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The latest climate research

Clare Downing

Climate science: Karsten Haustein

DATE: OCTOBER 2019

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Content & Research areas

• Weather and Impacts• Climate science• Adaptation solutions

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Weather and Impacts

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High Temperatures & Heat waves

• My porch recorded 38.2oc this year – very high temperatures

• 2018 Britain and Ireland heat wave - June, July, August

• Impacts: – widespread drought– hosepipe bans– crop failures– wildfires e.g. Saddleworth Moor– health – increased deaths in elderly and

vulnerable (respiratory disorders) • Opportunities: increased tourism as people

holidayed in UK, horticulture (fruit) not affected, Archaeological discoveries (drone photos)

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Heavy rainfall and flooding

• November 2015 to January 2016 - wettest three-month period recorded dating back to 1910

• December 2015 - both wettest &, on average, warmest on record for the UK

• Major storms – Desmond - estimated insurance bill of more than £1.3bn

• Natural variability from year to year makes it hard to attribute the trend towards higher river flows in the last five decades to climate change, but recent studies do point towards manmade global warming playing a role in recent floods

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/storm-desmond

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Climate Science

• The development of observation-based climate datasets

• the use of these datasets in climate change monitoring and attribution and

• the use of Earth system models to make future long-term predictions

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Factors being monitored and direction of trend

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Observed long-term warming

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How do we know its us?

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How do we know that its ALL us?

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Observed temperature difference – 1850s

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Observed temperature difference between 1850 to 2018 (last 8 years)

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Modelled version –temperature difference

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Net Zero Conference - Key MessagesSeptember 2019

• For every 10 years we delay action we add another 0.25 degrees of warming (Prof. Myles Allen)

• Currently at 1.1 degree of warming • Hence in 10-15 years we will have reached 1.50

• Well within our life times and major implications for our children

• Extinction Rebellion are correct in that by declaring an emergency now there is potential to NOT reach the 1.5

https://www.carbonbrief.org/highlights-the-net-zero-climate-change-conference-oxford

https://www.carbonbrief.org/highlights-the-net-zero-climate-change-conference-oxford

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Extreme Event Attribution

How have the odds for a certain extreme event occurring changed?

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World Weather Attribution

• 2019 heatwave - all-time temperature records broken in Europe – likelihood of heatwave of same intensity 10 times more frequently today than a century ago

• Storm Desmond analysis - extreme regional rainfall return period of about five years (20% chance in any given year), and roughly 60% more likely due to human-caused climate change.

• https://www.worldweatherattribution.org

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/

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Hurricane Harvey –Record rainfall linked to climate change

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Additional deaths vs temperature

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Adaptation Solutions

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Adaptation and Resilience in the Context of Change network (ARCC) https://www.arcc-network.org.uk/

• BIOPICCC - methodology for selecting adaptation strategies for resilient health and social care systems

• 4M - measurement, modelling, mapping and management of the city of Leicester, examining buildings, transport and carbon emissions

• SCORCHIO - Designing urban spaces and buildings to improve sustainability and quality of life in a warmer world

• CREW - developed a set of tools to improve the capacity of local communities to cope with the impacts of extreme weather events

• Street mobility and network accessibility - is developing a suite of tools for overcoming barriers to walking

https://www.arcc-network.org.uk/

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Climate Just

• Free map-based web tool for public service providers

• Helps to identify who is vulnerable to climate change and fuel poverty and why

https://www.climatejust.org.uk/welcome-climate-just-web-tool

• Case Studies available e.g . Staffordshirehttps://www.climatejust.org.uk/case-studies/applying-climate-just-staffordshire

https://www.climatejust.org.uk/case-studies/applying-climate-just-staffordshirehttps://www.climatejust.org.uk/case-studies/applying-climate-just-staffordshire

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Planning needs to consider a wide range of drivers

Sustainable Development

Disaster Risk Reduction Adaptation

Measures

Mitigation

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Opportunity to join drivers together

• Need to tackle cause (mitigation) and effects (adaptation) of climate change at the same time with measures that are coordinated together

• Look for co-benefits E.g. Green spaces = sinks for GHGs, reservoir for flooding, shading to reduce temperatures, lower air pollution, increased biodiversity, recreation (social and health wellbeing), safe cycling route

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• Research focus:reducing energy demand, improving energy efficiency and understanding demand-side flexibility

Recent publication: Shifting the focus report- covers Buildings, Industry, Transport, and touches on Equality and justice and co-benefits

Quote: “Government must develop specific roles, powers and guidance for local authorities to enable them to make high quality, locally sensitive decisions to drive energy demand change”

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Hierarchy of emissions reduction options by cost and feasibility1. Savings by using less – demand for

energy, resources, food, car/air miles: NOW

2. Energy efficient technologies – lighting, white goods, electric vehicles: NOW

3. Decarbonisation – bigger shifts e.g. replace boilers with heat pumps, minimise resource use through supply chain: 5-10 years

4. Negative emissions e.g. restoring ecosystems, carbon capture and storage: 10-20 years

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Thank you

clare.downing@ouce.ox.ac.uk

mailto:clare.downing@ouce.ox.ac.uk

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Our current warming trajectoryIPCC Special Report on 1.5°C warming

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Historic temperatures (Ice cores, fossils, proxys)

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Decision making under UncertaintyAdaptation Pathways• Series of actions that can be introduced to address changing

circumstances and lessons learnt – alternative pathways linked to specific thresholds with flexibility to change pathways

• Implementing what can be supported now and then monitoring, evaluation and learning to allow for further adaptation as and when appropriate

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Mitigation and Adaptation

The latest climate researchContent & Research areasWeather and ImpactsHigh Temperatures & Heat wavesHeavy rainfall and floodingClimate ScienceFactors being monitored and direction of trend Observed long-term warmingHow do we know its us?How do we know that its ALL us?Observed temperature difference – 1850sObserved temperature difference between 1850 to 2018 (last 8 years)Modelled version –temperature differenceNet Zero Conference - Key Messages�September 2019Extreme Event AttributionWorld Weather AttributionHurricane Harvey – Record rainfall linked to climate change Additional deaths vs temperatureAdaptation SolutionsAdaptation and Resilience in the Context of Change network (ARCC) �https://www.arcc-network.org.uk/ �Climate JustPlanning needs to consider a wide range of driversOpportunity to join drivers togetherResearch focus:� reducing energy demand, �improving energy efficiency and �understanding demand-side flexibility��Recent publication: Shifting the focus report- covers Buildings, Industry, Transport, and touches on Equality and justice and co-benefits ��Quote: “Government must develop specific roles, powers and guidance for local authorities to enable them to make high quality, locally sensitive decisions to drive energy demand change”�Hierarchy of emissions reduction options by cost and feasibilitySlide Number 26Our current warming trajectory�IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C warmingHistoric temperatures �(Ice cores, fossils, proxys) Decision making under UncertaintyMitigation and Adaptation