The inexorable rise of ‘Total Mobility’ · 1 The inexorable rise of ‘Total Mobility’ Prof...

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The inexorable rise of ‘Total Mobility’

Prof Jim Norton FREng NICC Open Forum 2014

Items to be covered •  Some background on the Spectrum Policy

Forum. •  How far have we come in mobility? •  A prediction from 12 years ago… •  Moves to total mobility? •  A prediction for ten years hence… •  A ‘Fifth Generation’ vision. •  Closing thoughts…

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Design Criteria for Spectrum Policy Forum n  Independent industry voice, established at the request of DCMS. n  Led by an independent, unremunerated, chair, but facilitated by techUK. n  Inclusive - both techUK and non techUK companies and other organisations

taking part – none excluded. n  Appropriate funding mechanism to include financial contributions to support

the work of the Forum: l  Financial contributions from Steering Board members on a voluntary basis. l  Financial contributions from the government on a voluntary basis. l  Budget achieved for 2014-15 ~ £250K.

n  Funding to support: l  Clear deliverables to include commissioned reports / studies and events. l  A UK economic contribution language (Jobs & GDP) readily understood by Ministers. l  Contribute to the day to day running of the forum

n  Transparent - all outputs available publicly and free of charge n  Two-way communication with the wider Forum membership enabled by

technology n  Clear structure, accountability and governance

Key objectives of the Spectrum Policy Forum n  Industry sounding board to Government and Ofcom on future spectrum

management and regulatory policy to help maximise the benefits of spectrum for the UK.

n  Focus on medium to long term policy matters. •  NOT the routine negotiations between Ofcom and individual organisations on near-term

issues related to spectrum assignment, pricing or conditions of use.

n  Working in ‘Clusters’: •  One – Spectrum Applications and Demand. Chair Prof Simon Saunders. •  Two – Spectrum access mechanisms and use. Chair Peter Curnow-Ford. •  Three – Economic analysis. Chair Tony Lavender.

n  Action areas to include: •  Changing the political weather. •  Public sector spectrum management and improving access to it. •  Creating a medium/long-term vision. - particularly on ‘flagship’ spectrum

issues such as 5G and UHF spectrum. •  Exploring future spectrum access mechanisms.

•  Maximising UK international influence.

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Forum now on a formal footing… Steering Board formed: •  So far, one representative from each of 11 large organisations (Arqiva, BBC,

BT, Huawei, ITV, Motorola Solutions, Qinetiq, Qualcomm, Telefonica UK, Three and Vodafone) covering a full span of spectrum usage, as voluntary sponsoring members. More manufacturer participation in particular sought.

• One representative from each 3 small and medium enterprises (Avanti, MLL, and Real Wireless), again drawn from a range of sectors, as voluntary sponsoring members.

• One senior representative from Ofcom. • One senior representative from the Department of Culture Media & Sport

(DCMS), representing Govt. •  The Chair of the Spectrum Policy Forum. •  The Chairs of the three “Clusters” of the Spectrum Policy Forum.

Staff from techUK in attendance in order to facilitate the meeting and to act as the secretariat.

The UK Spectrum Policy Forum

UK Social and

Economic Value

Cluster 1: Applications and Sector

needs

Cluster 2: Spectrum

release and access

mechanisms

Cluster 3: Social Value of Spectrum

Government and Ofcom: •  Poli3cal, Economic, Legal

and Social Context •  Goals, policy and regula3on

•  Sector needs •  Current spectrum

usage •  Future evolu3on

•  Spectrum alloca3on •  Spectrum assignment

modes •  Technology evolu3on

•  How to assign value to uses of spectrum of benefit to society?

Steering Board

With acknowledgement to Real Wireless Ltd

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Cluster 3 –Value of spectrum n  The DCMS Spectrum Strategy “Seeks to elicit the best economic and

social value for the UK from spectrum” l  Value to users of spectrum

l  Broader value to society (harder to capture) n  Having a consistent way of dealing with value will be an essential part of

the decision making process for efficient allocation/assignment and use.

n  Government’s goal is to apply the same principles for valuing spectrum use across all sectors – all use (private sector and public sector ) of spectrum must be considered.

n  A panel of experts has been set up under DCMS leadership to advise on options for assessing the full value of spectrum to the UK – conclusions to be published by July 2015.

n  Spectrum Policy Forum Cluster Three Chair is a member of the DCMS panel.



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How far have we come…. 1947 – First PMR

1965 – London Carphone 1976 – System 3

Sources: Various including RA Archive & http://cellnet.illtyd.co.uk/home

1985 TACS GSM 1992 2007 – iPhone 1

2014 – iPhone6+

The cost-performance of electronics doubles every 18-24 months (Moore’s Law)

1 10

100 1,000

10,000 100,000

1,000,000 10,000,000

100,000,000 1,000,000,000

10,000,000,000 100,000,000,000

1,000,000,000,000

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Source: Gordon E. Moore. Cramming more components onto integrated circuits. Electronics Magazine 38(8), 19/4/1965, available at ftp:// download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Articles-Press_Releases/ Gordon_Moore_1965_Article.pdf and Analysys

38 Doublings

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Cooper’s law for wireless

1

100

10,000

1,000,000

100,000,000

10,000,000,000

1,000,000,000,000

100,000,000,000,000

1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Cooper’s Law, (after ArrayComm Chairman, Martin Cooper), states that the number of conversations (voice and data) conducted over a given area, in all of the useful radio spectrum, has doubled every two and a half years for the last 107 years, ever since Marconi discovered radio in 1895. Latest is WiGig Alliance developing 9Gbit/sec WiFi…

45 Doublings

Source: ArrayComm



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A prediction from 14 years ago…

Cambridge 3G

“By 2010, I expect us all to be carrying small devices, which will have displaced laptop and desktop computers, which will make extensive use of network-based storage and application service provision. I expect the communications and information systems world to look very different – and I do expect 3G operators to be making money…”



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Signposts along the way… l  Anything that customers do tethered to an infrastructure

(whether communications or power) they have grown to expect to be able to do with complete mobility…

l  Already the final communications link for most uses is wireless. In the home/office, DECT for old style dial up telephony. For IP data in all its forms - Wifi, Bluetooth, Zigbee,… Wireless energy transmission will only reinforce this trend.

l  Outside the home cellular communications (2/3/4G) and WiFi hot spots.

l  Coming soon, all the wireless based aspects of the Internet of Things…

l  The really pertinent question is really how long is the radio link into the fixed network backhaul?

The 5GPPP Roadmap in Horizon 2020…

“Structural convergence is more complex to implement, as it involves sharing the infrastructures and equipment of fixed and mobile networks. It is expected to enable new mobile front-haul and backhaul architectures in complete synergy with fixed access networks. These architectures will pave the way to the Cloud Radio Access Network (Cloud RAN) concept and could also eventually enable the sharing of fibre access infrastructures or even shared fixed and mobile equipment”.

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Sevices ten years hence…?

n  The complexities of all the different technologies to be hidden from them in order to receive the services they desire by whatever delivery mechanisms offer the most appropriate cost/quality of service combination at any given point in time.

n  The same terminal devices will be used in the home, the office and outdoors.

n  These same devices will drive (wirelessly!) large fixed displays and sound systems to replace the current television and home cinema devices.

n  Access to an extensive package of network based applications and storage in secure “Clouds”.

The terms “fixed” and “mobile” will become only of academic interest. The final connection will always be wireless. The end customer will expect:

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Suppliers ten years hence…?

n  Superlative customer service and resolving (very fast!) on the customer’s behalf any faults or failings in the underlying technology and service delivery. Taking full responsibility - in effect a “Digital Butler” service.

n  Seamless roaming wherever there is a network capability from any provider.

n  At least a minimum mandatory level of security protection with a range of enhancements to suit different desires for levels of privacy. Perhaps even some levels of vendor product liability here…

n  Highly flexible billing to secure options ranging from always least cost to always-highest quality of service.

Perhaps only one supplier will “own” and have a relationship with any given customer. Competitive differentiation will be based on offering:



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The purpose of the 5G work under Spectrum Policy Forum Cluster One

To develop a UK perspective on the vision for 5G being developed in ITU by the group WP5D

There were two perspectives:

Approach 1

Predicting the future evolution of current and emerging applications –  Merged into four groups of applications

Approach 2

Envisaging the types of new capabilities that might be needed for 2020 and beyond. •  The results were submitted as 5D/681 •  5G is described in ITU as “IMT for 2020 and beyond” •  Date of 2020 is arbitrary (determined by ITU framework)

Fifth Generation Vision – Part 1

1.  Sufficient bit rate - the bit rate that is sufficient to give the user the perception that the network has unconstrained capacity (i.e. the user does not perceive significant impairment due to the network). For example, human users should not need to modify their behaviour on account of their experience of network performance.

2.  Device Density - the number of devices per square km supporting the application. When served by indoor cells, this is measured per square km per floor.

3.  Capacity Density - the total throughput required by users per square km. When served by indoor cells, this is again measured per square km per floor, because the utilisation of spectrum on different floors is largely independent.

Drawing on the excellent work of Simon Pike’s Cluster 1 Working Group, submitted via Ofcom as a UK input to ITU-R Working Party 5D, The vision is based around eight key parameters :

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Fifth Generation Vision – Part 2

4.  Mobility - in terms of speed in km/h. 5.  Coverage reliability - the reliability of the service within the

intended coverage area in any location in which it might be expected to be used (for example, an underground metro line would be expected to be a separate coverage area).

6.  Terminal battery life - the battery life of a device, with typical data throughput and usage pattern for both transmit and receive.

7.  Spectrum efficiency.

8.  Latency.

Drawing on the excellent work of Simon Pike’s Cluster 1 Working Group, submitted via Ofcom as a UK input to ITU-R Working Party 5D, The vision is based around eight key parameters :

Energy efficiency, cost and resilience are also addressed as more general capabilities…

Spectrum efficiency

Terminal battery life

Mobility (km/hr) Coverage Reliability

Connection density (x/km2)

‘Sufficient bit rate’ (bit/s)

Latency (ms)

Capacity density (bit/s/km2)

103

107

109

105

High Extremely high

Very high 4

40

400

Hot spot

Extremely high

Very high

High

1 100 10

103

105

107

Low

Extremely high

Includes:

Indoor cells

Public safety

Moving platforms

Voice

Web page element

Data includes Internet of Things (except sensors)

Connection density of indoor cells is x/km2/floor

Data and voice (approach 1)

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Spectrum efficiency





Latency (ms)


103

107

109

105

High Extremely high

Very high 4

40

400

Hot spot

Extremely high

Very high

High

1 100 10

103

105

107

Low

Extremely high

Assumes UHD (ultra high definition)

High definition

Standard definition

Multimedia:

Sound and/or video content that is intended for consumption in real time when delivered.

This excludes highly interactive multimedia such as telepresence.

Multimedia (approach 1)

Spectrum efficiency





Latency (ms)


103

107

109

105

High Extremely high

Very high 4

40

400

Hot spot

Extremely high

Very high

High

1 100 10

103

105

107

Low

Extremely high

Massive numbers of low cost sensors and actuators

Note: Other aspects of Internet of Things are included within Data capabilities

Internet of Things - sensor and actuator applications (approach 1)

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Includes:

Utility networks

Driverless cars

Gaming

Spectrum efficiency





Latency (ms)


103

107

109

105

High Extremely high

Very high 4

40

400

Hot spot

Extremely high

Very high

High

1 100 10

103

105

107

Low

Extremely high

Mission critical and low latency applications (approach 1)

Spectrum efficiency





Latency (ms)


103

107

109

105

High Extremely high

Very high 4

40

400

Hot spot

Extremely high

Very high

High

1 100 10

103

105

107

Low

Extremely high

May be needed for some applications

Possibly at very high frequencies

New capabilities envisaged for 2020 and beyond (approach 2)

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Network-Spectrum landscape map of emerging proposals for 5G

SUPER-FAST “MOBILE” - high-density of new advanced small cell clusters covering urban areas delivering ~1.0 Gb/s (peak)

SUPER-EFFICIENT re-architecture of existing 3G/4G networks (with spectrum

800 MHz to 2.1 GHz) using DAN philosophy to deliver always sufficient Q of S for diverse traffic types from IoT to Video. IT REPURPOSES EXSTING SPECTRUM.

10 Gb/s peak urban nomadic

5G wireless connectivity

with spectrum

20-60 GHz

Cellular IoT demanding ultra

Low Power devices network with spectrum

< 1 GHz

IP Multicasting for TV

broadcasting with spectrum < 1

GHz

7 GB/s peak 802.11ad Wi-Fi

with spectrum at 60 GHz

1.3 GB/s peak 802.11ac Wi-Fi with spectrum at

5 GHz

0.6 GB/s peak 802.11n Wi-Fi

with spectrum at

2.4 GHz

MO

BIL

E N

OM

AD

IC

National (Rural) 4G at 800 MHz + GSM at 900 & 1800 MHz + (??) at 700 MHz

Nat

iona

l U

rban

With Spectrum : <4GHz for lower coverage cost

>2GHz for larger channel width

WIRELESS-FIBRE

Surrey University 5G IC

Advanced access techniques With grateful thanks to Stephen Temple & David Hendon….

Work to be carried out under the aegis of Forum Cluster Two includes an analysis of the potential uses of Dynamic Spectrum Access. In such an approach operators might bid for national exclusive allocations as at present but where, after an agreed period of time, spectrum was not being used by a particular operator in a particular geographic area this might be made available dynamically to other operators in proportion to their national allocations should they wish to use it, thus allowing them to increase the available bit rates. The original operator could of course regain access to that spectrum should they wish at a later point to extend their service….

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Closing thoughts – ever optimistic…

•  The Internet, Cloud Computing and Data Analytics, all driving the ‘Information Age’, are hugely significant, in my opinion on a par with the Industrial Revolution.

•  Change at exponential rates is highly disconcerting and disruptive, human beings still tend to think and extrapolate in linear terms.

•  We are nowhere near the end of the revolution in the impact of digital systems either in terms of services or technologies.

•  The next ten years will be every bit as exciting as the last…

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But always remember that new technology can sometimes have

unexpected impacts….

Oh dear…!

The author gratefully acknowledges the work of the UK Spectrum Policy Forum Clusters and in

particular the exceptional work of the “5G Vision”

working group and the 5G Innovation centre at Surrey University.

Slides can be downloaded from:

www.profjimnorton.com/niccjn1.pdf

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