The Inter-Regional Migration in China - China Data...
Transcript of The Inter-Regional Migration in China - China Data...
The InterThe Inter--Regional Migration Regional Migration in Chinain China
ShumingShuming BaoBaoChina Data CenterChina Data Center
the University of Michiganthe University of Michigan
April 14, 2008East-West Center
QuestionsQuestions
Who are moving?Why moving?Where from and where going?What impacts?What driving factors?What is past, current and future trends?What data sources?
BackgroundBackgroundChanges in spatial distribution of population:
1949-1982, primarily dominated by high natural population growth and controlled by the government1982-2000, featured by the increasing migration with a declining natural population growth
Shock effect:Rapid regional development in coast area under marketing economy since 1980 => unbalance labor marketDeregulated household registration since 1990 => greatly enhanced labor mobility
Rapid Urbanization: Remarkable growth in urban cities and rural towns in China from 1980’s-2000’s. There were about 41,636 townships (6,152 Jiedao, 19,522 Towns and 21,499 Xiangs) in 2005, with a urban town population of 562 million and a Xiang and rural township population of 745 million.
Who They Are?Who They Are?
Rural labor released from agricultural workPeople looking for a job change or relocationStudentsPeople moving to new housesFamily unionRetired people for new permanent places
Migration by Age Groups (Male/Female)Data Sourc: China 2000 Population Census
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+
Who They Are: Educational AttainmentWho They Are: Educational Attainment
The Education of Intra and Inter-Province Migration(1995-2000) in %
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
UnderElementary
Middle School High School ProfessionalSchool
AssociateCollege
College Graduate
Intra-province Inter-province
The Education of Inter and Inter-Province Migration(1995-2000)
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
UnderElementary
Middle School High School ProfessionalSchool
AssociateCollege
College Graduate
Intra-province
Inter-province
•The migration with middle school and under count more than 60%
•The majority of inter-province migration have a lower education than intra-province migration
Who They Are: OccupationWho They Are: Occupation
Migration by Occupation in 2000
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
Administrator/M
anager
Professional/T
echnica
lCleric
al & Related
Sales & Serv
iceAgricu
lture
& Related
Productio
n & Rela
ted
Other
Intra-Province
Inter-Province
Migraion by Occupation in 2000 (%)
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
Admini
strato
r/Man
ager
Profes
siona
l/Tech
nical
Clerical &
Related
Sales &
Service
Agricu
lture
& Related
Produc
tion &
Related
Other
Intra-ProvinceInter-Province
•The migration in production and agriculture count about 56%
•More than 60% of inter-province migration are in production industry
Why They Move?Why They Move?
Looking for new jobs Job transfer of relocationStudy or trainingNew housesMove with family
Motivation of Migration (Male/Female)Data Source: 2000 China Populat ion Census
0.005.00
10.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.00
Working and
Business
Job T
ransfe
rJo
b Relo
catio
nLe
arn an
d Trainin
gChan
ge Hou
se M
arriage
Family
Depend
ants
Live w
ith re
lative
s or fr
iends
Other
Where to Go?Where to Go?Destination by City, Town and Rural
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1982-87 1985-90 1990-95 1995-2000
CityTownRural
The cities and towns attracted more than 80% of migration.
Where to Go: Centers of AttractionsWhere to Go: Centers of Attractions
Net Migration to Ppulation by Province(%)
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
Nation
alBeij
ingTian
jinSha
ngha
iHeb
eiSha
ndon
gJia
ngsu
Zhejia
ngFuji
anGua
ngdo
ngHain
anLia
oning Jilin
Heilon
gjian
gSha
nxi
Henai
Anhui
Jiang
xiHub
eiHun
an
Inner
Mongo
liaSha
anxi
Gansu
Ningxia
Xinjian
gCho
ngqin
gSich
uan
Guizho
uGua
ngxi
Yunna
nQing
hai
Tibet
1. Beijing2. Shanghai
3. Guangdong
4. Xinjiang
Data Source: China 2000 Population Census
KMPPPPP
MI
ji
ijititi
ijij
∑−=
,
)]/()[/(Robert Bachi’s Preference Index:
Data Source: China 2000 Population Census
Spatial Distributions of IntraSpatial Distributions of Intra--Province MigrationProvince Migration
The Driving Factors for Migration: The Driving Factors for Migration: An Extended ModelAn Extended Model
Dependent variable = Inter-provincial migration rate(the migration from province i to province j divided by total migration from province i)
Independent variablesDistance between province i and jRatio of destination to origin incomeStock of previous migrants in destination Education level in originEducation level in destinationRatio of urban population shareRatio of destination to origin mean temperatureRatio of destination to origin per capita real FDIRatio of destination to origin per capita real fixed asset investmentRatio of destination to origin manufacturing shareRatio of destination to origin share of population that is minority The impact of East and West development
790790765Sample Size
0.7210.6910.4562Adjusted R-squared
7.1211***3.2485***5.6684***Constant
0.3547***0.2096***0.7684***Western China Destination
0.9654***0.7757***0.0958***Eastern China Destination
0.0916***0.00460.0277*Destination FDI/Origin FDI
-0.7982***-1.4566***-0.2445***Destination Fixed Asset Investment/Origin Fixed Asset Investment
0.0138-0.0110-0.0822***Dest. Minority Share/Origin Minority Share
-0.1360.6053***-0.6057***Dest. Manufacturing Share/Origin Manufacturing Share
0.3154***0.4473***-0.2177**Dest. Temperature/Origin Temperature
1.0202***0.0850-0.1582Dest. Urban Share/Origin Urban Share
-0.0421***-0.2224***-0.472***Unemployment rate in dest.
0.7976***-0.04140.0275Unemployment rate in origin
-0.07493.5194***2.4462***Education level in dest.
0.0443-1.39***-0.7721***Education level in origin
0.10330.9899***0.3731*Dest. Income/Origin Income
-0.3678***-0.4049***-1.2211***Distance
0.5843***0.5033***Past migration flows
00-0595-0085-90Variables
The Estimates from the Extended ModelsThe Estimates from the Extended Models
Some Findings on the Major Influences on Inter-regional Migration
Past migration flowsDistanceUnemployment rate in origin Spatial differences in urbanizationSpatial differences in climateSpatial differences in construction spending and FDIWhere destination is located (East and West)
What Impacts on Labor, Economy and Social What Impacts on Labor, Economy and Social System StructureSystem Structure
Impact on population and labor force structureThe increasing dependency ratio in rural areas and the Western China regions
Impact on urban-rural structureThe increasing urban population densityRedistribution of urban-rural populationSegregation
Impact on social system structure and public policiesHousehold registrationEducationMedical care systemRetirement systemEmployment/Unemployment system
The Trends of Migration in China The Trends of Migration in China (1980(1980--2005)2005)
The Inter-province Migration (82-05)
3,0443,384 3,323 3,497
4,867
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
82-87 85-90 90-95 95-00 00-05
•There are about 189 million people moved in recent years, the intra-province migration counts about 66% while the inter-province migration counts 34%.
•The inter-province migration keep increasing since 1980s
Changes in UrbanChanges in Urban--Rural MigrationRural Migrationthe migration flow between cities, towns and rural region
City
RuralTown
35.1% 29.89%
39.3%39.3%
89.6%
32.8%
3.8% 6.6%
32.1%
– Increasing: % of migration out from cities from 17.9% in 82-87, 18.6% in 85-90, 30.9% in 90-95, and 31.4% in 95-00
– Declining: % of migration out from rural areas from 68% in 82-87 to 58.7% in 95-00
Changes in InterChanges in Inter--province Migration province Migration (85-90, 90-95, 95-00, 00-05)
• Increasing inter-province migration flows from 85 to 2005• Stronger tendency of local concentration• Big loser of migration: the central region
The Inter-Province Migration from 85-05 (%)
32.08 31.529.38
36.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
85-90 89-95 95-00 00-05
Challenges and OpportunitiesChallenges and OpportunitiesThere are still a large pool of rural labor force to be relocated (By the year of 2005, the rural population is about 800 million,accounting about 57% of national population. It is estimated that about 200 million rural labor force will be looking for jobs within next several years)Restructuring in developed regions and relocated jobsThe increasing dependency ratio in rural and western regionsDiscrimination toward the migration without local household registration (education, job opportunities, medical and retirement benefits)Preservation of culture diversityPressure on environment and increasing demand for resources
Data Sources for Migration StudiesData Sources for Migration Studies
- Government Statistics
- Survey Data (rural, urban, enterprise, market)
- Census Data (population, basic units, agriculture)
- GIS Data (administrative boundaries, roads, rivers, land, elevation,….)
- Remote Sensing Data
China Census Data with GIS MapsChina Census Data with GIS Maps- The 2000 China Township Population Census Data with GIS Maps
- The 2000 China County Population Census Data with GIS maps
- The 2000 China Province Population Census Data with GIS Maps
- The China Historical Population Census Data with GIS Maps (1953, 1964, 1982, 1990, 2000)
- China 2000 Population Data with One sq km GIS Maps- China 2004 Economic Census Data with ZIP Maps
What is Available in the Census DataWhat is Available in the Census Data
2000 Population Census:
General InformationNationalitiesAge StructureHousehold StructureEducationFertility DeathsMarriage MigrationHousing StatusIndustries and Occupations
Geographical Levels:
Country |
Province |
Prefecture |
County |
Township |
1 sq km Grid
2004 Economic Census:
EmploymentRevenueIndustriesProductsOwnerships
> 2,000 demographic variables in 2000 population Census data> more than 5 millions units in 2004 economic Census data
2000 Population Census of China2000 Population Census of China
Date and Time: 0:00AM of November 1, 2000 Residents: All permanent residents who have Chinese citizenships and have permanent living places in Mainland China. 2000 Census forms: (1) Short Form(2) Long Form(3) Death Form (dead between 11/1/1999 and 10/31/2000)(4) Temporary Resident Form (live in the place and left
the original pace with household registration for less than 6 months)
Migration Data in 2000 CensusMigration Data in 2000 CensusThose who have a different counties or districts of birth (within or outside of the current province) than the current counties or districts Those who have moved from other townships to the current place within last 5 years (95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 00)Those who have moved from other places to current place for more than five yearsThose who don’t have the local household registration but have been living in this townships for more than 6 monthsThose residents who have local household registration but have left for other places for more than 6 monthsThose who have resided in this township for less than 6 months but have been away from the place of their permanent household registration for more than 6 months. Those who live in this township during the population census while the places of their household registration have not yet settled. Those who used to live in this township but are working or studying abroad during the Census and have no permanent household registration for the time being. Where the residents were from: Jiedao, town or townships of the same or other provincesMigration by age sex, and reasons for moving from other places to the current place The Intra or Inter-province Migration by education (No Schooling, Eliminate Illiteracy, Primary School, Junior Middle School, Senior Middle School, Specialized secondary school, Junior College, University, Graduate Student)The Intra or Inter-province Migration by occupationThe intra or inter-province female migration with birth orders of 1st, 2nd and 3+ between November 1st of 1999 11.l and October 31 of 2000.
2000 Census Data Tables2000 Census Data TablesThe 2000 Census data table consists of two parts: The first part (A tables) contains data
from all households that reflects the basic situation of population. The second part (L tables) contains data from the long forms which present various detailed compositions of the population. Short Form : basic information
General InformationNationalitiesAgeEducationHouseholdsDeathsMigrationHousing
Long Form (9.5%, households selected by a random sampling program): extended information, including all short form items plus other items
General InformationNationalitiesEducationIndustries and OccupationsMarriage Fertility MigrationHousing
Some Notes on 2000 CensusSome Notes on 2000 CensusData in the publication do not include population not enumerated in the Census.
Data in the publication do not include the 2.5 million servicemen of the People's Liberation Army.
Total population as shown in this publication is 1,242.61 million, or 23.22 million less than the population figure of 1,265.83 million (including 2.5 million servicemen) released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
The post-Census sample survey indicates an undercount of 1.81% in the 2000 Census.
The sampling ratio for various compositions of the population may not be the same as household is used as the ultimate sampling unit.
Urban/Rural ResidenceUrban/Rural Residence
100 Urban 城镇
110 City 城市
111 Urban with Districts (>1500 persons/sq km) 设区市的市区
112 Urban without Districts 不设区市的市区
120 Town 镇
121 The capital town of county 县及县以上人民政府所在建制镇的镇区
122 Other towns 其他建制镇的镇区
200 Rural 乡村
210 Rural Townships 集镇
220 Villages 农村
Others (mines, tourist areas, development zones, etc.)
Urban if more than 3000 population
Rural if less than 3000 population
Historical Population Census Data with MapsHistorical Population Census Data with Maps(1953,1962,1982,1990,2000)
Census 1953
Census 1982
Census 2000
Census 1962
Census 1990
China Population Grid Maps (one kmChina Population Grid Maps (one km22))
Elevation
Aged Population(64+)
Migration (%)
Sex Ratio (M/F)Labor Force (16-64)
Population Density
China Data OnlineChina Data Online
CHINA STATISTICS CHINA STATISTICS
•Monthly Statistics
•National Statistics
•Provincial Statistics
•City Statistics
•County Statistics
•Industrial Data
•Statistics on Map
•Statistical Yearbooks
CENSUS DATA CENSUS DATA
• Economic Census Data
• Industrial Census Data
• Population Census (82,90,00,05)
ReferencesReferencesBao, Shuming, Örn B. Bodvarsson, Jack W. Hou, and Yaohui Zhao, 2008. The Deregulation of People Flows in China: Did the Structure of Migration Change? Presented at the CES 2008 Annual Meeting.Shi, Anqing, Shuming Bao, 2007. Migration, Education and Rural Development: Evidence from China 2000 Population Census Data. In Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies. 2007, Vol. 5 (2): 163 – 177.Bao, Shuming, Shuanglin Lin, Changwen Zhao (Eds), 2006. China’s Economy After WTO Accession, Ashegate.Zhao, Changwen, Wing Thye Woo, Shuming Bao (Eds.), 2006. Sustainable Development and Global Challenges: Towards a New Paradigm for Developing Western China. Sichuan Publishing Co. Wu, Haiying, Qinling Duan, Shuming Bao (Eds.). 2006. The Sustainable Development of Regional Economy in the West China. China Economic Press. Bao, Shuming, Anqing Shi, and Jack W. Hou. 2006. Migration and Regional Development in China. In Shuming Bao, Shuanglin Lin, Changwen Zhao (Eds.), Chinese Economy after WTO Accession. Ashegate. Bao, Shuming, Anqing Shi and Jack W. Hou. 2005. An Analysis of the Spatial Changing Patterns of Migration in China. In China Population Science, 2005 (5).Bao, Shuming and Wing Thye Woo. 2004. Migration Scenarios and Western China Development: Some Evidence from 2000 Population Census Data. In Ding Lu and William A W Neilson (Eds.), China’s West Region Development: Domestic Strategies and Global Implications, World Scientific Publishing Co.Démurger, Sylvie, Jeffrey D. Sachs, Wing Thye Woo, Shuming Bao, and Gene Chang. 2004. Explaining Unequal Distribution of Economic Growth among China Provinces: Geography or Policy? In: Aimin Chen, Gordon G. Liu, and Kevin H. Zhang (Eds.), Urbanization and Social Welfare in China, Ashgate..Démurger, Sylvie, Jeffrey D. Sachs, Wing Thye Woo, Shuming Bao, Gene Chang and Andrew Mellinger, 2002. Geography, Economic Policy and Regional Development in China. In: Asian Economic Papers, Vol. 1 (1).Démurger, Sylvie, Jeffrey D. Sachs, Wing Thye Woo, Shuming Bao, and Gene Chang, 2002. The Relative Contributions of Location and Preferential Policies in China’s Regional Development: Being in the Right Place and Having the Right Incentives. In: China Economic Review, Vol. 13: 444-465.Bao, Shuming, Gene Chang, Jeffrey D. Sachs, and Wing Thye Woo. 2002. Geographic Factors and China’s Regional Development Under Market Reforms, 1978–98. In: China Economic Review, Vol. 13:89-111.