The influence of climate change on forest ungulates: the paradox of "restoring" novel ecosystems

Thomas P. Rooney

tinyurl.com/ProfRooney

“The system is a lot more complicated than anybody thought.”

-Dr. Robert Rockwell, reflecting 45 years of research in the Arctic tundra that is undergoing accelerating environmental change

Take Home Message

1. The influence of climate change…2. …on forest ungulates…3. …the paradox of "restoring" novel ecosystems

Outline

Influence of climate change…

Common view: Climate change happens in the future

Better: Climate change is underway now

Forest fires in Canada have increased with temp. anomaly

Gillett et al. 2004

Influence of climate change…

Common view: Climate change will gradually make things warmer

Better: Climate change will be experienced as discrete events that interact with warming to impact management actions and options

Forest storm damage in Sweden

Schlyter et al. 2006

Influence of climate change…

Common view: Effects of climate change are predictable

Better: Many effects will not be predictable. Climate interacts with complex biological and social systems, producing surprises.

Climate interacts with biological and social systems

…on forest ungulates…

Forests and ungulates form a coupled ecological system that operates over multiple scales in space and time.

Ungulates can facilitate or inhibit meeting forest management objectives.

…on forest ungulates…Ungulate herbivory is a key driver of forest structure, composition and dynamics.

Côté et al. 2014

Beschta et al. (2013)

On forest ungulatesnegative effects of

climate change + ungulates

…on forest ungulates…ungulates, climate change and zoonosesHoberg et al. (2008) identify 11 classes of parasites or vectors significant for livestock and wild ungulates in North America that will influenced by climate change.

Hoberg et al. 2008

Altered disease transmission dynamicsAltered geographic ranges of parasitesAltered parasite life cycles and intermediate hosts

…on forest ungulates…Change in the diversity and abundance of forest ungulates will shape forest development

…the paradox of "restoring" novel ecosystems

Williams and Jackson (2007)

Novel (no present analog) ecosystems in areas with novel climate

…the paradox of "restoring" novel ecosystems

Williams and Jackson (2007)

Location of novel ecosystems under A2 warming scenario

Hobbs et al. 2009

…the paradox of "restoring" novel ecosystems

Adaptive strategies

1.Increase resiliency – manage for accommodating climate change2. Increase resistance – manage for resisting impacts

of climate change3. Facilitate transitions – manage for new conditions4. Realignment – create novel forest types

Stephens et al. 2010

…the paradox of "restoring" novel ecosystems

“The system is a lot more complicated than anybody thought.”

-Dr. Robert Rockwell, reflecting 45 years of research in the Arctic tundra that is undergoing accelerating environmental change

Take Home Message