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How the British Will Travel 2010

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The Irish Outbound Travel Market

8.1 Introduction

The island of Ireland comprises the independent Republic of Ireland (capital: Dublin) and Northern Ireland (which remains part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland). Unless otherwise stated, use of the terms ‘Ireland’ or ‘Irish’ refer to the Republic only.

Albeit relatively small, the Irish outbound travel market is one of the strongest in Europe. Rising standards of living and increased purchasing power have resulted in a sharp increase in travel abroad and the growth in tourist expenditure. In 2003, visits abroad by Irish residents totalled 4.9 million - up 6.4% compared with 2002, whilst net international tourism and travel expenditure by Irish visitors abroad rose to €4,163 million (up 5.3 percent), capping a decade of almost continuous growth. While the prevailing perception of Ireland is that of a destination rather than a source market, the continuing growth in visits abroad resulted for the first time in 2003 in a negative balance of €58 million on the tourism and travel account.

One of the strongest outbound markets in Europe

Geographical proximity and strong ethnic ties have made the United Kingdom the traditional prime destination for Irish travellers, but travel to Europe is gradually eroding Britain’s position, with holiday travel (notably to the Spanish islands and the southern Mediterranean) acting as the main engine of growth.

UK – the traditional prime destination for Irish travellers

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8.2 Population

In July 2004, the total population is estimated at just under 4 million. In recent years, there has been a steady growth in population (1.16 percent in 2004), fuelled by a relatively high birth rate and a net influx of migrants and returning nationals (see Figure 8.1). With 21 percent aged under 14 years, the Irish population is also one of the youngest in Europe.

One of the youngest populations in Europe

Figure 8.1 Estimated Population, 1998-2004

* Census figure Source: Central Statistics Office, 2004 In 2002, over half (54%) of the total population resided in the eastern province of Leinster. Some 1.1 million people resided in Dublin City and County (by far the largest urban area) and a further 288,000 in the next four largest cities (Cork, Galway, Limerick and Waterford). Of these, Galway has experienced the fastest growth in recent years (see Table 8.2).

*

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Table 8.2 Population of Main Provinces and Cities, 2002 Population Main Cities Leinster - Dublin City & County

2,105,579 1,122,821

Dublin

Munster - Cork City - Limerick City - Waterford City

1,100,614 123,652 54,023 44,594

Cork, Limerick, Waterford

Connacht - Galway City

464,296 65,832

Galway

Ulster (part of) 246,714 No large city Total

3,917,203

Source: Census of Population 8.3 Economy

The Irish economy has been one of the success stories of the past decade. Economic growth averaged a remarkable 8% per year over the period 1995-2002. The global slowdown, especially in the information technology sector, reduced the growth rate to 2.1% in 2003.

The economy has grown at a superior rate to almost all other European countries, whilst maintaining a relatively low inflation rate (3.7% in 2003) and unemployment rate (5% in 2003). This growth has been based upon the development of the high-tech and services sectors. Agriculture, once the most important sector, is now dwarfed by industry and services. The economy has also benefited in recent years from a rise in consumer spending, construction, and business investment. Per capita GDP is amongst the highest in Europe. In 2003, total GDP amounted to an estimated €135 billion and GDP per capita to an estimated €33,874 (see Table 8.3).

Strong economy with low inflation and unemployment rates Total GDP in 2003 amounted to €135 billion



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Table 8.3 Gross Domestic Product (at current market prices), 1999-2002 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 %

change 2002-2003

GDP value (€ million)

89,614

102,845 114,743 129,344 134,786 4.2

GDP per capita (€)

23,929

27,157 29,889 33,021 33,874 2.6

Personal consumption of goods & services* (€ million)

44,372

50,158

55,202

60,118

62,935 4.7

* Expenditure on Gross National Income at current market Prices (€m) Source: Statistical Yearbook – 2004, Central Statistics Office, 2004 8.4 Travel Abroad

Ireland's economic boom has been matched by an increase in outbound travel. The number of overseas visits by Irish residents in 2003 was 4,929,000 compared with 4,634,000 in 2002, an increase of 6.4%. Between 1995 and 2003, the number of overseas visits by Irish residents almost doubled (up 93.5%) while, in the same period, net international tourism and travel expenditure by Irish visitors abroad increased by a remarkable 175% to reach €4.2 billion in 2003.

Almost 5 million overseas visits in 2003

Table 8.4 Overseas Visits and Expenditure, 1995-2003 Visits Abroad

(’000)

Expenditure on Visits Abroad* (€ 000)

1995 2,547 1,516 2000 3,783 2,465 2001 4,216 2,804 2002 4,634 3,224 2003 4,929 4,163 * Net international tourism and travel expenditure by Irish visitors abroad Source: Central Statistics Office



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Route of Travel

Whereas in the past Cross-Channel traffic to Britain dominated the Irish outbound market (with combined sea and air routes to Britain accounting for 53% of visits outside the country in 2000), in recent years there has been expansion on the Continental European route, apparently at the expense of mainland UK destinations.

In 2003, only 45% of all overseas visits were first made on Cross-Channel routes to Britain (of which four-fifths were by air). A further 49% of all visits were on Continental European air and sea routes and the remainder on Transatlantic air routes. It should be noted that there is no breakdown by final destination e.g. what proportion of visits to Continental Europe are made via Britain.

Visits on Continental routes increased by 11.3% in 2003 and those made on Transatlantic routes grew by 25.7%. The number on Cross-Channel routes showed little change compared with the previous year (see Table 8.5).

Reason for Journey

Holiday/Leisure/Recreation is the main reason for Irish residents travelling abroad. The VFR sector is also significant (due to the large number of persons of Irish origin living in Britain) and exceeds by a wide margin business travel as the second most important generator of outbound trips.

Holiday/Leisure/Recreation is the main reason for travel

In 2003, some 58% of all overseas visits were made for the purpose of Holiday/Leisure/Recreation. A further 12% were made for Business reasons and 24% for the purpose of Visits to Friends/Relatives. Holiday/Leisure/Recreation visits increased by 6.3% in 2003 compared with 6.8% for Business visits and 6.5%for visits to Friends/Relatives (Table 8.5).



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Table 8.5 Estimated Number of Overseas Visits by Irish Residents Classified by Route of Travel and Reason for Journey, 1999-2003 (’000) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003* Total Overseas Visits 3,576 3,783 4,216 4,634 4,929 Route of Travel Air Cross-Channel Sea Cross-Channel Continental European Transatlantic

1,618

454 1,276

227

1,577

414 1,550

242

1,670

439 1,864

243

1,825

413 2,190

206

1,825

408 2,438

259 Reason for Journey Business Holiday/Leisure/Recreation Visit to Friends/Relatives Other

594

1,752 958 261

631

1,963 946 243

542

2,402 1,048

224

559

2,706 1,099

270

597

2,876 1,170

287 * Provisional Source: Central Statistics Office Same-Day Visits

In 2003, there were some 176,000 same-day overseas visits by Irish residents compared with some 243,000 same-day overseas visits in 2002.

Length of Stay

The average length of stay for Irish residents going abroad during 2003 was 9.3 nights. In contrast to the prevailing trends in Europe towards shorter holidays, this is little changed since 1999. In 2003, the average length of stay was highest for those travelling on Transatlantic routes (16.9 nights) and lowest for Business visits (7.3 nights) (see Table 8.6).



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Table 8.6 Overseas Visits by Irish Residents - Estimated Average Length of Stay (nights) Classified by Route of Travel and Reason for Journey, 1999-2003 (‘000) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003* All Overseas Visits 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.6 9.3 Route of Travel Air Cross-Channel Sea Cross-Channel Continental European Transatlantic

8.9 6.4 9.7

17.2

9.4 6.8 9.5

16.0

9.4 7.4 9.8

15.6

9.6 8.0 9.3

16.6

8.9 8.2 9.0

16.9 Reason for Journey Business Holiday/Leisure/Recreation Visit to Friends/Relatives Other

6.6

10.0 9.2

12.6

7.1

10.3 9.3

11.9

7.2

10.4 8.9

13.7

7.6

10.0 9.2

11.3

7.3 9.6 8.8

12.9 * Provisional Source: Central Statistics Office Expenditure

Details of expenditure by Irish residents on visits abroad, classified by route of travel and reason for journey are given in Tables 8.7 and 8.8, respectively.

In 2003, total net international tourism and travel expenditure by Irish residents on visits abroad (excluding passenger fare payments by Irish visitors abroad to Irish carriers) amounted to an estimated €4,163 million – an increase of 5.3% compared with 2002. Over half of total expenditure was on Continental European routes, while visits made for the purpose Holiday/Leisure/Recreation accounted for 62% of the total expenditure in 2003. It should be noted that the data in Table 8.8 (but not in Table 8.7) exclude expenditure on Cross-Border travel.

Over €4 million in net international tourism and travel expenditure



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Table 8.7 Visits Abroad by Irish Residents - Estimated Expenditure (including International Fares) Classified by Route of Travel (€ million)

Route of Travel 2000 2001 2002 2003

Air Cross-Channel 1,232 1,265 1,464 1,393 Sea Cross-Channel 172 208 213 220 Continental European 1,382 1,699 2,237 2,452 Transatlantic 402 429 395 521 All Overseas Routes 3,187 3,600 4.310 4,586 Cross-Border 112 121 120 114 Total Expenditure (including international fares)*

3,300 3,721 4,429 4,700

Passenger fare payments by visitors abroad to Irish carriers

495 497 477 538

Total net international tourism & travel expenditure**

2,804

3,224 3,952 4,163

* Provisional ** Revised provisional figure Source: Central Statistics Office Table 8.8 Overseas Visits by Irish Residents - Estimated Expenditure (including International Fares) Classified by Reason for Journey (€ million) Reason for Journey

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Business 556 657 521 581 605 Holiday/Leisure/ Recreation

1,501 1,737 2,205 2,720 2,895

Visit to Friends/Relatives

555 598 678 754 796

Other 180 195 196 255 290 Total Expenditure (including International fares)

2,792 3,187 3,600 4,310

4,586

Source: Central Statistics Office



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8.5 Destinations

The UK is Ireland's most frequently-visited destination due to primarily to its proximity coupled with the large resident population of Irish origin which contributes to a strong VFR market. However, it should be noted that many visitors from Ireland included in the UK arrivals data could be travelling en route to a final destination outside the UK.

UK is Ireland’s most popular destination

United Kingdom

In 2004, Irish residents made over 2.5 million visits to the UK and generated a total expenditure of £760 million. The average spend per visit was £295 (£70 per day) and the average length of stay was 4.2 nights (see Table 8.9).

Table 8.9 Visits by Irish Residents to the UK, 1999-2004 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Change

2003-2004

Visits (’000)

2,075 2,087 2,039 2,439 2,488 2,578 3.6%

Spending (£ million)

594 570 548 674 681 760 11.6%

Average Length of Stay (nights)

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 2.4%

Average Spend per Visit (£)

283 270 265 274 274 295 7.7%

Average Spend per Day (£)

73 72 67 67 69 70 1.4%

Source: International Passenger Survey (Office of National Statistics) In 2002, Holiday visits generated only 23% of total visits by Irish residents to the UK, compared with 37% for the VFR market and 24% for the Business market. Both the VFR market and the Business market each generated more revenue than the Holiday sector (see Table 8.10).



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In terms of both number of UK visits and spending in 2002, Irish residents ranked as the fourth most important generating country, after the United States, France and Germany.

The fourth most generating country

Table 8.10 Visits by Irish Residents to the UK by purpose of visit, 2002 Visits

(‘000) Nights (‘000)


Total Visits 2,439 9,927 674 Holidays of which inclusive tour

556 54

2,246 194

149 14

Business 597 1,726 211 VFR 903 4,723 206 Miscellaneous 383 1,234 102 Source: International Passenger Survey Partly due to the growth of low-cost air services (pioneered by Ryanair) between Ireland and Britain, air routes have overtaken ferry routes as the main choice for UK-bound travellers. In 2002, UK airports handled some 70% of all visits by Irish residents to the UK, with Heathrow (14%) and Stansted (12%) the single most important ports of entry. The large share of the 'Other England' segment can be attributed to the rising number of UK regional airports now serviced from Dublin and Cork (see Table 8.11).

Air travel is the main choice for UK bound travellers

Table 8.11 Visits by Irish Residents to the UK by Port of Entry, 2002 Port of Entry Number of Number of Arrivals

(‘000) Airports Heathrow Stansted Manchester Gatwick Other England Scotland Wales Sub-total

336 289 167 108 669 67 75 1,711



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Port of Entry Number of Number of Arrivals (‘000)

Sea and Channel Tunnel Irish Sea and land routes Other routes Sub-total

681 47 728

Total 2,439 Source: International Passenger Survey, 2003 The 25-34 age bracket represents the strongest market, spending considerably more than any other age group, but taken as a whole the entire 35-54 group performs better, underlining the UK's popularity for that segment of the Irish population (see Table 8.12).

25-34 years – the strongest market

Table 8.12 Visits by Irish Residents to the UK by Spending and by Age Group, 2002 Age Group

Visits (’000)


0-15 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

143 249 684 531 407 305 120

23 56

216 165 95 88 31

Total 2,439 674 Source: International Passenger Survey Northern Ireland

As a source market, the Republic of Ireland is the second largest market (after Great Britain) for Northern Ireland. Having recorded 470,000 arrivals in 1995, the number of visits has declined to 360,000 in 1999 and 340,000 in 2003. In 2003, visitors from the Republic of Ireland accounted for 17% of all visits to Northern Ireland. The average visitor stayed for 2.7 nights and spent £106 during their trip. Some 31% of visitors arrived on holiday, but the VFR market is the largest component, accounting for 37% of visits, compared with 31% who came on Holiday and 19% on Business.



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United States

In 1999, Ireland was ranked the 22nd most important source market for the USA, with almost a quarter of a million arrivals. Between 1993 and 1999 Irish visitors grew by over 100% but, in the wake of the events of September 11, 2001, the number has fallen.

8.6 Inclusive Tours

In 2003, approximately one million summer holiday packages were sold through the members of the Irish Travel Agents Association (ITAA), compared with 919,000 in 2000 and 641,000 in 1999. The ITAA (which represents some 370 retail travel agents and 20 tour operators in the Republic of Ireland) estimates that package holidays account for around one-third of all outbound leisure travel. Rising standards of living and purchasing power have contributed to the enormous increase in package holidays, including a trend towards multiple holiday-taking. The main destinations are Spain (including the Canary and Balearic Islands), with over 600,000 packages sold in 2003, and Portugal (around 150,000). The popularity of Spanish and Portuguese destinations is partly due to their geographical proximity and increased air accessibility in recent years.

Package holidays account for one-third of all outbound leisure travel Main destinations are Spain and Portugal

Other popular summer destinations are Greece (42,000 holiday packages in 2000), Turkey (33,000), Italy (32,000), Tunisia (24,000), Cyprus (19,000), Malta (16,000), and long-haul destinations (31,000). With growing affluence, there has also been an increase in the number of Irish people with second homes abroad, particularly in Spain, Portugal, Cyprus and other Mediterranean destinations.

In addition, some 150,000 winter sun holiday packages were sold through the ITAA in 2003 compared with 136,000 in 2000 and 119,000 in 1999. The main destinations are the Canary Islands and other parts of Spain. Some 50,000 winter ski holiday packages were sold in 2003 compared to 37,000 in 2000. The main destinations are France, Italy and Austria.



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8.7 Tour Operators

Approximately one million package holidays are sold annually in the Republic of Ireland. The Irish market is dominated by two major foreign-owned tour operators: Budget Travel (part of the TUI Group) and Falcon/JWT (part of the First Choice Group).

One million packages sold annually

Budget Travel

Budget Travel is the largest operator in Ireland and began life in 1975 as an independent business before being acquired by Thomson Travel in 1996. Thomson was itself taken over by TUI AG (then trading as Preussag AG) in October 2000.

The largest tour operator in Ireland

Budget Travel now has an annual turnover in excess of €200 million and an estimated 42% market share. Budget Travel's retail division Budget Travelshop is Ireland's leading travel chain, with a network of 30 High Street outlets located around Ireland.

During 2004, Budget Travel is expecting to take close to 400,000 clients to resorts throughout Spain, Portugal, Greece, Turkey, Malta and the South of France as well as to long haul destinations, such as Florida and Barbados, and on cruise vacations.

Falcon/JWT

The Falcon/JWT Holidays conglomerate has been owned by the UK's First Choice since 1995 and benefits from the service of its parent's charter airline. The combined company is estimated to hold some 35% of the Irish inclusive tour market. Falcon/JWT provides package holidays by air to a range of sun destinations, both for the summer and winter seasons. Resorts include destinations in Spain, Portugal, Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, Croatia, Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands.

Falcon/JWT Holidays holds 35% of the Irish inclusive tour market

Falcon Holidays was launched in 1988 and has grown to be the second largest tour operator in both the North and South of Ireland. The main target audience for the Falcon brand are families and non-price sensitive adults. Departures are from Dublin, Cork, Shannon, Knock, Belfast and



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City of Derry airports. JWT Holidays was established (as Joe Walsh Tours) in 1961 and is deemed to have been the pioneer of package holidays in Ireland. JWT was acquired by First Choice Holidays plc in November 1995 following which the brand was re-launched with an image differentiated to suit an adult rather than a family clientele. The brand continues to evolve.

Panorama/ Direct Holidays/ Airtours

After Budget Travel and Falcon/ JWT, the next largest share of the Irish inclusive tour market (estimated at around 15%) is held by Panorama/Direct Holidays/Airtours (all part of the My Travel Group).

8.8 Transport Operators

8.8.1 Ferry Services

Ferry services to/from Britain and Continental Europe for both passengers and motor vehicles are provided via the ports of Dublin, Dun Laoghaire, Rosslare and Cork.

In 2003, Dublin Port alone processed some 1.4 million passengers and 336,500 tourist cars.

The main ferry operators are Irish Ferries; Norse Merchant Ferries; P&O Irish Sea; Seacat; Stena Line; and Swansea Cork Ferries.

Irish Ferries

Irish Ferries is part of the Dublin-based Irish Continental Group which is a shipping, transport and leisure group principally engaged in the transport of passengers, cars and freight on routes between Ireland, the United Kingdom and Continental Europe. The Group also offers travel and holiday packages primarily in France, Britain and Ireland. Group turnover increased from €293.6 million in financial year 2002 to €304.3 million in 2003, while net profit after taxation fell from €21 million to €17.4 million over the same period. Over the last number of years, Irish



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Ferries has invested some €450 million in new fleet and port facilities, and now have the most modern fleet in Europe. Ulysses, the biggest car ferry in the world (with accommodation for nearly 2,000 passengers) operates on the Dublin-Holyhead route. In 2003, Irish Ferries carried nearly 2 million passengers on its four routes to and from Ireland: Dublin-Holyhead; Rosslare-Pembroke; Rosslare-Roscoff; and Rosslare-Chebourg.

Nearly 2 million passengers were carried by Irish Ferries

Norse Merchant Ferries offer over 30 sailings each week between Belfast/Dublin and Birkenhead (Port of Liverpool).

P&O Irish Sea operates a daily service on the Dublin-Liverpool route. The former thrice-weekly service on the Rosslare-Cherbourg route has now been withdrawn.

Seacat Ferry operates between the Irish ports of Dublin and Belfast and the English ports of Liverpool and Heysham, as well as to Douglas on the Isle of Man, or Troon in Scotland.

Stena Line operates a daily service on the following routes: Rosslare-Fishguard; Dun Laoghaire Holyhead; and Dublin-Holyhead. Its new super-ferry Stena Adventurer commenced service on the Dublin-Holyhead route in July 2003.

Swansea Cork Ferries operates regular services between Cork and Swansea and Pembroke in Wales.

8.8.2 Air Services

In 2003, combined passenger traffic at Ireland’s major airports at Dublin, Cork and Shannon amounted to 20.4 million compared with 16.5 million in 1999, an increase of some 24%.

Over 20 million passengers in Ireland’s major airports

In 2003, nearly half (48%) of all passenger traffic at these airports was on the Ireland-Great Britain route compared with 36% to/from Continental Europe; 8% on Transatlantic routes; and 5% on Domestic routes.



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Dublin airport handled some 77% of the combined passenger traffic in 2003 compared with 12% for Shannon and 11% for Cork. Excluding transit traffic (which is relatively more important at Shannon), Cork is now Ireland’s second largest airport in terms of passenger traffic (see Tables 8.14 and 8.15).

Table 8.13 Combined Passenger Traffic at Dublin, Cork and Shannon Airports, 1999-2003 Category 1999 2003 % Change

1999/2003 Transatlantic 1,462,686 1,697,388 16.05% Great Britain 8,725,929 9,870,928 13.12% Continental Europe 4,541,645 7,298,453 60.70% Domestic 1,054,252 1,072,045 1.69% Transit 707,647 500,104 -29.33% Total of which - Dublin - Cork - Shannon

16,492,159

12,802,031 1,501,974 2,188,154

20,438,918

15,856,084 2,182,157 2,400,677

23.93%

23.86% 45.29% 9.71%

Source: Aer Rianta Table 8.14 Passenger Traffic at Dublin, Cork and Shannon Airports, 2003 Category Dublin Cork Shannon Transatlantic 1,011,861 215 685,312 Great Britain 7,948,276 1,208,994 713,658 Continental Europe 6,135,378 696,316 466,759 Domestic 675,662 260,643 135,740 Transit 84,907 15,989 399,208 Total 15,856,084 2,182,157 2,400,677 Source: Aer Rianta 8.8.3 Air Carriers

The two leading Irish-owned air carriers are Aer Lingus, the national airline, and Ryanair, the low fares airline.



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Aer Lingus

Aer Lingus flies around seven million passengers a year, serving about 35 destinations in Ireland, the UK, the USA and Continental Europe.

Since deregulation in 1986, the airspace duopoly enjoyed by Aer Lingus and British Airways has been eroded by the onset of low-cost carriers, which have also taken some of the market share held by ferry services.

Market share has been eroded by low cost carriers

As competition from low-cost carriers low-cost airlines and new carriers drives down fares, Aer Lingus is endeavouring to reduce costs. Having already scaled back employment by one-third, the company announced in July 2004 that it will cut almost another third of the workforce to enable it to further reduce costs and compete against discount carriers, such as Ryanair.

Having faced near collapse in the weeks following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States, when demand for air travel slumped, Aer Lingus returned to profit in 2002 after shedding jobs, attracting more online sales and bringing in more passengers. It nearly doubled earnings the following year.

Aer Lingus has phased out the Boeing aircraft in its fleet and plans on operating only Airbus short-haul jets by 2005. The move is part of the carrier's plan to position itself as a low-fare airline. The Irish Government, which owns Aer Lingus, has equivocated over whether or not to sell a minority stake in the airline. A management-led buyout has recently been raised by the airline's CEO.

Ryanair

Ryanair is Europe's largest low-fares airline, operating 55 routes in 12 countries, serving short-haul, point-to-point routes in Europe from its bases at Dublin, London (Stansted), Shannon, London (Luton), Glasgow (Prestwick), Brussels (Charleroi), Frankfurt (Hahn), Milan (Bergamo) and Stockholm (Skavsta) airports. The company offers approximately 475 scheduled short-haul flights per day serving 13 locations in England,

Europe’s largest low fares airline Approximately 475 short-haul flights per day



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five locations in Ireland, three locations in Scotland, one in each of Wales and Northern Ireland and 60 locations in Continental Europe. At September 20, 2003, Ryanair had a fleet of 67 aircraft. Over the next five years, the company expects to take delivery of an additional 112 Boeing 737-800 aircraft which it is obligated to purchase under existing contracts with The Boeing Company. These deliveries, net of further scheduled retirements and lease terminations, are expected to increase the size of the company's fleet to 153 aircraft by December 2008.

Ryanair’s fleet expected to increase to 153 aircraft

The number of revenue passengers flown increased from 4.85 million in 1999 to 14.43 million in 2003, while Ryanair's profit on ordinary activities after taxation increased 59.2% from €150.4 million in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2002 to €239.4 million in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2003. The increase in profitability was driven by continued strong growth in passenger volumes (due partly to the increase in seat capacity on existing routes) and the launch of a further 29 routes and an additional continental European base during the year. The continued focus on tight cost controls also contributed to the increase in profitability. The great majority (in excess of 94% as of August 2003) of Ryanair's daily flight reservations are made through its website.

€14 million in revenue in 2003 Strong growth in passenger volume and additional routes have increased profitability

Since 1999, Ryanair has more than tripled its number of passengers, number of aircraft and the number of airports that it serves. The airline’s continued growth is materially dependent on its ability to access suitable airports located in its targeted geographic markets at costs that are consistent with Ryanair's low-fares strategy. If growth in passenger traffic and revenues do not keep pace with the planned expansion of its fleet, Ryanair could suffer from over-capacity.

Ability to access suitable airports is key to Ryanair’s continued growth



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8.9 Media

The average net circulation per issue for the principal Irish newspapers for the period 30 June to 28 December, 2003 was as follows:

Dailies

Irish Independent 161,297 Irish Times 115,502 Belfast Telegraph 103,103 (Monday to Friday)

79,827 (Saturday) Sundays

Sunday Independent 292,499 Sunday World 285,503 (all editions) In addition, the main British daily and Sunday newspapers also have substantial sales in Ireland.

8.10 Outlook

There is every reason to believe that, despite the recent slow-down in the rate of economic growth, Ireland will meet expectations of generating over 5 million trips abroad in 2005 and 6-7 million trips by 2010, of which over 2 million will be holiday visits abroad.

Ireland expected to generate 6-7 million trips by 2010

Data Sources

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) is the main source of data for outbound tourism flows. Using data from the Country of Residence Survey and the Passenger Card Inquiry, the CSO provides a breakdown of travel abroad by purpose of journey, area of residence, average duration of stay and expenditure, but no longer gives a breakdown of final destinations by country. Since 1999 the classification of journey purpose has been in accordance with that of the World Tourism Organization (WTO) - business/ holiday/ leisure / recreation / VFR / other. All amounts in CSO tables are now given in euros while those quoted from the UK’s International Passenger Survey data are in sterling.



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The Irish Travel Agents Association (ITAA) supplies information on package purchases, using data collected by Aer Rianta in respect of passenger departures at Dublin, Cork and Shannon airports. The ITAA membership comprises some 370 retail agents and 20 tour operators, representing approximately 80% of all travel retailers in the Republic of Ireland.

© Tourism Intelligence International

How the British Will Travel 2010 271

Future Outlook

The British travel market is experienced and mature. Tour operators have proven themselves to be very adaptable, providing the flexibility that their customers increasingly demand.

The number of British outbound travellers is forecasted to increase by an average annual rate of 1.74% from 2002 to 2010. In 2002, there were 64.8 million outbound travellers and this is forecasted to grow to 70.7 million in 2006 and 74.4 million by 2010.

9.1 Preferred Destinations 2010

Based on the findings of the Tourism Intelligence International’s Tour Operator Survey (2004), where top tour operators from the Association of British Travel Agents’ (ABTA), representing more than 50% of the industry, were systematically interviewed, complemented with the most recent available trend reports published by some of the Tour Operators surveyed, the following forecasts have been prepared for British overseas travel. Tour operators were asked to indicate which destinations would experience the most rapid growth for the next five years and which countries would be considered to be an absolute winner for their company within the next five years.

Tour operator survey reveals top holiday types in greatest demand in the next five years

Leading tour operators provided the following overview in Table 9.1 below, as to what destinations they consider to be absolute winners for the next five years and why.

9

© Tourism Intelligence International 9: Future Outlook


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Table 9.1 Top 10 destinations to be considered to be absolute winners Destination Reasons why this destination will be a winner 1 Cuba Unspoilt Caribbean, interest value of Havana, hotel rates not

impacted by the American market

2 Egypt

Great value, diving, interest of pyramids, Nile option for cruises etc, good new hotels

3 Turkey

Non-Euro, so good value and not too far to fly, more adventurous than Spain but accessible to all

4 Croatia

The place of the moment, chic and beautiful, war has been forgotten (finally) so the mass market is going back and as volumes are still a long way below pre war levels, there is a lot of room for growth

5 Bulgaria

Very good value and a lot of new hotels being built so prices should stay low relative to the rest of Europe

6 Mexico

Caribbean style holiday but with more culture, good value outside of American peak

7 Vietnam

Forecast to be the next Thailand so has a lot of growth opportunities, currently mainly cultural but will grow as a beach destination so increase volume

8 India

Huge growth in Goa particularly due to the great value

9 Thailand

Big destination with increasing scheduled capacity and possibility of charter capacity being added, easiest Asian destination to visit so appeals to mass market

10 Tunisia

Good beach destination offering low cost holidays

Source: Tourism Intelligence International Tour Operator Survey, 2004 Once again Europe has been signaled as the top performer for the next five years, by the Tour Operators.

Europe has the greatest growth potential

The main destinations in Europe that UK tour operators considered to the greatest growth potential were Turkey, Northern Cyprus, Bulgaria, Croatia, other Eastern Europe and Germany.

France is still, of course, the number one destination for British day-trippers. Innovative

France still number one

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incentives by the ferry companies, the Channel Tunnel and Eurostar have ensured that the customer is still well served with value and choice. Shopping is a big draw. Research has shown that over two million Britons travel to France to shop according to the ONS Travel Trends, 2003. North America (USA and Canada) came in the second spot for the second time around. Florida, Washington DC and Hawaii occupied some of the top spots in USA whilst Toronto and Montreal claimed the top positions in Canada.

9.2 Countries with the Most Rapid Growth in the Next 5 Years

The following countries are expected to have the most rapid growth (in passenger numbers) in the next 5 years (see Table 9.2).

Table 9.2 Countries to Experience the Most Rapid Growth Region Countries to Experience Most Rapid

Growth Europe

Turkey, Northern Cyprus, Bulgaria, Croatia, other Eastern Europe (incl. Slovenia, Poland), Germany

North America

USA (Florida, Massachusetts, Washington DC, Hawaii), Canada (Toronto, Montreal)

Caribbean

Cuba, Dominican Republic

South & Central America

Mexico, Brazil, Argentina

Southern Africa

South Africa, Zimbabwe, Mozambique

Other Africa

Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Kenya, Libya

East Asia/Pacific

India, China, Japan, Bali, Borneo, Vietnam, Indonesia

South Asia Thailand, Vietnam

Middle East

Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Other UAE, Jordan, Bahrain, Oman



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Region Countries to Experience Most Rapid Growth

Other

Kerala (India), Maldives, Seychelles, Mauritius

Source: Tourism Intelligence International Survey, 2004 9.3 Trends 2010

While the above mentioned results indicate only a snap-shot of the overall market developments, the ABTA Trends Report for 2003, listed the following new popular destinations:

China - As China opens up more of its countryside to tourists, as it floods the spectacular Three Gorges in the Yangtze River, interest in the country has risen to unprecedented levels. In 2002, many operators saw a substantial increase in demand to see the Gorges before they were lost forever. In fact, cruises will still be possible in the area, but the landscape will, of course, fundamentally change. Experts predict that the Dam itself is set to become a major attraction.

Flooding of the Three Gorges has increased demand for viewing before they are lost forever

The Oscar winning film ‘Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon’ has also highlighted China’s mystic heritage, which has helped increase interest in the country’s history, and as a result, operators have laid on specially created tours.

Mexico - On the edge of the Caribbean, Mexico has become a major player for Britons when it comes to winter sun. Fabulous diving, beaches and ancient civilisations offer something for everyone. The new film ‘Once Upon a Time in Mexico’, launched in Spring 2003 and the blockbuster Aztec exhibition at the Royal Academy would no doubt exert great influence on travel there.

Fabulous diving, beaches and ancient civilisations are major attractions in Mexico

Croatia - Before the tragic civil wars in Yugoslavia, the country attracted 500,000 UK visitors a year. Most went to the beautiful Italianate resorts of Dubrovnik, Split and Rovign on the Dalmatian coast along what is now Croatia. The hundreds of idyllic islands dotted along this coast make for perfect sailing, and the crystal clear sea and the good value for money,

Idyllic islands make for perfect sailing along the coast of Croatia



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has meant that the country has experienced steep growth in the number of visitors in the past few years. The region before the wars had aimed to attract mass tourism, but now development has taken a more up market approach. Eastern European EU countries - Ten new countries have joined the EU in 2004 – some are already popular holiday destinations - but others in Eastern Europe may benefit from the increased recognition EU membership will bring. Relevant laws for tourism and travel are being brought into line to harmonise with the legislation that is already in place across the existing 15 states and although the climate is at best unpredictable, there is much to excite cultural and outdoor adventurers.

The countries, which include Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, the Czech and Slovak Republics, Poland and Hungary, have all experienced turbulent yet fascinating histories particularly during the twentieth century when both communism and World War 2 had profound impact. Now these countries have thrown off the constrictions of communism and have reunited themselves with historic heritages while embracing a modern outlook.

Stunning architecture and medieval towns are featured throughout each country, and much has been painstakingly restored. In addition vast amounts of countryside with, forested mountains, rolling plains and thermal waters negate much of the Eastern Bloc stereotype.

Some highlights include: The Czech Republic - Prague is already phenomenally popular as a short city break, but most Brits do not venture outside of the capital despite the fact that the country boasts fairy-tale castles, chateaux, manors and well-preserved medieval towns. The transport network is excellent and prices are substantially lower outside Prague.

The Czech Republic boasts of fairy tale castles, chateaux, manors and well preserved medieval towns

Slovakia - The capital Bratislava is tipped to be the ‘new Prague’ – and is only 55 km from Vienna. The old town is blessed with baroque



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architecture, excellent museums, galleries and a thriving café scene. The country itself also boasts distinctive architecture with 150 castles and chateaux, while forested mountain ranges, national parks, sandstone canyons and nature reserves dominate the Slovakian landscape. Slovaks have been particularly careful to preserve their costumes, musical and dance heritages. Hungary - is also full of historical and architectural treasures, and Budapest - a former imperial city – has impressive boulevards and its Castle District is full of pastel houses and narrow streets. Thermal waters lie near to the surface, so many visitors make for the spa hotels in Budapest to enjoy mud treatments from the The Hévíz thermal lake.

Poland - The largest country in Eastern Europe, has a history, which is both tumultuous and fascinating. Warsaw, Krakow and Auschwitz are all cities with traumatic stories to tell. But the country is now an easy and attractive destination and has experienced a large amount of regeneration and restoration. Poland’s mountains and Baltic coast are a haven for bikers, hikers and explorers.

Poland’s mountains and Baltic coast are a haven for bikers, hikers and explorers.

Slovenia - The most affluent of the former Yugoslav countries, Slovenia has an amazing variety of settings to go along with its Habsburg Empire and Venetian Republic heritage. Bled Castle is perhaps the most well-known tourist attraction, but the country has a small but charming coastline, the Julian Alps and an extraordinary array of caves.

Bulgaria - Although it is not joining the EU, many Tour Operators are already offering Bulgaria as a mainstream destination and expect that the great beaches and cheap prices will provide the draw.



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Puerto Rico - With the rise in popularity of the Spanish Caribbean, Puerto Rico has the advantage that it has long been a hub for Caribbean Islands. For lovers of Cuba, San Juan’s nightlife rivals Havana and can also boast centuries-old fortresses. Puerto Rico is a country full of contrasts and fusions reflecting its American, African, British and Spanish influences. Phosphorescent bays, rain forests, and mountains are just as much a part of Puerto Rico as the high rise buildings of San Juan and Ford Mustangs.

Puerto Rico is a country full of contrasts and fusions reflecting its American, African, British and Spanish influences

South America - Interest in Latin America over recent years has grown significantly over the last three years and with better connections, regional air passes and improving hotel networks, South America is becoming easier to explore. Ecuador, Peru, and Brazil lead the way for first time visitors. Ecuador is a nature-lover’s paradise with the unsurpassed wildlife diversity of the Galapagos Islands, the snow-capped peaks of Avenue of Volcanoes and tropical rainforests. Peru is best known for the Inca mountain hideaway of Machu Picchu, while the home of Samba, Iguassu Falls, the Amazon Basin, the beautiful beaches of Rio de Janeiro and the beautiful game, pulls the crowds to Brazil.

Ecuador – a nature lover’s paradise Peru – popular for ancient civilisations Brazil’s main attractions are the Amazon, beaches of Rio and samba

The Kuoni Long Haul Report 2004 from the leading UK Tour Operator for long-haul travel, shows that Thailand has regained its No. 1 place as leading long-haul destination from the Maldives, while the next most popular long-haul destination, the USA, has pushed Sri Lanka in 4th position (see Table 9.3).

Thailand is the leading long-haul destination



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Table 9.3 Kuoni Top 20 Holiday Destinations Year / Destination

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Thailand 1 1 1 1 2 1 Maldives 2 2 2 2 1 2 USA 5 3 4 6 5 3 Sri Lanka 4 4 3 3 3 4 Egypt 7 5 5 4 4 5 Hong Kong 3 6 6 8 17 10 Dubai 11 7 9 5 6 6 Singapore 6 8 7 10 15 7 Malaysia 9 9 10 9 12 8 Kenya 10 10 8 7 11 11 Indonesia 8 11 11 16 - - Barbados 13 12 17 11 7 13 St Lucia 15 13 13 13 13 16 Mauritius 18 14 15 12 8 9 Mexico 14 15 12 15 14 18 Antigua 17 16 18 14 9 14 Australia 16 17 14 17 16 12 Cuba 12 18 20 19 10 17 China 19 19 19 20 - - India 20 20 16 - 20 15 Jamaica - - - 18 18 20 South Africa - - - - 19- - New Zealand - - - - - 19 Source: Kuoni Long Haul Report 2004 The main region that gained market share during 2003 was the Indian Ocean; perceived as safe and “out of the harms way”, the tranquil islands fared very well, particularly the Maldives. An indication for 2004, however, that increases in pricing for the Indian Ocean, combined with return of pent-up bookings to the Far East, are slowing demand in 2004.

Thailand’s drop to second place last year, was the first time in Kuoni Travel’s 37-year history that a Far East country had not been in the top slot. This in indicative of the massive impact SARS had upon Asian tourism, but also reflects the widening choice of the long-haul world. The strong appeal and strength of the Far East has asserted itself, and Thailand has already fought back post-SARS to regain pole position for this



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year. The Caribbean islands were the other key beneficiaries of SARS, partly as a result of being seen as safe havens and Barbados spear headed the way (with strong Tourist Board support), reaching its highest ever position at No. 7. The fastest grower in this region was Cuba; aided by the return of Cubana and Air Jamaica’s direct service to Havana, which achieved a fantastic 74% increase in numbers and leapt from No. 19 to No. 10.

According to Sue Biggs, Managing Director of Kuoni UK, the Caribbean should be sitting even higher, as the region has so many wonderful attractions to recommend it. But whilst there are some notable and very welcome exceptions, its further growth has been hampered by a continuing lack of investment in hotel infrastructure, a lack of attention to service training and too few destination promotions to boost the awareness and image of this lovely region. This is particularly noticeable with strong competition from the Indian Ocean, Dubai and the Far East.

Apart from the Indian Ocean and the Caribbean, the USA started its climb back from 9/11 and showed a relatively small growth of 7.5%. As a result of proactive marketing campaigns and the weak dollar, the USA continues to perform well in 2004.

Australia, New Zealand and the South Pacific had an even better year. Helped by a combination of perceived safety off the beaten track, offering a good alternative to the Far East with great value for money, plus Lord of the Rings and the Rugby World Cup, the countries o this region enjoyed increases of anything from 11 to 36%.

This was only beaten by South Africa, that stormed ahead in the success ratings, chalking up an incredible 86% growth to enter the Kuoni’s Top 20 for the first time ever at No. 19. This is primarily thanks to its superb value for money (caused by a weakened Rand in 2003) and its fantastic combination of scenery, wildlife, activities and good hotels.



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Last but not least, India returned to Top 20 in 2003, after having dropped out of Kuoni’s ranking due to security concerns, but seem to be now in the past and bookings to India are up by more than 50%. It is predicted that the Indian market will see significant growth in 2004, as a result of new charter flights to Delhi.

Furthermore, Kuoni reports that there is a huge amount of volatility in today’s long-haul world – virtually all countries listed above are now showing a return to positive growth. Only Bali and Kenya remain down; the former caused by the rather puzzling ongoing Foreign Office Advice still advising against British travel there into a second year, and Kenya, where the Foreign Office advice has now been lifted, but the fears caused as a result are still affecting forward bookings.

All others are reflecting the resilience of the British market and have increased by anything up to 24%. The destinations that are expected to do particularly well this year are the Far East, India, the USA and the Arab destinations (especially Dubai and Morocco). So too will off the beaten track and emerging destinations such as Zambia, Vietnam, Cambodia and Nepal.

The Far East, India, USA, Dubai and Morocco are expected to do well

Luxury holidays continue to go from strength to strength with World Class hotels, spas and flight upgrades building on their strong growth of 2003. Family long-haul will get stronger still – ever since 9/11 it seems families have been happier staying together, often in top quality villas within hotels. House parties are also growing in the “Big Events” arena where more and more people are taking their friends and family away with them to celebrate a big birthday or anniversary. Bookings get later and the demand for new experiences and something new to talk about remains insatiable.



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9.4 What Tourism Destinations Need to do to Attract More British Tourists

As indicated by market leader TUI, ‘Price, Quality, Security, Diversity and Amenities’ determine the general requirements for success.

The Thomson Future Holiday Forum, a future-gazing study of how holidays are set to change over the next 20 years, held in London earlier this year, highlighted that new societal trends mean we will expect different things from our holidays.

The following key trends in sustainable tourism are important factors to keep in mind for tourism destinations, if they want to continue to be successful in attracting British tourists:

9.4.1 Sustainable Understanding

Less than 1% of people seek out sustainable holidays now, but this number will grow to 5% over the next 20 years. As people’s understanding of the issues surrounding sustainable tourism grows, the negative impact of mass tourism will detract from the holiday experience leading holiday companies to offers breaks that protect or benefit the environment. Schemes such as a global accreditation scheme for sustainable tourism may be created making information about more responsible holidays more readily available.

9.4.2 Social Awareness

There is already an existing trend towards people wanting to experience local cultures and this is set to continue. More holidaymakers want fulfilment and rejuvenation rather than places and things – this new social awareness results in increased interest in cultural connections with local people and the differences and the sensitivities that surround such experiences. Large holiday companies must be seen to be benefiting local economies throughout the purchasing chain, as consumers will demand sustainability policies and corporate responsibility from holiday groups.



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9.4.3 New Tourist

The ‘new tourist’ of the future will use local guides, eat in local restaurants, source quality local produce, take small group cultural/environmental excursions and be sensitive to clean and pristine environments. He/she will have a heightened appreciation of cultural differences and sensitivities. Tour companies must add a new dimension to the quality and added value element of holidays but reducing the negative impact of tourism and enhancing the positive. Tour Operators will ‘tell the story behind the destination’ in an evocative way to re-connect the buyers with the local seller.

Thomas Cook indicated the following requirements: • Good value – hotel rates and outside of the

hotel – the British hate feeling ripped off • Range of quality – do not build only 5 star

hotels as the British mass market needs different price levels and many are not prepared to pay 5 star prices

• Hotels built near other facilities – British

do not like to feel isolated and like to wander out from the hotel to other bars and restaurants

• Marketing – the best growth is achieved if

the destination becomes talked about such as Croatia and Bulgaria so marketing is very helpful to grow business

“[British Tourists are] becoming more adventurous so like a bit of culture, but most of the holiday is still relaxing by pool or beach”.

According to Lastminute.com, tourism destinations need to present a resort that is of high quality, affordable and safe. People are starting to treat holidays as commodities and so look for good value. To travel to new destinations they need to feel that they are getting value and that their holidays will be enhanced.



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Finally, Trailfinders vindicated to offer customers that extra something to set themselves apart from the crowd. “Many tourists want to incorporate an adventure/activity aspect into their trip. People constantly want a different holiday experience and to experience people and customs different to their own while maintaining their preferred level of comfort. High-end and luxury holidays are a vastly growing market for British holiday-makers and tailor-made itineraries are also highly desirable, so the flexibility of a destination is important and not tying people into set-night package deals”.

9.5 What are the Three Holiday Types to be in Greatest Demand in the Next 5 Years

According to market leader TUI-UK, the three holiday types that are likely to be in greatest demand in the next five years are [generally speaking]: Cruises, Self-Package Holidays and Package Holidays.

More specifically, these segments have been described as follows during the ‘Thomson Future Holiday Forum’

9.5.1 Cruises

The number of people from the UK taking cruises could triple from a record of just over 1 million passengers in 2003 to more than 3 million in 2024. Cruising will more frequently be considered as a holiday option by young people in their teens, 20s and 30s.

Cruise ships will become floating entertainment centres of the future, featuring sports areas, theme parks, IMAX cinemas, virtual reality games and concert halls. In fact, everything that people enjoy doing as part of everyday life, regardless of the scale, will be found on board.

Family-themed cruise ships will be like Centre Parcs afloat, with landscaped pools, archery and scooters to move around the ship. There could even be underwater cruises - a chance to see beneath the ocean as you travel between destinations.



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The cruising experience will become far less formal with more affordable options available. In 20 years, it is possible that passengers will go self-catering on cruise ships with small kitchenettes in their cabins, buying food and drink from on board supermarkets and dressing for dinner will be thing of the past.

Note: the launch of EasyCruise in 2005, based on the same principle as EasyJet, EasyRentacar, etc., is going to break with the traditions of the cruise industry, making cruising much more affordable and flexible for a younger and more independent travellers.

9.5.2 The Real Holiday Experience

There is set to be a huge growth in watching and playing sport on holiday, including less mainstream sports, such as rodeo in Las Vegas, surfing trips to Hawaii, and snowboarding championships in Colorado.

The next 20 years will also see a surge in demand for adrenaline sports and desire for ‘real’ experiences – such as whale watching and swimming with dolphins. ‘Experiences’ will be increasingly packaged up and available meaning that holidaymakers will be constantly looking for the next big thing. Relaxation holidays involving yoga, spas and ayurvedic treatments will also become more mainstream.

9.5.3 More Affordable Long-Haul Holidays

The world is getting smaller, so there will be no limits to the holiday options available in 20 years time. It will also be possible to go further and faster with the development of the Cosmoplane – a new generation successor to Concorde by 2024. The prediction is that people will be jetting off for a weekend in New York for £50 or a week in Australia for £99.

There is already a boom in 4-day short breaks – these types of holiday are showing a 10% annual growth which will continue to expand. Extended weekend breaks to long-haul destinations such as Rio, Moscow and Cape Town will become the norm. No frills air travel will no longer be



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confined to short-haul, making destinations such as the Middle East and South America cheaper and more accessible. 9.5.4 Mobile-Free, ‘High Touch’ Beaches

As hand-held technology takes off, the desire for freedom from mobile phones and other devices will become paramount when people go on holiday. Thomson predicts that as a result ‘phone free beaches’ will become commonplace in 20 years time.

You may see beaches categorized as Quiet Beaches, Party Beaches, Family and Activity Beaches, as they become customised to meet the specific needs of future holidaymakers.

9.6 Destinations of the Future

Qatar is expected to become a mainstream holiday destination in the next 20 years, featured by up to 50 holiday companies. UK tourist numbers will grow tenfold from just 150,000 in 2002 to 1.5 million in 5 years, and are expected to far exceed that figure by 2024.

Families will be attracted by traditional holiday activities like sea, beach and sun, while the country positions itself as offering ‘The Real Arab Experience’. Qatar’s government plans major investment in promotion in the UK and on holiday facilities specifically for families. Only hours away, the middle eastern country could become the new Canaries.

Ljubljana and other cities and resorts in Slovenia, Croatia and Montenegro will appeal to a new generation of travellers who do not remember the Yugoslav conflict.

Towns and cities that once few people had heard of will become mainstream. Access will be easier and cheaper with the growth in no frills flights. Holidaymakers looking for ‘the new Prague’ can combine sightseeing, excellent food and skiing based in alternative beautiful city.



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Slovakia’s entry into the EU, has made the country more accessible for people wanting to get a way from traffic, pollution and stress. The destination is shaping up to become the short-haul equivalent of New Zealand by developing a niche for outdoor adrenaline sports.

Tourists could travel to Slovakia for activities such as bungee jumping, jet boating and tandem skydiving in the future. It will also meet a growing demand for ‘well-being’/spa breaks and nature activity holidays, featuring climbing, hiking and horse riding.

Brazil’s potential as a hugely popular, mass-market holiday destination is vast but is dependent on improved infrastructure and hotel development. The country has all the ingredients for a perfect holiday – great beaches, the Amazon rainforest and incredible cities like Rio. A fledgling package holiday market is set to grow with more flights and lower prices.

Where backpackers go first, more traditional holidaymakers follow. Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan are two central Asian countries expected to grow in popularity as grandchildren follow in the footsteps of their hippy grand parents and travel along the Silk Road.

Already the world’s 5th most popular tourist destination according to the World Tourism Organisation, China will attract more holidaymakers as it becomes more accessible and affordable. The country is predicted to be the most visited nation in 20 years time, due to its culture, history and natural beauty.

9.7 Summary

In summary, it can be seen that the UK market will continue to grow well into 2010 and that many countries and regions of the world will benefit.

The UAE, New Zealand, China, France and Australia stand to benefit the most from UK travel to 2010 as the forecasts showed the greatest potential average annual growth for these



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countries. The UAE and China for example, are relatively new holiday destinations but are making heavy inroads into the travel market. France, whilst being a traditional mainstream destination for British travelers, still has great potential for expansion to the British outbound travel market (roughly 25% of British travelers made at least one trip to France as at 2002).

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