The Mathematics of the General Election
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Transcript of The Mathematics of the General Election
![Page 1: The Mathematics of the General Election](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062720/5681340f550346895d9b004d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Mathematics of the General Election
Dr Justin Greaves
Department of Politics
University of Warwick
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Outline of this talk
• The basics (background and context)
• What is a ‘swing’?
• What is a ‘hung parliament’?
• The electoral system
• Opinion polls
• The national debt (perhaps the main election issue?)
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So, what are the basics?
• More than 45 million people aged 18 or above vote for a new Member of Parliament (MP) for the area in which they live (Constituency)
• Elections must be held at least every five years in Britain – up to PM to choose the date
• Traditionally held on a Thursday
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Why a Thursday? • One theory about its
origins is that people were not paid until Fridays and so holding polls on Thursdays ensured they were not too drunk to vote
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Two controversial issues
1. Should the voting age be reduced to 16?
2. Should we introduce compulsory voting (as in Australia)?
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The three main parties
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The three party leaders
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The TV debates• This is the first
election in the UK where there have been TV debates between the three party leaders
• Here is a clip from the 2nd debate
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Too much celebrity?• Is it becoming too
much like the X Factor or Britain’s Got Talent?
• Leaders judged on how good they look on TV?
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So now onto the maths ....
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What is a ‘swing’? • Swing is a tool which
helps explain how elections are won and lost
• In simple terms it is a way of measuring how the public's support of political parties changes from one election to the next
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The calculation
• Step 1. Add the rise in one party's share in the vote to the fall in the second party's share of the vote.
• Step 2. Divide your figure by two. The resulting figure is the swing.
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An example
• In the 2005 General Election the Labour Party had a lead of 3% over the Conservative Party
• Let’s assume that in Thursday’s election, the result is a Con lead of 4% over Labour
• Exercise: calculate the swing
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The answer• This is a swing of
3.5% (3+4/2).
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What to look out for• 1.6% swing against Labour: Labour lose
their overall majority • 4.3% swing against Labour: The
Conservatives become the largest party. They would still not have an overall majority.
• 6.9% swing against Labour: The Conservatives gain an overall majority and therefore form the next government(but will a UNS operate?)
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What is a ‘hung parliament’?
• If one party has an absolute majority it means that it has more seats than all the other parties put together (326+)
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• If no party has such a majority then there is a hung parliament
• The smaller parties can then join forces to out-vote the government
• This makes it difficult to pass laws
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• There is a good
chance of a hung parliament resulting from this election
• The last time it happened was in February 1974
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Options in a hung parliament
• Formal coalition (alliance with another party)
• Confidence and supply
• Minority government
• If none of these options work there would have to be another election
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Why is it so rare?
• Hung Parliaments and coalitions happen a lot in other countries
• So why are they so rare in the UK?
• This is mainly a result of our electoral system
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Proportional Representation
• Many countries have a proportional electoral system (eg: under PR if a party wins 30% of the votes, it will win approx 30% of the seats)
• It is rare for any one party to get over 50% of the vote
• Therefore, in these countries parties will have to work together
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First past the post• Britain has a first past the post electoral
system• Therefore, 650 constituencies• In each one, the candidate who gets the
most votes wins (even if it is less than 50%)
• EG: if the winner gets 36% of the vote they still take the seat
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• It is like a horse race• The winner of the
race is the first to pass a particular point on the track
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Strange results
• FPP can throw up strange results:
1.A party with 35/40% support can get well over 50% of the seats
2.The party that wins most votes may not win most seats (eg: 1974)
3.The Lib Dems could come first in vote share and third in seats
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Opinion polls
• You may have seen opinion polls in the media
• These may only interview 1000 people out of the whole population of Britain
• If the sample is ‘representative’ these polls should be accurate
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• Polls usually have a
margin of error of + or – 3%
• 19 times out of 20 a poll should fall between this margin of error
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Think, pair, share• What could cause
an opinion poll to be biased or skewed in some way?
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National debt and borrowing• One of the biggest
election issue is the amount of money the government is borrowing (and Britain’s national debt)
• Due to the recession the government had to borrow a lot of money
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• One reason was to
rescue the banks
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• Another was to pay
benefits to those who became unemployed
• And if people are out of work the government also loses tax revenue
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Party Policy
• The Labour Party plans to reduce the amount we borrow by 50% over four years (starting in 2011)
• The Conservative Party say this is not enough. They want to go cut faster and deeper
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Debt statistics• Borrowing of £163
billion last year• The government
forecasts that debt will soar to £1.1 trillion by 2011
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Debt statistics (2)• We owe £14,480 for
every man, woman and child
• That's more than £31,254 for every person in employment
• Every household will pay £1,898 this year, just to cover the interest
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Thank you for listening