
Livestock Production 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.8
Production-per capita 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7
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0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
Inde
x =
1 in
200
0
N. America L. America N.Africa&M.East SSAW.Europe E.Europe&C.Asia Other Asia
Net agricultural production index Growth dominated by Latin America, slowest is W. Europe
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Key messages
• Demand remains firm, despite high prices • Global productivity growth is slowing • Price incentives for investment in agriculture
have increased • Emerging issues:
– Aquaculture
– Climate change
– Urbanization
– Global economic crisis
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What will the CAPRI Baseline add to that outlook?
• Higher country resolution for Europe • Higher product disaggregation • Bilateral trade flows • Land market
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European regions
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EU015000 European Union 15 DEU GermanyEU010000 European Union 15 GBR Great BritainBUR Bulgaria and Romania FRA France
NO000000 Norway SCA EU ScandinaviaTUR Turkey BEN BeneluxCH Switzerland MED Mediteranian ( all on NUTS2 level) REU Rest of EUREU Rest of EuropeUKR Ukraine
DARTCAPRI
Eur
ope
Asian/Oceanian Regions
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RUS Russia
FSUFormer Soviet Union without Russia
IND India RUS Russia
PAK Pakistan FSURest of Former Soviet Union and rest of Europe
BGD Bangladesh JPN JapanCHN China CPA ChinaJAP Japan IND India
MALIND Malaysia and Indonesia MAI Indonesia Malaysia
TAW Taiwan SEA South East Asia
ASI_TIGAsian Tigers: Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea
ASI_SEAsian South East (Vietnam, Thailand, Brunei)
ASOCE_LDC Asian and Ociania LDCASOCE_REST Rest of Asia
Oceania ANZ Australia and New Zealand NAC Australia New Zealand
DARTCAPRI
Asi
a
African Regions
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MOR Morocco
MIDEAST Middle East MEA Middle East North Africa
NGA Nigeria AFR Subsaharan AfricaETH EthiopiaZAF South AfricaAFR_LDC Africcan LDCsAFR_REST Africa Rest (practically ACP)MED Other mediterrean countries
Afr
ica
American Regions
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USA USA USA USACAN Canada CAN CanadaMEX Mexico BRA Brazil
ARG Argentina PAUCParaguay Argentina Uruguay Chile
BRA Brazil LAM Rest of Latin AmericaMSA_ACP Middle and South America ACPRSA Rest of South and Middle AmericaURUPAR Uruguay and ParaguayMER_OTH Bolivia, Chile, Venezuela
PAS Rest of the World
Am
eric
a
DARTCAPRI
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CAPRI DART CAPRI DARTWheat Wheat Raw milk at dairyRice (paddy eq) Paddy Rice Whey powederMaize Maize CaseinRye Whole milk powderBarley ButterOats Skimmed milk powderother cereals other grains CheeseRapeseed rape seed Fresh milk productsSoybean soy bean CreamSunflower other oilseeds Concentraded milk
palm fruit Rape oil Rapeseed oilSugar sugar cane Soya oil Soybean oil
sugar beet Palm oil Palm fruit oilPulses Rest of agriculture Sunflower oil Oil from other oil seedsPotatoes Olive oilTextiles Other vegetable oil Other vegetable oilsTobacco Rape seed cakeTomatoes Sunflower seed cakeOther vegetables Soya cakeApples pears peaches destilled dried grainsOther fruits Bioethanol BioethanolCitrus Biodiesel BiodieselTable grapesTable olivesTable wineBeefPork meatSheep and goat meatEggsPoultryCoffee, dry equivalentTea, dry equivalentCocoa beans, dry equivalent
primary processed
CAPRI results
• Will be presented through the GDI on DART
regional resolution,
• but CAPRI regional results will be available
further disaggregated upon request
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Change in biofuel production and trade in 2020 (global quotas vs no quota)
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Bioethanol Biodiesel
Production
Exports/Trade
GDP 2004-2030
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0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
in m
io U
S$
USA
CHN
JPN
MED
ROW
MEA
GBR
DEU
FRA
LAM
SCA
REU
IND
RUS
AFR
CAN
BRA
ANZ
MAI
PAO
SEA
FSU
40
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Mio
US$
CHN
JPN
MED
ROW
MEA
GBR
DEU
FRA
LAM
SCA
REU
IND
RUS
AFR
CAN
BRA
ANZ
MAI
PAO
SEA
FSU
GDP in India, China, and Africa triples
Change in energy word prices
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0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
COL CRU GAS MGAS MDIE OIL ELY
Price change 2004 - 2027
Change in energy prices – by region
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-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
DEUGBRFRASCAMEDREUUSACANANZRUSFSUBRAPAOLAMCHNINDMAISEAMEAAFRROWCOL CRU GAS MGAS MDIE OIL ELY
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0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
PLMoil RSDoil SOYoil OSDNoil ETH1 BDIE
Price change 2004 - 2027
Change in word prices – biofuel commodities
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Change in word prices – biofuel commodities
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
450%
PDR WHT MZE GRON PLM RSD SOY OSDN C_B LVS
Price change 2004 - 2027
Price change of agricultural commodities in China and Germany 2004 - 2027
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
CHN PDR CHN WHT CHN MZECHN GRON CHN RSD CHN SOYCHN OSDN CHN C_B CHN LVSCHN AGR
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
DEU WHT DEU MZE DEU GRON
DEU RSD DEU OSDN DEU C_B
DEU LVS DEU AGR
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Change in land prices: Brazil
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
BRA AEZ1
BRA AEZ2
BRA AEZ3
BRA AEZ4
BRA AEZ5
BRA AEZ6
BRA AEZ7
BRA AEZ8
BRA AEZ9
BRA AEZ10
BRA AEZ11
BRA AEZ12
BRA AEZ13
BRA AEZ14
BRA AEZ15
BRA AEZ16
BRA AEZ17
BRA AEZ18
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Change in land prices: Germany
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
DEU AEZ1
DEU AEZ2
DEU AEZ3
DEU AEZ4
DEU AEZ5
DEU AEZ6
DEU AEZ7
DEU AEZ8
DEU AEZ9
DEU AEZ10
DEU AEZ11
DEU AEZ12
DEU AEZ13
DEU AEZ14
DEU AEZ15
DEU AEZ16
DEU AEZ17
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Change in land prices: China
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
CHN AEZ1
CHN AEZ2
CHN AEZ3
CHN AEZ4
CHN AEZ5
CHN AEZ6
CHN AEZ7
CHN AEZ8
CHN AEZ9
CHN AEZ10
CHN AEZ11
CHN AEZ12
CHN AEZ13
CHN AEZ14
CHN AEZ15
CHN AEZ16
CHN AEZ17
CHN AEZ18
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Change in Trade: USA
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
PDR WHT MZE GRON PLM RSD SOY OSDN C_B LVS AGR
USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA
change imports 2004 - 2027 change exports 2004 - 2027
50
Change in Trade: USA
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
ETH1 ETH2 BDIE
USA USA USA
change imports 2004 - 2027 change exports 2004 - 2027
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Change in Trade: BRA
36%
72%
27%
113%
297%
-21%
57%
219%
94%
141% 83% 88% 55% 768% 160% 142% 126% 68% 83%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
PDR WHT MZE GRON PLM RSD SOY OSDN C_B LVS
BRA BRA BRA BRA BRA BRA BRA BRA BRA BRA
change imports 2004 - 2027 change exports 2004 - 2027
Base year values very small for sugar beet (c_b) rapeseed imports and palm exports
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Change in Trade: IND
1
10
100
1000
PDR WHT MZE GRON RSD SOY OSDN C_B LVS AGR
IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND IND
%
change imports 2004 - 2027 change exports 2004 - 2027
Base year values very small for lvs, agr
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Change in Trade: CHN
8138% 780% 36356% 197%
-49%
565% 198% 539% 427% 197% 1302%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
PDR WHT MZE GRON PLM RSD SOY OSDN C_B LVS AGR
CHN CHN CHN CHN CHN CHN CHN CHN CHN CHN CHN
change imports 2004 - 2027 change exports 2004 - 2027
Base year values very small for all but wht, soy, lvs, agr
Next steps
• Small improvements in DART • Inclusion of GDP and energy prices in CAPRI
• Calculation of scenario runs (afternoon session)
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