The Internet: Where did it come from, what are the

challengesDr. Les Cottrell SLAC, Stanford University

School on Space Weather/GNSS-GIS-Intensive computing Basic theory and hands on experience

10-21 November 2014, Koudougou, Burkina Faso

2

Agenda

SLAC Colloquium

• Brief history of the Internet and its goals,

• Design goals

• How it has grown,

• Growth & Success

• Current challenges

• Internet NG

• What is driving the changes

1961 Vision from the Bell Phone System

IT Operations August 2012

3

You mean two business machines

thousands of mile apart actually talk to each other by

telephone

Someday there will be as much

communication between business

machines as between people

Ad from June 1961 Boys’ Life Magazine

The Start of the Internet as we know it today• 1965: Larry Roberts and Thomas Marill create the first

wide area connection via telephone lines, turns out to

be inefficient and costly.

• Kleinrock & others predicts

that packet switching

more promising

1969: the original Internet created and had 4 nodes, UCLA, Stanford Research Institute, MIT, Utah, 50kbit backbone (today scaled up a billion times)

5

Early days

IT Operations August 2012

1982: Today’s TCP/IP protocols formalized

1983: 400 nodes,

Now 750M nodes (many more hidden behind

Firewalls and home routers etc.)

1972

6

Design Goals: 1

IT Operations August 2012

• Built as a collaboration of global proportions, independent stand on own, self managed autonomous systems, decentralized (chaotic, no central control/management cf. phone system),

• Best effort, no guarantees, recovery from losses, pipelining host flow control, checksums

• non-proprietary (c.f. phone system, later network protocols: IBM’s System Network Architecture, Digital Equipment’s network, Xerox Network Services…),

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Design Goals: 2

SLAC Colloquium

• Little focus on security • Few encryption standards until 1977

• Private/public key system not until 1976

• Needed an open system to test things

• There was little to protect

• Simple black boxes: routers (blue boxes) connect nets

do not retain detailed information about individual flows or contents,

• Packets inside envelopes, layering

independent of each other, e.g. middle layers don’t know if lower layers are wireless, satellite, copper, fibre

8

Growth in % population having Internet access

SLAC Colloquium

Factor of 1,500 growth in users in 17yrs

9IT Operations August 2012

Growth: users

– Maps from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/8552410.stm

Most future user growth from developing nations

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Cartogram of Internet penetration

SLAC Colloquium

11IT Operations August 2012

Growth: Devices2013: 8.7Billion devices plugged in to Internet [Forbes]

• In 10 years factor 100 growth

• cell phones & other new classes of consumer electronics

(eBooks, tablets, Internet TV, digital picture frames …), Internet

of things,

• Even bigger is machine to machine (Internet of Things) - smart grids for energy management, smart cities, surveillance

& public safety, traffic & parking control, cars, and sensor nets

…).

12IT Operations August 2012

Growth: bandwidth

Voice

Traffic

1997 breakpoint

1970 1980 1990 2000

1Tbps

1Mbps

1Gbps

1kbps

1Pbps

Max switchSpeed

Internet Traffic, Voice traffic, Max Trunk speed, Max switch speed

2010

2000: data overtakes voice

Trunk speed doubles every 22 months, 50kps 1970 =>

100Gbps today1997: Multiplex multiple colors

over single fibre

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International Internet Bandwidth Growth 2008-2012

Annual growth > 40% in last few years

i.e. as much capacity added in 2012 as was available in

2008

www.telegeography.com/research-services/global-bandwidth-research-service/index.html

From Telegeography

14IT Operations August 2012

Compare today with 50 years ago

If we compare the IBM Stretch supercomputer of the early 1960’s

with today’s smartphone we can see we have come a long way:

• Smartphone is much smaller, i.e. it fits in the hand versus 2500

sq. feet;

• Smartphone weighs 5 oz. versus 40,000lbs;

• Smartphone uses 10,000 times less power;

• Smartphone ~ 3000 times more compute power

• Stretch $8M, smartphone few hundred $

30 ft long

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Supercomputing growth

http://www.top500.org/

• Top machine pass

10PFlops in 2011

• US still dominates,

followed by China, UK

and FrancePer

form

ance

10EFlops10EFlops

1GFlops

Sum

#1

#500

VendorsPerformance Share

/China/Japan

/France

16IT Operations August 2012

Growth in connectivity1972

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Amazing scalability Success

• The Internet has successfully scaled from a few users

to over a billion and speed increases of seven orders

of magnitude (56kbps=>100Gbps backbone)

• From a research and education

network to a commercial network

used worldwide

However there are challenges…

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Challenge: Internet growth

IT Operations August 2012

8 orders of magnitude growth in devices in 50 years

Population: WikipediaInternet Users: Internet World StatsDevices/user: CiscoInternet devices: Cisco

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Challenge: demands for adddress space

SLAC Colloquium

• Internet users in developing world

• Devices per person (smart phones, tablets,

wearable devices…)

• Monitoring of equipment,

humans (e.g. medical), animals

• Machine to machine (typical

car today has 16 IP addresses)

• Smart homes, smart cities, traffic,

surveillance, safety, security, power grids …

• 99% of electronics in the world today still not

connected to the internet.

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Challenge: Address space

SLAC Colloquium

• IPv4 address space 32 bits ~ 4 billion addresses fine for

initial usage but IANA ran out Feb 2011, APNIC Apr 2011- Recognized in 1991: By-passes evolved: private addresses (e.g.

NATs), CIDR blocks etc. - Even with that will run out in next couple of years

• Initially mainly a problem for later Internet deployment

regions (China, India, Malaysia …).

• Africa best off of regions, runs out in 2019 • Not backward compatible, not as mature as IPv4 (target

for crackers), will run both for many years so added

complexity,

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Example of lack of addresses

Sburkina Fas , University of Koudougou, Nov 2014

22SLAC Colloquium

Challenge: MobilityComputers used to be big and did not move

As move need to change IP addresses

• Topology can change

Need persistence across links going up &

down

• Delay & disruption tolerance (e.g. for space

flights)

Mesh, sensor nets, self-organizing networks

• Bad guy may join, e.g. military position overrun,

enemy gets device, pretends to be friend

23SLAC Colloquium

Challenges: Trust – slide 1 Initial trust relationship badly broken • Not everyone has everyone else’s best interest in mind

• Organized crime, state sponsored intelligence gathering,

cyber-warfare

• Akamai observed (3Q12) attack traffic originating from 180

unique countries/regions. China top ~33%, followed by US

(13%) & Russia (5% traffic)

This is compounded with:• Naïve OS’, unpatched systems, browsers, users

• Routing mistakes (e.g. black holes)

24SLAC Colloquium

Challenges: Trust – slide 2

Freedom of information vs privacy (e.g. wikileaks)• Google/Yahoo … (has your emails), Facebook have a good

idea of who your friends are where you live, work, spend your

free time, your health, love life, political leaning

• Branching out into your realtime (Global Position System) to

give your location

• Nowhere to hide anymore

Lack of tools for strong authentication needed for Grids & cloud computingPrevalence of viruses, worms, malware, Trojan horses, Denial of Service

25SLAC Colloquium

Challenge: SPAM

Unsolicited pitches for things such as

drugs (> 60%), dating, stocks, malware

(few %) …

US leads as source of spam Sent by botnets

Networks of compromised computers, millions worldwideLocated mainly in Europe (esp East), Russia, US and India

88% of all email, 150B emails/day (Cisco)

Due to spam filters only 20% of mail received by users is spam

Huge Annual losses due to viruses for a typical 1,000-user organization will amount to over $158,000 (Radicati Group).

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Challenges: Capacity and net neutrality

• Does this lead to ISP

inspecting and limiting

traffic

by customer

• Leading to loss of net

neutrality

File sharing

Internet videoTV Internet video

Web data

What are the

drivers?

Can Capacity keep

up with demand

principle that Internet service providers and governments should treat all data on the Internet equally, not discriminating or charging differentially by user, content, site, platform, application, type of attached equipment, and modes of communication- Wikipedia

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Challenge: How to change it

SLAC Colloquium

Despite the new Internet Protocol (version 6 or

IPv6) being > 15 years old, it carries < 2% traffic

How to redo a functioning production network

critical to the global economy while it continues to

run

• “Creation was completed in 6 days, but no

installed user base”

• The Internet has been smoothly taking over from

the phone network

• How does it happen next time?

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Internet NG – slide 1

SLAC Colloquium

To borrow from John Lennon: "Imagine there's no

latency, no spam or phishing, a community of trust.

Imagine all the people, able to get online from

anywhere at any time".The goal is audacious: • To create an Internet without so many security breaches, with better

trust and built-in identity management.

• Researchers are trying to build an Internet that's more reliable, higher

performing and better able to manage exabytes of content.

• And they're hoping to build an Internet that extends connectivity to the

most remote regions of the world, perhaps to other planets.

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Internet NG – slide 2

SLAC Colloquium

Future InterNet Design (FIND) funded by

NSF to get and implement a vision for

2020

•Launched 50 projects ($0.5-1M) in 2006, now

(2010) being narrowed down to 2-4 with up to

$9M

•Similar initiative from Europe

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How have things changed (not your fathers Internet anymore):

Sburkina Fas , University of Koudougou, Nov 2014

Youth of today brought up with very different expectations:

• what’s a wired phone, a payphone, a modem, typewriter, encyclopedia;

• => messaging, Google searches, Multimedia Internet, video communication

(YouTube), Internet access everywhere, mobility, virtual worlds, social

networking (Facebook, Twitter), video games, shared information (anyone

can publish)

And they are tomorrow’s leaders.

In 1998 75% of all Internet users were Americans, now < 15%.

2014 global IP traffic will exceed 767 Exabytes (10^18, ¾ zettabyte)

• CAGR 34% 2009-2014

• 2014 avg monthly traffic = 32M people streaming Avatar movie in 3D

continuously for whole month

Web pages quintupled in size since 2003, objects/page increase by 14%/year,

response time bad for low bw users, for others bw kept pace

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Internet’s Impact on development

SLAC Colloquium

• Brief history of the Internet and its goals,

• how it has grown,

• today’s major challenges,

• and future research. • The impact of the Internet on development,

• The Internet Today

• How Africa has lagged the world,

• Why does it matter?

• Is the performance for Africa improving, will it catch up?

32SLAC Colloquium

How does the Internet assist development?

• Investment in information technology plays the role of a

"facilitator" that allows other innovations to take

place. http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1093/is_3_45/ai_86517828/

• World Bank / IFC report: for every 10% increase in

high-speed Internet connections there is an

increase in economic growth of 1.3 percentage

points.  http://www.infodev.org/en/Article.522.html

• Example: Uganda 15% increase in price of maize

based on improved farmer bargaining power. www.itu.int/ITU-D/.../S1-01-NG-ICT_Indicators-Tim_Kelly.pptx

• A study reported by Akamai showed that 80 new jobs are

created for every 1,000 new broadband connections

Human Development Index (HDI)

SLAC Colloquium

• HDI from United Nations (UN) International Telecommunications

Union (ITU)

• composite statistic of life expectancy, education, and

income 

HDI

Th

rou

ghp

ut i

n k

ilob

its/s

ec

10,000

1,000

1010

100

Source: HDI UN/ITUThroughput SLAC PingER project

Top right = GoodNote correlationAfrica (blue) behind

The Internet: What nextDr. Les Cottrell SLAC, Stanford University

School on Space Weather/GNSS-GIS-Intensive computing Basic theory and hands on experience

10-21 November 2014, Koudougou, Burkina Faso

35

Drivers

Sburkina Fas , University of Koudougou, Nov 2014

• Social media: • 1.3B Facebook users spend on

average 21 mins/day on Facebook

• 500M tweets/day (factor 10 since 2010)

• Youtube: 1M users, 4B videos viewed/day in 2012

Video:• IPTV 11% Internet traffic in 2013• IP Video 66% of Internet traffic

20101980 20001990$0,01

$1.00

$100

$10,000

$1,000,000 Hard Disk Cost/ GByte

Komorowski

• In 2000 361M users, end 2014 3Billion

• Disk storage 1980 $300,000/Gbyte => 2014 $0.04/Gbyte, almost

factor 10Million

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Drivers: Devices

Sburkina Fas , University of Koudougou, Nov 2014

• Mobile ,

• Machine to Machine (M2M) (Internet of Things (IOT))

Source; CiscoNumber in parentheses are % in 2013 and 2018

Global Devices

Traffic by Devices

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Result

Sburkina Fas , University of Koudougou, Nov 2014

• Annual global IP traffic will pass the zettabyte (1,000

Exabytes=1Million Pbytes = 1Billion GBytes) threshold by

the end 2016

• IP traffic is growing fastest in the Middle East and Africa,

followed by Asia Pacific. Traffic in the Middle East and Africa will

grow at a CAGR of 38 percent between 2013 and 2018.

ExaBytes/month

140

70

0

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Enablers

Sburkina Fas , University of Koudougou, Nov 2014

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More Information & questions

Sburkina Fas , University of Koudougou, Nov 2014

Video predictions from Cisco

• www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-481360_ns827_Networking_Solutions_White_Paper.htm

l

Predictions from Network

World

• http://www.networkworld.com/news/2010/010410-outlook-vision-predictions.html?page=1

Future Internet

• www.networkworld.com/news/2010/010410-outlook-vision.html?ts

Map of Internet penetration 1998-

2010

• news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/8552410.stm

cottrell@slac.stanford.eduSLAC National Accelerator Lab,2575 Sand Hill RoadMenlo Park, CA 94025

40

Africa

SLAC Colloquium

• Brief history of the Internet and its goals,

• how it has grown,

• today’s major challenges,

• and future research. • The impact of the Internet on development,

• Africa

• How Africa has lagged the world,

• Why does it matter?

• What has soccer got to do with it?

• Is the performance for Africa improving,

will it catch up?

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Why does it matter to Africa

SLAC Colloquium

Cartograms from:www.geog.qmw.ac.uk/gbhgis/conference/cartogram.html

• African scientists isolated• Lack critical mass

Area=Internet Users 2002

• Need network to collaborate but it is terrible

Tertiary Education

So we have: Brain drain

Instead we need:• Brain gain, tap diaspora• Blend in distance learning• Provide leadership, train

trainers

Area=scientific papers

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Exhaustion of IPv4 addresses

Sburkina Fas , University of Koudougou, Nov 20142009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

4%

3%

2%

1%