Ian Armitage Chief Executive Mercury Private Equity Private Equity.
The Industrial Sector Through the Eyes of a Private Equity ... · & Yahoo founded. Private equity...
Transcript of The Industrial Sector Through the Eyes of a Private Equity ... · & Yahoo founded. Private equity...
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The Industrial Sector Through the Eyes of a Private Equity Investor
September 21, 2006
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The importance of private equity
~70% of you work for companies that have been touched by private equity.
Not Touched byPrivate Equity
30.0%
Touched by Private Equity70.0%
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Agenda
• How and why does private equity impact you?– Why is private equity important?– How does private equity work?
• How important is the industrial sector to private equity?
• What does private equity look for in industrial companies?
• What does a private equity firm look like?
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Historical Perspective on Private EquityThe private equity industry has grown dramatically over the last 30 years and now has a major impact on all sectors of the economy.
Sources: Meketa Investment Group; Buyouts Magazine
1971 1978 1983 1984 1986 1987 1989 1994 1996 1997 2000 2004 2006
NASDAQ formed
Kohlberg Kravis,
Roberts & Co. (KKR) Founded
AT&T broken up by U.S.
regulators
First private equity
transaction over $1bn (Wometco
Enterprises)
Driven by Michael Milken
(Drexel Burnham Lambert), leveraged
buyouts first account for the
largest percentage of
high yield bond issuance
Black Monday
(S&P loses over
20% in one day)
“Barbarians at the
Gate;” KKR acquires
RJR Nabisco – largest
LBO to date
Netscape & Yahoo founded
Private equity funds raise over $50bn in a single year for the first
time
Asian financial
crisis
Private equity funds raise over $200bn;
stock market bubble bursts
Google IPO;
Carlyle Group raises $10bn
Numerous record-size funds raised (e.g. Blackstone Group ($15.6B)
Texas Pacific Group ($14.3B)
Permira Advisers ($14.1B))
$32bn deal for HCA
announced; largest private
equity deal in history
“Thirty years ago, the private equity industry was not really an industry at all. Today, private equity is mainstream, sophisticated and huge. It accounted for about $200bn worth of deals in 2005, and the vast majority of that sum was spent on buy-outs of established companies”
-The Financial Times
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Private Equity in the Press
“Increasing emphasis lies on improvements in the fundamental performance [through] motivation of employees and managers of the acquired business [and] direct involvement of the acquiring buy-out group in the transaction. Importantly, some of these improvements persist even after the buy-out group re-sells the business.”
-The Financial Times
“Private-equity firms now possess more than $2 trillion in buying power. This year they have bought some of the world’s best-known brands, worth more than $347 billion, twice last year’s pace and roughly equal to the gross domestic product of Belgium. Private-equity firms spent $12.3 billion for Univision last month; $22 billion for Kinder Morgan in May; as much as $14 billion for General Motors’ finance unit, G.M.A.C., in April; and $17.4 billion for Albertsons, the grocery chain, in January.”
-The New York Times
“Private money is also playing a growing role in mergers and acquisitions, an area long dominated by companies. So far this year, buyout funds have been involved in 24% of mergers and acquisitions by value, according to Thomson Financial, up from the 14% in 1988, the peak of the previous buyout boom.”
-Wall Street Journal
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Size of the Private Equity Market Relative to GDP
199019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
050.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0%
Private Equity Investmentas a % of U.S. GDP
Despite coming down from their peaks, the rates of private equity investment as a percentage of GDP and as a percentage of total M&A activity are still well above historical averages.
Source: Meketa Investment Group
199019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
050.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0%
Private Equity Investmentas a % of U.S. M&A Market
7
LBO volume and returns have surged in recent years
Deal volume is up sharply
Source: Buyouts Newsletter, Thomson Venture Economics; Bain & Company
0
50
100
150
$200B
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Annu
aliz
edQ
1
LBO transactions byUS-based firms
8
New cycle of fund raising: Leads to a capital overhang
Note: Capital raised includes foreign funds raised by US-based LBO firmsSource: Buyouts Newsletter, Bain LBO fund database, S&P LCD
0
50
100
150
$200B
0
50
100
150
$200B
92
5
93
6
94
12
95
18
96
23
97
35
98
55
99
35
00
63
01
35
02
17
03
24
04
42
05
174
Capital raised vs.deal volume (equity portion)
Equityinvested
Creates a capital overhang of more
than $200B implying a lot of capital left to be
invested
9
Agenda
• How and why does private equity impact you?– Why is private equity important?– How does private equity work?
• How important is the industrial sector to private equity?
• What does private equity look for in industrial companies?
• What does a private equity firm look like?
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What is private equity?It’s not as glamorous as “Pretty Woman”
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What is private equity?It’s not as ruthless as “Wall Street”
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What is private equity?And it’s a bit more complicated than…
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What is private equity?
Private Equity investing is essentially the practice of…
1) raising money to invest
2) investing in companies with strong teams and growth opportunities
3) helping to build and grow companies over time, and
4) eventually, realizing a happy return for all of the shareholders
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Purpose of Financing
Increasing leverage improves returns
Provide a cushion in the instance that things go wrong
Capital structure must fit company's needs
– Working capital– Capex– Seasonality– Add-on acquisitions
Financing must be "doable" in current market
– Interest rate pricing– Bond market– Amortization schedule
Maximize Returns While Minimizing Risk
Optimize Financing Given Market Conditions and Company Situation
Private equity firms use the equity that they have raised from limited partners along with debt (collateralized by the companies they purchase) to buy portfolio companies.
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100 equity
147 equity
Year 1 Year 4
100
147
0
50
100
150
Ente
rpris
e Va
lue
10 equity
90 debt
57 equity
90 debt
Year 1 Year 4
100
147
0
50
100
150
Ente
rpris
e Va
lue
13.7% IRR1.5x
78.6% IRR5.7x
100% Equity 90% Debt/10% Equity
3 Years 3 Years
Value of LeverageLeverage enhances equity returns.
• Debt enhances the rate of return on an equity investment
• However, debt also increases the risk to equity holders by increasing the volatility of returns and risking debt default
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How Private Equity Firms Interact with Portfolio Companies
Value added resource to our portfolio companies.
Work with management to build a board of directors.
Jointly develop a strategic plan for achieving growth, including key resources.
Jointly establish metrics to measure performance against plan.
Analytic and investment expertise to evaluate major operating and investment decisions such as new capital investments, acquisitions or new market initiatives.
Regular communication focuses on financial and strategic metrics.
Managers seek our counsel regarding people and organizational issues.
We draw on appropriate external professional resources.
We provide opportunities for sharing of experiences across Berkshire portfolio companies.
Berkshire’s role in a portfolio company Berkshire’s interactions with a portfolio company
Firms have a range of approaches to working with portfolio companies, but often take an active role in supporting them.
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Agenda
• How and why does private equity impact you?– Why is private equity important?– How does private equity work?
• How important is the industrial sector to private equity?
• What does private equity look for in industrial companies?
• What does a private equity firm look like?
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The Industrial sector represents 13% of GDP & $3.9T of Gross Output
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
$4,000B
Segments
Power/utilities 356
Chemicals 331
Capital Equipment 314
Home building 429
GeneralManufacturing 547
Automotive 442
Energy 432
Transportation 243
Pulp/Paper 88Mining 51Pipelines 31
Aerospace 122
Building Products 228Metals 152Packaging 128
$3,894B
2003 Revenues ($B)
* Excludes truck and rail transportation** Includes: Wood and non-metallic mineral products, printing and support activities, other services (excluded Government)Source: BEA, Department of Commerce; Bain & Company
$19,733B
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
$12,500B
2003 Value Added $B (GDP)
Sectors
AgricoltureComputer/electronic productsTransp & wareh*Food/beverage, textile/apparel
Other**Arts/entert.
InformationConstruction
Wholesale tradeRetail Trade
Education/health care
Prof svcs
Industrial
Government
Finance
$11,004B
GDP(Value Added)
Industrial Sector(Gross Output)
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Other
Other rubber product mfgShip building/repairing
Other engine equipmt mfgSurgical appliance/supplies mfg
Surgical/medical instrument mfg
Machine shops
Plastics plumbing fixtures/ all other plastics products
OtherMV body mfgHD truck mfg
Tire mfg
Motorvehiclepartsmfg
Auto/lighttruck mfg
OtherDrilling oil/gas wells
Supp. activitiesoil/gas ops
Oil/gasextraction
Petroleumrefineries
New farm housunits/add's/alt's
New multifamilyhousing structures,
nonfarm
Newresidentialadditions/alterations,
nonfarm
Newresidential
1-unitstructures,nonfarm
Water, sewage/other sys
Natu
ral g
asdi
strib
utio
nPo
wer g
ener
atio
n/su
pply
Other
Organicfiber mfg
Photo film/chem mfgMisc chemprod mfg
Petrochemmfg
Soap/otherdetergent
Paint/coatingmfg
Other basicinorganic
chem
Toiletprep mfg
Plasticsmaterial/resin mfg
Otherbasic
organicchem mfg
Agri.equipmtConstruct/
miningequipmt
Electricalequipmt
Indu
stria
leq
uipm
t
FlowControl
Rail
Truck
Other
Met
alwi
nd/
door
mfg
Woo
dwi
nd/
door
mfg
Fabrstruc
mtl mfg
Glas
sex
cept
glas
sco
nt
Sheetmetal
work mfgReady-
mixconcrete
mfg
Saw-mills
Othe
r
Alum-inummfg Otherforg/stamp
Ferrousmetalfound
Iron
/ste
el m
illsOt
her
Plas
bottl
e
Metal can, box,/other container mfg
Coated/laminatedpaper/packagingmaterials
Plas
tics
pack
agin
gm
ater
ials,
film
/she
etPa
perb
oard
con
tain
er m
fg
Othe
rMiss
ile/
spac
e ve
h.Ai
rcra
ft Mfg
Airc
raft
engi
ne/
parts
Othe
rPa
per/
pape
rboa
rd m
ills
Othe
rCo
al m
inin
g Pi
pelin
e tran
sp.
Gen. Mfg Auto-motive
Energy HomeBuilding
Power/Utilities
ChemicalsCapitalEquipment
ansp
orta
tion
Build
ing
prod
ucts
Met
als
Pack
agin
gAe
rosp
ace
Pulp
/Pap
erMin
ing
Pipe
lines
547 442 432 429 356 331 314 243 228 152
128
122
88 51 31
Total =$3,894B
0
20
40
60
80
100%
2003 Revenues ($B)
Note: Revenues/Gross output represent the market value of an industry's productionSource: BEA, Department of Commerce; Bain & Company
The Industrial sector is comprised of multiple sub-segments
20
0
20
40
60
80
100%
Value of LBO deals
00
OtherHealth Care
Finl SvcsMedia
Services
CP &Retail
Tech &Tel
IndustrialProducts
&Materials
$44B
01
OtherEnergy &Utilities
Health Care
Finl Svcs
Media
Services
CP &Retail
Tech &Tel
IndustrialProducts &Materials
$25B
02
OtherEnergy & Utilities
Health CareFinl Svcs
Media
Services
CP &Retail
Tech &Tel
IndustrialProducts
&Materials
$47B
03
Other
Energy &Utilities
Health Care
Finl Svcs
Media
Services
CP &Retail
Tech & Tel
IndustrialProducts &Materials
$91B
04
OtherEnergy &Utilities
Health Care
Finl Svcs
Media
Services
CP &Retail
Tech &Tel
IndustrialProducts
&Materials
$136B
05
OtherEnergy & Utilities
Health Care
Finl SvcsMedia
Services
CP &Retail
Tech &Tel
IndustrialProducts &Materials
$194B
36%71%
174%
20%
37%
21%
63%
36%
00-05CAGR
LBO deals by industry
Source: Bain & Company
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While automotive and capital equipment were the most popular industrial LBOs from 1995-2002 …
Note: 61 LBOs did not have disclosed deal values; Other recent losers include Essex Crane Rental Corp and Profile Metals; Bain & Company
OtherJason IncAmerican Electric Auto Co Inc
Safelite Glass CorpSimpson Industries Inc
Knowles Electronics IncDelco Remy International Inc
MascoTech IncMark IV
Kumho TireTac-Trim
TRW
OtherMicron Custom ManufacturingAavid Thermal Technologies Inc
Details(Chase Capital)United Rentals Inc
Global Energy Equipment GroupWatkins-Johnson Co
P&H Material HandlingTidewater Compression Service
Juno Lighting IncAnthony Crane Rental LP
Nortek IncThermadyne Holdings Corp
Rexnord CorpTyco Intl-Pipe & Valve Op(2)
Amphenol CorpDresser Equipment Group
OtherUS Can CorpBWAY Corp
AppletonPapers Inc
HuntsmanPackaging
Corp
Tenn
eco-
Cont
aine
rboa
rd
Raytheon
Unite
dDe
fens
eNo
rthro
p Gr
umm
an-C
oml
Othe
rAr
nold
Indu
sNA
Van
Lines
Grea
t Lak
es
Dred
ge &
Doc
kAm
trol
CSX
Oth.
True
Tem
per
Neen
ahCo
rpCi
tatio
nCo
rpDa
yton
Supe
rior C
orp
Othe
rTr
emco
Inc
Atriu
m C
osOr
ius
Automotive Capital Equipment Paper,Packaging& Forest
Aero
spac
e&
Defe
nse
Dist
ribut
ion
Serv
ices
Min
ing/
met
als
Cons
truct
ion
and
build
ing
prod
ucts
$12.3B $11.9B $4.6B $2.4B $1.5
B$1
.1B
$0.6
B
Total =$35B
0
20
40
60
80
100%
Industrial deals with discloseddeal values > $50M (1995-2002)
LBO deals: 49 76 29 8 20 3523
22
0
20
40
60
80
100%
Aerospace &Defense
MTU Aero Engines
TransDigm Inc
Intelsat
Fiat Avio
Standard AeroOther
K&F Industries
DynCorp Intl
$13B
Automotive &Components
UIS: Auto Parts
Bombardier: Rec ProdtsProgress Rail Svcs
TRW: Auto Parts
Cooper-StandardAutomotive
Dana Corp's: Auto Grp
Stanadyne Corp
Advanced AccessoryEdscha
Other
Breed TechnologiesOxford AutomotiveDouglas Dynamics
$12B
DistributionSvcs
CSX Lines
Horizon Lines
Rexel SA
TDS Logistics
Other
Alpha Shirt CoBaker & Taylor
$8B
Paper,Packaging& Forest
AutobarGroup
ClondalkinGroup
BoiseCascade's
U.S.Timber-lands
Owens-Illinois:
containers
Landis Plastics
Other
KransonIndustries
DualesSystems
$6B
Mining &Metals
HorizonNatural
Resources
Rhodia:Phos-phates
Beth
lehe
mSt
eel
RAGAmericanCoal Hldg.
AutocamCorp.
RepublicEngr. Prdts
Other
Kia SteelBWAY
$6B
Maax
Formica
Ply-GemInd.
NortekHoldings
GeorgiaPac: Bldg.
Prodts
Ready MixedConcrete
Other
InfraSource
MW Mfrs.
N.ACnstrn
$6B
Capi
tal
Equi
pmen
tCul
li gan
I nt l '
Dre
sser
-Ran
dCo
A ea r
oCo r
p .
Other
BakerTanks
$3B
11 25 1713131017# LBO's
Total = $53B
Industrial deals with disclosed dealvalues > $50M (2003-1Q2005)
Cons
truc
tion
&Bu
ildin
gPr
dts
…since 2003, LBOs have been spread more equally across sectors
Source: Buyouts Magazine; Private Equity Analyst; Bain & Company
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Agenda
• How and why does private equity impact you?– Why is private equity important?– How does private equity work?
• How important is the industrial sector to private equity?
• What does private equity look for in industrial companies?
• What does a private equity firm look like?
24
Investment themes
Under-managedfull potential
• Drive full potential from under-managed / under-invested players (often carve-outs)
Profitable niches
• Identify small, profitable players with highly defensible market positions
Cyclical plays
• Time entry and exit to shifts in industry cycle
Build-ups
• Drive consolidation where scale creates differential economics
Turnarounds
• Turnaround ailing player in fundamentally stable market
Sector evolution
• Identify businesses likely to benefit from
– Product/ technology substitution
– New market segments
– Regulatory changes
– Distribution shifts
25
Investment themes
Under-managedfull potential
• Drive full potential from under-managed / under-invested players (often carve-outs)
Profitable niches
• Identify small, profitable players with highly defensible market positions
Cyclical plays
• Time entry and exit to shifts in industry cycle
Build-ups
• Drive consolidation where scale creates differential economics
Turnarounds
• Turnaround ailing player in fundamentally stable market
Sector evolution
• Identify businesses likely to benefit from
– Product/ technology substitution
– New market segments
– Regulatory changes
– Distribution shifts
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Key success factors- Build-ups
Build-ups
• Tangible cost-driven scale economies
• High-quality standalone platform
• First mover advantage
• Add-on acquisitions at the right price
• Management talent, depth, and bandwidth
29
Investment themes
Under-managedfull potential
• Drive full potential from under-managed / under-invested players (often carve-outs)
Profitable niches
• Identify small, profitable players with highly defensible market positions
Cyclical plays
• Time entry and exit to shifts in industry cycle
Build-ups
• Drive consolidation where scale creates differential economics
Turnarounds
• Turnaround ailing player in fundamentally stable market
Sector evolution
• Identify businesses likely to benefit from
– Product/ technology substitution
– New market segments
– Regulatory changes
– Distribution shifts
30
Due to its greater accumulated experience, PackCo should realize a cost advantage vs. competitors
B
PackCo
A
Cost $/M
Accumulated Experience
PackCo Experience Curve
Slope=85%
Note: Chart is in Natural Log (LN) scale
Source: Bain & Company
0.4B 0.5T$0
$88
$343
• D
• C
•E~$40MMopportunity
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Key Success Factors – Full Potential
Full Potential
• Define “full potential” using outside-in, fact-based approach
• 100 day plan ready for day one of ownership
• Focused vision; aggressive management of assets
• Invest to support and grow the business
• Challenge management and organization
34
Investment themes
Under-managedfull potential
• Drive full potential from under-managed / under-invested players (often carve-outs)
Profitable niches
• Identify small, profitable players with highly defensible market positions
Cyclical plays
• Time entry and exit to shifts in industry cycle
Build-ups
• Drive consolidation where scale creates differential economics
Turnarounds
• Turnaround ailing player in fundamentally stable market
Sector evolution
• Identify businesses likely to benefit from
– Product/ technology substitution
– New market segments
– Regulatory changes
– Distribution shifts
36
Hexcel
37
Key Success Factors – Cyclical Plays
Cyclical Plays
• Understand drivers of cyclicality
• Build robust forecast of the cycle
• Understand competitor, customer and supplier behavior through the cycle
38
Investment themes
Under-managedfull potential
• Drive full potential from under-managed / under-invested players (often carve-outs)
Profitable niches
• Identify small, profitable players with highly defensible market positions
Cyclical plays
• Time entry and exit to shifts in industry cycle
Build-ups
• Drive consolidation where scale creates differential economics
Turnarounds
• Turnaround ailing player in fundamentally stable market
Sector evolution
• Identify businesses likely to benefit from
– Product/ technology substitution
– New market segments
– Regulatory changes
– Distribution shifts
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Insights into industry changes can lead to successful investment decisions
Sector evolution
Product penetration
New product sales
Likely success
Potential disaster
40
Advanced Drainage Systems
41
Key Success Factors – Sector Evolution
Cyclical Plays
• Understand key trends affecting industry
• Realistic forecasting and scenario modeling
• Question straight-line projections of growth
• Know penetration curve and inflection point
42
Investment themes
Under-managedfull potential
• Drive full potential from under-managed / under-invested players (often carve-outs)
Profitable niches
• Identify small, profitable players with highly defensible market positions
Cyclical plays
• Time entry and exit to shifts in industry cycle
Build-ups
• Drive consolidation where scale creates differential economics
Turnarounds
• Turnaround ailing player in fundamentally stable market
Sector evolution
• Identify businesses likely to benefit from
– Product/ technology substitution
– New market segments
– Regulatory changes
– Distribution shifts
43
Ensuring there are defensible barriers to entry is critical in a niche play
ProprietaryAssets
High Switching
Cost
Heavy Prior Investment
FavorableRegulation
BestScale & Cost
Position
DefensibleNiche
• Patents• Proprietary
technology or process
• Long-term customer contracts
• No product substitutes
• Strong brand equity• Substantial capital
investments
• Licensing requirements
• National security/ environmental regulations
• Steep learning curve
• Proprietary access to low-cost inputs
Niche
44Note: Dashed lines indicate estimatesSource: Freedonia; Plastics World; Paine Webber; Company Financials; Bain & Company
Plastic Co had a highly profitable niche position in motor oil containers
PlasticCo
Motor Oil
Plastic CoTotalHDPE
Competitor 1
49%
35%
17%
0
10
20
30
40
50%
EBITDA MarginComparison(% of Sales)
Other
IHGFEDC
Plastic Co
B
A
Plastic Co
A
Other
A
Plas
tic C
o
HIC PersonalCare
Beveragesand food
Motoroil
1.3B 0.4B 1.6B 0.3B
Total = 3.5Blbs
0
20
40
60
80
100%
North American Blow-moldedHDPE Market - Total Pounds (%)
Other
E
F
Other
A
B
Plastic Co
Niche
46
Key Success Factors – Niche
Cyclical Plays
• Differentiate defensible niche vs. “bubbles”
• Identify switching costs for customers
• Evaluate adjacent niche businesses
• Know upside and exit opportunities
• Cost and cash management across value chain
47
Investment themes
Under-managedfull potential
• Drive full potential from under-managed / under-invested players (often carve-outs)
Profitable niches
• Identify small, profitable players with highly defensible market positions
Cyclical plays
• Time entry and exit to shifts in industry cycle
Build-ups
• Drive consolidation where scale creates differential economics
Turnarounds
• Turnaround ailing player in fundamentally stable market
Sector evolution
• Identify businesses likely to benefit from
– Product/ technology substitution
– New market segments
– Regulatory changes
– Distribution shifts
48
ElectroMotive Diesel
49
Key Success Factors – Turnarounds
Cyclical Plays
• Focus on core strategic platforms
• Act quickly to get control
• Exit unprofitable, non-core business
• Look to balance sheet for value
• Seek proven operators with turnaround experience
• Align management and staff incentives
50
Agenda
• How and why does private equity impact you?– Why is private equity important?– How does private equity work?
• How important is the industrial sector to private equity?
• What does private equity look for in industrial companies?
• What does a private equity firm look like?
51
Berkshire’s investments have been concentrated in six areas in both the U.S. and overseas.
Percent of invested capitalas of 12.31.05 Transportation: 12%
Communications: 10%
Business services: 19%
Other: 1%
Industrial manufacturing: 18%
Retailing: 25%
Consumer products: 15%
Berkshire Partners Overview
52
31%
21%
15%
10%4%9%
10%
Berkshire Partners Overview
Fund VI Investor Base - Representative Investors
Berkshire has experienced tremendous continuity in its investor base. Berkshire’s team invests significantly alongside our investors in each transaction we complete.
University Endowments:Dartmouth Harvard M.I.T.Univ. of MichiganUniv. of PennsylvaniaPrincetonStanford The CommonFundWilliams Yale
Special Relationships:Berkshire CEOs, etc.Other entrepreneurs
Foundations:Carnegie FoundationFord FoundationHewlett FoundationHoward Hughes Medical InstituteInvestment Fund for FoundationsRobert Wood Johnson FoundationMetropolitan Museum of ArtRockefeller Foundation
Insurance:AIG Global New York Life Northwestern Mutual Life
Pensions:Calpers/Grove StreetEDSIBM L.A. County EmployeesLockheed Martin Massachusetts PRIMState of Michigan Employees
Financial Institutions: Adams Street PartnersBank of AmericaGE CapitalGoldman SachsHarbourVest Partners
Non U.S. Institutions:Allianz Government of SingaporeOntario Municipal EmployeesWellcome Trust
53
Berkshire consistently exits its investments with management’s full support.
Full realizationsas of 12.31.05
Recapitalizations /sales to management: 10
Initial public offerings: 11
Sales to strategic buyers: 26
Sales to financial buyers: 8
Berkshire Partners Types of Exit
54
Berkshire Partners Portfolio Companies
55
Not Touched byPrivate Equity
30.0%
Touched by Private Equity70.0%