The Leaders and Laggers in the Slavic Triangle: Comparative Economic Performance of Belarus, Russia...
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The Leaders and Laggers in the Slavic Triangle:
Comparative Economic Performance of
Belarus, Russia and Ukraine
Vladimir Popov ([email protected])
Russia was leading in economic liberalization, while Belarus was lagging
Private sector share in GDP, %
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Russian FederationUkraineBelarus
But economic performance was more impressive in Belarus, although Russia has oil and gas
Fig. 2. GDP change in FSU economies, 1989 = 100%
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Central Europe
Uzbekistan
Belarus
Kazakhstan
Estonia
Turkmenistan
Azerbaijan
Latvia
Lithuania
Tajikistan
Russia
Kyrgyzstan
Armenia
Ukraine
Georgia
Moldova
By 2004 Belarus was among 5 FSU economies that exceeded the pre-recession 1989 level of output
GDP in 2004 as a % of 1989
PolandSlovenia
Slovakia
UzbekistanCzech Republic
TurkmenistanEstonia
BelarusKazakhstan
RomaniaArmenia
Croatia Latvia
BulgariaLithuania
RussiaKyrgyzstan
AzerbaijanTajikistan
UkraineGeorgia
Moldova
Hungary
40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
In 1989-2005, growth rates in Belarus were higher than in Russia and Ukraine for 10 years out of 16
GDP growth rates, %
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
BelarusRussian FederationUkraine
In 1990 PPP GDP per capita in Belarus was half of that in Russia and 60% of the level of Ukraine.
In 2004 it was higher than in Ukraine and reached 70% of the Russian level
PPP GDP per capita, current international dollars
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Russian FederationBelarusUkraine
Life expectancy in Belarus was generally higher than in Ukraine and Russia
Life expectancy at birth, years (1995-2002 - WDI, 2003 - HDR)
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
BelarusUkraineRussian Federation
Human Development Index (GDP per capita, life expectancy, education) was lower in Belarus than in Russia and Ukraine in 1990, but now is higher than in Ukraine and is nearly as
high as in Russia Human Development Index for China, Belarus, Russia and Ukraine
0,65
0,67
0,69
0,71
0,73
0,75
0,77
0,79
0,81
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Russia BelarusUkraineChinaCuba
There is only one former Soviet republic with which Russia has today a negative
migration balance (more people leave for B republic than come from B republic to
Russia)
• Yes, it is B e la r u s
It was argued that Belorussian economy is not restructuring, but investment is higher in Belarus
than in Russia and Ukraine Investment as a % of GDP
14
19
24
29
34
39
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
BelarusUkraineRussian Federation
It was argued that investment are supported by government subsidies and are used to finance inefficient projects, but energy
intensity of GDP fell faster than in Russia and Ukraine
Energy use per PPP GDP (kg of oil equivalent per constant 2000 PPP $)
0,45
0,5
0,55
0,6
0,65
0,7
0,75
0,8
0,85
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
UkraineRussian FederationBelarus
Belarus is biting the bullet - electric energy tariffs grow fast
Electricity tariffs, US cents per 1 kWh
0,3
0,8
1,3
1,8
2,3
2,8
3,3
3,8
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
BelarusRussian FederationUkraine
ODA to Belarus was high, but now is low
Aid per capita (current US$)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
UkraineRussian FederationBelarus
However, investment climate is good - FDI inflows are higher than in Ukraine and Russia
Cumulative FDI inflows in 1989-2004 per capita, US$
0
50
100
150
200
250
Belarus Ukraine Russian Federation
Why differences in performance?Answers are available from [email protected] on request
Shock Therapy versus Gradualism Reconsidered: Lessons from Transition Economies after 15 Years of Reforms. TIGER Working paper No. 82, 2005
Shock Therapy versus Gradualism: The End of the Debate (Explaining the Magnitude of the Transformational Recession). – Comparative Economic Studies, Vol. 42, Spring, 2000, No. 1, pp. 1-57.
Reform Strategies and Economic Performance of Russia’s Regions. – World Development, Vol. 29, No 5, 2001, pp. 865-86.
Democracy and Growth Reconsidered: Why Economic Performance of New Democracies Is Not Encouraging, co-authored with V. Polterovich)
Impact of initial conditions, institutions, liberalization:1989-96
Table 1. Regression of change in GDP in 1989-96 on initial conditions, policy factors, and rule of lawand democracy indices, robust estimatesDependent variable = log (1996 GDP as a % of 1989 GDP)For China - all indicators are for the period of 1979-86 or similarEquations, Number ofObservations / Variables
1,N=28
2,N=28
3,N=28
4,N=28
5,N=28
6,N=28
7,N=28
Constant 5.3*** 5.4*** 5.2*** 5.4*** 5.4*** 5.5*** 5.7***Distortions, % of GDPa -.005** -.005** -.003 -.006** -.007*** -.007*** -.007***1987 PPP GDP per capita, % of theUS level
-.009** -.006* -.007** -.007** -.009*** -.008***
-.008***
War dummyb -.19c -.36*** -.37*** -.45***Decline in government revenues asa % of GDP from 1989-91 to 1993-96
-.011*** -.011***
-.011***
Liberalization index .05 -.02 .03Log (Inflation, % a year, 1990-95,geometric average)
-.16*** -.20*** -.18*** -.17*** -.13*** -.13*** -.14***
Rule of law index, average for1989-97, %
.008***
Democracy index, average for1990-98, %
-.005***
-.003**
Ratio of the rule of law todemocracy index
.07*** .07*** .06*** .05*** .05***
Adjusted R2, % 82 83 83 85 91 91 90
*, **, *** - Significant at 1, 5 and 10% level respectively.aCumulative measure of distortions as a % of GDP equal to the sum of defense expenditure (minus 3%regarded as the 'normal' level), deviations in industrial structure and trade openness from the 'normal' level,the share of heavily distorted trade (among the FSU republics) and lightly distorted trade (with socialistcountries) taken with a 33% weight – see (Popov, 2000) for details.bEquals 1 for Armenia, Azerbaijan, Croatia, Georgia, Macedonia, and Tajikistan and 0 for all othercountries.c Significant at 13% level.
Best performance: low distortions, strong institutionsWorst performance: high distortions, weak institutions
INITIAL CONDITIONS (DISTORTIONS) AND INSTITUTIONS –CLASSIFICATION OF COUNTRIES
DISTORTIONSINSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY
LOW HIGH
HIGH CHINA,VIETNAM
EASTERNEUROPE
LOW ALBANIA,MONGOLIA
FSU
Belarus had very distorted economy before transition, but managed to avoid the collapse of
the institutional capacity of the state
INITIAL CONDITIONS (DISTORTIONS) AND INSTITUTIONS –CLASSIFICATION OF COUNTRIES
DISTORTIONSINSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY
LOW HIGH
HIGH CHINA,VIETNAM
BELARUS
LOW RUSSIA UKRAINE
Government revenues and expenditure declined in virtually all transition economies
Рис. 4. Доходы консолидированных бюджетов в % к ВВП
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
ЦентральнаяЕвропа
Юго-ВосточнаяЕвропаПрибалтика
Россия
СредняяАзия
Закавказье
Китай
Expenditure for “ordinary government” did not decline in Central Europe and in China...
Fig. 3. Government expenditure, % of GDP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1985 1989 1995 1978 1985 1994 1989 1996
Debt serviceDefenceSubsidiesInvestment"Ordinary government"
POLAND CHINA USSR/ RUSSIA
...And in Belarus General (consolidated) government revenues (% of GDP)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
BelarusRussian FederationUkraine
Government purchases of goods and services (i.e. government expenditure minus transfers)
were relatively high in Belarus
General government final consumption expenditure without defense expenditure (% of GDP)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
BelarusUkraineRussian Federation
For instance, government expenditure on education Public spending on education, total (% of GDP)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
BelarusUkraineRussian Federation
Conclusions
• The impact of the speed of liberalization at the initial stage of transition, i.e. during the transformational recession, appears to be negative, if any.
• The reason for the negative impact is most probably associated with limited ability of the economy to adjust to new price ratios
Conclusions• Differences in performance during transition
depend strongly on the initial conditions:
• The higher the distortions (militarization, over-industrialization, "under-openness" of the economy and the share of perverted trade flows), the worse is the performance
• The higher was GDP per capita before transition, the greater were distortions embodied in fixed capital stock, the more difficult it was to overcome these distortions to achieve growth
Conclusions
Fig. 5. Hypothetical trajectories of output (Year "0" = 100%) assuming gradual and instant liberalization
80%85%90%95%
100%105%110%115%120%125%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Years
Out
put,
Year
"0"
= 1
00%
Reduction ofoutput in aNC sector at10% annually
Reduction ofoutput in aNC sector at30% annually
Reduction ofoutput in aNC sector at100%annually
Assumptions: size of non-competitive sector (NC) in the initial year = 20% of total output; net investment (s) = 10% of total output;
marginal capital productivity, output increase per unit of net investment (a) = 1/3.
Conclusions• At the recovery stage liberalization starts to affect
growth positively, whereas the impact of pre-transition distortions disappears. Institutional capacity and macroeconomic policy continue to be important prerequisites for successful performance.
• Liberalization at the recovery stage influences performance positively because it creates market stimuli without causing rapid collapse of output of inefficient industries, which cannot be compensated fully by the rise of efficient industries due to investment constraints.