The Light Commercial Vehicle Surge in Europe – When · PDF fileThe Light Commercial...
Transcript of The Light Commercial Vehicle Surge in Europe – When · PDF fileThe Light Commercial...
The Light Commercial Vehicle Surgein Europe – When Will the Tide Break?
Grischa Meyer
Market Analyst, Light Commercial Vehicles
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 2
• Focus: Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) up to 6t GVW
• Defining the LCV Sector by Segment
• The Notion of ‛Light Trucks’
• Global Segment Sales Trends of LCVs
• Western Europe Segment Perspective of the LCV Sector
• What Are the Market Drivers in Western Europe?
• When Will the Tide Break?
• Questions
Presentation Outline
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 3
Western Europe Light Truck Sales (incl. SUV & MPV) Have Been Rising Strongly
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
CAR
LCV
Light Truck Sales by Official Registration Type (Thousand Units)
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 4
The LCV Sector and Its Segments Have More Than One Definition
GI-Type HCV
GI-Type Light
VehiclesGI-Type Cars
and LCVs combined
GI-Type: How a vehicle looks (Globally)
GI-Type LCV
GI-Type CAR
Off-Type: How a vehicle is registered (Locally)
<6t
>6t
<6t
>6t
Light Vehicles
OFF-Type Cars and
LCVs combined
EU USA Japan
CA
RL
CV
CA
RL
CV
CA
RL
CV
LC
VC
AR
KE
I-C
AR
S
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 5
The Notion “Light Trucks” Applies to All Vehicles That Look Like an LCV Plus All That Are Registered As Such
GI-Type HCV
GI-Type Light
VehiclesGI-Type Cars
and LCVs combined
GI-Type LCV
GI-Type CAR
<6t
>6t
<6t
>6t
Light Vehicles
OFF-Type Cars and
LCVs combined
EU USA Japan
CA
RL
CV
CA
RL
CV
CA
RL
CV
LC
VC
AR
KE
I-C
AR
S
SUVs, PUPs, larger MPVs
GI-Type: How a vehicle looks (Globally)
Off-Type: How a vehicle is registered (Locally)
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 6
• CDVs: Car Derived Vans (usually 0-2t)
• MVAN: Medium Vans (usually 2-3.5t)
• HVAN: Heavy Vans(usually 3.5-6t)
• MIC: Micro Vans(usually 0-2t)
• PUP: Pick-up(split into PUP-B, -C and -D)
For the Remainder of This Analysis, We Will Focus on “Commercial LCVs” in These Segments
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 7
CDV
10%MVAN
18%
HVAN
13%MIC
15%
PUP-B
1%
PUP-C
17%
PUP-D
26%
Key: PUP-D = Large Pickups, PUP-C = Medium Pickups, PUP-B = Small Pick-ups
In 2006, “Commercial LCV” Segments Were Dominated by PUP-D and MVAN (Global Sales)
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 8
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
PUP-C CDV MVAN
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
MVAN CDV PUP-C
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
PUP-C PUP-B CDV
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
MVAN CDV PUP-B
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
MIC HVAN PUP-C
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
PUP-D PUP-C HVAN
NorthAmerica
South
America
Western
Europe
EasternEurope
Middle East& Africa
Global C/LCV Sales Are Dominated by North America and Asia, Impacting Segmentation Structure
Asia
(Thousand Units)
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 9
Large Pick-ups Dominate Globally, But Micro Vans Show Biggest Growth Potential
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
PUP-D
PUP-C
MVAN
MIC
HVAN
CDV
PUP-B
Commercial LCV Sales (Thousand Units)
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 10
In Western Europe, MVAN, and CDV Segments Dominate Clearly
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
199
5
199
6
199
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199
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199
9
200
0
200
1
200
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200
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200
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200
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200
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201
0
201
1
201
2
MVAN
CDV
PUP-C
HVAN
MIC
PUP-B
PUP-D
Commercial LCV Sales (Thousand Units)
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 11
In Western Europe, the Top 3 Countries for “Commercial LCVs” Are France, U.K., and Germany
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
5001
995
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
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01
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02
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20
12
FRANCE GERMANY UNITED KINGDOM SPAIN ITALY
Thousand Units
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 12
2007 “Commercial LCV” Sales Reflect Market Cycles, with Italy Pushed by Scrapping Scheme
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
DIFF 2007
ITALY
NETHERLANDS
SWEDEN
IRELAND
NORWAY
BELGIUM
FRANCE
FINLAND
AUSTRIA
DENMARK
SWITZERLAND
GREECE
PORTUGAL
UNITED KINGDOM
GERMANY
SPAIN
Units
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 13
West European “Commercial LCV” Sales by
Manufacturer Group
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,0002002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
PSA
RENAULT
VW GROUP
FIAT GROUP
FORD
DAIMLER AG
GM
NISSAN
MITSUBISHI
TOYOTA
Units
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 14
West European “Commercial LCV” Sales by Brand
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,0002002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
RENAULT
VW
FORD
CITROEN
FIAT
MERCEDES-BENZ
PEUGEOT
OPEL
NISSAN
IVECO
Units
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 15
In the Segment Ranking, Eastern Europe Is Similar to the West
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
19
95
19
96
19
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19
98
19
99
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20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
MVAN
CDV
PUP-C
PUP-B
HVAN
PUP-D
MIC
Thousand Units
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 16
In Eastern Europe, the Top 3 Countries for “Commercial LCVs” Are Turkey, Russia, and Poland
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
5001
99
7
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
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04
20
05
20
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07
20
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20
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20
12
TURKEY RUSSIA POLAND
Thousand Units
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 17
• Short Term– (+) replacement of leading MVAN models
– (+) confidence indices are rising again since mid-2005
– (+) deep-grounded parc renewal due to imminent legislation
– (~) deteriorating economic growth in France and Spain
– (~) 99/00 transaction replacement demand cycle fades out
– (~) historically high fuel prices and tax burden
• Medium and Long Term – (-) Overall stagnating demand due to completely built-up car parc
– (+) Ongoing parc renewal before Euro-5 legislation
– (-) Technological pressure due to CO2 limitation regulations
“Commercial) LCV” sales are forecast to grow by just 1.6% in 2007
Car Substitutes are expected to expand by 8.6% in 2007
Total Light Truck forecast to grow by 4.1%
What Are the Market Drivers in the West European “Commercial LCV” Market?
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 18
When Will the Tide Break? In Germany, “Commercial LCV” Sales Projected to Decline by 3% in 2007
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100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Thousands
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Light Trucks LCV C/LCV
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 19
When Will the Tide Break? In France, “Commercial LCV” Sales Will Increase by Only 0.7% in 2007
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Thousands
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Light Trucks LCV C/LCV
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 20
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Thousands
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Light Trucks LCV C/LCV
When Will the Tide Break? In the U.K., “Commercial LCV” Sales Will Decrease by 3.6% in 2007
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 21
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Thousands
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Light Trucks LCV C/LCV
When Will the Tide Break? In Italy, However, “Commercial LCVs” Will Increase by 4.9% in 2007
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 22
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Thousands
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Light Trucks LCV C/LCV
When Will the Tide Break? In Spain, “Commercial LCV” Sales Will Decrease in the Next Years
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 23
• Segment – West European OEMs should think again:
– Micro Vans (MIC) might be worth taking another look at, especially for West European OEMs looking at Asia
– Heavy Vans (HVANs) will be growing, still with many coming from the Light Duty Truck range (3.5 – 7.5t GVW)
– Medium Pick-ups (PUP-C) is also an interesting growth opportunity mostly outside Europe, Thailand is important
– Large Pick-ups (PUP-D) is the segment to enter in the United States
• As market leaders show, it pays off to leverage:
– Home base competitive advantage
– Localised production
– Partnering and co-operation
– Manufacturing and distribution synergies
What Does This Mean for West European OEMs?
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 25
APPENDIX
Applicable Segment Definitions
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 26
Recent Top Best Selling
Segment CDV Models
Renault Kangoo
Citroen BerlingoPeugeot Partner
VW Caddy IIIFord Transit Connect
• Car-like ride/handling/fuel economy
• Typically have seating for 2 with ½–tonne payload, GVW <2t
• Were once all “proper” LCVs, but someOEMs market CDVs as CAR models, now often registered as CARs in official stats
• Recent trends suggest sub-segmentation into ½–tonne and ¾–tonne segments
� Size < 4,500mm
� Price Band = CHF < 25,000
� Note: We include “Combispace”
versions of LCVs as CDVs, even if
registered as CARs
Segment CDV: Small Van Models Derived from B-and C-Segment Car Platforms
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 27
Segment MVAN: Medium Van Models on Designated Light Commercial Vehicle Platforms
Recent Top Best Selling Segment MVAN Models
VW T5 (Transporter)
Ford TransitRenault Trafic
Fiat DucatoMB Vito and Sprinter
• Truck ride/handling/fuel economy
• Typically have seating for 2-9 with 1–1.5t payload, GVW 2–3.5t
• MVANs split in to panel vans (cargo vans),
chassis cab (pick-ups), passenger vans, and mini buses
� Size = 4,700 – 5,100mm
� Price Band = CHF 30,000 – 60,000
� Note: Some MVANS are also privately
used and then officially registered as
CAR under OFF-TYPE
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 28
Segment HVAN: Heavy Van Models Are on Designated Light Commercial Vehicle Platforms
Recent Top Best Selling Segment HVAN Models
Mercedes-Benz Sprinter
Renault Mascot
IVECO DailyVolkswagen LTNissan Eco-T
• Truck ride/handling/fuel economy
• Typically have seating for 2–9 with 1–2.5t payload, GVW 3.5–6t
• HVANs split in to panel vans (cargo vans), chassis cab (pick-ups), passenger vans and mini buses.
� Size = 4,800 – 5,600mm
� Price Band = CHF 40,000 – 60,000
� Note: GVW 6–7.5t is currently covered
by the Heavy Truck Report
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 29
Segment MIC : Small Van Models with Less than 600cc Dominate in Asia , But 1200cc in Western Europe
Recent Top Best Selling Segment MIC Models
Piago PorterDaihatsu Extol (was Hijet)
Aixam Mega Van
• Car-like ride/handling/fuel economy
• Typically have seating for 2 with½–tonne payload, GVW <2t
• In WE only as full LCVs in official stats, as no private use at all
� Size = 3,300 mm
� Price Band = CHF 20,000
� Note: Sales mainly in Italy and U.K.
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 30
Segment PUP-B : Sub-compact Pickup Models Derived Mainly from B-Segment Car Platforms
Recent Top Best Selling Segment PUP-B Models
Fiat Palio Strada
Dacia CamioneteIzhmash Izh
VW SavieroOpel Corsa/Chevrolet Montana
• Sub-compact Pickup can also be Microvan-based (Asia)
• More car-like ride/handling/fuel economy
• Typically have seating for 2 with ½–tonne payload pickup bed, GVW <2t
• Work horse tries to go into lifestyle direction to sell more. Popular in Brazil, which is also a key production location
� Size < 4500mm
� Price Bands = B Segment +10%
CHF < 26,000
� Note: PUP-A & PUP-E are thought
unnecessary at present
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 31
Segment PUP-C : Generally Built Body on Frame or Truck Based Models
Recent Top Best Selling Segment SUV-C Models
Ford Ranger
Toyota HiluxChevrolet S-10
Toyota TacomaIsuzu DMax
� Size 4501– 5100 mm
� Price Bands = C1/C2 Segment +15%
CHF 26,001- 36,000
� Note: PUP-A & PUP-E are thought
unnecessary at present
• Usually quite rugged with fair ground clearance. Most 2WD with 4WD option
• Single cab or Crew cab versions with1-tonne payload pickup bed
• Mostly utilitarian/commercial usage but some crossover into CAR sector in some markets (especially U.S. and Thailand)
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 32
Segment PUP-D : Generally Built Body on Frame or Truck Based Models
Recent Top Best Selling Segment PUP-D Models
Chevrolet Silverado
Ford F-Series
Dodge Ram
Ford Super-DutyGMC Sierra
• Generally purpose-built Body on
Frame/Truck-Based models
• Rugged single cab or crew cab versions
with large pickup bed
• Typically 4WD with good ground
clearance/off-road prowess
• Ride/handling/fuel economy compromised
as a result
� Size > 5000mm (big!)
� Price Bands = D1/D2 Segment +10%
CHF >36,301
� Note: PUP-A & PUP-E are thought
unnecessary at present