The Kearney ReportReport · 3rd Quarter 2013 . KearneyRealty.com 2 The Kearney ReportReport If you...

The The The The Kearney Kearney Kearney Kearney ReportReportReportReport

Boulder County Real Estate

3rd Quarter 2013

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If you have been reading this report for quite some time you will know that there is some seasonality in the

local real estate market. Usually we see the fewest number of sales in December and January, sales peak in

June or July and the rest of the year falls into a neat and clean bell curve (see the attached Chart 1). Even

though it is true that almost every year fits this pattern some years we see variation for different reasons. For

example, in 2010 the Federal Government gave first time homebuyers a tax credit of $7,000 if they would pur-

chase a home by a certain date. This outside stimulus

effected the shape of our overall market. This year

the curve (green bars on Chart 2) has a few wrinkles

that are interesting. Among other topics I will talk

about those wrinkles and see if those allow us to

predict what will happen next. The report that follows

is a detailed presentation of the sales statistics from

the last quarter.

The year started well, buyers were out in force but

there were few sellers. It was like an army having a

full compliment of the needed weapons but only half

a shipment of ammunition. Everything works as de-

signed, but you just can’t fire the gun as often as

you would like. And so it was with home buyers

early in the year, lots of them, with very few listings

to buy. As a result, the market got off to a slower

than predicted start. Once sellers realized that they

were needed and that they would be compensated

for selling, our market flourished. From March until

July the market followed a nice upward curve. In

August sales predictably fell to a level similar to

June. A nice stair step down. Then in September,

instead of dropping to a level roughly even with

May, it fell to a level most similar to March. What

happened? A few factors contributed to the drop.

The first factor is the fact that most buyers who

had confidence in the market and wanted to buy

before interest rates increased have already done so. A second reason is the school factor, many buyers want

to be in place by the time school starts so they rush to make the sale happen by the end of August. The last

reason was a minor cause in September but may have implications in the coming months, the flooding.

In mid-September the real estate market paused for a week or so while record amounts of rain fell and

caused widespread flooding. The flooding caused not only a lost week in sales and listing activity; it caused

major property damage, mostly in the form of flooded basements. Many pending sales were affected as dam-

age was assessed. Easier to measure was the affect of the floods on the inventory of available homes. During

the month of September the number of active homes decreased by 17% while a year ago during the same

month, our inventory increased by 4%. Many homes that were on the market sustained damage and were

forced off the market and others who would have normally listed their homes concentrated on cleanup rather

than last minute polishing before listing their homes. We have since recovered to a normal level of new listings,

but I suspect that the ripples from the flooding and it’s affects on sales volume and values won’t fully be seen

for some time.

As we move into the fourth quarter we see the market slowing as we approach the holidays. This time of year

many people start formulating their plans for the coming year and the factors that we are looking at which

could affect the real estate market in 2014 are interest rate movement, job growth and how government pos-

turing affects financing and transaction management. As always, if you are considering a move in the coming

year it’s not too early to start our conversation.

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January March May July September November

Boulder County Sales by Month

Single Family and Condos

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Chart 2

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600

700

Average Monthly Sales 2004 - 2012Chart 1

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The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) tracks home values in 304 metropolitan areas across the

United States. The top graph shows Boulder County’s appreciation on a quarterly basis compared to the

United States average. Our recovery has been a bit slower than the US average, but that is a direct

result of the fact that we had less ground to make up. According to FHFA.gov, median home prices in

Boulder County are 6.1% above where they were a year ago. The lower graph shows Boulder’s national

ranking in appreciation over time. The one year appreciation ranks us 63rd among the 304 metropolitan

districts.

Boulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder County

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

1st Qtr. 2009

2nd Qtr. 2009

3rd Qtr. 2009

4th Qtr. 2009

1st Qtr. 2010

2nd Qtr. 2010

3rd Qtr. 2010

4th Qtr. 2010

1st Qtr. 2011

2nd Qtr. 2011

3rd Qtr. 2011

4th Qtr. 2011

1st Qtr. 2012

2nd Qtr. 2012

3rd Qtr. 2012

4th Qtr. 2012

1st Qtr. 2013

2nd Qtr. 2013

One Year Appreciation

Source FHFA.gov

Boulder County United States

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100

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250

2nd Qtr.

2006

4th Qtr.

2006

2nd Qtr.

2007

4th Qtr.

2007

2nd Qtr.

2008

4th Qtr.

2008

2nd Qtr.

2009

4th Qtr.

2009

2nd Qtr.

2010

4th Qtr.

2010

2nd Qtr.

2011

4th Qtr.

2011

2nd Qtr.

2012

4th Qtr.

2012

2nd Qtr.

2013

FHFA Ranking Ranking of one year Appreciation

(304 Total Metro Areas)

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Total sales were up 20% in the 3nd quarter compared to a year ago. Throughout Boulder

County, 66% of all real estate sales during the quarter were single family homes. The pie graph

on the right shows the breakdown of the percentage of properties that closed during the quar-

ter in each area. 31% of the closings during the quarter took place in Boulder, followed by

Longmont with 29%. What is listed as “Plains” is the suburban plains which includes, Gunbarrel,

Niwot, Lyons, the Boulder County side of Erie and all the rural area in between. 14% of all

closings took place in the Suburban Plains.


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800

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1200

1400

1600

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Q3

2008

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Q1

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Q2

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Q2

2013

Q3

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Five Year Trend of Sales Activity Boulder County

66%

30%

4%

Boulder County Sales by Type

Residential Attached Other

31%

7%

10%

29%

4%

5%

14%

Boulder County Sales by Area

Boulder Louisville Lafayette Longmont

Superior Mountains Plains

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The charts on this page of-

fer an interesting view of

the real estate market in

Boulder County.

The top chart shows the

percentage of closings that

occurred in each price

range during the third quar-

ter. There is data for four

quarters, but usually the

percentages are fairly sta-

ble. What stands out is that

this past quarter 76% of

the sales in the county sell

for less than $500,000.

During the third quarter of

2012, 21% of the sales in

the county sold for over

$750,000. During the most

recent quarter 24% of the

sales were in the same

range.

The lower chart shows

prices in Boulder County

over the last five years on

a quarterly basis. The me-

dian prices in the third

quarter decreased a bit af-

ter a strong increase during

the first and second quar-

ters. The national median

price, represented by the

blue line have had a similar

trend.


36%

34%

30%

32%

43%

41%

42%

44%

13%

17%

17%

14%

5%

3%

6%

5%

3%

4%

5%

5%

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

Q2 2013

Q3 2013

Boulder County Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

Q3

2008

Q4

2008

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

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2009

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2009

Q1

2010

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2010

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2011

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2012

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2012

Q1

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Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Price Trends in Boulder County Real Estate

Median Price

Average Price

US Existing Median Price

KearneyRealty.com 6


Sales within the City of Boulder increased by 22.5% during the third quarter this year when

compared to last year. Sales just dropped slightly from the second quarter. There is usually a

larger difference between the two quarters. Helping equalize the two was the fact that the low

inventory of the spring improved throughout the summer. The sales mix in the City of Boulder

this quarter is 50/50, half residential and half attached dwellings.

City of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of Boulder

50%

50%

Sales by Type City of Boulder

Residential Attached

16%

16%

23%

31%

14%

City of Boulder Sales by Zip Code

80301 80302 80303 80304 80305

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700

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Q3

2013

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity City of Boulder

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The City of Boulder

has had more homes

sell the luxury quad-

rant than other areas

of the county. 76% of

the sales countywide

were below $500,000,

in Boulder only 59% of

the sales were below

that threshold. Within

Boulder, sales over $1

million were 8% of the

market this past quar-

ter, this is nearly dou-

ble the percentage of

the county.

The lower chart shows

prices in the City of

Boulder over the past

five years. Until this

quarter prices have not

moved much over the

past five years. The

median price for the

third quarter in Boulder

for all residential prop-

erties sold was

$449,900 up 7% from

a year ago.

City of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of Boulder

25%

21%

25%

25%

37%

37%

31%

34%

22%

27%

22%

22%

10%

7%

11%

11%

6%

7%

11%

8%

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

Q2 2013

Q3 2013

City of Boulder Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

Q3

2008

Q4

2008

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

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2009

Q1

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2010

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2012

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2012

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

City of Boulder Price Trends

Median Price Average Price County Median

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East county includes sales in Erie, Lafayette, Louisville and Superior. The top graph shows that

sales have had a big spike during the second and third quarter. The 527 sales in the third

quarter represents an increase over third quarter sales last year by over 25%. A vast majority

of the sales in east county are single family homes. Just 24% of sales were condos or town-

homes. The pie chart on the right shows where the sales are taking place. The areas where the

most sales are taking place are Erie and Lafayette.

East CountyEast CountyEast CountyEast County

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Five Year Trend of Sales Activity East County Communities

76%

24%

Sales by Type East County Communities

Residential Attached

21%

33%14%

32%

East County Sales by Area

Louisville Lafayette Superior Erie

KearneyRealty.com 9


The median price for

sales in Erie, Lafayette,

Louisville and Superior

during the third quarter

was $345,000. A vast

majority of the sales in

this area are in the

$250 - $500k range.

There are very few

sales above $750,000

(just 19 sales or 3%).

Unlike other areas in

Boulder County, prices

have shown a slow

steady climb over the

past few years. This

past quarter prices

were 6% higher than

at the same point last

year.

There is a lack of in-

ventory in many of the

markets in east county.

The mix of proximity,

lifestyle and median

price had made these

communities very

popular with buyers.

And have caused posi-

tive price pressure.

East CountyEast CountyEast CountyEast County

25%

23%

21%

22%

59%

61%

60%

61%

15%

13%

16%

13%

1%

3%

2%

3%

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

Q2 2013

Q3 2013

East County - Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Q3

2008

Q4

2008

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

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2013

Q3

2013

Price Trend in East Boulder County

Median Price Average Price County Median Price

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Gunbarrel is an area just northeast of Boulder. It is comprised of properties both within the City

of Boulder and others which are in Boulder County. Year after year, the second quarter has the

most sales activity in this area. This year, sales in the third quarter fell by 21% compared to

last quarter but were 24% higher than a year ago. 66% of the sales in Gunbarrel were single

family homes and the balance were condos and townhomes. There were 67 sales in Gunbarrel

during the most recent quarter. This is a much smaller figure than other areas.

GunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrel

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Five Year Trend of Sales Activity - Gunbarrel

Residential66%

Attached34%

Sales by Type Gunbarrel




all sales in Gunbarrel

during the third quarter

was $439,900. This is

higher than at any

time that I have been

keeping track of this

measure. 77% of the

sales in Gunbarrel this

past quarter closed for

$500,000 or less.

There were just 4 (6%)

sales in Gunbarrel over

$750,000 during the

past quarter. Over the

past four quarters the

$500 - $750 price

range has been grow-

ing and the $250 -

$500 price range has

been shrinking. Prices

have jumped.

The sample size for

Gunbarrel is smaller

than the other areas

we look at. Therefore,

the prices reflected in

the graph below are

more variable. Prices

were up 41% over last

years results. A lot of

the variability also has

to do with the chang-

ing mix of condo sales

vs. single family sales.

GunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrel

33%

36%

34%

29%

59%

54%

49%

48%

6%

8%

15%

19%

0%

2%

0%

4%

2%

0%

2%

0%

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

Q2 2013

Gunbarrel Percent of Sales by Price Range

0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2008

Q1

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Q1

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Q2

2013

Price Trend in Gunbarrel

Median Price

Average Price

Boulder County Median



Sales in Longmont continued to be very strong during the third quarter of 2013. Overall there

was a 21% jump in the number of sales from the third quarter of 2013. 79% of the sales in

Longmont are single family homes. Sales are usually evenly spread throughout the city but this

past quarter the highest sales activity were in town and on the east side of town and not quite

as high on the west side of town.

LongmontLongmontLongmontLongmont

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600

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Five Year Trend of Sales Activity - Longmont

Residential79%

Attached21%

Sales by Type Longmont

39%

24%

37%

Sales by Zip Code - Longmont

80501 80503 80504




all sales in Longmont

during the second

quarter was $249,900,

up from $232,500 last

quarter. Nearly all of

the sales in Longmont

close for $500,000 or

less. There have only

been just eight sales

over $750,000 during

the past four quarters.

The median and aver-

age prices in Longmont

are lower than the

county average. The

majority of homes in

Longmont are in the

$150,000 to $300,000

range. This past quar-

ter the average price

of a home that sold in

Longmont was

$270,278. The aver-

age price for all

homes sold in Boulder

County was $421,589.

Longmont continues to

offer good value in

housing.

LongmontLongmontLongmontLongmont

63%

57%

55%

51%

34%

37%

41%

45%

2%

5%

3%

4%

1%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

Q2 2013

Q3 2013

Longmont Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

Q3

2008

Q4

2008

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Price Trend in Longmont

Median Price Average Price Boulder County



Kearney Realty is a local boutique real estate firm with the mission to provide the Boulder Valley a high touch, high touch, high touch, high touch,

high tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experience. Each of our full time associates is empowered and engaged to give top

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Boulder County Sales by Month

Single Family and Condos

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

January February March April May June July August September October November December

Boulder County Median PriceSingle Family and Condos

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013



0

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1500

2000

2500

3000

January February March April May June July August September October November December

2007200720072007 2008200820082008 2009200920092009 2010201020102010 2011201120112011 2012201220122012 2013201320132013

Homes on the Market

Boulder County Residential

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%


Boulder County - Percentage of Single Family Listings Under Contract

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013



The charts on this page show activity on a weekly basis. The top chart shows new listings coming on

the market and the purple line (2013) shows the trend in lower inventory. The lower chart shows the

number of homes that have gone under contract on a weekly basis. This shows gross numbers not per-

centage increases. The combination of these two graphs demonstrate the shortage in the market.

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152

Boulder County Real EstateBoulder County Real EstateBoulder County Real EstateBoulder County Real Estate

New Listings New Listings New Listings New Listings ---- WeeklyWeeklyWeeklyWeekly

2011

2010

2012

2013

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152

Axis

Tit

le

Weekly Under ContractWeekly Under ContractWeekly Under ContractWeekly Under Contract

2010

2011

2012

2013

The dip occurred during

the week of the flooding.



Kearney Realty - Our Core Values

1. Integrity and Class – Keeping our word; knowing what’s right and

doing what’s right.

2. Selfless Service – Exceeding expectations by focusing on excep-

tional service.

3. Caring - All of our relationships are based on mutual respect, co-

operation and consideration.

4. Connected - Give back to the profession and the community. 5%

of company profits are donated to local charities.

5. Innovation – Continually striving to find new and better ways to

serve our customers and associates.

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Sa

les

Boulder County Real Estate

Number Sold - Weekly

2010

2011

2012

2013

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