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The Itanium RoadmapThe Itanium Roadmap……Implications for Users Considering Migration Implications for Users Considering Migration

to Itaniumto Itanium

Joe ClabbyJoe ClabbyPresident, Clabby AnalyticsPresident, Clabby AnalyticsNovember, 2003November, 2003

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Presentation DisclaimersPresentation DisclaimersThis report was developed by Clabby Analytics at its own expense – and represents the opinion of Clabby Analytics.IBM assisted in the creation of this report by reviewing this report for technical accuracy, and by providing information (including publicly available data) contained herein. All statements regarding IBM's future direction and intent are subject to change or withdrawal without notice, and represents goals and objections only.This report does not necessarily represent IBM's position on these issues.Other companies may also have provided information to Clabby Analytics for inclusion in this report. Clabby Analytics is receiving a fee for the delivery of this report.

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BackgroundBackgroundIn November, 2002, Clabby Analytics approached HewlettIn November, 2002, Clabby Analytics approached Hewlett--Packard, IBM, Intel, and Sun with a proposal to do a multiPackard, IBM, Intel, and Sun with a proposal to do a multi--client client study of 64study of 64--bit computing architecturesbit computing architectures

None of these companies were interested in funding such a studyNone of these companies were interested in funding such a studyClabby Analytics conducted our research on 64Clabby Analytics conducted our research on 64--bit technologies bit technologies and market trends anywayand market trends anyway

Published our opinion in June, 2003 Published our opinion in June, 2003 –– ““HPHP’’s Forced Migration to s Forced Migration to ItaniumItanium””

IBM approached Clabby Analytics to provide further details and IBM approached Clabby Analytics to provide further details and research on our opinionresearch on our opinion

This teleconference explains our opinion in more depthThis teleconference explains our opinion in more depth

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AgendaAgenda

Topics of discussionTopics of discussionDiscontinuance of PADiscontinuance of PA--RISC, Alpha, and the e3000 RISC, Alpha, and the e3000 means HP users will eventually need to migrate to means HP users will eventually need to migrate to new systems platformnew systems platformA Closer Look at the HP Itanium Migration A Closer Look at the HP Itanium Migration RoadmapRoadmapToward understanding RISC and EPIC Toward understanding RISC and EPIC architecturearchitectureThe real bottom line: application availabilityThe real bottom line: application availabilityConsidered advice: look above the platform!Considered advice: look above the platform!Summary ObservationsSummary Observations

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Speaker BackgroundSpeaker BackgroundComputer industry for 26 yearsComputer industry for 26 years

Sales/marketing/research & analysisSales/marketing/research & analysisTechnical backgroundTechnical background

Systems/OS Systems/OS CommsComms/networking /networking Application developmentApplication developmentMigrationMigration

Research/analysis Research/analysis Former VP of Platforms and Services, Aberdeen GroupFormer VP of Platforms and Services, Aberdeen GroupNow independentNow independent

AuthorAuthorVisualize This (Internet virtualization); Web Services ExplainedVisualize This (Internet virtualization); Web Services Explained(Web services applied to business)(Web services applied to business)

New book on making IT systems and infrastructure serve business New book on making IT systems and infrastructure serve business process flow (adaptive, agile, onprocess flow (adaptive, agile, on--demand computing)demand computing)

PhilosophyPhilosophyInformation systems should serve business process flowInformation systems should serve business process flow

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The SituationThe SituationHP is discontinuing Alpha and PAHP is discontinuing Alpha and PA--RISCRISC

AlphaAlphaNew generations include Alpha EV7 and EV79 chips through 2005New generations include Alpha EV7 and EV79 chips through 2005

See Information Week article on the demise of Alpha at:See Information Week article on the demise of Alpha at:http://http://www.informationweek.com/story/showArticle.jhtml?articleIDwww.informationweek.com/story/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=15600236=15600236

Support planned through 2011Support planned through 2011PAPA--RISCRISC

PAPA--8800 and PA8800 and PA--8900 roadmap through 2005 (or 2006)8900 roadmap through 2005 (or 2006)HP users will eventually need to migrate to new systems platformHP users will eventually need to migrate to new systems platformss

HP would like to see:HP would like to see:Its Tru64 Unix Alpha customers move to HPIts Tru64 Unix Alpha customers move to HP--UX on EPIC/ItaniumUX on EPIC/ItaniumIts HPIts HP--UX PAUX PA--RISC customers move EPIC/Itanium platformsRISC customers move EPIC/Itanium platforms

But moving from RISC architecture to the new EPIC architecture But moving from RISC architecture to the new EPIC architecture meansmeans adopting a completely new instruction set!adopting a completely new instruction set!

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The SituationThe SituationFurtherFurther……

HP discontinued support for the HP e3000HP discontinued support for the HP e3000The e3000 line retired on October 31, 2003The e3000 line retired on October 31, 2003

http://www.hp.com/products1/evolution/e3000/index.htmlhttp://www.hp.com/products1/evolution/e3000/index.html

Wants HP e3000 users to move to EPIC/ItaniumWants HP e3000 users to move to EPIC/ItaniumHP would like HP would like NonStopKernelNonStopKernel OS on MIPS and OpenVMS on OS on MIPS and OpenVMS on Alpha customers to move to Itanium alsoAlpha customers to move to Itanium also……

http://www.gartner.com/gc/webletter/hp/article1/article1.htmlhttp://www.gartner.com/gc/webletter/hp/article1/article1.html

HP has not adopted AMDHP has not adopted AMD’’s Opterons OpteronA 64A 64--bit Intelbit Intel--based processor that has an instruction set similar to IAbased processor that has an instruction set similar to IA--32 rather than a completely new instruction set (as is the case 32 rather than a completely new instruction set (as is the case with with EPIC)EPIC)

Opteron would be an option for users with existing IntelOpteron would be an option for users with existing Intel--based based applications who want application and database consistency when applications who want application and database consistency when moving from IAmoving from IA--32 to 6432 to 64--bit computingbit computing

Means only Windows/Linux 64Means only Windows/Linux 64--bit growth path will necessitate bit growth path will necessitate dealing with the new EPIC/Itanium instruction setdealing with the new EPIC/Itanium instruction set

HP is clearly steering its customers to HP is clearly steering its customers to EPIC/ItaniumEPIC/Itanium

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The SituationThe SituationFinallyFinally……

The migration story does not end with platformsThe migration story does not end with platformsHP has also announce that it is withdrawing its MA8000, EMA HP has also announce that it is withdrawing its MA8000, EMA 12000/16000 (last orders were in August, 2003) storage offerings12000/16000 (last orders were in August, 2003) storage offerings

HP customers may also need to reevaluate HP customers may also need to reevaluate their storage situation.their storage situation.

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The PropositionThe Proposition

HP 9000PA-RISC

HP 9000PA-RISC

ProLiantIntel 32-bit

ProLiantIntel 32-bit

HP e3000Proprietary 16-bit,

PA-RISC

HP e3000Proprietary 16-bit,

PA-RISC

HP NonStopMIPS

HP NonStopMIPS

AlphaServerAlpha

AlphaServerAlpha

MPE/iX

HP-UXLinux

WindowsLinux

OpenVMSTru64

NonStop Kernel

HP-UX, Linux, Windows,

OpenVMS (future)NonStop Kernel (future)

Integrity64-bit

Itanium

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The PredicamentThe Predicament

"It's probably a good idea for developers and software vendors to do a native port or re-compilation onto Itanium because RISC has no understanding of some of the architectural constructs within Itanium. Therefore, the code that was developed for PA-RISC cannot take advantage of it," says Chris Franklin, enterprise server marketing manager at HP.

Source: Infoconomy – Information AgeJuly - 2002

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WhatWhat’’s Really Going On?s Really Going On?Two pointsTwo points

MooreMoore’’s Laws LawIn 1965, Gordon Moore (Intel coIn 1965, Gordon Moore (Intel co--founder) stated his belief that the number of founder) stated his belief that the number of transistors per square inch on integrated circuits would double transistors per square inch on integrated circuits would double every every year every every year (now every 18 months)(now every 18 months)What happens when engineers can no longer ratchetWhat happens when engineers can no longer ratchet--up clock rates and pack up clock rates and pack data as densely?data as densely?

New approaches to New approaches to ““parallelismparallelism””In order to continue MooreIn order to continue Moore’’s Law, microprocessor makers are trying to find ways s Law, microprocessor makers are trying to find ways to process more instructions in to process more instructions in parallelparallel

Parallelization: breaking up data and handling it simultaneouslyParallelization: breaking up data and handling it simultaneously rather than sequentiallyrather than sequentially

Example: Example:

Courtesy: IBM

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WhatWhat’’s Really Going On?s Really Going On?EPIC/Itanium is a new approach designed EPIC/Itanium is a new approach designed to achieve efficient parallelismto achieve efficient parallelism

HP and Intel have collaborated on a new design for parallel HP and Intel have collaborated on a new design for parallel processingprocessing

EPIC (explicitly parallel instruction computing) is an EPIC (explicitly parallel instruction computing) is an architectural architectural approachapproach to computing that attempts to increase performance by to computing that attempts to increase performance by speculatively executing instructions and fetching data from memospeculatively executing instructions and fetching data from memory ry such that data can be processed quicklysuch that data can be processed quicklyItanium is the EPIC Itanium is the EPIC microprocessormicroprocessor

Itanium uses a different instruction set than RISC processorsItanium uses a different instruction set than RISC processorsItanium can process up to 20 operations at onceItanium can process up to 20 operations at onceItanium resources include:Itanium resources include:

2 floating point execution units; 4 integer execution units; 3 b2 floating point execution units; 4 integer execution units; 3 branch unitsranch unitsInternet streamingInternet streamingSingle Instruction Multiple Data (SIMD) processingSingle Instruction Multiple Data (SIMD) processing128 integer registers128 integer registers

EPIC is an approach to parallelism; Itanium is a processor designed to execute that approach.

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Why Is This Important?Why Is This Important?Parallel ProcessingParallel Processing

The concept of The concept of ““parallel processingparallel processing”” is important because parallel is important because parallel processing allows a microprocessor to process more workprocessing allows a microprocessor to process more work

Like having many more systems to use for processingLike having many more systems to use for processingWhen combined with faster clock speed = significantly more powerWhen combined with faster clock speed = significantly more powerfrom the microprocessorfrom the microprocessor

The approach used to provide parallel processing is the primary The approach used to provide parallel processing is the primary differentiator between RISC and EPIC architecturesdifferentiator between RISC and EPIC architectures

With the RISC approach the logic for extracting parallelism exisWith the RISC approach the logic for extracting parallelism exists ts between the compiler and the processorbetween the compiler and the processorWith the EPIC approach the logic for extracting parallelism runsWith the EPIC approach the logic for extracting parallelism runsexclusively at the compiler exclusively at the compiler –– the Itanium chip then follows an execution the Itanium chip then follows an execution schedule defined by the compiler and then executes compiler schedule defined by the compiler and then executes compiler instructionsinstructions

HPHP’’s PAs PA--RISC and Alpha users now have an important choice to RISC and Alpha users now have an important choice to make make –– and need to understand the differences between RISC and and need to understand the differences between RISC and

EPIC and the impact on their migration path.EPIC and the impact on their migration path.

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Comparing RISC to EPICComparing RISC to EPICExploring the differences in a little more depthExploring the differences in a little more depth……

Both RISC and EPIC are trying to tackle the same problem Both RISC and EPIC are trying to tackle the same problem ––parallelizationparallelization

RISC uses a design that allows the microprocessor to take part RISC uses a design that allows the microprocessor to take part in the decisions regarding how to best process incoming in the decisions regarding how to best process incoming instructionsinstructions

RISC supplements compiler optimization with hardware that RISC supplements compiler optimization with hardware that extracts parallelism and is responsive to execution variabilityextracts parallelism and is responsive to execution variability

This is especially relevant at runtime (while a program is execuThis is especially relevant at runtime (while a program is executing) ting) because the processor can dynamically reschedule the workload itbecause the processor can dynamically reschedule the workload itreceives around failures and disruptions that may occurreceives around failures and disruptions that may occur

EPIC uses an approach that performs all parallelization at the EPIC uses an approach that performs all parallelization at the compiler level and then it tells the microprocessor what to docompiler level and then it tells the microprocessor what to do

EPIC attempts to increase performance by speculatively EPIC attempts to increase performance by speculatively executing instructions and fetching data from memory without executing instructions and fetching data from memory without knowledge of actual run time conditionsknowledge of actual run time conditions

EPIC design uses EPIC design uses ““predicationpredication”” (conditional execution based on a (conditional execution based on a qualifying circumstance/predicate) to qualifying circumstance/predicate) to avoid some of the delays avoid some of the delays associated with branchesassociated with branchesEPIC architecture relies exclusively on compilers to extract EPIC architecture relies exclusively on compilers to extract ““execution execution parallelismparallelism””

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A Closer Look at the EPIC ApproachA Closer Look at the EPIC ApproachHow EPIC worksHow EPIC works

The ramifications of using this predictive approachThe ramifications of using this predictive approachBy using a predictive data and control speculation approach, EPIBy using a predictive data and control speculation approach, EPIC architecture allows C architecture allows the compiler to move load instructions up earlier in program exethe compiler to move load instructions up earlier in program execution order and hence cution order and hence initiate memory accesses earlier than would otherwise be possiblinitiate memory accesses earlier than would otherwise be possiblee

Memory latency (wait time) is reduced, resulting in the ability Memory latency (wait time) is reduced, resulting in the ability to execute program more quicklyto execute program more quicklyThis makes the EPIC/Itanium a real This makes the EPIC/Itanium a real ““screamerscreamer”” in certain predictable application environmentsin certain predictable application environments

Outstanding performance in leading benchmarks (predictable test Outstanding performance in leading benchmarks (predictable test environments)environments)Scientific, research, network edge, security, and highScientific, research, network edge, security, and high--performance computing environmentsperformance computing environmentsVery large database consolidation environments

Software Compiler ItaniumPrograms writtenin architecture in-

dependent "High Level Language“ (e.g. C++, Fortran, etc.)

Translates and parallelizes com-puting tasks and presents them toItanium

Executes EPIC tasks using underlyingparallel architecture,bandwidth, executionresources, and inte-grated cache

Error management in hardware, firmware,and O/S

Very large database consolidation environments

This is a very good architecture in predictable,number-crunching environments…

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A Closer Look at the EPIC ApproachA Closer Look at the EPIC ApproachA Closer Look at the EPIC ApproachA Closer Look at the EPIC Approach

Two drawbacksTwo drawbacksEPIC intrinsically requires larger cachesEPIC intrinsically requires larger caches"Code Bloat" "Code Bloat"

EPIC instructions are 33% bigger than RISC instructionsEPIC instructions are 33% bigger than RISC instructionsArchitectural constraints require insertion of "NoArchitectural constraints require insertion of "No--Operation" instructionsOperation" instructionsThe EPIC compiler must generate code to test if a problem was enThe EPIC compiler must generate code to test if a problem was encountered and then generate countered and then generate code to fix the problem code to fix the problem

Data is speculatively brought into cache and not usedData is speculatively brought into cache and not usedEPIC uses a static approach to determine how a workload should bEPIC uses a static approach to determine how a workload should be e processedprocessed

Rigid execution schedule prevents EPIC from adjusting to data anRigid execution schedule prevents EPIC from adjusting to data and control d control patterns that do not fit assumptions made at compile time patterns that do not fit assumptions made at compile time Inability to cope with runtime variabilityInability to cope with runtime variability makes EPIC architecture makes EPIC architecture less desirableless desirablethan RISC for than RISC for transaction processing environmentstransaction processing environments

Runtime is when a system is actually executing commands. Failure to execute properly at runtime means transactions need to be stopped, rolled-back, restarted – with loss of time but hopefully with no loss of data!

Some computer engineers consider this static approach the Some computer engineers consider this static approach the ““flawflaw””in in EPIC architecture because EPIC attempts to predetermine how a EPIC architecture because EPIC attempts to predetermine how a processor will respond in a dynamic, nonprocessor will respond in a dynamic, non--predictable environment predictable environment (rather than examining how an application is behaving at run tim(rather than examining how an application is behaving at run time).e).

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A Comment on BenchmarkingA Comment on BenchmarkingEPIC performs well in benchmarks, butEPIC performs well in benchmarks, but……

Because of the static scheduling nature of EPIC, Intel and HP Because of the static scheduling nature of EPIC, Intel and HP encourage the use of a encourage the use of a ““profilingprofiling”” step.step.

Profiling is an extra procedure after a program is compiled wherProfiling is an extra procedure after a program is compiled where one runs e one runs the compiled program on sample data to see how it performs the compiled program on sample data to see how it performs ---- and then and then feeds the results back to the compiler for a feeds the results back to the compiler for a second compilationsecond compilation

Means the sample data must be highly representative of the real Means the sample data must be highly representative of the real datadataThis is an expensive process that is only as good as the sample This is an expensive process that is only as good as the sample datadata

EPIC works well in TPCEPIC works well in TPC--C benchmarks (and others) because the C benchmarks (and others) because the test data is known beforehand!test data is known beforehand!

The code can be preThe code can be pre--profiled with a workload similar to TPCprofiled with a workload similar to TPC--C (or even with C (or even with TPCTPC--C itself)C itself)

EPIC can be tuned to the profile of the benchmark itself EPIC can be tuned to the profile of the benchmark itself –– usually usually producing outstanding benchmark results.producing outstanding benchmark results.

Remember Remember –– itit’’s what happens at runtime in s what happens at runtime in the real world that is important!the real world that is important!

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A Closer Look at the RISC ApproachA Closer Look at the RISC ApproachRISC makers believe they can maintain leadership performance groRISC makers believe they can maintain leadership performance growth without wth without introducing a completely new architectureintroducing a completely new architecture

Systems performance continues to scale with frequency (and RISC Systems performance continues to scale with frequency (and RISC vendors show vendors show higher frequency roadmaps than Intel with Itanium)higher frequency roadmaps than Intel with Itanium)Dual cores; Simultaneous MultiDual cores; Simultaneous Multi--Threading (SMT); etc.Threading (SMT); etc.

IBM’s Approach:

Courtesy: IBM Corporation

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A Closer Look at the RISC ApproachA Closer Look at the RISC ApproachSunSun’’s approachs approach

Sun is working on a design that would place six to eight Sun is working on a design that would place six to eight cores on one die, enabling the company to handle up to cores on one die, enabling the company to handle up to 32 threads simultaneously part of Sun32 threads simultaneously part of Sun’’s Throughput s Throughput Computing Initiative Computing Initiative –– codenamed codenamed NiagraNiagra))

Called Called ““chip multichip multi--threadingthreading”” (CMT) (CMT) –– Sun expects to Sun expects to process tens of threads simultaneously by leveraging the process tens of threads simultaneously by leveraging the increased number of transistors on a microchipincreased number of transistors on a microchip

By 2005, Sun expects to increase performance by By 2005, Sun expects to increase performance by 15X15XBeyond 2005, Sun expects to increase todayBeyond 2005, Sun expects to increase today’’s s process performance by a factor of 30X! process performance by a factor of 30X! http://www.sun.com/processors/whitepapers/throughhttp://www.sun.com/processors/whitepapers/throughput_whitepaper.pdfput_whitepaper.pdf

In other words, expect RISC technology to continue to have the capacity and capability to deliver against the Moore’s Law

performance curve for quite some time!

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A Closer Look at the RISC ApproachA Closer Look at the RISC ApproachFurther, RISC makers believe that they have a solid and Further, RISC makers believe that they have a solid and sustainable lead over Itanium in the areas of reliability, availsustainable lead over Itanium in the areas of reliability, availability, ability, and scalabilityand scalability

Courtesy: IBM Corporation

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The Primary Issue: The Primary Issue: Applications AvailabilityApplications Availability

Forget about TPCForget about TPC--C, SPECWEB99_SSL, SPEC CPU2000, C, SPECWEB99_SSL, SPEC CPU2000, LinpakLinpak HPC et al HPC et al –– enter the real worldenter the real world…… The real issue is The real issue is porting existing custom (and possibly packaged) applications porting existing custom (and possibly packaged) applications to Itaniumto Itanium

Choices: rewrite them Choices: rewrite them –– or run them in emulation mode on Itanium or run them in emulation mode on Itanium Check to see if your ISV has ported your favorite applications tCheck to see if your ISV has ported your favorite applications to Itanium 2o Itanium 2

(And if not, in which year will that ISV support Itanium(And if not, in which year will that ISV support Itanium--based servers)based servers)How much are you willing to pay to port your custom applicationsHow much are you willing to pay to port your custom applications to Itanium 2? to Itanium 2?

Rev level is also importantRev level is also importantIf you run PeopleSoft 7 and HP/Intel only ports PeopleSoft 8 If you run PeopleSoft 7 and HP/Intel only ports PeopleSoft 8 –– youyou’’ve got to ve got to upgrade the application too!upgrade the application too!

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The Primary Issue: The Primary Issue: Applications AvailabilityApplications Availability

The Application SituationThe Application SituationIBM & Sun Microsystems IBM & Sun Microsystems –– each offers over 10,000 applications on their each offers over 10,000 applications on their respective Unix platformsrespective Unix platforms

Took many years (after stabilizing their architectures) to get tTook many years (after stabilizing their architectures) to get therehere……Intel Intel -- estimated 300estimated 300--400 applications available on Itanium400 applications available on Itanium--class platformsclass platforms

Note that these 300Note that these 300--400 are across 3 operating systems: Linux, Windows, Unix400 are across 3 operating systems: Linux, Windows, UnixBe careful: some estimates are that EPIC/Itanium is running a thBe careful: some estimates are that EPIC/Itanium is running a thousand applications. ousand applications. This may be the case This may be the case –– but examine if the applications are being run in EPIC 64but examine if the applications are being run in EPIC 64--bit bit mode or if they run in the emulator (much slowermode or if they run in the emulator (much slower…… may be less than 1X of the speed may be less than 1X of the speed of 32of 32--bit!)bit!)Go to Go to http://cedar.intel.com/cgihttp://cedar.intel.com/cgi--bin/ids.dll/topic.jsp?catCode=CMGbin/ids.dll/topic.jsp?catCode=CMG for Intelfor Intel’’s s application listapplication list

Good performance is meaningless if it won’t run your applications!

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The Questions You Need to Ask YourselfThe Questions You Need to Ask YourselfWhatWhat’’s the benefit? s the benefit?

If you chose to migrate, does the potential gain in performance If you chose to migrate, does the potential gain in performance offset the cost?offset the cost?New products, expensive assessment/porting/implementation servicNew products, expensive assessment/porting/implementation services for what gain? es for what gain?

Is HPIs HP--UX your longUX your long--term strategic operating environment?term strategic operating environment?If yes, stay with HPIf yes, stay with HP’’s plans planIf Linux If Linux –– what are HPwhat are HP’’s Linux/EPIC/Itanium plans? s Linux/EPIC/Itanium plans? If Windows If Windows –– HP, Dell, and IBM also provide Itanium solutions. Also consideHP, Dell, and IBM also provide Itanium solutions. Also consider AMD.r AMD.

Can the money you need to spend on migration be spent more Can the money you need to spend on migration be spent more wisely elsewhere (on other projects)?wisely elsewhere (on other projects)?Does the vendor have the expertise to help in the port?Does the vendor have the expertise to help in the port?

SignSign--up for the white paper on this topicup for the white paper on this topic

Does the vendor have the tools/utilities needed to help port?Does the vendor have the tools/utilities needed to help port?SignSign--up for the White Paper on this topicup for the White Paper on this topic

Are there alternative approaches?Are there alternative approaches?Moving to grid architecture to obtain more processing powerMoving to grid architecture to obtain more processing powerMoving to a different RISC architectureMoving to a different RISC architecture

Remember: The only reason to go with EPIC/Itanium is to get betterperformance. Get price quotes for moving to EPIC/Itanium and for

moving to a competing RISC architecture!

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The MarketplaceThe MarketplaceThe Cost ArgumentThe Cost Argument

Itanium claims:Itanium claims:““Itanium 2 processor 1.40 GHz with 1.5MB L3 cache offers leading Itanium 2 processor 1.40 GHz with 1.5MB L3 cache offers leading price/performance for price/performance for compute intensive workloads compute intensive workloads …… and also offers outstanding performance for network edge, and also offers outstanding performance for network edge, security, and software engineering applications. Optimized for Dsecurity, and software engineering applications. Optimized for DP servers and P servers and workstationsworkstations……[offer] a significant price/performance advantage over RISC[offer] a significant price/performance advantage over RISC--based platforms based platforms delivering industry leading $/FLOPSdelivering industry leading $/FLOPS””. .

Source: Source: http://www.intel.com/products/server/processors/server/itanium2http://www.intel.com/products/server/processors/server/itanium2--/index.htm?iid=ipp_browse+featureprocess_itanium2&/index.htm?iid=ipp_browse+featureprocess_itanium2&

This is true This is true –– sometimes. The benchmark data constantly changes sometimes. The benchmark data constantly changes (leapfrogging); and vendors constantly adjust pricing to compete(leapfrogging); and vendors constantly adjust pricing to compete with each with each other.other.Also, consider this:Also, consider this:

““IDC estimated that the [Itanium] chip, shortly to go into its thIDC estimated that the [Itanium] chip, shortly to go into its third incarnation as the ird incarnation as the Madison processor, only shipped in 3,500 servers last year. ThatMadison processor, only shipped in 3,500 servers last year. That's out of a total of 's out of a total of 4,500,000 server systems shipped in 20034,500,000 server systems shipped in 2003””. . http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=7983http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=7983

Speculation: Intel cannot afford to seed this market with cheapchips ad infinitum (especially with low volumes). Expect price

increases due to low volumes over time in the Intel camp; matched by price decreases (if necessary) in the RISC camp…

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Look Above the Platform, too!Look Above the Platform, too!

ApplicationsMANAGEMENT

MonitorContolAuditSecureReportEtc.

CustomPackaged

Windows/Open SourceCommercial Packaged

MiddlewareApp Dev ToolsWeb Server/PortalApplication Server

Infrastructure

Operating EnvironmentLinux or WindowsStandardized

Standardized

Standardized

HardwareIntel or PowerPCStandardized

J2EE or .NET

DatabasesOracle

SQL ServerDB2

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Look Above the Platform, too!Look Above the Platform, too!Your focus needsto be on buildinginformation systemsthat serve businessprocess flow.

Find and ManageResources Automatically

Dynamic partitioning,memory, storage allocation

Locate Other Resources

Generatea Web

ServicesRequest

.NET Infrastructure•Applications written using Microsoft’s IDE (Visual Studio)

•Running on Microsoft horizon-taland vertical infrastructure components (Exchange, SQL…)

•Using automated manage-ment; maybe data federation

J2EE Infrastructure•Applications writtenusing IBM or HP or …’s IDE

•Running on IBM, BEA, or otherhorizontal and verticalinfrastructure components

•Using autonomic/adaptivemanagement; maybe data federation

Generatea Web

ServicesRequest

.NET Infrastructure•Applications written using Microsoft’s IDE (Visual Studio)

•Running on Microsoft horizon-taland vertical infrastructure components (Exchange, SQL…)

•Using automated manage-ment; maybe data federation

J2EE Infrastructure•Applications writtenusing IBM or HP or …’s IDE

•Running on IBM, BEA, or otherhorizontal and verticalinfrastructure components

•Using autonomic/adaptivemanagement; maybe data federation

Agile, Adaptive, or On Demand Operating Environment

Information Systems SupportBusiness Process Flow

Where are you goingto find the sophisticatedsoftware that enablesyour organization tobuild dynamic, subserv-ient computing environ-ments that run on EPICarchitecture?

27

Summary ObservationsSummary ObservationsBoth RISC and EPIC architectures strive for the same thing Both RISC and EPIC architectures strive for the same thing ––increased performance through parallel processingincreased performance through parallel processing

RISC vendors believe they can achieve efficient parallelization RISC vendors believe they can achieve efficient parallelization for for at least another decade through Simultaneous Multi Threading, at least another decade through Simultaneous Multi Threading, adding multiple cores to a single die, by increasing frequency, adding multiple cores to a single die, by increasing frequency, and and numerous other techniques and technical approachesnumerous other techniques and technical approaches

RISC vendors also believe that they have a substantial and sustaRISC vendors also believe that they have a substantial and sustainable inable lead over EPIC architecture in reliability, availability, and sclead over EPIC architecture in reliability, availability, and scalabilityalability

EPIC/Itanium presents an alternative approach for parallel EPIC/Itanium presents an alternative approach for parallel processingprocessing

EPIC/Itanium engineers believe they can beat the RISC approachEPIC/Itanium engineers believe they can beat the RISC approachBoth are good architecturesBoth are good architectures

The primary differences are:The primary differences are:EPIC/Itanium runs a new instruction set (potentially requiring sEPIC/Itanium runs a new instruction set (potentially requiring software oftware migration)migration)Where parallelization takes placeWhere parallelization takes place

RISC RISC –– in the compiler and on the chip; EPIC in the compiler and on the chip; EPIC –– in the compiler exclusivelyin the compiler exclusivelyArgument: EPIC approach is flawed because it doesnArgument: EPIC approach is flawed because it doesn’’t allow for t allow for runtime correctionruntime correction

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Summary ObservationsSummary ObservationsEPIC does very well (performanceEPIC does very well (performance--wise) in predictable wise) in predictable application environmentsapplication environments

Network edge, security, software engineering, highNetwork edge, security, software engineering, high--performance computing, very large database, a few othersperformance computing, very large database, a few others

Compute intensive with limited variabilityCompute intensive with limited variabilityEPIC is one of the futures for MicrosoftEPIC is one of the futures for Microsoft’’s Windowss WindowsProblems:Problems:

The biggest problem with EPIC/Itanium is lack of applicationsThe biggest problem with EPIC/Itanium is lack of applicationsAround 300Around 300--400 across three operating environments400 across three operating environments

Limited ISV supportLimited ISV supportWatch the application reporting numbers (some are 32Watch the application reporting numbers (some are 32--bit bit applications that can run on Itaniumapplications that can run on Itanium……))

The second biggest problem will be porting costs for custom The second biggest problem will be porting costs for custom applicationsapplications

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Summary ObservationsSummary ObservationsHewlettHewlett--Packard is IntelPackard is Intel’’s cos co--developer of EPICdeveloper of EPIC

HP has bet the farm on EPICHP has bet the farm on EPICProblems with HP approach:Problems with HP approach:

All roads lead to HPAll roads lead to HP--UX on EPIC/ItaniumUX on EPIC/ItaniumHP/e3000 to HPHP/e3000 to HP--UX on EPIC/Itanium migration tools UX on EPIC/Itanium migration tools and planand planHP Tru64/Alpha to HPHP Tru64/Alpha to HP--UX on EPIC/Itanium migration UX on EPIC/Itanium migration tools and plantools and planHP HPHP HP--UX/PAUX/PA--RISC to HPRISC to HP--UX on EPIC/Itanium UX on EPIC/Itanium (custom engagements)(custom engagements)What about people who want to go to Linux. Where What about people who want to go to Linux. Where are the corresponding tools, utilities, and services?are the corresponding tools, utilities, and services?What about Windows users or Linux users who want What about Windows users or Linux users who want backward application compatibility with IAbackward application compatibility with IA--32? 32? WhereWhere’’s HPs HP’’s AMD Opteron support for 64s AMD Opteron support for 64--bit bit compatibility?compatibility?

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Summary ObservationsSummary ObservationsAsk yourself some serious questionsAsk yourself some serious questions

What benefit will you derive by rebuilding your platform What benefit will you derive by rebuilding your platform environment?environment?Are you strategically committed to HPAre you strategically committed to HP--UX?UX?Are there other places where your money can be spent Are there other places where your money can be spent more wisely (other than on application migration)? more wisely (other than on application migration)? (security, management, consolidation, business process (security, management, consolidation, business process integration and management integration and management –– for instancefor instance……).).Does your chosen vendor have the expertise to help you Does your chosen vendor have the expertise to help you migrate?migrate?Are the tools and utilities in place to help you migrate?Are the tools and utilities in place to help you migrate?

Give careful consideration to what youGive careful consideration to what you’’re re ultimately trying to accomplish (hopefully itultimately trying to accomplish (hopefully it’’s to s to build information systems that help streamline build information systems that help streamline business process flow)business process flow)

Make your choice on whichever architecture and Make your choice on whichever architecture and approach will help you achieve that objective!approach will help you achieve that objective!

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