The Increasing Costs of The Increasing Costs of DevelopmentDevelopment

--Threats to China’s BiodiversityThreats to China’s Biodiversity--

Benjamin AndersonBenjamin AndersonKaitlin DoddsKaitlin DoddsAmanda RibeiroAmanda Ribeiro

Environ 111Environ 111GSI: Menan JanguGSI: Menan Jangu

Biodiversity

Population Growth

UrbanizationEnergy

Consumption

Deforestation

Let’s Investigate…Let’s Investigate…

• 1949: The end of a revolution…

• Increased health standards…

• Population Hiccups…

Source: “Data Population Growth.” IIASA. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/ChinaFood/data/pop/p_23c_m.htm

China's Total Population by Sex and Age, Census 1990

• Pre-1958: China’s economy is based on agricultural production

• Great Leap Forward– Goal: Surpass Britain’s industrial

output by 1972– Method: Focus on steel

production and coal and energy output

• Industrial yields increased…

• China’s agricultural production decreased…

• Massive demographic shock…

Effects of the Great Leap Forward (Crude Birth and

Death Rate, 1949-1996)

Source: “Data Population Growth.” IIASA. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/ChinaFood/data/pop/pop_10.htm

Biodiversity

Population Growth

Urbanization

EnergyConsumptio

n

Deforestation

• Why the Change?– The Great Leap

Forward?– Cultural Revolution?– Deng Xiaoping?

• Rapid Urbanization: 1990-2000

Source: ArcGIS data

• Urbanization: It’s Contagious

• Robert Blair: “Birds and Butterflies Along an Urban Gradient

Expansion of the Urban Sector in China

Source: Pannell, Clifton and Jeffrey S. Torguson. “Interpreting Spatial Patterns from the 1990 China Census”. Geographical Review. Vol. 81, No. 3. (July 1991), p. 309

Biodiversity

Population Growth

Urbanization

EnergyConsumptio

n

Deforestation

“The increase in per capita energy use prior to the last two decades of the 20th century is related to the evolving nature of societies as they move from primitive, to agricultural, to industrial, and then to technological.”James Galloway (1998: 18)

Pictures: Microsoft PowerPoint Clip Art

• China: Before Mao to Now

• Powering the nation… with COAL!!!

China's Coal Production and Consumption, 1984-2004

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004Year

Mil

lio

n S

ho

rt T

on

s

Production

Consumption

Source: EIA International Energy Annual

• China contributes the second largest amount of carbon emissions.

• Emissions are still growing!!!

Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Activites, 2004

U.S.22%

FSU9%

Japan5%

Europe17%

Rest of World30%

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal

China17%

Source: EIA International Energy Annual

Total Emmissions China: 4.7 billion metric tons World: 27 billion metric tons

Biodiversity

Population Growth

Urbanization

EnergyConsumptio

n

Deforestation

• China is one of the world’s major centers of biodiversity *– Forests have a rich array of species – China possesses ~2,800 tree species *

• China’s forests and biodiversity have long been under threat due to logging and hunting, as well as the “conversion of habitats to form fields and human settlements.” *

• At least eight large mammal species are thought to have been exterminated since imperial times*

* Harkness, James. Recent Trends in Forestry and Conservation of Biodiversity in China. The China Quarterly, No. 156, Special Issue: China’s Environment. (Dec., 1998), pp. 911-934.

……on China’s Biodiversityon China’s Biodiversity

• High rate of deforestation (~1.2% per year)**

• Problems with Protected Areas:– Remoteness and poverty of regions– Poorly paid and trained staff– Gaps in protected area system

• Poor regeneration– “estimated that due to inappropriate

logging practices, one-third of all forests cut before 1979 were replaced by degraded mountain slopes” *

– Replanting “green deserts”• Lack of biological diversity *

*Harkness, James. Recent Trends in Forestry and Conservation of Biodiversity in China. The China Quarterly, No. 156, Special Issue: China’s Environment. (Dec., 1998), pp. 911-934. <http://www.jstor.org/view/03057410/ap020147/02a00100/0>.

**Li, Jing-Neng. “Comment: Population Effects on Deforestation and Soil Erosion in China.” Population and Development Review, Vol. 16, Supplement: Resources, Environment, and Population: Present Knowledge, Future Opinions. (1990), pp. 254-258. <http://www.jstor.org/view/00987921/dm993995/99p0118j/0>.

Biodiversity

Population Growth

Urbanization

EnergyConsumptio

n

Deforestation

• In China, we have seen that…– Population keeps growing– Urbanization keeps growing– Carbon emissions keep increasing– China is committed to addressing failures,

such as its commitment to replanting forests.

• Threats to Biodiversity– Population Growth…– Affluence…

• China has experienced rapid growth in its economic sector in conjunction with rapid growth in energy consumption

• During the economic slowdown in the late 1990s… China saw energy and CO2 emissions decline.

– Counteract Affluence…• Garbaccio et al.

– Possible to control carbon emissions through taxation.

References• “An Energy Summary of China.” Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum. 7 April 2007.

<http://www.cslforum.org/china.htm>.• Blair, Robert B.  “Birds and Butterflies along an Urban Gradient:  Surrogate Taxa for Assessing

Biodiversity.”  Ecological Applications.  Vol. 9.  Iss. 1.  (Feb, 1999), pp. 164-170.• “China: Environmental Issues.” Energy Information Administration. 7 April 2007.

<http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/chinaenv.html>.• “Data Population Growth.” IIASA. 7 April 2007

<http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/ChinaFood/iiasa_1.htm>.• Galloway, James N. “The Global Nitrogen Cycle: Changes and Consequences.” Environmental Pollution.

102, S1 (1998), pp. 15-24.• Garbaccio et al. “Controlling Carbon Emissions in China.” Environment and Development Economics 4

(1999): 493–518• Harkness, James. Recent Trends in Forestry and Conservation of Biodiversity in China. • The China Quarterly, No. 156, Special Issue: China’s Environment. (Dec., 1998), • pp. 911-934.• Joseph, William A.  “A Tragedy of Good Intentions: Post-Mao Views of the Great Leap Forward.”  Modern

China.  Vol. 12.  Iss. 4.  (Oct., 1986), pp. 419-457. • Li, Jing-Neng. “Comment: Population Effects on Deforestation and Soil Erosion in • China.” Population and Development Review, Vol. 16, Supplement: Resources, • Environment, and Population: Present Knowledge, Future Opinions. (1990), • pp. 254-258.• Ma, Laurence J. C. “Urban Transformation in China, 1949-2000: A Review and Research Agenda.”

Environment and Planning. Vol. 34. (9 Jan 2002), pp. 1545-1569.• McKinney, Michael L. “Urbanization, Biodiversity, and Conservation.” Bio Science. Vol. 52, Iss. 10.