The Interagency Fuels Treatment DecisionThe Interagency ......The Interagency Fuels Treatment...
Transcript of The Interagency Fuels Treatment DecisionThe Interagency ......The Interagency Fuels Treatment...
The Interagency Fuels Treatment DecisionThe Interagency Fuels Treatment Decision Support System (IFT-DSS)
H. Michael RauscherProject Manager
Joint Fire Science Programg
John Cissel, Timothy SwedbergCommunications Director and Program Manager
Joint Fire Science ProgramJoint Fire Science Program
Tami H. Funk, Sean M. Raffuse, Stacy Drury, Lyle R. Chinkin Sonoma Technology, Inc.gy
Petaluma, California
October 2009
908038-3587
Overview of Presentation
• Brief introduction and backgroundBrief introduction and background• What does IFT-DSS do?
H i IFT DSS l t d t th t ?• How is IFT-DSS related to other systems?• The stakeholder operational environment• The vision for organizing fire related
software
2
Introduction and BackgroundSoftware Tools and Systems (STS) StudySoftware Tools and Systems (STS) Study
Software
IFT-DSSArchitecture
DesignSoftware Engineering Instituteperformed strategic analysis of
Sonoma Technology, Inc.
IFT-DSSConceptual
Design
Current Practices& Needs Assessment
Fuels Treatment Planning Decision Support Process
Define project, vegetation data,landscape and scale
Define projectanalysis
Retrievevegetation,
geophysical,& weather data
Generatesummaryreports
Definearea of interest
(AOI)
View/manipulatedata as needed
Fuels Treatment Planning Decision Support Process
Define project, vegetation data,landscape and scale
Define projectanalysis
Retrievevegetation,
geophysical,& weather data
Generatesummaryreports
Definearea of interest
(AOI)
Definearea of interest
(AOI)
View/manipulatedata as neededView/manipulatedata as needed
ArchitectureStudy Graphical User Interface
(User Interaction)
Control Database(Business Process Control)
Dispatcher(Business Process Management & Information Flow)
Data and Software Services(Business Services)
Geospatial Database(Data Storage and Access Service)
Graphical User Interface(User Interaction)
Graphical User Interface(User Interaction)
Control Database(Business Process Control)
Control Database(Business Process Control)
Dispatcher(Business Process Management & Information Flow)
Dispatcher(Business Process Management & Information Flow)
Data and Software Services(Business Services)
Data and Software Services(Business Services)
Geospatial Database(Data Storage and Access Service)
Geospatial Database(Data Storage and Access Service)
performed strategic analysis ofproblem space
Document
Design treatment strategies
Simulate & analyzefire behavior
Current year datapreparation & quality control
Simulate alternateweather
scenario(s)
= human mediated action
Simulate vegetation,geophysical, and fuel conditions
landscape, and scale
Analyze fire effectsand/or risk
Simulate & analyzefire behavior
Treelistdata
LANDFIREdata
View/assessvegetation
data
Update treelistdata (FFE-FVS)
Imputationanalysis
ConsiderDisturbance
Updatedvegetation
data Prepare data forinput to fire behavior
model
Generatesummaryreports
UpdateLANDFIRE data
View/assessoutputdata
Generatesummaryreports
View/assessoutputdata
Meets geophysical,sociological, ecological
target conditions?
YESAnalysis complete
generate finaldocumentation
Performbenefit/lossrisk analysis Identify/prioritize
treatmentareas
Develop compositeindex of values
affected
Generatesummaryreports
Inputvalues at
risk
Selecttreatment
areas
Selecttreatments
to apply
FFE-FVS
FCCS
Simulate post-treatment vegetation
and fuels data
Manualadjustment
FFE-FVS
FCCS
Generatesummaryreports
NO
Design treatment strategies
Simulate & analyzefire behavior
Current year datapreparation & quality control
Simulate alternateweather
scenario(s)
= human mediated action
Simulate vegetation,geophysical, and fuel conditions
landscape, and scale
Analyze fire effectsand/or risk
Simulate & analyzefire behavior
Treelistdata
Treelistdata
LANDFIREdata
LANDFIREdata
View/assessvegetation
data
View/assessvegetation
data
Update treelistdata (FFE-FVS)
Imputationanalysis
ConsiderDisturbance
Updatedvegetation
data
Updatedvegetation
data Prepare data forinput to fire behavior
model
Generatesummaryreports
UpdateLANDFIRE data
UpdateLANDFIRE data
View/assessoutputdata
View/assessoutputdata
Generatesummaryreports
View/assessoutputdata
View/assessoutputdata
Meets geophysical,sociological, ecological
target conditions?
YESAnalysis complete
generate finaldocumentation
Performbenefit/lossrisk analysis
Performbenefit/lossrisk analysis Identify/prioritize
treatmentareas
Identify/prioritizetreatment
areas
Develop compositeindex of values
affected
Develop compositeindex of values
affected
Generatesummaryreports
Inputvalues at
risk
Inputvalues at
risk
Selecttreatment
areas
Selecttreatment
areas
Selecttreatments
to apply
Selecttreatments
to apply
FFE-FVS
FCCS
Simulate post-treatment vegetation
and fuels data
Simulate post-treatment vegetation
and fuels data
Manualadjustment
Manualadjustment
FFE-FVS
FCCS
Generatesummaryreports
NO
Recommendations:SOA framework neededBlueSky on right trackJFSP funds BlueSky SOA as test
STS Study – Phase I STS Study – Phase II
JFSP funds BlueSky SOA as test
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar2007 2008 2009
February 2007 February 2008 June 2008 March 2009
3
yInitiation of
Phase I of theSTS Study
yConclusion ofPhase I of the
STS Study
Initiation ofPhase II of the
STS Study
Conclusion ofPhase II of the
STS Study
STS Phase III Plan
• Dec 2009: Proof of Concept v 1 ready forDec 2009: Proof of Concept v.1 ready for the Savannah Fire Ecology Conference
• May 2010: Proof of Concept version of• May 2010: Proof of Concept version of IFT-DSS completedO t 2009 N 2010 L t t t• Oct 2009 – Nov 2010: Long term contract team assembled and contract put out for bid ith F t S i ibid with Forest Service as managing partner
4
Current State of the Fuels Treatment CommunityCommunity
• Currently an assortment of data softwareCurrently an assortment of data, software applications and systems
Not all are accessible to the communityM t bl ifiMost are problem-specificSome are comprehensive but only
support specific data and use-casesIt is difficult to “string” them togetherIt is difficult to string them togetherNot always supported
5
Current State of the Fuels Treatment CommunityCommunity
• What does this mean for the userWhat does this mean for the user community?
Users use what they knowUsers use what they knowUse tools that are user-friendly, simpleMay not know that other tools existLimited guidance on which to use
Summary of Survey Respondents
Bureau of Land
~90%
nden
ts
~90%
nden
ts
A lot of time is spent “stringing” tools together for specific purposes
A lot of time is spent acquiring and preparing data
National Park Service
13
Bureau of Land Management
11
~10 20%
~20-50%
Perc
ent o
f Res
pon
~10 20%
~20-50%
Perc
ent o
f Res
pon
preparing dataFish & Wildlife
4
Forest Service 19BEHAVE FOFEM, FIREFAMILY+,
FARSITE, FLAMMAP,FMA+, FVS/FFE,
RERAP, NEXUS,CONSUME, FRCC,SIS, FFI/Firemon,
~10-20%PBEHAVE FOFEM, FIREFAMILY+,
FARSITE, FLAMMAP,FMA+, FVS/FFE,
RERAP, NEXUS,CONSUME, FRCC,SIS, FFI/Firemon,
BEHAVE FOFEM, FIREFAMILY+,FARSITE, FLAMMAP,
FMA+, FVS/FFE,
RERAP, NEXUS,CONSUME, FRCC,SIS, FFI/Firemon,
~10-20%PIFT-DSS must facilitate the most
difficult and time consuming
6
Total Responses = 47 LANDFIRE data,ArcGIS
WIMS data,Google Earth
LANDFIRE data,ArcGIS
WIMS data,Google Earth
LANDFIRE data,ArcGIS
WIMS data,Google Earth
gtasks to ensure success
Current State of the Fuels Treatment CommunityCommunity
• What about the existing comprehensiveWhat about the existing comprehensive systems that “string” models together?
ArcFuels, INFORMS, LANDFIRE-IFP = VERY USEFUL SCIENCE
- Some are agency specificSome require “expert” knowledge- Some require expert knowledge
- Do not address all fuels treatmentuse cases
User groups are smallSystems are not widely adopted
Do not facilitate collaborationSystems don’t “talk” to each other
7
Systems don t talk to each other
Overview of Presentation
• Brief introduction and backgroundBrief introduction and background• What does IFT-DSS do for Users?
H i IFT DSS l t d t th t ?• How is IFT-DSS related to other systems?• The stakeholder operational environment• The vision for organizing fire related
software
8
IFT-DSS is designed to solve these 7 fuels treatment issuestreatment issues
1 Locate needed data and prepare it for use1. Locate needed data and prepare it for use
2. Find high fire hazard areas within an area of interest
3. Analyze placement of fuels treatments spatially
4. Gauge fuels-treatment effectiveness over timeg
5. Support prescribed burn planning
6. Support risk assessment = f(prob(ignition) & value gain/loss)
7. Support user created solutions for unique situations
9
Fuels Treatment Planning Decision Support Process
Define project, vegetation data,landscape, and scale
Define projectanalysis
Retrievevegetation,
geophysical,& weather data
Generatesummaryreports
Definearea of interest
(AOI)
View/manipulatedata as needed
Fuels Treatment Planning Decision Support Process
Define project, vegetation data,landscape, and scale
Define projectanalysis
Retrievevegetation,
geophysical,& weather data
Generatesummaryreports
Definearea of interest
(AOI)
Definearea of interest
(AOI)
View/manipulatedata as neededView/manipulatedata as needed
Treelistdata
LANDFIREdata
View/assessvegetation
data
Update treelistdata (FFE-FVS)
Imputationanalysis
ConsiderDisturbance
Updatedvegetation
data Prepare data for
Generatesummaryreports
U d t
Treelistdata
Treelistdata
LANDFIREdata
LANDFIREdata
View/assessvegetation
data
View/assessvegetation
data
Update treelistdata (FFE-FVS)
Imputationanalysis
ConsiderDisturbance
Updatedvegetation
data
Updatedvegetation
data Prepare data for
Generatesummaryreports
U d tU d t
Simulate & analyzefire behavior
Current year datapreparation & quality control
input to fire behaviormodel
UpdateLANDFIRE data
View/assessoutputdata
GeneratesummaryreportsSimulate & analyze
fire behavior
Current year datapreparation & quality control
input to fire behaviormodel
UpdateLANDFIRE data
UpdateLANDFIRE data
View/assessoutputdata
View/assessoutputdata
Generatesummaryreports
Simulate alternateweather
scenario(s)Simulate & analyzefire behavior
View/assessoutputdata
Meets geophysical,sociological, ecological
target conditions?
YESAnalysis complete
generate finaldocumentation
Generate
Inputvalues at
risk NO
Simulate alternateweather
scenario(s)Simulate & analyzefire behavior
View/assessoutputdata
View/assessoutputdata
Meets geophysical,sociological, ecological
target conditions?
YESAnalysis complete
generate finaldocumentation
Generate
Inputvalues at
risk
Inputvalues at
risk NO
Analyze fire effectsand/or risk
Performbenefit/lossrisk analysis Identify/prioritize
treatmentareas
Develop compositeindex of values
affected
summaryreports
risk NO
Analyze fire effectsand/or risk
Performbenefit/lossrisk analysis
Performbenefit/lossrisk analysis Identify/prioritize
treatmentareas
Identify/prioritizetreatment
areas
Develop compositeindex of values
affected
Develop compositeindex of values
affected
summaryreports
riskrisk NO
Design treatment strategies
Selecttreatment
areas
Selecttreatments
to apply
FFE-FVS
FCCS
Simulate post-t t t t ti
FFE-FVS Generatesummary
Design treatment strategies
Selecttreatment
areas
Selecttreatment
areas
Selecttreatments
to apply
Selecttreatments
to apply
FFE-FVS
FCCS
Simulate post-t t t t ti
Simulate post-t t t t ti
FFE-FVS Generatesummary
10= human mediated action
Simulate vegetation,geophysical, and fuel conditions
treatment vegetationand fuels data
Manualadjustment FCCS
reports
= human mediated action
Simulate vegetation,geophysical, and fuel conditions
treatment vegetationand fuels data
treatment vegetationand fuels data
Manualadjustment
Manualadjustment FCCS
reports
Overview of Presentation
• Brief introduction and backgroundBrief introduction and background• What does IFT-DSS do for Users?
H i IFT DSS l t d t th t ?• How is IFT-DSS related to other systems?• The stakeholder operational environment• The vision for organizing fire related
software
11
Many Systems - Little Interactiony y
Fuels Systems ReportingSystems
Non-FuelsS tSOA Web-based
EMDS/HFPAS
Systems Systems
FPA FPAiRWin
SOA Web based
National
Regional NFPORS
Others
WFDSSBLUESKY
Regional
Sub-Regional
Project Level IFT-DSS
Base Models & DataStand alone
Project Level
Fl M LANDFIRE
IFP-LANDFIRE
INFORMSARCFUELS
RegionalSub-Regional
P j t L l
FlamMapFOFEMCONSUMEFVS/FFENEXUS
LANDFIREWIMSFFI/FIREMONFSVegFAMWEB
12
ARCFUELSProject Level FMA+FCCS…….
…….
Overview of Presentation
• Brief introduction and backgroundBrief introduction and background• What does IFT-DSS do?
H i IFT DSS l t d t th t ?• How is IFT-DSS related to other systems?• The stakeholder operational environment• The vision for organizing fire related
software
13
Th St k h ld O ti l E i t
Fire and Fuel
The Stakeholder Operational Environment
Fire and Fuel Operations Managers
(Users)
I t F l
Scientist Developers
(Service Providers)
Governance through
Agency Senior Management
includingN W C G Interagency Fuel
Treatment Decision Support System
Coordination Team(Coordinators)
Providers)N W C G(Leaders)
DatabaseStewards
InformatiionTechnologists
14
(Service Providers)
gand Software
Managers(Enablers)
What Does IFT-DSS Do for Stakeholders?
• Advantages for UsersUniversal access and version control through the Internet– Universal access and version control through the Internet
– Easy access to the necessary available data– Choice of software tools from a common interface– Easy setups for the most common analysesEasy setups for the most common analyses– Custom solutions for advanced users for unique situations– A single Graphical User Interface to master
• Advantages for Service Providers– Provides developers with software-software communications
standards– Allows developers to improve functionality behind the scenes– Provides developers instant access to a large user community– Reduces the cost of developing and fielding software tools
U t t ti ll t t d l i di ll
15
– Useage reports automatically sent to developers periodically
What Does IFT-DSS Do for Stakeholders?
• Advantages for the IT/Software ManagersEnsures that security requirements are met– Ensures that security requirements are met
– Ensures that agency IT policy has been followed
• Advantages for the Governance Community• Advantages for the Governance Community– Organizes all fuels management software services into a single
SOA system making supervision manageable– Enables informed management decisions on funding, expansion g g, p
of functions, and prioritization of effort– Enhances ability to provide guidance on process and quality
controlIncreases agency operating capabilities by focusing scarce– Increases agency operating capabilities by focusing scarce resources on high priority functions
– A Proof of Concept test case, along with WFDSS and Bluesky, of whether a few SOA systems can organize all or most fire
l t d ft t l
16
related software tools
The Diffusion of IFT-DSS Awareness & Use in a Stakeholder CommunityUse in a Stakeholder Community
Late Majority800
Awareness
UnderstandingEarly Majority
100
Early Adopters
Trial Use
Adoptiony p
44
Innovators 13
17
Overview of Presentation
• Brief introduction and backgroundBrief introduction and background• What does IFT-DSS do?
H i IFT DSS l t d t th t ?• How is IFT-DSS related to other systems?• The stakeholder operational environment• The vision for organizing fire and fuels
related software
18
Vision for the Fire & Fuels Community y
Fuels treatment planners have a needand they use what they knowand they use what they know
19
Scientists and data providers create tools
Vision for the Fire & Fuels Community y
New technologies allowexisting tools to be wrapped
(standard interfaces)
20
Scientists and data providers create tools
Vision for the Fire & Fuels Community y
Standardized interfaces
e.g., IFT-DSS e.g., WFDSS
Standardized interfaces also allow inter-system
communication
21Scientists and data providers create tools
Vision for the Fire & Fuels Community y
User communities
InformaSOA Systems
IFT-DSS WFDSSBlueSky
ation Techn
(IFT-DSS, BlueSky, WFDSS, …..)
nology & GCommon Interface
S d d
Governance
Capabilities/Services
Standards(allows for connections)
22Scientists and data providers create tools
e
Capabilities/Services(algorithms, models, data)
Acknowledgementsg
• John Cissel and Tim Swedberg (JFSP)g ( )• Erik Christiansen (NWCG FMC)• JFSP fuels treatment work group• JFSP fuels treatment work group • STS Study advisory committee• 49 field fuels treatment specialists• ~15 software developersp• IT specialists
23
Documentation produced from the STS Study can be found at:http://frames.nbii.gov/JFSP/STS_Study
IFT-DSS Online Documentation
• Complete Documentation of all products produced by the IFT-DSS project can be found online:found online:
– frames nbii gov/jfsp/sts study– frames.nbii.gov/jfsp/sts_study
• Mockup version of the Graphical UserMockup version of the Graphical User Interface is available:
24
– staging.sonomatech.com/iftdss
Appendix: Workflow Scenariospp
Intended to capture the problem-solving needs of the fuels treatment analysis and planning community
Includes:• Data acquisition and preparation• Strategic planning
S ti ll li it f l t t t i t• Spatially explicit fuels treatment assignment• Fuels treatment over time• Prescribed burn planning• Prescribed burn planning• Risk assessment
25
Data Acquisition and Preparation (1 of 2)q p
Objective: Acquire, prepare, and assure the quality of vegetation data for use in fuels treatment planning.
Vegetation/Inputs Vegetation/Fuels Data Types Workflow Outputs
Tree-lists FSVeg point data FSVeg spatial user upload
Growth Imputation QC/edit Current, complete fuels data forupload
Gridded fuels LANDFIRE user upload QC/edit
fuels data for further analysis
26
Data Acquisition and Preparation (2 of 2)q p
Objective: Acquire, prepare, and assure the quality of vegetation data for use in fuels treatment planningvegetation data for use in fuels treatment planning.
27
Strategic Planning (1 of 3)g g ( )
Objective: Identify high fire hazard areas within an area of interest and identify where further analysis may be warranted based on potential fire hazard. High fire hazard is expressed by high potential fire behavior and/or undesirable fire effects.
Inputs Vegetation/ Fuels Data Types Workflow Outputs
Current, complete fuels; topography
Tree-list Polygon data
LANDFIRE grid data
Fire Behavior Fire Effects QC
Maps and data of fire behavior and fire effects
28
Strategic Planning (2 of 3)g g ( )
Objective: Identify high fire hazard areas within an area of interest and identify where further analysis may be warranted based on potential fire hazard. High fire hazard is expressed by high potential fire behavior and/or undesirable fire effects.
29
Strategic Planning (3 of 3)g g ( )
Example of strategic planning output
30
Spatially Explicit Fuels Treatment Assignment (1 of 3)Treatment Assignment (1 of 3)
Objective: (1) Simulate fuels treatment placement in areas of hi h fi h d ithi f i t t d (2) i l t thigh fire hazard within an area of interest and (2) simulate post-treatment influences on fire behavior and fire effects potentials.
Inputs Vegetation/Fuels Data Types Workflow Outputs
Fire Behavior/Effects/MTT User Treatment Fire Behavior/Effects/MTT Maps and data of Treatment Fire Behavior/Effects/MTT
Fire Behavior/Effects/MTT FVS Treatment Fire Behavior/Effects/MTT
Current, complete fuels; topography
Tree-list polygon data
LANDFIRE Fire Behavior/Effects/MTT TOM
treatment locations; pre- and post-treatment fire behavior and fire effectsFire Behavior/Effects/MTT TOM
Fire Behavior/Effects/MTT effects
31
Spatially Explicit Fuels Treatment Assignment (2 of 3)Treatment Assignment (2 of 3)
Objective: (1) Simulate fuels treatment placement in areas of hi h fi h d ithi f i t t d (2) Si l t thigh fire hazard within an area of interest and (2) Simulate post-treatment influences on fire behavior and fire effects potentials.
32
Spatially Explicit Fuels Treatment Assignment (3 of 3)Treatment Assignment (3 of 3)
Example of fuels treatment optimizationP t t t P t t t tPre‐treatment Post‐treatment
33
Simulated fireline intensity for a hypothetical landscape. Light colored areas indicate low fireline intensity potentials and dark colors represent high fireline intensity potentials (from Finney et al., 2006).
Fuels Treatment Effectiveness Over Time (1 of 3)Over Time (1 of 3)
Objective: Evaluate the temporal durability of fuels treatments; i h l i d d ill ii.e., how long, in years to decades, a treatment will continue to lower potential fire behavior and fire effects.
Inputs Vegetation/Fuels Data Types Workflow Outputs
Current, Tree-list polygon data Growth Fire Behavior Fire Effects Graphs and data
of fuels firecomplete fuels; topography
User supplied data
Growth Fire Behavior Fire Effects Growth…
of fuels, fire behavior, and fire effects over time
34
Fuels Treatment Effectiveness Over Time (2 of 3)Over Time (2 of 3)
Objective: Evaluate the temporal durability of fuels treatments; i h l i d d ill ii.e., how long, in years to decades, a treatment will continue to lower potential fire behavior and fire effects.
35
Fuels Treatment Effectiveness Over Time (3 of 3)Over Time (3 of 3)
Example of vegetation growth over time
Post‐treatment
+10 years10 years
+ 20 years
36
+ 20 years
Prescribed Burn Planning (1 of 3)g
Objective: Provide the information needed to plan, document, d d d ib d fiand conduct a proposed, prescribed fire.
Inputs Vegetation/Fuels Data Types Processes Outputs
Fuels; range of User entered single Fire Behavior Fire Effects QC
Graphs and data of fire behavior and fire effectsg
weather conditions
gstand level data Fire Behavior Fire Effects QC and fire effects
over a range of conditions
37
Prescribed Burn Planning (2 of 3)g
Objective: Provide the information needed to plan, document, d d d ib d fiand conduct a proposed, prescribed fire.
38
Prescribed Burn Planning (3 of 3)g
39
Risk Assessment
Objective: Provide a probabilistic risk assessment for fuels treatment planning.
Vegetation/Inputs Vegetation/Fuels Data Types Processes Outputs
C rrentTree-list polygon data Fire Beha ior MTT
Maps and data for fire beha iorCurrent,
complete fuels; topography
data
LANDFIRE data
User supplied data
Fire Behavior MTT Burn Probability Mode QC
for fire behavior, burn probability, and values at risk
Fire risk = (burn probability) × (fire hazard index) × (value at risk)( p y) ( ) ( )
40