The Latino Vote in Virginia by Dr. Xavier Medina Vidal

The La'no Vote in Virginia

D. Xavier Medina Vidal, Ph.D. Department of Poli7cal Science

VACOLAO, Arlington, VA – 24 Oct 2014


Virginia Demographics

… Cour7ng the La7no Vote & GOTV

… Virginia’s La7no Vote in 2012


…

Why ethnic media?

!

! Population!2010!

Percent!of!Population!

2010!

Percent!Increase!2000!42010!

Eligible!Voters!2013*!

Percent!Eligible!2013*!

Pct.!Pop.!Projection!2020**!Race!&!Ethnicity!

Not$Hispanic/Latino$ 7,369,199$ 92.1$ 9.2$ 5,506,600$ 94.8$ 88.9$White$ 5,486,852$ 68.6$ 7.2$ 4,077,055$ 70.2$ 65.3$African$American$ 1,551,399$ 19.0$ 11.6$ 1,108,700$ 19.1$ 19.0$Hispanic$or$Latino$ 631,825$ 7.9$ 91.7$ 226,225$ 3.9$ 11.1$Asian$American$ 439,890$ 5.5$ 68.5$ 225,050$ 3.9$ 6.9$American$Indian$$ 29,225$ 0.4$ 38.0$ 14,845$ 0.3$ CCC$Nat.$Hawaiian,$P.I.$ 5,980$ 0.1$ 51.5$ 3,355$ 0.1$ CCC$Source:(Census(2010,(*2012(ACS(Estimates,(**Weldon(Cooper(Center(for(Public(Service(

$ $!



THE LATINO ELECTORATE U.S. Virginia

Eligible Voters who are Hispanic/La7no 21.5 M 226 K

Share of Eligible Voters 10.0% 3.9%

Share of La7no Popula7on Eligible to Vote 42.4% 33.9%

www.pewhispanic.org

Immigra'on, Iden'ty Poli'cs, and the La'no Vote in Virginia





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… Cour'ng the La'no Vote & GOTV



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Cour'ng the La'no Vote & GOTV

hVp://www.pewhispanic.org/

Cour'ng the La'no Vote & GOTV

Why court the La'no/Hispanic vote?

Why court the La'no/Hispanic vote?

Strong Growth: 30% popula7on (130 million) by 2050

2 million more La7nos voted in 2012 than in 2008

Over 12 million La7nos cast a ballot in 2012 Not a “captured” vote:

Support both Republican and Democra7c par7es Presence in “swing states”:

Florida, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia

GOTV: What works for La'nos?

Harold Gosnell (1927) Ge#ng-‐Out-‐The-‐Vote: An Experiment in the S8mula8on of Vo8ng

•  Chicago •  Strong party organiza7ons •  Contact people in their na7ve language (Polish, German, Czech immigrants)

GOTV: What works for La'nos?

Lisa García Bedolla and Melissa Michelson (2012) Mobilizing Inclusion: Transforming the Electorate Through Get-‐Out-‐The-‐Vote Campaigns

•  Personal, direct contact •  A second contact •  Tailoring messages to the individual voter •  The messenger maVers

– Neighbors, community leaders



… Cour'ng the La'no Vote & GOTV



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… Virginia’s La'no Vote in 2012


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Virginia’s La'no Vote in 2012

Democrats* Republicans* Community*organiza6ons*

An*unknown*source*

0*

10*

20*

30*

40*

50*

Hispanics*Contacted*During*the*2012*Campaign*to*Register*to*Vote*or*Get*Out*To*Vote*

(Percent)*

All*U.S.*Hispanics*(42*%*contacted)* Virginia*Hispanics*(49*%*contacted)*


0" 5" 10" 15" 20" 25" 30" 35" 40" 45"

To"support"Democrats"

To"support"Republicans"

To"support"the"La;no/Hispanic"community"

For"some"other"reason"

Not"sure"

Mo;va;on"for"Vo;ng"in"2012"(Percent)"

Virginia"Hispanics" All"U.S."Hispanics"

Hispanic Influence on the 2012 U.S. Senate Race in Virginia

Hispanic Support for Kaine: 70% (LEE Poll) 50 % Hispanic Turnout: 77 % Hispanic Turnout:

Hispanic Pop. (%)

Hispanic Vo7ng-‐Age Pop.

Hispanic Eligible Voters

Total Vote for Kaine (52.9%)

Total Vote for Allen (47.0%)

Margin Kaine -‐ Allen

Hispanic Vote for Kaine

Share of Kaine Margin

(%)

Hispanic Vote for Kaine

Share of Kaine Margin (%)

Virginia 8.2 426,857 214,000 2,010,067 1,785,542 224,525 74,900 33.4 115,346 51.4

High-‐Density Hispanic Locali3es

Manassas Park City 33.5 3,003 1,744 2,829 1,752 1,077 610 56.7 940 87.3 Manassas City 31.5 7,356 4,208 8,322 6,550 1,772 1,473 83.1 2,268 128.0 Prince William County 20.5 52,354 29,153 102,859 74,809 28,050 10,203 36.4 15,713 56.0 Alexandria City 16.4 16,867 8,061 52,502 19,498 33,004 2,821 8.5 4,345 13.2 Fairfax City 16.2 2,595 1,238 6,728 4,682 2,046 433 21.2 667 32.6 Harrisonburg City 16.2 5,066 2,755 8,507 6,681 1,826 964 52.8 1,485 81.3 Fairfax County 15.8 118,944 59,121 319,748 201,414 118,334 20,692 17.5 31,866 26.9 Winchester City 15.8 2,536 1,428 5,292 4,816 476 500 105.0 770 161.7 Arlington County 15.2 24,100 11,150 82,689 32,807 49,882 3,902 6,010 12.0 Galax City 13.5 553 320 981 1,309 -‐328 112 -‐-‐-‐ 173 -‐-‐-‐ Loudoun County 12.6 25,467 13,886 83,383 74,325 9,058 4,860 53.7 7,485 82.6 Fredericksburg City 11.0 1,763 960 7,233 3,957 3,276 336 10.3 518 15.8 Stafford County 9.5 7,253 4,247 27,820 31,997 -‐4,177 1,487 -‐-‐-‐ 2,289 -‐-‐-‐ Falls Church City 9.1 771 393 5,147 2,051 3,096 137 4.4 212 6.8 Culpeper County 8.9 2,614 1,430 8,457 11,743 -‐3,286 501 -‐-‐-‐ 771 -‐-‐-‐ Sources:

2010 Census Summary File, Virginia State Board of Elec3ons, ImpreMedia/La3no Decisions Weekly Tracking Poll (Week 11), and 2012 La3no Elec3on Eve Poll

Hispanic Influence on the 2012 Presiden7al Race in Virginia

Hispanic Support for Obama: 66% (LEE Poll) 50 % Hispanic Turnout: 77 % Hispanic Turnout:

Hispanic Pop. (%)

Hispanic Vo7ng-‐Age Pop.

Hispanic Eligible Voters

Total Vote for Obama (51.2%)

Total Vote for Romney (47.3%)

Margin (Obama -‐ Romney)

Hispanic Vote for Obama

Share of Obama

Margin (%)

Hispanic Vote for Obama

Share of Obama

Margin (%)

Virginia 8.2 426,857 214,000 1,971,820 1,822,522 149,298 70,620 47.3 108,755 72.8 High-‐Density Hispanic

Locali3es Manassas Park City 33.5 3,003 1,744 2,879 1,699 1,180 576 48.8 886 75.1 Manassas City 31.5 7,356 4,208 8,478 6,463 2,015 1,389 68.9 2,139 106.1 Prince William County 20.5 52,354 29,153 103,331 74,458 28,873 9,620 33.3 14,815 51.3 Alexandria City 16.4 16,867 8,061 52,199 20,249 31,950 2,660 8.3 4,097 12.8 Fairfax City 16.2 2,595 1,238 6,651 4,775 1,876 409 21.8 629 33.5 Harrisonburg City 16.2 5,066 2,755 8,654 6,565 2,089 909 43.5 1,400 67.0 Fairfax County 15.8 118,944 59,121 315,273 206,773 108,500 19,510 18.0 30,045 27.7 Winchester City 15.8 2,536 1,428 5,094 4,946 148 471 318.3 726 490.2 Arlington County 15.2 24,100 11,150 81,269 34,474 46,795 3,679 7.9 5,666 12.1 Galax City 13.5 553 320 900 1,332 -‐432 106 -‐-‐-‐ 163 -‐-‐-‐ Loudoun County 12.6 25,467 13,886 82,479 75,292 7,187 4,582 63.8 7,057 98.2 Fredericksburg City 11.0 1,763 960 7,131 4,060 3,071 317 10.3 488 15.9 Stafford County 9.5 7,253 4,247 27,182 32,480 -‐5,298 1,402 -‐-‐-‐ 2,158 -‐-‐-‐ Falls Church City 9.1 771 393 5,015 2,147 2,868 130 4.5 200 7.0 Culpeper County 8.9 2,614 1,430 8,285 11,580 -‐3,295 472 -‐-‐-‐ 727 -‐-‐-‐ Sources:

2010 Census Summary File, Virginia State Board of Elec3ons, ImpreMedia/La3no Decisions Weekly Tracking Poll (Week 11), and 2012 La3no Elec3on Eve Poll






…

PFAW/AV/La7no Decisions Elec7on Eve Poll

•  400 Hispanic and 386 Asian American extremely likely to vote in the 2013 Virginia gubernatorial elec7on

•  Mul7lingual interviews •  November 1 to November 4, 2013 •  Cell and landline balanced sample •  MOE: +/-‐ 4.9 %

16% (27%)

15.8% (14.4%)

10% (1.3%)

8.1% (19.5%)7.3% (2.3%)6.3% (4.8%)5.5% (6%)

4.7% (2.3%)

3.4% (5.3%)

22.8%

Mexico Puerto RicoSpain El SalvadorCuba PeruBolivia ColumbiaGuatemala Other

2013 Virginia Election Eve Poll (Latino Decisions)

Percent of Popluation in Parentheses (2006-2010 Census Estimates)VA Latino Voters in 2013 by National Origin Group


23.8%

43.9%

8.9%

11.5%

7.8%2.6%

6.8%18.0%

13.4%

5.6%

14.3%

34.8%

Hispanics/Latinos Asian Americans

Economy/Jobs ImmigrationHealth EducationWar HousingEnergy Race RelationsTaxes EnvironmentOther

Top Issue Concerns Among Virginia's Hispanic and Asian Voters

Source: Latino Decisions PFAW/AV 2013 Virginia Gubernatorial Election Eve Poll

Immigra7on Poli7cs Rhetoric

60.1%

33.4%

3.5% 3.0%

51.5%

31.0%

3.6% 13.9%

Hispanics/Latinos Asian Americans

McAuliffe (D) Cuccinelli (R)Sarvis (L) Undecided

Vote Preference in Virginia 2013 Gubernatorial Election

42.0%

50.0%

4.6% 3.4%

40.7%

42.3%

5.0% 12.0%

Hispanic (67% have voted for GOP) Asian (76% have voted for GOP)

McAuliffe (D) Cuccinelli (R)Sarvis (L) Undecided

Vote Preference Among Voters Who Have Voted for GOP in the Past

Some Lessons from the 2013 Gubernatorial Elec'on

•  For La7no voters, vo7ng to support the La7no community is in7mately 7ed to immigra7on poli7cs.

•  Ethnic media’s pluralizing and accultura7on func7ons facilitate group-‐conscious vo7ng for both La7no and Asian American voters.

•  Immigra7on poli7cs are a significant informer of Democra7c Party support for Hispanics.

•  Group consciousness mo7vates both La7no and Asian American voters to support Democrats.

La'no Voters (U.S.) in 2014

La7no Decisions

Summary: The La'no Vote in Virginia

•  A diverse La7no popula7on and electorate

•  Personal, direct contact mobilizes La7no voters

•  La7nos are “group conscious” voters

•  La7nos make meaningful contribu7ons to elec7on outcomes

Thank you.

D. Xavier Medina Vidal, Ph.D.

[email protected]

The Latino Vote in Virginia by Dr. Xavier Medina Vidal

Government & Nonprofit

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