The Indian Voter in 2014 - Carnegie Endowment for...
Transcript of The Indian Voter in 2014 - Carnegie Endowment for...
TheIndianVoterin2014
DeveshKapurNeelanjanSircarMilanVaishnav
March25,2014
The“LokSurveys”
• Why?– TounderstandthesocialandpoliBcalreconfiguraBonstakingplaceacrossIndiatoday
• What?– MulB‐year,panelsurveyof65,000households
• How?– Piggy‐backoffquarterlyCMIE“ConsumerPyramids”survey
• When?– Biannually
Surveycalendar
Q4‐2013:
Pre‐elecBonsurvey
Q1‐2014:
“AspiraBons&AnxieBes”
Q3‐2014:
Post‐elecBonsurvey
Keyfindings
• Theelectoralhorse‐race
• FivemythsabouttheIndianvoter?– RegionalparBesaresurging– Goodeconomics≠goodpoliBcs– VotersarefedupwithdynasBes
– LackofinformaBonbreedscriminality– Voteyourcaste,notcastyourvote
Theelectoralhorse‐race
TheboFomline
EsBmated2014voteshare*
UPA 23%
NDA 31%
*LokSurveyconductedbetweenOct‐Dec2013
TheboFomline
CSDS(7/2013)
Lok(4Q/2013)
CSDS(1/2014)
HT‐Cvoter(1/2014)
Times‐Cvoter(1/2014)
ABP‐Nielsen(2/2014)
UPA 29% 23% 28% 23% 22% 23%
NDA 29% 31% 36% 34% 36% 31%
BigGainsforNDA
*Note:LokSurvey;MaharashtraandPunjabprojecBonsincludecoaliBonpartners
8%12%
11%15%
7%11%
6%9%
0%‐7%
13%5%
9%23%
0%
WBUPTNRAJPUNORIMPMAHKERKARHARGUJCTGBIHAP
BigLossesforUPA
*LokSurvey;MaharashtraandKeralaincludecoaliBonpartners
4%‐9%
‐3%‐10%
‐8%0%
‐9%‐7%
‐4%1%
‐22%‐6%
‐13%9%
‐22%
WBUPTNRAJPUNORIMP
MAHKERKARHARGUJCTGBIHAP
Urban‐ruraldifferences
24%22% 23% 24%
28%
33%
27%
32%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Ruralilliterate Ruralliterate Urbanilliterate Urbanliterate
UPA NDA
Voteshare(%
)
Source:LokFoundaBon
Socialbasesofsupport
19% 21% 21%
31%35%
42%
35%
25%23%
12%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
UpperCaste OBC SC ST Muslims
UPA NDA
Voteshare(%
)
Source:LokFoundaBon
Actualseatsharewilldependon:
• Campaigneffects
• Candidates
• Alliances
1.Areregionalpar4esrising?
RelaTveVoteShareInIndia’sNaTonalElecTons
Source:ElecBonCommissionofIndia
All‐IndiavoteshareesTmates
CSDS(7/2013)
Lok(4Q/2013)
CSDS(1/2014)
HT‐Cvoter(1/2014)
Times‐Cvoter(1/2014)
ABP‐Nielsen(2/2014)
UPA 29% 23% 28% 23% 22% 23%
NDA 29% 31% 36% 34% 36% 31%
UPA+NDA 58% 54% 54% 57% 58% 54%
Reversaloffortune?
31.5
2321.5
31
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2009(actual) 2014(projected)*
UPA NDA
Voteshare(%
)
Source:LokFoundaBon
2.Goodeconomics≠goodpoli4cs
Theeconomydominates
25%
21%
18%
14%
8% 7%5%
3%
EconomicGrowth
CorrupBon InflaBon PersonalIncome
LawandOrder
AccesstoGovt
Benefits
Leadership IdenBty
Source:LokFoundaBon
Growth:largestate‐levelvariaTon%ofrespo
nden
tsinflu
encedbygrowth 43% 43%
41%38%
32% 31%28%
22%21% 20%
19%17%
13%
7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
CTG PUN GUJ WB RAJ TN KER KAR AP MP HAR MAH UP BIH
Source:LokFoundaBon
TopelecTonissue,bystate
Kerala 43% Chhaosgarh 43% Maharashtra 29%
Bihar 40% Punjab 43% Haryana 25%
UparPradesh 33% Gujarat 41%
AndhraPradesh 26% WestBengal 38%MadhyaPradesh 25% Rajasthan 32%
TamilNadu 31%
Karnataka 22%
CorrupBon Economicgrowth InflaBon/pricerise
Source:LokFoundaBon
AreMuslimvotersdifferent?
9%
14%
21%
3%
21%
7%4%
22%
7%
14%
21%
3%
18%
8%
5%
25%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
AccesstoGovt
PersonalIncome
CorrupBon IdenBty InflaBon LawandOrder
Leadership EconomicGrowth
Muslims All‐India
Source:LokFoundaBon
Bharatvs.India?
9%
16%
19%
2%
19%
8%
4%
23%
5%
12%
23%
4%
17%
6% 6%
27%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
AccesstoGovt
PersonalIncome
CorrupBon IdenBty InflaBon LawandOrder
LeadershipEconomicGrowth
rural urban
Source:LokFoundaBon
3.Arevotersfedupwithdynas4es?
DynasTcismamongMPs
20%
80%
2004
DynasBcBes
NodynasBcBes
29%
71%
2009
DynasBcBes
NodynasBcBes
Source:KanchanChandraandAnjaliThomasBohlken
DynasTcpreference?
54
46
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
No Yes
%prefertovotefordynasBccand
idate
Source:LokFoundaBon
WhyvoterspreferdynasTes
Reason Percent
Better at doing politics because it is their occupation
45%
Likely to succeed because of greater exposure to politics 40%
Makes it easier to deliver services 15%
Source:LokFoundaBon
4.Lackofinforma4onbreedscriminality
Lawmakersandlaw‐breakers?
Source:Vaishnav(2014)
%ofLokSabhaM
embe
rsofP
arliamen
t
15%
19%
24%
30%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2004 2009
Seriouscharge Minorcharge
Uncoveringsupportforcriminalcandidates
26%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
DirectQuesBon%willingtovoteforcand
idatewith
seriouscharges
Source:LokFoundaBon
HOWMANYofthefollowingcandidatestroubleyou?
ControlGroup
1. WealthyCandidate2. PoorCandidate3. IndependentCandidate
ExperimentalGroup
1. WealthyCandidate2. PoorCandidate3. IndependentCandidate
HOWMANYofthefollowingcandidatestroubleyou?
ControlGroup
1. WealthyCandidate2. PoorCandidate3. IndependentCandidate
ExperimentalGroup
1. WealthyCandidate2. PoorCandidate3. IndependentCandidate4. Candidatewithserious
criminalcharges
Uncoveringsupportforcriminalcandidates
48%
26%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
ListExperiment DirectQuesBon%willingtovoteforcand
idatewith
seriouscharges
Source:LokFoundaBon
Supportvs.prevalence
AP
BIH
CTG
GUJ
HAR
KAR
KER
MAH
MP
ORI
PUN
RAJTN UP
WB
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
Supp
ortforcan
dida
tes
withseriou
scharges
2009CandidateswithseriouscriminalchargesSource:LokFoundaBon;ADR
5.Voteyourcaste,notcastyourvote
IdenTtyranks8/8
25%
21%
18%
14%
8% 7%5%
3%
EconomicGrowth
CorrupBon InflaBon PersonalIncome
LawandOrder
AccesstoGovt
Benefits
Leadership IdenBty
Source:LokFoundaBon
Casteandvotechoice46%
36%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Co‐ethnicaffinity Ethnicbias
%ofrespo
nden
tsdem
onstraBn
g“bias”
Source:LokFoundaBon
HOWMANYstatementstroubleyou?
ControlGroup
• Acorruptcandidatewins• Anuneducatedcandidate
wins
• Aneducatedcandidatewins
ExperimentalGroup
• Acorruptcandidatewins• Anuneducatedcandidate
wins
• Aneducatedcandidatewins• An[UpperCaste/OBC/SC]
candidatewins
UncoveringcastediscriminaTon
36%
57%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Ethnicbias(direct) Ethnicbias(list)
%ofrespo
nden
tsdem
onstraBn
g“bias”
Source:LokFoundaBon
IdenTtypredictsvotechoice,notelectoraloutcomes
26%
42%
25%
35%
17%
25%23% 23%
9%12%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2009
2014
2009
2014
2009
2014
2009
2014
2009
2014
UpperCaste OBC SC ST Muslim
%ofrespo
nden
tsvoB
ngfo
rNDA
Source:LokFoundaBon
Conclusion
• Indiansocietyischangingand,withit,thepreferencesofIndianvoters
• WhilethemajorityofIndiaremainsrural,ruralIndiaisincreasinglyshapedbyurbansensibiliBes– Classicrural‐urbandivideisgeongblurred
• SocialbiasconBnuestobeendemicinIndia– However,thesebiasesaffectthelevelsofpoliBcal
supportbasedonsocialidenBBes,notchanges
Conclusion(cont’d)
• ThechangesinvoBngbehaviorarebeingdrivenmainlybyeconomicfactorsandgovernance
• ThiselecBonisclearlyavoteforchange.PotenBallyitisapivotalelecBonthatcouldfundamentallyaffectIndia'strajectory
• …ButwewillnotreallynotknowthatunBlmid‐May!
Thankyou
Web: hpp://indiaintransiBon.com
hpp://carnegieendowment.org
Twiper: @MilanV
@NeelanjanSircar
Print: SundayTimesofIndia
“IndianVoter:InsideandOut”