The International Rice Market in 2012/13 and Medium term ... · challenges for rice trade The...
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slide 1 TCI INVESTMENT DAYS 17 -18 DECEMBER 2012 Concepción Calpe Secretary of the Intergovernmental Group on Rice Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Trade and Markets Division [email protected] The International Rice Market in 2012/13 and Medium term challenges
Transcript of The International Rice Market in 2012/13 and Medium term ... · challenges for rice trade The...
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TCI INVESTMENT DAYS
17 -18 DECEMBER 2012
Concepción Calpe
Secretary of the Intergovernmental Group on Rice
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Trade and Markets Division
The International Rice Market in
2012/13 and
Medium term challenges
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The Rice market in 2012/13 in a nutshell
Global rice production in 2012 to rise by 0.9% to 730 Mt (487Mt, milled) (3% in 2011)
World rice utilization in 2012/13 to rise by 8Mt to 476Mt; per caput food levels up slightly to 56.9 kg
Global rice closing inventories to be built up by 8Mt, to 170Mt in 2012, the highest on record
Rice trade in 2012 to surge to a new record of 37.7Mt
International prices in 2012 retreated somewhat from the record achieved in 2011, but remaining far above pre-2008 levels
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Global paddy production in
2012 to grow by less than 1%
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• Paddy Production to reach 730 Mt (487 Mt, milled) in 2012, up 0.9% from 2011 • All of the increase to rely on an area expansion to 163 M ha • Average yields steady at 4.47 t/ha
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2012 Paddy production up for all major
producers except India and Brazil
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PADDY RICE 2000-2002 2010-2012 Change 2011 2012 F Change
Million tonnes % Million tonnes %
World 590.6 718.7 22 723.8 729.4 1
China 181.8 201.8 11 202.5 205.7 2
India 125.1 150.1 20 156.5 150.0 -4
Indonesia 51.3 67.1 31 65.8 69.0 5
Bangladesh 37.3 50.8 36 50.7 51.3 1
Viet Nam 33.0 41.9 27 42.3 43.4 3
Thailand 27.3 35.5 30 34.5 36.0 4
Myanmar 21.7 30.3 40 30.0 30.0 -
Philippines 12.9 17.2 34 17.0 18.0 6
Brazil 10.8 12.3 14 13.6 11.6 -15
Japan 11.4 10.5 -8 10.5 10.5 -
USA 9.3 9.5 2 8.4 9.0 7
Pakistan 6.6 8.6 31 9.2 9.4 2
Countries ranked according to their position in 2010-2012 average production
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Rice production still concentrated in
few major producing countries
Others
Vietnam
Bangladesh
Indonesia
India
China31%
21%6%
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2000-2002
Others
Vietnam
Bangladesh
Indonesia
India
China28%
21%7%
6%
29%
9%
2010-2012
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Africa paddy production to grow
by 4% in 2012
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Paddy Production in Africa to rise by 4% to 26.4 Mt (17.3 Mt, milled) in 2012
Sizeable increases expected in Egypt, Mali, Nigeria, Sierra Leone
Declines in Madagascar, Benin and Cameroon, due to storms or excessive rain
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Rice Paddy Production in Africa
Egypt Nigeria Madagascar Mali Others
million tonnes
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Africa paddy production to grow
by 4% in 2012
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Paddy Production in Africa rising by 3.7% p.a. since 1982, by 4.3% since 2002
Sector in the region sustained by strong growth in western Africa (3.9%; 7.1%)
Rice also becoming popular in East Africa (2.7%;5.5%)
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Africa rice production up
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Africa West Africa
East Africa Southern Africa
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LAC paddy production to
contract by 6% in 2012
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Paddy Production in LAC to drop by 6 percent to 27.4 Mt (18.3 Mt, milled) in 2012, due to insufficient water and non-remunerative prices
Outputs falling in Argentina, Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador and Uruguay
Large increases in Mexico, Paraguay and Peru
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Rice Paddy Production in Latin America and the Caribbean
Brazil Colombia Peru Uruguay Others
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Short and medium term
challenges for rice production
Resources becoming scarcer (land, water, capital and labour)
Expansion in new geographical areas relying on development assistance and/or large scale investment (land grabbing?)
Climate change – extreme events – call for adaptation Yield differences remain very wide across countries
and relative to their potential Growing number of initiatives focusing on post harvest
activities, such as processing, storing and distribution Sector remains subject to intense policy intervention
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Trade in rice deepening
Trade in rice to grow by 3.4% to 37.7MT in 2012
Trade accounting for 7.8% of world output. The share was less than 5 percent until the early 1990s
This “deepening” of the market reflects the growing reliance of countries on world trade to meet their needs or sell their surpluses
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Exports Shares of Production
million tonnes, milled eq. %
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Major rice exporting countries
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RICE 2000-02 2010-12 Change 2011 2012 F Change
million tonnes, milled equiv. % million tonnes, milled equiv. %
World 25.0 35.2 41 36.4 37.7 3
Thailand 7.0 8.8 25 10.7 6.7 -37
Viet Nam 3.4 7.2 113 7.1 7.7 8
India 3.3 5.4 63 4.8 9.2 90
USA 2.9 3.5 20 3.2 3.3 2
Pakistan 2.0 3.2 63 3.1 3.0 -2
Cambodia 0.1 1.1 1684 1.1 1.2 9
Brazil 0.0 1.0 3638 1.3 1.2 -8
Uruguay 0.7 0.9 17 0.9 0.9 -4
Argentina 0.4 0.7 89 0.8 0.7 -11
Myanmar 0.6 0.6 10 0.8 0.7 -11
China 2.4 0.6 -76 0.6 0.4 -19
Egypt 0.5 0.4 -29 0.2 0.4 85
Countries ranked according to their position in 2010-2012 average production
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Rice trade still dominated by five
major exporting countries
Others
Pakistan
USA
India
Viet Nam
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2000-2002
Thailand
Others
Pakistan
USA
India
Viet Nam
Thailand 25%
21%12%
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2010-2012
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Major rice importing countries
RICE 2000-02 2010-12 Change 2011 2012 F Change
million tonnes, milled equiv. % million tonnes, milled equiv. %
World 24.8 35.2 42 36.4 37.7 4
Nigeria 1.7 2.4 47 2.4 2.8 17
China 0.6 1.8 187 1.2 3.0 159
Indonesia 2.2 1.7 -22 2.8 1.3 -54
Philippines 1.0 1.5 56 1.2 1.0 -13
Iran Isl. Rep. of 0.9 1.3 40 1.2 1.6 33
Iraq 1.1 1.3 15 1.2 1.4 8
EU 0.7 1.2 64 1.2 1.3 8
Saudi Arabia 0.8 1.2 43 1.2 1.3 4
Côte d’Ivoire 0.6 1.1 81 1.1 1.2 9
Malaysia 0.6 1.0 80 1.0 1.1 7
South Africa 0.6 0.9 44 0.9 1.0 11
Bangladesh 0.5 0.8 78 1.5 0.3 -77
Countries ranked according to their position in 2010-2012 average production
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Others
Europe
Latin America & Car.
Near East in Asia
Far East in Asia
Africa 30%
29%
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2000-2002
Others
Europe
Latin America & Car.
Near East in Asia
Far East in Asia
Africa 32%
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Africa absorbing a larger share of
rice imports
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China (mainland) turns into a
large rice net importer
China traditionally imported high quality rice and exported low quality rice
In 2010, China becomes a net rice importer
in 2012, China arises as the second most important destination for rice trade
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Exports Imports Net imports
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Short and medium term
challenges for rice trade
The international rice market becoming less thin and more integrated geographically
Emerging rice suppliers (Brazil, Russia, Myanmar, Cambodia), but exports still very much concentrated
Several traditional importers engaged in ambitious SS schemes (e.g. Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Nigeria)
China becoming an increasingly important destination, along with African countries
Rice imports and exports subject to numerous government interventions, with state trading still playing an important role in rice
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World rice carry over stocks to
increase further
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Stocks (left axis) Utilization (right axis)
Production (right axis)
million tonnes, milled
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million tonnes, milled
equiv. Total rice consumption in 2012/13 to reach 475Mt (+1.4%)
Production forecast to surpass consumption by 10Mt, resulting in larger carryover stocks.
Stocks set to expand to 170Mt, representing 35.5% of projected needs in 2013/14
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Stocks held by the five major rice
exporters highest in ten years
Inventories held by India, Pakistan, Thailand, the USA and Viet Nam forecast to increase from 42Mt in 2012 to 45Mt in 2013
The stock-to-disappearance ratio to rise from 26% to 27%, the highest in the decade
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International rice prices remain
much higher than before 2007
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Thank you
FAO Rice Market Group
Trade and Markets Division Economic and Social Development Department
Concepción Calpe (Senior Economist) Tel. 39-06570554136 - Fax 39-0657054495
E-mail: [email protected]
Shirley Mustafa (Economist) E-mail: [email protected]
Berardina Forzinetti (Research Assistant)
E-mail: [email protected]
