The Macroeconomic and Structural Implications of a Once-in-a-Lifetime Boom in the Terms of Trade...
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The Macroeconomic and Structural Implications of a Once-in-a-Lifetime Boom in the Terms of Trade David Gruen 24 November 2011
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Transcript of The Macroeconomic and Structural Implications of a Once-in-a-Lifetime Boom in the Terms of Trade...
The Macroeconomic and Structural Implications of a Once-in-a-Lifetime
Boom in the Terms of Trade
David Gruen24 November 2011
2
Terms of trade
Note: The 2011-12 Budget forecasts are used for the assumed future evolution of the terms of trade.Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5206.0 and Treasury.
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
1869-70 1889-90 1909-10 1929-30 1949-50 1969-70 1989-90 2009-10
IndexIndex
(f)
3
Terms of trade
Note: Quarter 0 is June 1970 and June 2002. The 2011-12 Budget forecasts are used for the assumed future evolution of the terms of trade.Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5206.0 and Treasury.
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44
1970s
Current
Quarters
Forecasts
Forecast from 2005 MYEFO
Index Index
4
Nominal value of the $A (TWI)
Note: Quarter 0 is June 1970 and June 2002. Source: RBA and Treasury.
60
80
100
120
140
60
80
100
120
140
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44
1970s
Current
Quarters
Assumption
Index Index
5
Growth in non-farm GDP
Note: Quarter 0 is June 1970 and June 2002. Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5206.0 and Treasury.
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44
1970s
Current
Quarters
Forecasts
Per cent, tty Per cent, tty
6
Consumer prices
Note: Quarter 0 is June 1970 and June 2002. Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6401.0 and Treasury.
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44
Per cent, tty Per cent, tty
Forecasts
1970s
Current
7
Male average weekly earnings(total earnings, all employees)
Note: Quarter 0 is June 1970 and June 2002. Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6302.0 and Treasury.
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-10
0
10
20
30
40
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44
1970s
Current
Quarters
Forecasts
Per cent, tty Per cent, tty
8
Australian government general government expenditure
(deviations from year 1)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Current
1970s
Years
Forecasts
Per cent of GDP Per cent of GDP
Note: Year 1 is the financial years 1970-71 and 2002-03. Source: Final Budget Outcome 2010-11 and 2011-12 Budget.
9
Unemployment rate
Note: Quarter 0 is June 1970 and June 2002. Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0 and Treasury.
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44
1970s
Current
Quarters
Forecasts
Per cent Per cent
10
Mining and non-mining investment
Source: ABS Catalogue Numbers 5204.0, 5625.0 and Treasury.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2001-02 2003-04 2005-06 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12
Mining
Non-mining
Per cent of GDP Per cent of GDP
11
Sectoral shares
Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5206.0 and Treasury.
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
Decade to 2002-03 2003-04 to 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12(f) 2012-13(f)
Non-mining Agriculture Mining Mining-related
Per cent Per cent
12
Sectoral contributions to GDP growth
Source: ABS Catalogue Numbers 5204.0, 5206.0 and Treasury.
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Decade to 2002-03 2003-04 to 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12(f) 2012-13(f)
Agriculture Mining and related Non-mining Stat disc Real GDP
Per cent Per cent
13
Sectoral growth rates(three-year centred moving average)
Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5206.0 and Treasury.
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
1989-90 1993-94 1997-98 2001-02 2005-06 2009-10
Non-mining Mining
Mining-related
Forecasts
Per cent Per cent
14
Distribution of unemployment across the country
Note: Each point on the scatter plot represents the weighted average and weighted standard deviation of regional unemployment for a particular quarter between Sep-1998 and Jun-2011. The weighted average unemployment rates for all SLAs differ slightly from those estimated in ABS 6202.0.Source: DEEWR Small Area Labour Market database and Treasury.
2
3
4
4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
Dispersion
Average unemployment rate
Sep-03 (start of mining boom)
Sep-98
Jun-11
Mar-08
The Macroeconomic and Structural Implications of a Once-in-a-Lifetime
Boom in the Terms of Trade
David Gruen24 November 2011
