The Kalam Conference Team - Welcome to Stratcepts 2019-06-24آ  We are assembling a team of...

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  • 1st Abdul Kalam Conference Working Group WG4 Report

    BRIDGING RESEARCH AND IMPLEMENTATION

    The Kalam Conference Team

    June 22, 2019

  • List of Contributors

    • Rohit Gupta • Rahul Goswami • Nivedita Haran • Narayanan Komerath • Dileep Kumar • C.M.A. Nayar • Arjun Pandit • Shri Rao

  • Contents

    1 Introduction 1 1.1 Mandate of Working Group 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.2 Solution Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

    2 Governance and Justice 5 2.1 Prelude . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2.2 Policy Evolution and Continuity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 2.3 A Sampling of Governance Literature From Around The World . . . 11

    2.3.1 Electronic communications in Justice Administration: The Rwanda Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

    2.3.2 Internet, Social Media and the Return of The Lynch Mob . . . 14 2.3.3 Social Inequalities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 2.3.4 The Governance Trap: The Mexico Example . . . . . . . . . . 16 2.3.5 Loss of Confidence in Governance: the Eastern Mediterranean

    Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 2.4 Literature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

    3 Agriculture 23 3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 3.2 Dependence on Monsoons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 3.3 Food Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

    4 Artificial Intelligence: Opportunities and Risks 26 4.1 Legal System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 4.2 Medical delivery/ Telemedicine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 4.3 Natural Language Processing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 4.4 Voting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 4.5 Military / Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

    iii

  • iv CONTENTS

    4.6 Disaster Alleviation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 4.7 Justice System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 4.8 Education and Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 4.9 Steps to enhance the growth of AI in India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 4.10 Concerns About Data Localization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 4.11 Financial Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 4.12 Rural Enterprise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 4.13 Overall Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 4.14 Impact of automation on industrial activities and service activities . . 39 4.15 AI and Indias challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 4.16 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

    References 44

    Index 45

  • Chapter 1

    Introduction

    1.1 Mandate of Working Group 4

    Grand plans need careful implementation. As we develop a roadmap to facilitate massive distributed growth based on people moving out from cities to villages and pursuing a happy life, we must clear the obstacles that exist or may arise. Investment of life and capital requires a reasonable expectation that promised infrastructure materializes with good quality. People expect good healthcare, education, recreational facilities, peace, and the maintenance of law and order. Business investment requires a predictable, level playing field with sensible regulations, and swift, efficient justice. In short, things must work.

    Large improvements can be made to the success of projects by bridging the gap between implementation and the available knowledge base and capabilities. Many research papers look in depth into problems, and propose innovative solutions. However, translating these into ground reality is hindered by many problems. Often the suggested remedies are drastic and punitive, without really getting to the root causes. Success stories abound, but their lessons may not be properly understood, assimilated and incorporated.

    As with each of the other Working Groups, the activities of this Group are critical to success of the other groups. So we have started by collecting some widely-distributed literature to sample the research questions being pondered, invite discussions with various entities, and capture their opinions. Driving our interests are several projects that will tie into the other Working Group areas, all focused on the same objective of sustainable growth, rural self-reliance and reversing urban migration. Thus there is

    1

  • 2 CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION

    primary linkage to Group 1 through energy and enterprise growth. There is primary linkage to Group 2 in several ways: enabling the reversal of pollution and the growth of greenery; implementing well-considered water conservation and resource linkage projects; implementing river and water body cleanup; building infrastructure to enable carefully-planned reverse migration and rural settlements. The primary linkage to Group 3 is because of the basic question asked of this Group: How to take the best of research ideas and innovative concepts, and turn them into successful grassroots implementation. Thus the advances along grand directions (such as reversing Climate Change, Artificial Intelligence and Thorium energy) as well as specific innovations (hydrogen village for instance) are of intense interest. The primary self-linkage to Group 4 is in applying research lessons on project administration around the world, as well as the growing technology of AI, to the Justice system and to the ability to model and predict floods and drought, and how to increase the resilience of communities to disasters, as well the efficiency of disaster response. The relevance to Group 5 is very strong: it is a central objective of good administration to bring swift, effective and affordable medical care of top quality to every resident.

    The initial activities of this group include

    1. Panel to discuss implementation hurdles and solutions.

    2. NGO role in connecting to villagers.

    3. Role and implications of Artificial Intelligence.

    We are assembling a team of dedicated, experienced present and former IAS officers, who are determined to bridge the gap between implementation and capabilities. Research advances are often lost in implementation and likewise, the real issues in implementation often do not get communicated or recognized in the academic research environment. An illustrative example is a recent conference on disaster management and alleviation, where there were numerous research paper presentations, but no mechanism to listen and understand the difficulties faced by local administrators and villagers - until an impromptu gathering of attendees conducted such a discussion, late into the night. The above illustrates the critical importance of alliances with the NGOs to develop a resonant synergistic relationship with the villagers.

    Beyond this, exciting possibilities are developing with the resurgence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology. Indian leaders see immense potential in software / Information Technology employment in India as this wave grows. However, our focus is on applications that start with a focus on India.

    The Justice System in India is in need of good ideas. Basic Indian philosophy is to have a much lower ratio of Law Enforcement personnel to the population, than is

  • 1.1. MANDATE OF WORKING GROUP 4 3

    the norm in most Developed Nations. The resources available for the Justice system are also quite inadequate to deal with today’s demands. AI could revolutionize this system, by first inducing digitization of the records into searchable databases, and then employing AI methods to recommend solutions and judgements solidly based on precedent as well as forward-looking wisdom. This should of course be as an aid to the human judge, whose time can be much better used, with far greater productivity.

    A brief writeup from an experienced administrator follows.

    1. Coordination and good interaction form the basis for good governance.

    2. In actual fact one finds a number of existing gaps in thought processes, ac- tions and priorities; some of the widest gaps are: between academicians and administrators; between social and natural scientists; between researchers and technologists.

    3. These gaps lead to deep chasms between thought processes that nullify the results on the ground.

    4. Take for example the research being done on protection of public lands and the need to use modern technology to do the same. Why are digitised cadastral maps still a dream in India and what is done is more to spend budgetary funds and not to provide relief to the people? The policy makers struggle to find the right solution, fighting their way through a maze of hardware-selling corporates, cagey software designers and omnipresent land mafia with close political and bureaucratic links.

    5. Or take the case of the bridge schools meant to provide basic literacy to the school dropouts while providing them skill training. The schools have been hijacked by local bigwigs to provide quality education to their children.

    6. And then there is the example of cleaning up of our water bodies: commercial houseboats and hotels release the night soil and pollutants into the Dal Lake with impunity in violation of all statutes and demand financial assistance for not doing so.

    7. Academician