The Math That Matters
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Transcript of The Math That Matters
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The Math that Matters in the Realtime Web SXSW 2012 | #MathMatters
Gilad Lotan | @gilgul
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Illustra(on: Ma. Taylor
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Flickr: mangpages
Attention is the Bottleneck
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Information Flows through People
Alex Dragulescu
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Flickr: sharynmorrow
$ = f(Channel, Demographics, Time, …)
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$ = f(Topic, Network, Timing, Influence, Trust, “engagement” …)
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Daily Routines
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Data Reflects Us
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Language / Time Zone 49ers: 36, Saints: 32
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Game starts
Game ends!
49ers
Typical Sports Event
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GOP debates
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#gayrights, #lgbt, #jesus, #flipflop, #jobs, #economy
#pales(ne, #OWS, #immigra(on, #abor(on
#republican, #dems, #economics, #amnesty
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• Know your data • Identify deviations from the norm (important
events) • Identify types of events (shape of the curve) • Understand context (language)
• Co-occurrence (relationship between terms)
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Invisible Audiences
Flickr: leN-‐hand
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Seeing Millions of Conversations
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Al-Jazeera Fox News
Difference between Audiences
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What Audiences are Clicking on?
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Shape of an Audience
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Pi.sburgh
Oklahoma City
Noblesville, IN
Engelwood, Dayton, OH
Birmingham, AL
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1.4m 4.6m 3.9m 1.7m 620k 879k
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• 28.7% of those who follow The Economist also follow the New York Times. This is the highest intersec(on in terms of percentage.
• 19% of those who follow Al-‐Jazeera English also follow the New York Times.
• Of the people who follow either CNN or New York Times, 9.5% follow both.
• 663 users follow all six news accounts.
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Clicks per Tweet
Clicks per Tweet (norm) RT per Tweet (norm)
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• Know your audience – What they talk about (audience TTs) – Who else they follow – Their shape (clusters)
• More followers != More engagement
• Driving traffic vs. Building a Network (reach)
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Information Flows
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Influencer: An individual who disproportionately affects the spread of information
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“Influence” as an Exposed Metric is Problematic
• Simple quantifiable measure • People aren’t always rational – may trust
someone despite past transgressions • Dynamic – changes constantly • Exogenous – may come from outside the
observed network • Based on Context
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Gaining Your Network’s Trust
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Urban Outfitters vs. NYC Crafters
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Going Viral is Usually Unexpected
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“I’m not a Twi.er celebrity by any means. I barely had over 1000 followers when the day began... What I do have is a tribe. A #ght knit group of independent ar#sts and cra4ers that follow me. My cause resounded with them. They spread it, and their friends spread it, and a few big influencers on Twi.er spread it, and then it was gone”
Network Type + Resonance > Network Size
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Not necessarily about being first
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• Trust • Context Setting • Having the right network in place (“tribe”) • Bridges
Instead of “Influence”, think about:
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- Know your audience What type of people follow you, how they’re connected Alignment between content and audience
- No to vanity metrics
more followers doesn’t necessarily mean more engagement
- Bridges vs. Influencers
just because we’re connected doesn’t mean information will flow
- Clicks vs. Retweets what are you optimizing for?
- Building up the Right Network
trust, resonance
- Not about being first