The importance of preschool education for child developmentand international experiences in

expanding coverage

Presentation by Jan van Ravens at the conference on:“Investing in Early Childhood Education in Serbia”

25 September 2012

Hotel Park, Belgrade

Economics of Early Childhood “On a purely economic basis, it makes a lot of sense to invest in the young… Early learning begets later learning. And early success breeds later success.”

--James J. Heckman, Ph.D.Nobel Prize LaureateEconomist

Ramey & Ramey (1999). American Psychologist. Engle, P. (2005). Developmental Readiness.

Early Intervention and Early Childhood

Approach 1: comparing countries

• This analysis was published in the leading journal The Lancet (23 September 2011)

• Authors compared low and middle income countries with a total of 2.7 billion inhabitants

• Used three scenarios: 25% , 35% or 50% increase in preschool enrolment

• Estimated the gains in terms of educational attainment and, from there, of GNP growth

• And found a benefit to cost ratio of 6.4 to 17.6 (depending on initial preschool enrolment; on discount rate; and on which scenario)

Approach 2: comparing childrenA preschool program in the USA

Comparing treatment group and control group Benefit to cost ratio of 17, by the age of 40

Benefits and costs per participant in US$ (constant 2000) and with 3% discount rate

$15.166

$0 $50.000 $100.000 $150.000 $200.000 $250.000 $300.000

Costs

Benefits

Total return = $258,888; $17.07 per dollar invested: $12.90 to the public, $4.17 to participants

Welfare Education Earnings Taxes paid Crime

Disadvantaged children benefit most

A quick look into the “Black Box”

Looking to the West......For Serbia: enrolment in pre-primary in 2009 at ages 3-5.5: 48%

For EU-countries: enrolment in pre-primary among 3 and 4 year olds in 2005-2006.For UK: only 3 year olds. At age 4, 90% of children are either in pre-primary or primary

... and looking to the EastEnrolment at ages 3-6 by GDP per capita

Note: from international data-base. Data for Serbia may differ from national sources.

Wealth disparities(% children 36-59 months attending early education)

Short programs seem 4 to 6 times less costly than full-day programs

Currency Unit cost full-day

Unit cost half-day

Ratio:full / half

Armenia US$ 216 34.2 6.32

Kyrgyzstan Som 6010 1670 3.60

Macedonia Denar 71590 11139 6.43

Poland Zloty 4500 1200 3.75

Short or Fullday: some examples

• Kyrgyzstan: rapid expansion of short programs, initiated by NGOs but taken ove by Government

• Poland: “where there are no Preschools”• Big differences in West-Europe, for example:– Belgium. From age 2.5 onwards: fullday care in

small groups with close to 100% enrolment in public institutions. Same in France and Italy.

– Netherlands. Only from age 4: school-based program of 5 hours per day on average in large groups. No meals or beds. Childcare mainly private. Special programs for disadvantaged.

How to finance scale up

• Expand gradually: first from age 4, then from age 3

• Use existing preschool budget:– Raise efficiency– Raise full-day fee selectively (social justice)

• Use ‘demographic dividend’:– Use existing space in schools– Retrain primary teachers

Main conclusions

• Serbia has every chance to expand coverage of preschool education, provided that we:–promote enrolment in short programs, and– convince parents who do not need daycare

• Serbia should first focus on the poorest but eventually aim at universal coverage:– 48% of the children are already on board!– children in the middle groups benefit as well

(A Vision for Universal Preschool Education. Zigler, Gilliam and Jones, 2006)