The Large-Scale Climate Datasets Ghassem R. Asrar Director, World Climate Research Programme Genva,...
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Transcript of The Large-Scale Climate Datasets Ghassem R. Asrar Director, World Climate Research Programme Genva,...
The Large-Scale Climate Datasets
Ghassem R. AsrarDirector, World Climate Research Programme
Genva, Switzerland
Outline
• WCRP at a glance
• Earth/climate system partnerships
• Large scale climate data sets
• Future plans & priorities
• Summary
The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), was established at the first
World Climate Conference in 1979, and it is sponsored jointly by the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO), the International Council for Science
(ICSU), and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of
UNESCO
The major objectives of the WCRP are to:
• Determine the predictability of climate, and
• Determine the effect of human activities on climate
“…for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society.”
Mission & ObjectivesMission & Objectives
A 10-year initiative of international scientific collaboration on Earth system research led by ICSU and Belmont Forum
Future Earth:Research for Global Sustainability
SMOS
IKONOS
QuickBird
SPIN-2SPOT 4, 5
EROS A1
Envisat
Aura/Aqua/Terra
Grace
QuikScat
Sage
TRMM
Toms-EP
UARSLandsat 7
SORCE
ACRIMSAT
SeaWiFS
ERBS
Orbview 2, 3
Radarsat
DMC
SAC-C
SAC-D/Aquarius
COSMO-SkyMed
© GEO Secretariat
GOSAT
Pleiades
TerraSAR-X
SeaWinds
Jason
ALOS
CBERS
International Earth Observing Systems
International Ocean Observing Systems
Temperature profiles from merchant ships
2002
ARGO installation
2003
Nit
rogen
flow
Agriculturalland use
Oce
an
acid
ity
Fres
hwat
er
cons
umpt
ion
Phos
phor
us
flow
Climate
Change
Atmospheric
aerosol load
Chemical
pollution
Ozone depletion
Biodiversity
loss ?
?
50-60
70-80
Latest data
90-00
Pre-Ind.
?
??
?
WCRP Implementation WCRP Implementation PlanPlan
• The Interdisciplinary Nature of Climate Science – Atmosphere, Oceans and Climate– Cryosphere and Climate – Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate – Water, Energy and Climate
• Meeting the Information Needs of Society Activities in Support of Key Deliverables– Decadal Climate Variability, Predictability and Prediction– Sea-Level Variability and Change – Climate/Weather Extremes– Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics– Centennial Climate Change Projections – Seasonal Climate Prediction
• Capabilities in Support of WCRP Integrating Themes – Climate-Quality Data Sets and Analyses – A New Generation of Climate/Earth System Models – Next Generation of Climate Experts: Developing Capacity Regionally and Globally
A network of several thousands scientists contributing on voluntary basis.
Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment – CORDEX IPCC AR5
Climate-system Historical Forecast Project - CHFP
Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 – CMIP5 IPCC AR5
Chemistry-Climate Model Validation
Arctic
Antarctic
Africa
Example: Major Climate Prediction & Example: Major Climate Prediction & Projection ExperimentsProjection Experiments
Improving Climate Projections: Improving Climate Projections: CMIP-5CMIP-5
Global-mean near-surface temperature anomalies in simulations with all natural and anthropogenic forcings (red line), and with the anthropogenic aerosol forcing alone (black line), in one of the CMIP5 models. (from Boucher et al, 2011)
Permissible emissions as simulated by a CMIP5 model (HadGEM2-ES) compared with observed CO2 emissions for the historical period and those projected for the RCP scenarios (OBS/IAMs) (from Friedlingstein and Jones, 2011)
5-9 March 2012 – CMIP-5 Analysis Workshop
Assessment of Assessment of Ozone Ozone
Depletion/RecoveDepletion/Recovery-2010ry-2010
The shaded areas in panels (c)-(e) came from CCMVal based on sophisticated statistical analysis of model variability and trends.
In past Assessments, estimates of model uncertainties were limited!
Scientific AssessmentsScientific Assessments
Skillful Regional Climate Information
CORDEX•12 domains with a resolution of 0.44° (approx. 50x50km²)•First Focus on Africa•High resolution ~0.11°x0.11° for Europe (by some institutions)
July to September mean precipitation for 1998-2008. Four observational (top row), accumulated 12-24 hour forecast from ERA-Interim reanalysis, the ensemble mean and individual Regional Climate Models
Courtesy of C. Jones
Intercomparison of Models-Intercomparison of Models-ObservationsObservations
Coordinated with CMIP5 are parallel efforts to collect and make available observationally-based products
Obs4MIPs
Obs4MIPs is a pilot effort to improve the connection between data experts and scientists involved in climate model evaluation. It is closely aligned with CMIP5, with encouragement from the WGCM and WGNE. NASA and the U.S. DOE have initiated the project with significant contributions of appropriate NASA products. An overarching goal is to enable other data communities to contribute data to Obs4MIPs.
To enhance access to re-analyses products, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is hosting a subset of the primary reanalysis data on the ESGF Portal in a similar format to the CMIP5 archive.
This portal is managed by the NASA Center for ClimateSimulation (NCCS). Participating organizations and products are;
• NASA-GSFC-GMAO/ MERRA• NOAA-NCEP/ CFSR• ECMWF/ ECMWF – Interim• JMA/ JRA – 25• NOAA ESRL - CIRES/ 20CR
Reanalysis of Observations
CMIP5 and CORDEX products are being served via a distributed archive managed by the
PCMDI-led Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)
• Avoid single point failure
• Replication of heavily-used datasets
• Data can be made available readily and can be corrected locally.
Data Nodes (at major international climate research centers)
Node 1
Node 2
Node 3
Node 4
Node 5
Data PortalLocal copy of heavily-used data
Model & expt. documentation
Data Users (climate model analysts worldwide)
Three Primary CMIP5 Data Portals)
PCMDI Data Portal
DKRZ Data Portal
BADC Data Portal
Three Primary Data Portals)
Data Nodes (at major international climate research centers)
Earth System Grid FederationEarth System Grid Federation
CMIP5 participating groups (20+ groups; ~40 models).
2.3Pbytes of model output expected - 100 times greater than CMIP3.
Model outputs will be accessed through the Earth System Grid - data will be served by federated centers around the world and will appear to be a single PCMDI archive.
The archive is available to all users, except commercial applications..
Earth System Grid Federation: Unprecedented International Coordination
WCRP Grand Science WCRP Grand Science ChallengesChallenges
• Provision of skillful regional climate information (includes decadal and polar predictability)
• Regional Sea-Level Variability and Change
• Cryosphere response to climate change (including ice sheets, water resources, permafrost and carbon)
• The interactions of clouds, aerosols, precipitation, and radiation and their contributions to climate sensitivity
• Past and future changes in water availability (with connections to water security and hydrological cycle)
• The prediction and attribution of extreme events
Stakeholders and User Perspective
• Urgent need for “actionable” climate information based on sound science
• The need for “symbiotic” relationship between providers and users of climate information to ensure climate information is timely, accessible, easy to understand
• Urgent need for training and development of “next generation” of scientists and decision makers who pursue and promote the use of actionable climate/environmental information
1day 1week 1month 1season 1year 1 decade 1 century
Seamless Prediction of Earth System
FrontsConvec systems
Cyclones
Blocks
MJO
NAO
QBO PDO
ENSO AMO
atmosphere
ocean
region global
skin upper full
land moisture vegetation
atmospheric chemistry
Ice sheets
Courtesy of UK MetOffice
Positive NAO phase Negative NAO phase
Month – Seasons: The North Atlantic Oscillation
3-month running mean of NAO index 1950-date
1950
1967
1984
2001
Autocorrelation
Lag30d
Natural Decadal Variability
Knight et al 2005, Parker et al 2007
Model
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Observation
AtlanticMultidecadal Oscillation
June 1991 June 2001June 1995
Heat in top 100m ocean: Improvement in Skill from initialisation
Prediction Skill on 1-10 Year Time-scale
1-2y 3-4y 5-6y
Hindcast predictions of 500m heat content in Atlantic sub-polar gyre
UK JWCRP
Courtesy of UK MetOffice
Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)
Two Major Thrusts:•Building Research Capacity in Developing Regions•Empower Next Generation of Climate Scientists
Plans and Priorities:•Engaging regional experts in climate research, modeling analysis•Promoting scientific exchange•Train the Trainers•Summer Schools•Fellowships and Scholarships•Mentoring Programs
Opportunities and Challenges;Quantify and communicate uncertainties in climate change information/knowledge;
• Develop seamless regional and intera-seasonal to inter-annual, and decadal climate prediction/projection;
• Support development of climate information for adaptation planning, mitigation policies, and assessing risks of climate variability and change;
• Support development, intercomparing and dcoumenting large scale data sets;
• Promote and enable timely, reliable, and easy to access climate information and knowledge; and
• Support education, training and development of next generation of climate experts and regional networks.
Summary