The Linkages between Population Dynamics and Sustainable Development Wolfgang Lutz UNDP/UNFPA/UNOPS...

The Linkages between Population Dynamics and Sustainable Development

Wolfgang Lutz

UNDP/UNFPA/UNOPS Joint Executive Board Special Event, 7 Sept 2011, NY

2

World Population from the year 1000 to 2100

Source of historical data: UN 2001

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

YEAR

WO

RL

D P

OP

UL

AT

ION

(IN

MIL

LIO

NS

)

Mortality under age 5 by mothers’ education (Source: DHS)

6Source: IIASA

low edu high edu

poor 50.3 30.4

rich 35.6 18.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

IMRIndia

2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

Population in Thousands

Ag

e G

rou

p

Republic of Korea-2000

No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary

Total Population: 46,429,319

FEMALESMALES

2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

Population in thousands

Ag

e (y

ea

rs)




FEMALESMALES

2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+


Ag

e G

rou

p




FEMALESMALES

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Po

pu

lati

on

in T

ho

us

an

ds

Years

Kenya - Proportion Aged 15-64 by Level of Educational Attainment in 1970-2050 - Global Education Trend (GET) Scenario


World Population ProgramIIASA 2011

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Po

pu

lati

on

in T

ho

us

an

ds

Years

Kenya - Proportion Aged 15-64 by Level of Educational Attainment in 1970-2050 - Constant Enrollment Number (CEN) Scenario


World Population ProgramIIASA 2011

India

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Popu

latio

n in

Tho

usan

ds

Years

India - Population Aged 15-64 by Level of Educational Attainment in 1970-2050 - Global Education Trend (GET) Scenario

No Education Primary Secondary TertiaryWorld Population ProogramIIASA 2009

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Popu

latio

n in

Tho

usan

ds

Years

India - Population Aged 15-64 by Level of Educational Attainment in 1970-2050 - Constant Enrollment Number (CEN) Scenario


Female Education is Key to reducing World Population Growth (Lutz and KC, Science 2011)

Different education scenarios assuming identical education-specific fertility rates

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

102000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Po

pu

lati

on

in

Bil

lio

ns

Years

FT

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Po

pu

lati

on

in

Bil

lio

ns

Years

CEN

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Po

pu

lati

on

in

Bil

lio

ns

Years

CER

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Po

pu

lati

on

in

Bil

lio

ns

Years

GET

0246810

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

GET

pop014 No_Educ Primary Secondary Tertiary

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Po

pu

lati

on

in

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Years

China - Population Aged 15-64 by Level of Educational Attainment in 1970-2050 - Global Education Trend (GET) Scenario


A policy focus on female education and basic health (including reproductive health) is a multiple-win strategy for the simultaneous reduction of

(a) mortality and disability (b) unintended pregnancies and desired family size and hence population growth, (c) poverty(d) corruption and bad institutions and enhance democracy(e) environmental impact at given level of income (f) vulnerability to environmental change

2001 IIASA / IUSSP / UNUGlobal Science Panel on Population & Evironment

Patronage: Maurice F. Strong and Nafis Sadik

Consensus Statement:

Population should be on the Johannesburg Agenda

“If we do not put the human population at the core of the sustainable development agenda, our efforts to improve human well-being and preserve the quality of the environment will fail. The Johannesburg Summit must heed the first principle of the 1992 Rio Declaration—that “human beings are at the centre of concern for sustainable development”—by taking full account of how population and society interact with the natural environment.“

In Cairo 1994 .. “The key recognition was that focusing on people—their rights, capabilities, and opportunities—would have multiple benefits for individuals, for society, and for their sustainable relationship with the environment.

Hence in Johannesburg, consideration of sustainable development policies must include population growth and distribution, mobility, differential vulnerability, and the empowerment of the people, especially women.“

The Linkages between Population Dynamics and Sustainable Development Wolfgang Lutz UNDP/UNFPA/UNOPS...

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