The long and the short of it: the mis-attribution of economic transformation considered from the...

81
of It: The Mis- Attribution of Economic Transformation Considered from the Vantage of the Long Durée and What to Do About It Now Michael Blim Professor of Anthropology CUNY Graduate Center

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En el marco del congreso internacional de economía social celebrado en EOI Sevilla y en colaboración con Goldsmiths College, Michael Blim, CUNY Graduate Center, presenta de la larga duración en los procesos de industrialización, ilustrándolo con el caso de la región italiana de la Marche (Las Marcas). 27_05_2010

Transcript of The long and the short of it: the mis-attribution of economic transformation considered from the...

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The Long and the Short of It: The Mis-Attribution of Economic Transformation Considered

from the Vantageof the Long Durée and What to

Do About It Now

Michael Blim

Professor of Anthropology

CUNY Graduate Center

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Narrative and Meta-Narrative

• Case: Postwar Industrialization in Semi-Peripheral Region of Italy and Its Decline and Causes

• Meta-Narrative: Conjunctural or Structural Decline?

• The Enduring Significance and/or the Resurgence of the Deep Structures of the Long Durée? What to Do Now?

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Italy and Marche regionItaly and Marche regionItaly and Marche regionItaly and Marche regionItaly and Marche region

4

Italy and Marche region

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7

Territory and population

Area: 9.694,06 km2

Population: 1.553.063Density: 160 inhabitants/ km2

(Italian average density: 199 /Km2)

Provinces: 5 (Ancona, Ascoli Piceno, Fermo

Macerata, Pesaro Urbino)

Municipalities: 246Capital town: Ancona

(more than 100.000 inhabitants)

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Districts*

The Marche region has the highestdensity of districts (27), which have

a relevant impact on the regionaleconomy. They represent 81,8% ofthe labour local systems and occupy73,4% of the regional workers. In2005 their contribution to regional

exports was of 56%

Food Leather, shoesWood-furniture ShipbuildingTextile, Garments MechanicsMusical instruments Silver

* Italian definition to indicate a group of enterprises,usually small and medium enterprises, located in a limitedterritory and specialized in one or more phase of thesame production process.

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17

MainMain m manufacturing sectorssectors

ww mechanicalmechanical industryindustryww shipbuildingshipbuilding industryindustry

ww footwearfootwearww woodwood and and furniturefurniture

ww clothing-textileclothing-textileww foodfood

ww rubberrubber and and plasticsplastics

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Marche RegionMain Manufacturing Sectors

S e c t o r s F i r m s E m p l o y e e s E x p o r t 2 0 0 7 E x p o r t 2 0 0 8

M e c h a n i c s 7 , 0 6 1 7 2 , 0 9 6 5 , 8 0 4 4 , 9 7 2

L e a t h e r - F o o t w e a r 4 , 5 4 4 3 5 , 9 3 5 2 , 1 1 0 2 , 0 2 5

W o o d - F u r n i t u r e 3 , 4 1 1 2 6 , 8 3 5 7 6 6 7 2 2

C l o t h i n g - T e x t i l e s 2 , 3 9 7 1 8 , 9 4 3 6 5 5 5 8 9

F o o d 2 , 7 1 9 1 5 , 2 5 5 1 8 4 1 9 2

R u b b e r - P l a s t i c s 6 4 3 9 , 2 9 3 3 9 6 3 7 2

O t h e r s 2 , 7 6 6 2 2 , 7 4 9 2 , 5 4 3 1 , 7 8 4

m l n €

Source:Istat

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La Pronta Moda:

The “Ready to Wear” Shoe Industry in Today’s Italy

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A World Industry Growsin Marche Region Small Towns

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The Mezzadria Sharecropping System

From the Black Death (1347)

Through the Black Shirts and World War II

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From the Mezzadria to Part-Time Farming:

Countryside Savings

Supports Rapid Industrialization

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Meanwhile after Unification of Italy,

A Proto-Industry Emerges

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Old Shoes: Shoemaking before World War II

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The “Great Transformation:”Industrialization 1961+

From the Basement to the Factory

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The Results

• Household Income Above National Average

• Increased Life Expectancy

• Near-Universal Home Ownership

• Increased Educational Attainment

• GINI Index: 0.20 (Italy 0.36, USA 0.47, Sweden 0.25)

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Shoe Troubles Begin in 80s

• Long-Term Decline in Production• Long-Term Decline in Employment• Low Investment and Out-Sourcing to

Eastern Europe and China• Low Cost Competition from China, this

after Spain, Portugal, and Brazil• Euro Increases Costs and Eliminates Italy’s

Devaluation Option

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Value Added Per Manufacturing Worker, Firms With 1-99 Workers, 2005

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Marche Employment by Firm Size, 2005Compared with Italy and Central Italy

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Marche Shoe Production, 2001-1009(Compared with Italy Shoe Production)

(Solid Line = Marche)

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1980s Ideas for Growth At the Apex of the Boom

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Grow!

• Commercialize• Aim for High Fashion• Branding

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Industrial Winners Emerge

• Regional Restructuring: Larger, but not Large Firms Establish Footholds in World Markets through Branding and Marketing

• Small firms driven out of business or subordinated suppliers to bigger firms

• Medium sized survivors outsource to Balkans and license products to China

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• Tod’s Shoes• Euro 700 Million

Turnover• 3,000 employees

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Capital Deepening

• Investment in Machinery, Design, and Marketing

• Up the Value-Added Scale: Make Machines that Make Shoes

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Corporatism

• Build Business Community and Help Centers

• Territorial Concession for Business Expansion

• Maintain United Front: Political Consensus

• Lobby Central Government for Loans to Firms

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Celebrate Cultural Distinctiveness of Economic Success

• “Industrial Success without Dislocation”

• Emphasis on Small and Medium, Post-Fordist, Flexible Firms

• Revitalize Alfred Marshall’s Industrial Districts thesis

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Find Unique Historical Roots

• Underscore the Cross-Class Cooperation of the Mezzadria

• Celebrate Familism as System of Labor and Accumulation

• Praise Gemeinschaft Base of Regional Solidarity

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Shoe Decline Deepens, 2000-

• State Support for Unemployed and Under-employed for Shoes and Other “Traditional” Districts in Trouble

• Regional Industrial Policy Seeks New, High Technology Winners

• Policy Analysts Stress Spontaneous Redevelopment and Pluri-Activity Economic Districts via Accumulated “Social Capital”

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The Bedevilments of the Long Durée

• Italian Economic Decline

• Resurgence of Southern European Semi-Peripheral Status

• Declining European Competitiveness in a Wide Range of Manufacturing

• Shift of Productive Innovation to China

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Conjunctural Problems

• Gradual Disintegration of the Political Left since 1989

• Rapid Rise of Xenophobic Right via the Spread of the Northern League

• Weakening Support for Solidarity with Growing Immigrant Population (6% of Regional Population, 20% of industrial workers)

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Ways Forward

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Industrial Renewal and/or Transformation

• Governance Innovations such as Industrial District Planning Councils Working Poorly

• Private Investment Capital Scarce

• Italian Fiscal Crisis Shrinking Regional Budgets

• Region Frozen Out of Capital Markets

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A Green Economy?

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Some Green Progress

• Agricultural Conversion from Commodities to Organic and Specialty Products

• Value-Added Agro-Tourism and Territorial Dispersal Rather than High-Impact Coastal Expansion

• Regional Polytechnic University New Incubator of Knowledge Products

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Develop a Stronger Social Economy

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Slumping Social Economy

• Cooperative Movement Miniscule and Declining• Trade Unions Strong Only in State Sector• Italian and Regional Fiscal Crises Thwarting

Social Policy Innovations and Welfare Extensions• Political Class Unable to Leverage Corporatist

Sentiments and Organizational Structures• Red Region since 1990 now “Rose:” Center-Left

in Power and Significant Former Communist Forces out of Power

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Braudel and a Russian Doll Problem for Industry and Region

• Industrialization Changed the Forces but not the Relations of Production of its Petty Capitalist Mode of Accumulation

• Industry and Region Nested within Successive Sets of Structural Constraints that are of the Long Durée

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Long and Short-Term Outlook

• Long-Term Economy Delivered Income Equality without Help from Welfare State

• Private Capital Has Advantage in Shaping Economic Future: More Capital, More Qualified Labor

• Economic Reprise Likely to Increase Income Inequality


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