The Mad Hedge Fund Trader “Smelling the Roses ” With John Thomas San Francisco January 8, 2014 .
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader “Special Ebola Issue”
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Transcript of The Mad Hedge Fund Trader “Special Ebola Issue”
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The Mad Hedge Fund Trader“Special Ebola Issue”
With John Thomasfrom San Francisco, CA
October 8, 2014www.madhedgefundtrader.com
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Trade Alert PerformanceStill Another New All Time High!
*January Final +3.05%, *July Final +4.18% *February Final +6.41%, *August Final 5.86%*March Final -2.52% *September Final 5.01%*April Final +3.32% *October MTD 5.18%*May Final +4.61%*June Final +4.24%
2014 YTD +39.7%, versus 1% for the Dow,an outperformance of 39%, 10% since last webinar!
*First 187 weeks of Trading +162%!
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Paid Subscriber Trailing 12 Month Return +65.4%
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46 Months Since Inception Averaged annualized +41.9%
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Portfolio Review-Pedal to the Metal!Making a Fortune on a Neutral BookPositioned for a big sideways move
current capital at risk
Risk On
(TSLA) 11/$200-$220 call spread 10.00%(TBT) short Treasury ETF 10.00%(SPY) 11/$185-$190 call spread 10.00%(BAC 11/$15-$16 call spread 10.00%
Risk Off
(IWM) 11/$117-$120 put spread -10.00%(IWM) 11/$116-$119 put spread -10.00%(SPY) 10/$202-$205 put spread -20.00%(FXE) 11/$127-$129 put spread -10.00%
total net position -10.00%
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Strategy Outlook-Risk Back On
*Blockbuster September nonfarm payroll of 248,000, huge back month revisions, headline unemployment 6.1% down to 5.9%, an 8 year low
*Every asset class in the world is anticipating higher interest rates, except the bond market
*Commodities, oil, gold, silver, base metals, food, and foreign currencies in free fall
*Dollar hits multiyear high against everything
*Is this the Midterm election correction,but we just can’t see it? Buy the post electioncrash if the Democrats hold the senate(watch Kansas).
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The Jim Parker ViewThe Mad Day Trader-On sale for a $1,500 upgrade
Technical Set Up of the week-Watch European financials for the lead
Buy
*Gold at bottom of range for buy
*Bonds only have 2-3 points to go
Sell Short
*If (IWM) doesn’t hold here drops another 10%
Avoid * Everything, could take 2 more weeks for marketsto Sort themselves out
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The Global Economy- The US is an Island of Strength*Blockbuster September nonfarm payroll of 248,000, huge back month revisions, headline unemployment 6.1% down to 5.9%, an 8 year low
*US August JOLTS report show most new job offerings since 2001, labor tightening approaching
*US August Factory orders -10.8%, biggest drop in 10 years
*Plunging gasoline prices under $3 amount to a huge tax cut for all
*European and Japanese economies grinding to a halt,German August industrial production down 4% MOM
*Will force Germany to be more open tomonetary easing
*IMF cuts global growth forecast, but boostsUS from 3.3% in 2014 to 3.8% in 2015
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Weekly Jobless Claims - The trend is your Friend-8,000 to 287,000, new 8 year lows!
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Bonds-
*Global bond rates still at rock bottom levels, last time US unemployment was at 5.9%, 10 year Treasuries were at 4%, now at 2.40%
*This is the final month of the Fed’s tapers quantitative easing, but interest rates rises not until late 2015 0r 2016
*ECB QE executed in private bond market, not public, pushing prices artificially high
*Switch out of bonds into stocks about to become major factor
*Treasuries make back almost the entire September correct in two days, hit 2.39% for the ten year, another short selling window is opening
*Watch junk bonds (JNK) as the new canary in the coal mine for global risk taking
*Was the September bond selloff all aboutPIMCO’s Bill Gross?
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Ten Year Treasuries (TLT) 2.34%
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30 Year Treasury Yield ($TYX)-Yield 3.05%
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Junk Bonds (HYG) 5.81% YieldThe New Lead Contract
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2X Short Treasuries (TBT)long 10% position-Flirting with being early
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Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD)3.54% Yield
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Emerging Market Debt (ELD) 3.56% Yield
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Municipal Bonds (MUB)-2.88% yield, Mix of AAA, AA, and A rated bonds
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MLP’s (LINE) 10.10% Yield-Oil drag boosting yield
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Stocks-The Bull That Can’t Be Killed!
*Solid bounce off $1,925 and September nonfarm rally brings the bulls back in
*Alibaba correction almost done, fears of strong dollar hurting US earnings is being overstated, most big companies have hedged out risks
*Watch for the sector rotation, out of energy and technology and into financials and consumer discretionary
*Yearend rally coming, but not yet, expect a sideways wedge for 2-4 weeks
*(SPY) could add 10% by yearend from the August low, regardless of geopolitics
*Volatility peaking here
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S&P 500 (SPY) Targeting 200 day moving averageLong 11/$185-$190 vertical bull call spread
Short 2X 10/$202-$205 vertical bear put spread
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Dow Average-Targeting 200 day moving average
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NASDAQ (QQQ)-Still an Uptrend
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Europe Hedged Equity (HEDJ)-200 day broken!
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(VIX)-It’s Alive!
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Russell 2000 (IWM)-Channeling Too
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Technology Sector SPDR (XLK), (ROM)Rolling Over
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Industrials Sector SPDR (XLI)
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Health Care Sector SPDR (XLV), (RXL)
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Financial Select SPDR (XLF)Hit by Strong Bond Market
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Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY)
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Apple (AAPL) –iPhone 6 Indigestion
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Tesla (TSLA) –New Model Launch TomorrowPanasonic to invest tens of billions of dollars in giga factories
long the 11/$200-$220 vertical bull call spread
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GT Advanced Technologies (GTAT)No Sapphire for iPhone 6 Means Chapter 11!
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Google (GOOGL)
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China-The Bull market is Here
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Japan (DXJ)-Weak on poor GDP figuresYen Dead Cat Bounce
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Emerging Markets (EEM)-200 day here too
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India (EPI) – Still Grinding Up on EEM Strength
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Foreign Currencies-King Dollar Reigns Supreme!
*Prospect of rising US rates and falling ones around the world sends the greenback to multiyear highs
*Failure of ECB to announce new moves pushes Euro into free fall.
*VAT tax rise hangover still hurting Japanese economy, yen break Y110, targeting Y115
*Commodity collapse killing the Aussie
*Virtually all currencies now extremely over expended, risk of a snap back rally risingoff the back of Treasury complaints aboutcompetitive devaluations
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Euro (FXE)-The Freefall is OnLong the 11/$127-$129 vertical bear put spread
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Long Dollar Index (UUP)Four Year High, But just the beginning of the bull market
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British Pound (FXB)
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Japanese Yen (FXY)-
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Short Japanese Yen ETF (YCS)
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Australian Dollar (FXA) –
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Chinese Yuan (CYB)-The bull market has resumed
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Emerging Market Currencies (CEW)
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Energy-Collapse!
*Technical breakdown of the charts in play, Targeting $70/barrel, oil major stocks already discounting $80/barrel, is marginal overseas cost of production
*Contango weighing heavily on prices, Brent premium almost disappears
*Saudi Arabia said it would cut production, but cut prices instead, deep discounting for the Chinese
*Gasoline prices now below $3 inmuch of the country
*Russia facing budget crisis,boosting exports to offsetfalling prices
*Kurds have 15 tankers trying tosell oil on the black market
*Natural gas sees one of the largest weekly injections in history at 112 Bcf
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OilBack to Multi Year $77.50-$112.50 Range
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United States Oil Fund (USO)
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Natural Gas (UNG)-
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Copper-Bottom of the Range
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Freeport McMoRan (FCX)
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Precious Metals-Breakdown!
*Break of $1,200 targets $1,000
*5 year renewal of Central Bank Selling Agreement, with no limits spreads panic
*Seasonally positive Indian wedding and Chinese New Year having absolutely no impact
*Waiting for India’s PM Modi tolife import taxes on gold
*No flight to safety here!
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Gold-Plunging Interest Rates Crushing Prices
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Barrack Gold (ABX)
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Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF- (GDX)
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Silver (SLV) –Breakdown!
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Silver Miners (SIL)
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Agriculture
•*Weather still perfect, prices falling, Corn targeting 15 billion bushels, the largest in history
•*Soybeans take a hit on Chinese import ban on GMO imports
*Falling crop prices are pulling farm values down, could feed into in rural banking problems if continues
*Rail cars diverted from grain to oil, causing shipping problems in the Midwest and Canada
*Strong dollar making US grain exportsincreasingly uncompetitive in the international market
*Stand aside
•
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(CORN) - New Lows!
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(SOYB)-Free Fall!
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DB Commodities Index ETF (DBC)
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Real Estate-An Autumn Revival?
*Price gains are slowing dramatically nationally.
*July S&P 500 Case Shiller 20 city Index now up only 6.7% YOY,rate of gains falling quickly
*Only San Francisco, Miami, and Las Vegas are still showing double digit YOY gains
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May S&P/Case–Shiller Home Price Index+14% YOY down to +6.7%
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Trade Sheetkeep positions small, better not to trade at all
than pursue marginal trades
*Stocks- buy the dips, but keep size small, with financials leading*Bonds- sell rallies across all fixed income, end is near*Commodities-stand aside*Currencies- sell every Euro rally forever, and the yen too*Precious Metals –stand aside, buy the next bottom*Volatility-stand aside, could be a long summer*The Ags –stand aside*Real estate- stand aside
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To buy strategy luncheon tickets Please go to:
www.madhedgefundtrader.com
Next Strategy Webinar 12:00 Wednesday, October 22, 2014 Live from San Francisco, California
Good Luck and Good Trading!