The Evoluion Of ISIS Crisis

Group 11Dharnna Sahi FT161034Nikhil M FT161056Roma Chakraborty FT161076Rajdeep Gupta FT162073Komal Agarwal FT164036Nabarun Bhattacharya FT164046Joshua R FT161043

Time-Line Formerly “Al Qaeda” in IRAQ, Morphed into ISIL (Islamic State in IRAQ and the LAVENT), then ISIS (Islamic State in IRAQ and the SYRIA),now IS (Islamic State)

Funded and supported by wealthy Sunni individuals and Government of TURKEY,QATAR & SAUDI ARABIA.

1999: Founded in by Abu Musab Al Zarqawi

2006: Merged with several groups to form the Mujahideen Shura Council.

2013: Renamed itself ISIL on April 8th. 2014: Declared itself an Islamic Caliphate

known as the Islamic State on June 29th.

Founder/Chief – Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi, who is the self declared Caliph of the Islamic Caliphate

IDEOLOGY: ISIS Ain’t NO Crisis

- Main Ambition: Create a united, trans-national pan-Islamic state, a sharia-based caliphate, stretching mainly across Iraq and the Levant region. This includes parts of Syria, Israel, Jordon, Lebanon, Egypt, south Turkey, and the Palestinian territories.

- Difference from Al-Qaeda: ISIS believes in “Apocalypticism” (Final day of Judgement by God)

- Extremist Salafi or Wahabbi school of Islam

- Estimated size of Jihadis: Tens of thousands to 200000.

Groups that support ISIS:

Boko Haram Abu SayyafJund Al-Khailafa

Jemmah Islamiyah

Ansar Bait Al-Maqdis

Governance Model:

Leader : Abu Bakr Al-BaghdadiDeputy Leaders: Abu Muslim Al Turkmani for Iraq Abu Ali Al Anbari for Syria12 governors in Iraq and SyriaSeparate councils to deal with finance, military,

leadership, legal issues, intelligence and media

Crisis in Iraq : Guerrilla war

Over the past one year Iraq has been on the verge of a civil war due to this challenge posed by the ISIS.

Overthrowing the regime of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and the Shia-dominant National Alliance.

Early June: Took over villages and towns in northern Iraq Shias were murdered en masse, houses burnt down, and thousands displaced.

The fall of Mosul (Iraq’s second-largest city and capital of Nineveh province) and Tikrit (a central city about 150 km from Baghdad) came as a major blow to the Iraqi forces fighting the ISIS.

Updated Iraq crisis map

Threat to India?

“Muslims’ rights are forcibly seized in China, India, Palestine, Somalia, the Arabian Peninsula, the Caucasus, Sham (the Levant), Egypt, Iraq, Indonesia, Afghanistan, the Philippines, Ahvaz, Iran, Pakistan, Tunisia, Libya, Algeria and Morocco, in the East and in the West. Prisoners are moaning and crying for help. Orphans and widows are complaining of their plight. Women who have lost their children are weeping. Masajid (plural of masjid) are desecrated and sanctities are violated… Terrify the enemies of Allah and seek death in the places where you expect to find it. Your brothers, on every piece of this earth, are waiting for you to rescue them” - Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

Plan to include many north-western provinces of our country including parts of Gujarat in the planned Islamic caliphate of Khorasan.

Impact Around the Region: Rising ISIS is slowing down trade between Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. Syria

and Iraq bear the brunt of the direct war costs, losing 14% and 16% in per capita welfare(Source: World Bank Report)

Oil pipeline from Kirkuk to Turkey has been stopped due to this conflict. Turkey runs a huge trade surplus with Iraq which will slow down dramatically due to lower demand from Iraq.

Large Number of refugee camps in Jordan and Lebanon has added to the woes of these countries, 20% of Jordan’s Export go to Iraq which is now at halt. Jordan’s Government debt is already at 85% of GDP and in this situation Government has to divert resources towards the mobilization of its army at border.

ISIS controls a small oil fields in the north and some small refineries in Syria, which it uses to finance its operations selling crude oil at steep discounts, in the black market. Oil production under ISIS controlled territory is around 80,000 barrels per day, which nets them a revenue of at least USD $1 million and possibly up to USD $3 million. All this money not only finances its terror network but is also used to expand it.

Economic fallout

Revenues from oil:As per Dubai based energy analysts: revenue from the Iraqi-Syria production is as much as $3 million/daySale of 50000-60000 barrels everyday usually in the Turkish black market.

Revenues from sale of artifacts:2nd largest source of revenueISIS has looted the most ancient monuments and structures in Iraq and Syria and sells the artifacts in the black market

Refugee CrisisThe number of dead and refugees and internally displaced are climbing, and families are constantly torn apart, neighbourhoods turned into war zones thus economies slumped and regional economic ties broke down.

Problem for rest of the worldThe problem for the US and the rest of the industrialised world is that the Middle East controls 60pc of proven oil reserves and with it the keys to the global economy. Should IS capture a major oil field in another country, or overthrow the government, the consequences for energy markets and the financial system would be potentially catastrophic.

Taxation & Extortion:Christians and Foreigners pay JizyaMoney is extorted from truck Drivers, shops and businesses Jewelry and gold merchants are regularly raided and the wealth is plundered

Solutions

Reduce economic disparityReject discrimination along regional and religious linesEquitable distribution of resourcesNip any form of religious extremism in the budAnticipate and address the challenges of the next

generation

References:http://

www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/MNA/extended-summary-impact-of-ISIS.pdf

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/102214/oil-and-terror-isis-and-middle-east-economies.asp

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